How do you think the M1 macs will be doing 5 years from now?

[jonnysods]

As long as Apple don't get up to any weirdness as their ARM processors and macOS head towards an iOS like relationship, and they pull something like they did on the batteries for older iPhones I think your computer will be fine.

I'm using the above as an example - not saying Apple will do this specific thing to Macs!

 

[leman]

But the monitor support have apple promised to fix with sw update

They promised to support more than one external monitor on M1 machines via a software update? When?

As long as Apple don't get up to any weirdness as their ARM processors and macOS head towards an iOS like relationship, and they pull something like they did on the batteries for older iPhones I think your computer will be fine.

Are you referring to reducing peak power usage (and thus performance) when you operate your device with a deteriorated battery? I have some news for you: most laptops in the world do this and have been doing it since, well, forever. The problem with how Apple implemented this on the iPhone was lack of proper communication and user control, combined with a strong media backlash. At any rate, similar mechanism is in place in all MacBooks, which is a good thing - you don’t want your computer to crash just because your battery is weak and you open a new browser window.

 

[ManicMarc]

They promised to support more than one external monitor on M1 machines via a software update? When?



Are you referring to reducing peak power usage (and thus performance) when you operate your device with a deteriorated battery? I have some news for you: most laptops in the world do this and have been doing it since, well, forever. The problem with how Apple implemented this on the iPhone was lack of proper communication and user control, combined with a strong media backlash. At any rate, similar mechanism is in place in all MacBooks, which is a good thing - you don’t want your computer to crash just because your battery is weak and you open a new browser window.

Interestingly this is a setting that can be turned off on Intel Macs, but not on M1 Macs.

 

[Clausewitz]

If it does as well as 2015 Macbook pro is doing now, I'd be happy

2015 versions were very good. I had been very rough & tough on my 2015 base model 13" MBP but it refused to go down.

 

[iamMacPerson]

My 2012 Mac mini came with 10.8 and ran everything up to and including 10.15. It served almost 9 faithful years. My Mac Pro originally shipped with 10.5 and ran (with some firmware flashing) 10.14 - 10 years of support. These two machines condensed into my new M1 Mac mini. I don't doubt it'll get at least 5 years of main line support, but I hope for at least 8. That's why I sprung for the 16GB of RAM and 1TB SSD.

 

[trip1ex]

they will blow up and you will have to get a new one.

 

[trip1ex]

i actually feel like the bigger threat to the Mac is ios. Just feel the only thing stopping the iPad even iphone from being used as a capable consumer desktop is Apple.

 

[5425642]

They promised to support more than one external monitor on M1 machines via a software update? When?



Are you referring to reducing peak power usage (and thus performance) when you operate your device with a deteriorated battery? I have some news for you: most laptops in the world do this and have been doing it since, well, forever. The problem with how Apple implemented this on the iPhone was lack of proper communication and user control, combined with a strong media backlash. At any rate, similar mechanism is in place in all MacBooks, which is a good thing - you don’t want your computer to crash just because your battery is weak and you open a new browser window.

I did miss read it, it was a promise for ultra wide display fix.

 

[haralds]

They will perform as well as they do today, BUT the performance gap between yearly generations will be much bigger than what we are used to from the Intel-based platforms.
You can look at the iPhone evolution both in raw performance and also added functionality like Neural Engine.
The life cycle will be long as all previous Apple units, but the "Lust Factor" will force me to upgrade every couple to three years.

 

[reyesmac]

The ports will most likely obsolete for pro work but fine for regular things except you’ll still be stuck with the few you have.
The speed should be great unless they do us like they do iPads and iPhones in which case it will feel slower.
These macs will also not be compatible with the new gadgets they’ll come up with that will leverage the power of the computer to do things. Like laptops that wirelessly charge phones or glasses that pair with your computer for an augmented reality finder.
Adobe apps and some of today’s hit games may finally be ported over and native by then. But your ram amount may be a problem.
I think the world around your computer in the next 5 years will be more of a problem than the computer itself will.

 

[spiderman0616]

My 2014 model MBA from work was chugging along just fine when it was replaced with a 2019 15" MBP early last year. I had it in clamshell mode most of the time running two monitors and doing a lot of screen sharing and conference calls, and I really never had too much of an issue with anything running slow. Now, could it be running modern games or modern content editing apps? Absolutely not. But for work, it was holding its own just fine.

So that was an old Intel processor running on an old Mac and 6 years later the battery and power were fine for any of the standard things I was doing. I imagine that 5 years from now this initial lineup of M1s will be doing just fine and will still be total overkill for a lot of things. But I'll probably have upgraded by then anyway.

 

[spiderman0616]

i actually feel like the bigger threat to the Mac is ios. Just feel the only thing stopping the iPad even iphone from being used as a capable consumer desktop is Apple.

Kind of funny that you mention iOS instead of iPadOS. I just gave my iPad Pro up for an M1 MBA and haven't looked back yet. However, on less busy work days, I will sometimes leave my work MBP docked and just take care of communications and calendar events from my iPhone 12 Pro Max. If I want a bigger screen for personal stuff during the work day, I'll grab the M1, but it's usually not necessary. I really could do my whole job from my iPhone if I were really in a tight spot, and I have done just that more than once in my life.

A friend of mine likes to say that Apple has two modes: attack, and waiting to attack. Apple is in attack mode right now. They attack not only their competitors, but also their own product lines. If this trend continues a bit longer while they clear out the pipeline from pandemic related delays, we could still see some more "attack" products before Apple goes back underground and starts working in total secrecy on the next thing again. So maybe not in this current attack phase but the next one, we'll at least get a paper launch of that fabled Mac and iPad in one machine. That would be an absolute assault on both the iPad and the Mac's user base, because it's a device I think a lot of people want. I am confident it will also be a device that does things we haven't even realized we want yet.

 

[xraydoc]

The only issues I see in 5 years will be the 8GB of RAM in the base machines. Just like 4GB was 5 years ago, I suspect 8GB will be barely serviceable for the then-current OS in 5 years time.

 

[spiderman0616]

The only issues I see in 5 years will be the 8GB of RAM in the base machines. Just like 4GB was 5 years ago, I suspect 8GB will be barely serviceable for the then-current OS in 5 years time.

Probably pretty accurate, which is why I'm sure I won't have my base model M1 MBA anymore by then. I don't regret buying it though. Because these M1 machines are already so much fun to use and so feature complete out of the gate despite any architecture change-related growing pains they might have, I love the fact that I was able to get in to this new paradigm from the ground floor.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Of course not. What I mean is that the jump between first-gen and second-gen desktop AS is probably going to be bigger that betweem, say, second gen and third gen. So someone who suffers from spec envy and plans to keep their machine for a while probably should not get an M1 machine today. Regular users who don’t care about all these things will be happy with M1 for years to come.

Agreed. If the next Apple Silicon release doubles the number of CPU performance cores and GPU cores, then we will see a large increase in performance that is unlikely be replicated in the subsequent update.

I am interested in knowing whether in the 2nd generation we'll see a core-count increase or both an architectural improvement (e.g. common A15 improvements in the core architecture) PLUS a size increase.

 

[leman]

Agreed. If the next Apple Silicon release doubles the number of CPU performance cores and GPU cores, then we will see a large increase in performance that is unlikely be replicated in the subsequent update.

I am interested in knowing whether in the 2nd generation we'll see a core-count increase or both an architectural improvement (e.g. common A15 improvements in the core architecture) PLUS a size increase.

I think this is very unlikely. The 4+4+16 configuration will probably be sufficient for the MBA for years to come. But we will certainly get architectural improvements (maybe even wider processors?), more display outputs and other stuff along that line.

 

[Fomalhaut]

I think this is very unlikely. The 4+4+16 configuration will probably be sufficient for the MBA for years to come. But we will certainly get architectural improvements (maybe even wider processors?), more display outputs and other stuff along that line.

I would be pretty happy with an 8+4 CPU and 16-core GPU if it gets close to an AMD 5600M dGPU, preferably in a 14" MBP. This may be optimistic in the rumored 14" and might only be found in the top-end MBP16".

If the 14" doesn't meet my expectations, I'll wait for the next generation in 2022. I have an i9 MBP16 that runs pretty well, albeit quite hot, and with mediocre battery life (by modern standards). I found the 16" a little bit large and heavy if carrying it for a few hours, and it doesn't fit so well in confined spaces, e.g. airplane tray tables (you remember those? ), or fitting into hotel safes.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

our lowest latency memory as main memory, our sufficiently fast, non-volatile (!) and sufficiently dense memory as system storage and our most dense and durable memory for long term storage.

This might be a little pedantic but the lowest latency memory are the CPU caches.

 

[SlCKB0Y]

i actually feel like the bigger threat to the Mac is ios. Just feel the only thing stopping the iPad even iphone from being used as a capable consumer desktop is Apple.

That and the thermal constraints, lack of desktop viable input and output devices and the meagre screen-on battery life. Oh and the seriously hobbled productivity of a mobile OS.

it’s a bit like when people complain about MacBook not having a touch screen. Apple has very specific line drawn when it comes to hybrid devices. Besides that I loath the idea of a touch screen on a laptop. I am so extraordinarily anal retentive about having a clean screen on my MacBook that even the thought of purposefully putting disgusting oily fingerprints on it makes my head explode.

Back when we all worked in offices there was always some Neanderthal who would want to show you something on your screen and they would be poking it with their fingers like some kind of ape and I’d just be sitting there fantasising about punching them in the throat.

yes, I have issues.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Back when we all worked in offices there was always some Neanderthal who would want to show you something on your screen and they would be poking it with their fingers like some kind of ape and I’d just be sitting there fantasising about punching them in the throat.

yes, I have issues.

ROFL - no, you don't have issues, this is a perfectly normal and reasonable reaction to people who prod your screen! I had a colleague who even had a sticky label on their laptop that said "Please do not touch the screen!" to prevent just this kind of aberrant behaviour.

 

[darknetone]

Alright, so title says it. How do you think the current m1 MacBook air, mac mini, and MacBook pro will be doing 5 years from now? Do you think they will still be supported and will still be usable devices? Also, how long do you think they will be supported. Also, anyone feel free to comeback around 2025-2026 and write how your 2020 m1 mac is doing.

Based on my last (former) 2014 MacBook Air and my Mac Mini 2012 (its my back and plex machine) I suspect my M! Macbook Pro will do just fine.

EDT: added mention of my Mac Mini 2012 - realized that I forgot to mention the little guy.

 

[TrueBlou]

Likely still perfectly useable, a bit slower, but probably on the latest version of macOS. Though I think it may be it’s last update.

Computers never die (well, they do obviously, but I mean if you can keep it operational). I still fire up my iMac G4 for certain things. Hell, I still use my BBC Micro (among many others) regularly - best version of Chuckie Egg as far as I’m concerned

 

[MK500]

In 5 years they will still be fully supported and functional. Even at 10 years they will be very functional.

I have over 33 years of experience owning and using Macs. They are the best supported and most reliable computers in the long term. My 1987 Mac II was still running fine 10 years later. My 2010 MacBook Pro is still running fine. I expect my 2020 M1 MacBook Air to still be fine in 2030. I have two 2013 MacBook Airs in my home under heavy daily use (Wife and Daughter).

The only worrying part of a modern MacBook is the battery. Apple knows this and offers a reasonably priced battery replacement program. Generally for $129 to $199 you can get a brand new replacement battery installed in your out-of-warranty Mac. No need for AppleCare unless you want it (I have never had it on any of my dozens of Macs).

Mac Repair and Service - Apple Support

Need to repair your Mac? See your service options, their costs by coverage type, and how long they take.

support.apple.com

Of course some small percentage of Macs will have board failures along the way, and not survive to 10 years. Despite what Louis Rossmann (love his videos!) might say, this is a very small percentage.

Apple's switch to their own silicon for more and more parts will only increase reliability. The Intel Macs were becoming a big of a hacked together mess with parts from many vendors (like many Intel/AMD PCs). Expect modern Macs to start having life expectancy similar to iPads; with only battery replacement necessary every 4 to 6 years.

By the way; I think $129 is an incredible deal for parts/labor on a battery replacement. I have the tools and workshop to do the job at my home, but gladly would rather pay Apple $129 to do it. It is one place where Apple actually charges a lower than expected price for service

As an aside, I recently brought my 2015 12" MacBook in for a battery replacement. Battery life was below 70% as it had too many cycles (I believe over 1000). They not only replaced my battery, but also the entire lower frame of my Mac (new keyboard). They did this because they said the keyboards sometimes failed and they wanted to be proactive. Also they told me the computer was down at the time I picked up my MacBook so wouldn't charge me. My eyes just about popped out of my head.

A week before this I had brought in my aging iPad Air 2 for a $99 battery replacement. The returned unit was refurbished "like new" to my eyes. Pretty awesome deal.

Despite many complaints to the contrary, Apple quite often has the best customer service in the industry.

 

[Joelist]

The M Series (NOT ARM) will age just fine. Even this starter version (M1) has a lot of headroom in terms of per core performance and with 4 high performance and 4 efficiency is pretty futureproof. Later this year we will get M1X (or whatever they call it) and they can scale up nicely just by adding cores (probably 4 more performance, 4 more ML and 8-12 more GPU plus controllers and probably doubled cache).

 

[darngooddesign]

Alright, so title says it. How do you think the current m1 MacBook air, mac mini, and MacBook pro will be doing 5 years from now? Do you think they will still be supported and will still be usable devices? Also, how long do you think they will be supported. Also, anyone feel free to comeback around 2025-2026 and write how your 2020 m1 mac is doing.

I just updated my 2014 MBP to Big Sur so the M1Books should be fine.