I don't think the first decade of the millennium is a good indication of the future. A lot of factors changed between the 2 decades, which is why virtually any pc of the first decade are barely usable today but some pc of the 2011-12 (including laptops) are not only usable but quite responsive and will be for the next few years.
Among the big changes:
- move to 64 bits support for much more RAM than 3-4GB, especially since DDR3 and its 8GB modules
- general move from HDDs to SSDs
- big jump in performance, especially since Sandy Brydge (2nd gen), with only incremental upgrades at least until 8th gen
Software-wise, on the Windows side minimum requirements almost stopped increasing since Vista. Macs updates have instead made older Macs slower, especially since Catalina.
On Windows a 2nd gen laptops with either a quad core CPU or even a compact one with a good CPU like my 35w compact "ultrabook" from almost 10 years ago, a decent 16GB RAM and an SSD is still pretty responsive and what will make it obsolete is more software support after 2025 than lack of power. So a completely different situation from 20 years.
On Macs again not exactly the same thing, but still... My mid 2013 Macbook air, which is slower than my 2012 Windows ultrabook to begin with, is usable until Mojave, but unbearably slow with Bigsur (I went back to High Sierra), but a M1 will probably feel responsive till the very last year of support, which might get longer now that Apple uses their own silicon (I expect 2030 at least).
I expect that contrary to the past, OS support will be the main obstacle to running any high end device (including the M1) with enough RAM (16GB or more) and storage past 10 years as well as finding parts for repairs (which is more an issue for laptops than for desktops), not lack of power.
Among the big changes:
- move to 64 bits support for much more RAM than 3-4GB, especially since DDR3 and its 8GB modules
- general move from HDDs to SSDs
- big jump in performance, especially since Sandy Brydge (2nd gen), with only incremental upgrades at least until 8th gen
Software-wise, on the Windows side minimum requirements almost stopped increasing since Vista. Macs updates have instead made older Macs slower, especially since Catalina.
On Windows a 2nd gen laptops with either a quad core CPU or even a compact one with a good CPU like my 35w compact "ultrabook" from almost 10 years ago, a decent 16GB RAM and an SSD is still pretty responsive and what will make it obsolete is more software support after 2025 than lack of power. So a completely different situation from 20 years.
On Macs again not exactly the same thing, but still... My mid 2013 Macbook air, which is slower than my 2012 Windows ultrabook to begin with, is usable until Mojave, but unbearably slow with Bigsur (I went back to High Sierra), but a M1 will probably feel responsive till the very last year of support, which might get longer now that Apple uses their own silicon (I expect 2030 at least).
I expect that contrary to the past, OS support will be the main obstacle to running any high end device (including the M1) with enough RAM (16GB or more) and storage past 10 years as well as finding parts for repairs (which is more an issue for laptops than for desktops), not lack of power.