Ever since the M3 Pro, I have the fealing that Apple has building blocks to put together a chip. CPU, NPU, GPU, I/O, etc.If the Ultra chips haven’t all been snapped up by Apple’s data centre?
Why so little news about M5?
M4 is out for a while and according OP there are already M5 identifier. Would expect more rumors about M5.Why are you expecting M5 news? M4 line hasn’t really been filled yet.
I am curious to see how Gurman times it, my guess is he will stay silent about it until early 2025, when he will use it ahead of whatever event or press release they have scheduled.M4 is out for a while and according OP there are already M5 identifier. Would expect more rumors about M5.
I have a hunch that Apple can now introduce a yearly schedule for its Mx devices. Considering the iPad Pro’s schedule of one and a half years, I anticipate seeing numerous M5 devices in October 2025.M4 is out for a while and according OP there are already M5 identifier. Would expect more rumors about M5.
Gurman said no Mac Studio until mid-2025. I would be very surprised if Mac mini and Mac Studio is refreshed ahead of MacBook Pro...
Gurman: No New Mac Studio and Mac Pro Until Mid-2025
Apple will not refresh the Mac Studio and Mac Pro with next-generation high-end chips until the middle of 2025, according to Bloomberg's Mark...www.macrumors.com
My timeline prediction:
October 2024 event
- M4/M4 Pro Mac mini
- 24" M4 iMac
- 14"/16" M4/M4 Pro/M4 Max MacBook Pro
March 2025 event
- 13" and 15" M4 MacBook Air
WWDC25
- M4 Max, M4 Ultra Mac Studio
- M4 Ultra Mac Pro
i think thats from M3, so its even olderThe GPU of M4 introduced hardware-accelerated ray tracing.
It is possible, even likely, that the lack of an M3 Ultra is a result of a decision by TSMC to not support InFO (Integrated Fan-Out) advanced packaging (used for UltraFusion) for the first-generation 3nm process.One of the points for ditching Intel was to be able bring new processor updates quicker to market.
The GPU of M4 introduced hardware-accelerated ray tracing.
Studio is targeted at high powered video editing on the desktop.
So why leave it out from getting that hardware-accelerated ray tracing for more than a year?
By WWDC2025 we'll probably be at M5 and 3 generations on from where Studio is now.
I suspect if it is delayed that long it'll be as a sacrifice to the cash cows of MBP, Mini, iMac, Air etc.
TSMC will no doubt be churning out base M4, Pro & Max.
Could they ditch Ultra to update Studio if there's no capacity for that highly specialised chip?
I suspect it's the Ultra chip fab that holds back Studio if anything is.
How much of the Mac line up refresh is now dictated by TSMC's capacity, tooling and costs?
According to this article back in May N3E was in volume production that coincided with M4 for iPad Pro launch with N3P scheduled for 2nd half of 2024.It is possible, even likely, that the lack of an M3 Ultra is a result of a decision by TSMC to not support InFO (Integrated Fan-Out) advanced packaging (used for UltraFusion) for the first-generation 3nm process.
If so, it explains a lot. If Ultra was never in the cards for M3, then Apple was free to experiment with other things, like two different memory bandwidths for M3 Max, as well as to focus on GPU features in M3, as you mentioned (note your “M4” typo).
But that would, then, just be a one-off. N3E and N3P support the full range of TSMC’s advanced-packaging technologies, so UltraFusion for M4 Max and M5 Max is probably in the cards. Plus, there’s no reason to think N2 and beyond won’t also support it.
Apple may be TSMC’s only customer that is using the InFO chip-first approach to advanced packaging, but InFO is also being incorporated into chip-last designs used by Nvidia, AMD, and so on. So there are plenty of incentives to invest in that approach, even if it is (apparently) unique to Apple in terms of actual, shipping products.
EDIT to add a comment on your last question, a very good question. I don’t think we know, but obviously it’s dependent on it, if not truly “dictated” by it. TSMC’s partnership with Apple is longstanding, disruptive, and highly valuable, and we can probably be certain, for example, that Apple would be involved on the highest levels in a strategic decision affecting them, like the one mentioned above.
One thing I’ll be looking for is to see whether or not Ultra is still using the second-tier (imperfect) Max variant. There is no M2 Ultra doubling the first-tier (perfect) M2 Max, probably due to the additional layers of complexity introduced by the silicon bridge. Such perfection may exist, but it’s not for sale, at least not yet.
Which might explain why no Mac updates until October due to them waiting for N3P, which if N3P supports InFO, would include the Ultra variation.Since N3P is an optical shrink of N3E, it is compatible with its predecessor in terms of IP blocks, process rules, electronic design automation (EDA) tools, and design methodology. As a result, TSMC expects the majority of new tape outs to use N3P, not N3E or N3. This is logical as N3P provides higher performance efficiency than N3E at a lower cost than N3.
Seems to me that Apple considers the MacBook Pro as its flagship Mac product. For Apple, desktop are not even close to being a primary concern.Apple hasn't got a great track record with keeping it's flagship Mac updated.
It almost is, with comparable benchmark numbers, why would you buy a Studio when you can get a keyboard, screen and trackpad in addition to the machine that can almost keep up for the same money?Seems to me that Apple considers the MacBook Pro as its flagship Mac product. For Apple, desktop are not even close to being a primary concern.
N3E volume production didn’t “coincide” with the launch of M4 in May 2024. N3E volume production began in the 2nd half of 2023 (4th quarter, but we only learned that detail later on). So M4 launched at least six months after the start of N3E volume production.According to this article back in May N3E was in volume production that coincided with M4 for iPad Pro launch with N3P scheduled for 2nd half of 2024. […] Which might explain why no Mac updates until October due to them waiting for N3P, which if N3P supports InFO, would include the Ultra variation.
It’s not clear from your comment that you understand the basic premise of the OP’s prediction (and my comment #32 above, which provides details that support the premise), which is that all M5-generation Macs will have “Mac17,x” identifiers, and all M4-generation Macs will have “Mac16,x” identifiers. So the “major version number bump” you refer to is simply the next generation of Apple silicon.I think the OP's Mac17,1 & Mac17,2 are most likely to be the two Studios and unlikely to be launched in October with any variant of M4. Why else give them a major version number bump? […]
Their record with regard to the Ultra Macs is good, if we assume (as I do) that M3 Ultra doesn’t exist due to factors not in Apple’s direct control. The Ultra is always going to lag behind the Max on the roadmap, that’s the reality of Apple’s chip-first approach to advanced packaging. The Max comes first.Apple hasn't got a great track record with keeping its flagship Mac updated. […]
? I'm a little confused by this statement. As far as I can tell, indeed the full M2 Ultra doubles the full M2 Max: 2x(8/4+38) (P/E CPU+GPU) -> 16/8+76? Unless you mean something else?One thing I’ll be looking for is to see whether or not Ultra is still using the second-tier (imperfect) Max variant. There is no M2 Ultra doubling the first-tier (perfect) M2 Max, probably due to the additional layers of complexity introduced by the silicon bridge. Such perfection may exist, but it’s not for sale, at least not yet.
no? not in the CPU department which is what you seem to be claiming ...This thread isn't really giving us any new information. Every Mac will likely see an M4 update, it's not too surprising and at this point I'm happy if Apple gives us the M4 updates already and doesn't try to gap the update cycle with giving current M2 models the M3 based SoCs that are outdated already.
And whether there even will be a M3 Ultra, or a M4 Ultra for that matter, is a question relevant to very few users and not necessarily because nobody wants the kind of performance the Ultra provides, but because this design has inherent scaling problems.
It most definitely is not ... the little M4 has the highest ST performance of any P-core, desktop included, released so far.At least on the CPU side for most apps there is little to no benefit going beyond the 16 cores of a M3 Max. Apps that can even parallelize to the extent of using 12 performance cores let alone all 16 threads are few and far between. Even though there is a lot of software that can max that out with loads of computations running independently of each other, such as media conversion/transcode, very rarely will you have such a workflow that relies on maxing out all those resources for hours at a time. (I do and I run these on a dedicated machine, sometimes over night, as it can take days to finish, I don't run that on my main machine.)
What most workflows benefit greatly by is single core performance and that's another weakness of that ARM based architecture.
In what workloads?It's definitely the best chips to have especially in mobile devices like the Macbooks, but amongst desktop computers in terms of raw performance these SoCs are just average and the Ultra especially so when taking hardware cost into account.
The GPU is actually the part that doesn't scale as well to desktops, not the CPU.For most users they certainly aren't worth paying such a premium for.
The GPU scales almost linearly but even then you'll find overall performance to be average.
That ARM based way of doing things is to parallelize as much as possible. With most software there quickly comes a point where additional cores can only help so much and what is actually needed is single core performance. Most users would never see any benefits going from 12 cores to 24. Either apps just aren't optimized for that many cores or computations rely on previous computations meaning that the next computation cannot start until the currently ongoing computation finishes.no? not in the CPU department which is what you seem to be claiming ...
There is no telling when M4 Macs are going to hit the shelves. Apple might start out with a base M4 SoC Mini and refresh the passively cooled Airs as well. People to whom the extra performance matters for actual work will buy a Studio or MBP. And those might not refresh until 2025. The M4 might be super fast but what are you gonna do with that on an iPad? You are comparing unreleased next-gen computer hardware to the current-gen Intels/AMDs.the little M4 has the highest ST performance of any P-core, desktop included, released so far.
In...any workload? Compare a high-end 13th gen Intel with a RTX 4080/90 or something to the M2 Ultra and you'll find the Ultra is the worse yet more expensive option. I mean it's no surprise when these computers require 1000W power supplies and more - when you are looking for the "ultra" performance the M2 Ultra is unlikely to be what you'll be looking for.In what workloads?
Huh? The amount of GPU cores you can choose when buying M SoC based Macs scales pretty much linearly with GPU performance.The GPU is actually the part that doesn't scale as well to desktops, not the CPU.
Ugh, you are right. Not sure how I missed that. I've edited my comment #32 to include that...? I'm a little confused by this statement. As far as I can tell, indeed the full M2 Ultra doubles the full M2 Max: 2x(8/4+38) (P/E CPU+GPU) -> 16/8+76? Unless you mean something else?
The whole point of the original thread is to point out that there is evidence that not “every Mac is likely to see an M4 update,” that two Mac identifiers will go straight to M5 and skip M4. That is new information.This thread isn't really giving us any new information. Every Mac will likely see an M4 update, it's not too surprising and at this point I'm happy if Apple gives us the M4 updates already and doesn't try to gap the update cycle with giving current M2 models the M3 based SoCs that are outdated already. […]
No ... according to whom? If anything, the "ARM based way" is to have fast, efficient ST performance cores with no SMT. If anything, historically x86 has shined in parallel workloads buoyed by SMT, which Intel is now dropping because according to them it no longer makes sense even for x86. So you kinda have your thesis backwards here ...That ARM based way of doing things is to parallelize as much as possible.
The Ultra class chip is literally designed for those people who need exactly that. And you better not tell that to AMD or Intel each of whose top-of-the-line "9-series" chips come with 32 threads ...With most software there quickly comes a point where additional cores can only help so much and what is actually needed is single core performance. Most users would never see any benefits going from 12 cores to 24. Either apps just aren't optimized for that many cores or computations rely on previous computations meaning that the next computation cannot start until the currently ongoing computation finishes.
No telling? You do know Apple has pretty standard events every year around September for iPhones and October/November for Macs. We may not know which exact models will launch but we have pretty good idea about when M4 Macs are coming ...There is no telling when M4 Macs are going to hit the shelves.
But why you just said that only single core performance matters? So since for the Mac those all basically have the same ST performance (okay the top line M2 Max/Ultra got a tiny bump) why not just get the mini?Apple might start out with a base M4 SoC Mini and refresh the passively cooled Airs as well. People to whom the extra performance matters for actual work will buy a Studio or MBP.
The M4 exists it is not unreleased hardware ... we know what the performance characteristics are and AMD just released its newest desktop lineup and we know the M4 even in the iPad is faster. AMD aren't going to be releasing a new set of desktop processors in the next couple of months. Intel's Arrow Lake is unreleased but if it's faster, it won't be by much, and judging what we've seen from Lunar Lake so far and given Intel leaks and promises it might not be faster at all, again depending on workload.And those might not refresh until 2025. The M4 might be super fast but what are you gonna do with that on an iPad? You are comparing unreleased next-gen computer hardware to the current-gen Intels/AMDs.
But why would you do that? 100W+ desktop computers come with all sorts of parallel CPU cores which you just said nobody needs ...If you buy a 100W+ desktop computer chip in 2025 you'll have plenty of M4 alternatives.
certainly didn't have the fastest graphics compared to Intel/AMD computers with dedicated graphics.
Yes ... and that's why it is underwhelming for the desktop ... which you agreed with above saying: "certainly didn't have the fastest graphics compared to Intel/AMD computers with dedicated graphics." Desktop GPUs on PC don't scale linearly with laptop GPUs because Nvidia and AMD also crank up the clock speeds which yes wastes a lot of power that can't be wasted in the mobile design, but results in greater desktop performance. Thus, Nvidia and AMD scale desktop chips in both cores AND clocks. Meanwhile, Apple's advantages in TBDR GPUs isn't as pronounced as its CPU microarchitecture advantages so it can't quite translate the same "desktop-level performance, mobile-level power" for the GPU that it can for the CPU and it is limited by reticle area and die costs in scaling the GPU by core count alone. So, for desktops, Apple GPUs fall behind in relative performance to AMD/Nvidia for many, but not all workloads.["The GPU is actually the part that doesn't scale as well to desktops, not the CPU."]
Huh? The amount of GPU cores you can choose when buying M SoC based Macs scales pretty much linearly with GPU performance.
Interesting ...In...any workload?
Just look at the M2 Ultra and where that slots in compared to the Intels and AMDs of the time. It was the most expensive way to go but not that fastest, neither single threaded nor multi and
1000W power supplies aren't to support 35W ST performance. They're there to support hundreds upon hundreds of watts of unrestrained MT and GPU performance. So what's actually important to you? Anyway here is GB below, I could do the same with CB R24, but I'm tired and not going to because you said embarrassingly parallel CPU workloads were unimportant even for someone buying an Ultra even though those are actually the workloads the Intel and AMD processors excel at:Compare a high-end 13th gen Intel with a RTX 4080/90 or something to the M2 Ultra and you'll find the Ultra is the worse yet more expensive option. I mean it's no surprise when these computers require 1000W power supplies and more - when you are looking for the "ultra" performance the M2 Ultra is unlikely to be what you'll be looking for.
I wonder if he's convinced himself that this is the "ARM way" because there are Arm server chips where they pack up to 192 Neoverse cores into one chip? Low performance per core, lots of cores is a thing that's popular in datacenters.No ... according to whom? If anything, the "ARM based way" is to have fast, efficient ST performance cores with no SMT. If anything, historically x86 has shined in parallel workloads buoyed by SMT, which Intel is now dropping because according to them it no longer makes sense even for x86. So you kinda have your thesis backwards here ...
At least on the CPU side for most apps there is little to no benefit going beyond the 16 cores of a M3 Max. Apps that can even parallelize to the extent of using 12 performance cores let alone all 16 threads are few and far between.
What most workflows benefit greatly by is single core performance and that's another weakness of that ARM based architecture.