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Jamie I

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Jan 16, 2023
19
67
In macOS 15.1 beta, there’s a system file that contains a bunch of device identifiers. Among these, there are 12 M4 Mac identifiers and 2 M5 Mac identifiers.

M4 Macs
Mac16,1
Mac16,2
Mac16,3
Mac16,5
Mac16,6
Mac16,7
Mac16,8
Mac16,9
Mac16,10
Mac16,11
Mac16,12
Mac16,13

M5 Macs
Mac17,1
Mac17,2


My personal predictions

12 M4 Macs
1. 14" M4 MacBook Pro
2. 14" M4 Pro MacBook Pro
3. 14" M4 Max MacBook Pro
4. 16" M4 Pro MacBook Pro
5. 16" M4 Max MacBook Pro
6. M4 Mac Mini
7. M4 Pro Mac Mini
8. M4 Max Mac Studio
9. M4 Ultra Mac Studio
10. M4 Ultra Mac Pro
11. 24" M4 iMac (2 ports)
12. 24" M4 iMac (4 ports)

2 M5 Macs
1. 13" M5 MacBook Air
2. 15" M5 MacBook Air



My timeline prediction

October 2024 event
- M4, M4 Pro Mac mini
- M4 Max, M4 Ultra Mac Studio
- M4 Ultra Mac Pro

January 2025 press release
- 14" M4 MacBook Pro
- 14" and 16" M4 Pro, M4 Max MacBook Pro
- 24" M4 iMac

WWDC25
- 13" and 15" M5 MacBook Air

I hope my predictions are correct but obviously it could be completely wrong. There are several different possibilities, and I understand that many of you may not agree with my predictions

However, I’m curious to know what you all think about these identifiers and I'd love to see you guys speculate and make your own predictions about these findings.
 

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russell_314

macrumors 604
Feb 10, 2019
6,658
10,259
USA
I’m just curious, but how do you know the two are M5 rather than some version of M4?

Wouldn’t they wait for the next version of macOS to release M5?
 
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cwwilson

macrumors 68000
Jan 27, 2009
1,923
1,536
Oklahoma City, OK
So you are thinking that the MacBook Air would be skipping the M4 and going to M5 next year? The M4 works wonderfully in the iPad Pro so I'd find it weird if it didn't make it into the MBA and lets not forget that the Air has had all three generations of the M-series chips so far.
 

Pressure

macrumors 603
May 30, 2006
5,178
1,544
Denmark
I’m just curious, but how do you know the two are M5 rather than some version of M4?

Wouldn’t they wait for the next version of macOS to release M5?
Because those model identifiers have been present since the release of the Mac Studio.

Mac13,1 = Mac Studio (M1 Max)
Mac13,2 = Mac Studio (M1 Ultra)

All M2 based Macs are starting with Mac14,x.
All M3 based Macs are starting with Mac15,x.

Therefore we expect future models to adhere to this same pattern.

Mac16,x = M4 series.
Mac17,x = M5 series.
 

Chuckeee

macrumors 68040
Aug 18, 2023
3,060
8,721
Southern California

In macOS 15.1 beta, there’s a system file that contains a bunch of device identifiers. Among these, there are 12 M4 Mac identifiers and 2 M5 Mac identifiers.

M4 Macs
Mac16,1
Mac16,2
Mac16,3
Mac16,5
Mac16,6
Mac16,7
Mac16,8
Mac16,9
Mac16,10
Mac16,11
Mac16,12
Mac16,13

M5 Macs
Mac17,1
Mac17,2


My personal predictions

12 M4 Macs
1. 14" M4 MacBook Pro
2. 14" M4 Pro MacBook Pro
3. 14" M4 Max MacBook Pro
4. 16" M4 Pro MacBook Pro
5. 16" M4 Max MacBook Pro
6. M4 Mac Mini
7. M4 Pro Mac Mini
8. M4 Max Mac Studio
9. M4 Ultra Mac Studio
10. M4 Ultra Mac Pro
11. 24" M4 iMac (2 ports)
12. 24" M4 iMac (4 ports)

2 M5 Macs
1. 13" M5 MacBook Air
2. 15" M5 MacBook Air



My timeline prediction

October 2024 event
- M4, M4 Pro Mac mini
- M4 Max, M4 Ultra Mac Studio
- M4 Ultra Mac Pro

January 2025 press release
- 14" M4 MacBook Pro
- 14" and 16" M4 Pro, M4 Max MacBook Pro
- 24" M4 iMac

WWDC25
- 13" and 15" M5 MacBook Air

I hope my predictions are correct but obviously it could be completely wrong. There are several different possibilities, and I understand that many of you may not agree with my predictions

However, I’m curious to know what you all think about these identifiers and I'd love to see you guys speculate and make your own predictions about these findings.
I find your speculations rational and reasonable. What makes your prediction believable is the exclusion of fantasy configurations that others keep mentioning:
-12” MacBook
-Mac Extreme
-Large (27”+) iMac
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
2 M5 Macs
1. 13" M5 MacBook Air
2. 15" M5 MacBook Air
Why do you think they are Macbook Airs and no M4 Macbook Air?

The Air is Apple's best seller.

Edit: For what it's worth, Gurman just said he expects most Macs to get released in Q4 2024 but the Airs will get released in 2025.
 
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Populus

macrumors 603
Aug 24, 2012
5,928
8,404
Spain, Europe
  • Mac17,3
  • Mac Pro Cube
  • M5 Extreme SiP (2nm)
  • 64-core CPU (24P/40E)
  • 256-core GPU
  • 128-core Neural Engine
  • 1.92TB LPDDR5X RAM (inline ECC)
  • 2.16TB/s UMA bandwidth
  • 32TB SSD (4@8TB NAND blades)
  • 10Gb Ethernet
  • Thunderbolt 5
  • USB4 Gen2
  • WiFi 7
  • Bluetooth 5.4
So, do you think the M5 macs will still come with LPDDR5(x) memory? I mean, I think it’s about time to switch to the LPDDR6 RAM, it’s expected towards the end of this year or maybe early 2025…
 

wmy5

macrumors 6502
Oct 27, 2012
367
97
upstate NY
Gurman said no Mac Studio until mid-2025. I would be very surprised if Mac mini and Mac Studio is refreshed ahead of MacBook Pro...


My timeline prediction:

October 2024 event
- M4/M4 Pro Mac mini
- 24" M4 iMac
- 14"/16" M4/M4 Pro/M4 Max MacBook Pro

March 2025 event
- 13" and 15" M4 MacBook Air

WWDC25
- M4 Max, M4 Ultra Mac Studio
- M4 Ultra Mac Pro
 
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sublunar

macrumors 68020
Jun 23, 2007
2,311
1,680
The M5 MacBook Air (launched before every other M5 model) in March 2025 is credible given the M3 only arrived in March this year, months after the Pro models got upgraded). It would give the M3 Air about a year on sale before the refresh.

If Apple are willing to hold on to M3 until March I can understand it but it remains to be seen if M4 Max and Ultra models could be delayed until summer 2025 if the M4 and M4 Pro CPUs were out the October before in the Mini and iMac. There's nothing to stop Apple to launching the refresh in October or March (with the Air). It depends how urgent their objective of getting the M3 out of the supply chain is.

I would also suggest that there's not going to be significant design changes - too soon so far for that unless M4 brings extra IO possibilities that Apple wish to utilise fully.
 

tenthousandthings

Contributor
May 14, 2012
274
318
New Haven, CT
I find your speculations rational and reasonable. What makes your prediction believable is the exclusion of fantasy configurations that others keep mentioning:
-12” MacBook
-Mac Extreme
-Large (27”+) iMac
I’d be curious about the @Jamie I prediction of two different 24" iMacs. His is the only account I follow here, so mad respect, but a two-port M4 iMac (all M3 iMacs have four ports) seems sort of an odd thing to predict…

I guess it’s like you say, wanting to avoid fantasies about product launches. [I’m guilty, as you know.] But it’s undeniable there’s an extra identifier in relation to the current lineup, assuming 17,1 and 17,2 are the MacBook Air.
 

Chuckeee

macrumors 68040
Aug 18, 2023
3,060
8,721
Southern California
I’d be curious about the @Jamie I prediction of two different 24" iMacs. His is the only account I follow here, so mad respect, but a two-port M4 iMac (all M3 iMacs have four ports) seems sort of an odd thing to predict…
I was under the impression that there are currently 2 24” M3 iMac configurations: Mac15,4 (2 ports) and Mac15,5 (4 ports). The corresponding model numbers being A2874 and A2873. Thus assuming M4 updates to both of these current M3 configurations seems perfectly reasonable to me.
 
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tenthousandthings

Contributor
May 14, 2012
274
318
New Haven, CT
I was under the impression that there are currently 2 24” M3 iMac configurations: Mac15,4 (2 ports) and Mac15,5 (4 ports). The corresponding model numbers being A2874 and A2873. Thus assuming M4 updates to both of these current M3 configurations seems perfectly reasonable to me.
Right you are! So there’s no extra identifier… 😳 🙈

All present and accounted for!
 
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prime17569

macrumors regular
May 26, 2021
207
524
A two-port M4 iMac would definitely be odd considering that per the die shot analysis, the M4 has four Thunderbolt controllers, up from two in all previous base M chip generations. They wouldn't add two extra Thunderbolt controllers just to leave them unused.
 
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streetfunk

macrumors member
Feb 9, 2023
82
41
They wouldn't add two extra Thunderbolt controllers just to leave them unused.
they´d absolutely do that.

manufacture just one board to be put into as many products as possible ?
isn´t that what every consultant would tell you to do ?

i expect the small mac mini to have only two TB ports either.

it´s finally apple.
and the world is finally what it has become
 

cjsuk

macrumors 6502a
Apr 30, 2024
613
2,252
AFAIK the TB interface is on die. They might just not bother with the retimer IC.

As for an M4 Pro Mini, I will buy this the second it comes out. Hopefully 18Gb of RAM...
 

tenthousandthings

Contributor
May 14, 2012
274
318
New Haven, CT
they´d absolutely do that.

manufacture just one board to be put into as many products as possible ?
isn´t that what every consultant would tell you to do ?

i expect the small mac mini to have only two TB ports either. […]
It’s already a configuration that allows for flaws in one or two of the GPU cores (a.k.a. “binned” chips), so add to that rescued inventory chips with flaws in one or two of the TB controllers.

So yes, Apple is going to do it. Less waste silicon in the recycling bin.
 
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EugW

macrumors G5
Jun 18, 2017
14,878
12,854
I would also suggest that there's not going to be significant design changes - too soon so far for that unless M4 brings extra IO possibilities that Apple wish to utilise fully.
M4 brings extra IO possibilities, as it apparently has 4 Thunderbolt controllers (as opposed to 2 in M1/M2/M3). Because of this, some of us had previously in other threads been talking about more TB/USB4 ports on the M4 Mac mini, hoping for 4 but expecting at least 3.


And now Gurman is saying the next Mac mini will have at least 3 USB-C ports.

 

Chuckeee

macrumors 68040
Aug 18, 2023
3,060
8,721
Southern California
M4 brings extra IO possibilities, as it apparently has 4 Thunderbolt controllers (as opposed to 2 in M1/M2/M3). Because of this, some of us had previously in other threads been talking about more TB/USB4 ports on the M4 Mac mini, hoping for 4 but expecting at least 3.


And now Gurman is saying the next Mac mini will have at least 3 USB-C ports.

It would be nice, if at least one is located on the front.
 
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