Hurricane Dorian [Merged]

[MacNut]

Like past threads related to severe weather, this thread is to stay informed and provide information to members who may be affected. No politics allowed, we have other areas for that.

Dorian is currently a cat 1 hurricane with winds of 85 mph. The storm is expected to impact Florida over the weekend and strengthen to a cat 3 with winds over 130 mph. The storm is also expected to slow down causing life threatening flooding.

 

[smallcoffee]

Stay safe. Also imagine how people in the early 1700s - 1900s dealt with this. Crazy to think about.

 

[Rogifan]

11 am update: 150 mph. Moving W at 8 mph. Pressure 945 mb

 

[vrDrew]

An article in todays New York Times points out that many of us (me included) are misinterpreting those hurricane track forecast maps.

The National Hurricane Center says cones will contain the path of the storm center only 60 to 70 percent of the time. In other words, one out of three times we experience a storm like this, its center will be outside the boundaries of the cone.

The cone of the predicted path gets bigger over time because the uncertainty grows. The map you posted suggests that the storm centre could run through Jacksonville in the north, or Miami in the south of Florida. But there is a 30% chance that the centre of the storm could run south of the cone - striking Cuba, or north, running through Georgia.

And storm centre is an important concept to understand. Hurricanes are hundreds of miles wide.

Bottom line: If you live in Atlanta, Georgia there is a possibility that Hurricane Dorian might be rolling over you next Monday night.

Stay tuned.

 

[Rogifan]

An article in todays New York Times points out that many of us (me included) are misinterpreting those hurricane track forecast maps.



The cone of the predicted path gets bigger over time because the uncertainty grows. The map you posted suggests that the storm centre could run through Jacksonville in the north, or Miami in the south of Florida. But there is a 30% chance that the centre of the storm could run south of the cone - striking Cuba, or north, running through Georgia.

And storm centre is an important concept to understand. Hurricanes are hundreds of miles wide.

Bottom line: If you live in Atlanta, Georgia there is a possibility that Hurricane Dorian might be rolling over you next Monday night.

Stay tuned.

I was watching the weather channel and it sounded ominous. It’s getting stronger and slowing down. Florida got lucky with Irma because the storm got beat up over Cuba. This storm isn’t really hitting any land until it gets to Florida. Maybe parts of the Bahamas but that’s it. And the water is extremely warm (80-90F). As bad as Michael was it hit a part of Florida that isn’t heavily populated. Wherever Dorian hits it’s going to be devastating. And unbelievably there are people cheering it on because they’re hoping it hits Mar-a-Lago. Sick.

 

[0388631]

Also imagine how people in the early 1700s - 1900s dealt with this.

Around the early 1800s, record keeping became a thing. Though Colonial America had a knack for writing letters discussing late summer storms, which would be these. No idea on what Natives did. My Native American knowledge is mostly west coast.

Death counts, on the other hand, were mostly precipitated by the lack of understanding when it came to these systems. In other words, they'd think it was merely heavy rain and turbulant wind, when in reality they and their townspeople would be dead and flooded within 24-48 hours.
[doublepost=1567139301][/doublepost]Also, today we have methods of diverting water that only fails after a certain point where the built systems and groundwork are exhausted in their ability to do as such. The people then didn't have such luxuries.

 

[jonblatho]

An article in todays New York Times points out that many of us (me included) are misinterpreting those hurricane track forecast maps.



The cone of the predicted path gets bigger over time because the uncertainty grows. The map you posted suggests that the storm centre could run through Jacksonville in the north, or Miami in the south of Florida. But there is a 30% chance that the centre of the storm could run south of the cone - striking Cuba, or north, running through Georgia.

And storm centre is an important concept to understand. Hurricanes are hundreds of miles wide.

Bottom line: If you live in Atlanta, Georgia there is a possibility that Hurricane Dorian might be rolling over you next Monday night.

Stay tuned.

A few points here that I’d like to bring up as a meteorologist, some in response to you and some general commentary.

1. Thank you for pointing out the difference between the forecast cone and lateral tropical cyclone size. It’s a very common misconception and one that many of us are trying to work to resolve, first through improved communication and perhaps through an improved graphic.
2. The forecast cone “error” you mention is mostly theoretical in this case. Models are remarkably consistent, especially for this far out, that Dorian will either make landfall in east-central Florida or get rather close to doing so. There’s some room for error, but I wouldn’t worry at all about a landfalling major hurricane if I were in coastal Georgia or Cuba right now.
3. There is some significant uncertainty in what Dorian will do after its approach to or landfall in Florida, but the current favored solution is for Dorian to get as close to Florida as it’s going to get (landfall or not) and then travel essentially along the East Coast toward the Carolinas. It’ll have far weaker wind speeds, and storm surge (a concern especially north of landfall) will die down to some extent with it, but by that point a far larger concern will be the amount of rain it dumps from northeastern Florida to the Carolinas.
4. Other solutions do exist to point 3. Some models have suggested that Dorian could completely miss Florida to the east, while others suggest that it’ll cut across Florida and go for a second landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast. As of now, though, those solutions seem unlikely.
5. I wouldn’t dare comment on Dorian’s timing past landfall right now. It’s a mess.

 

[Rogifan]

Here’s a good site with weather geeks posting up to the minute info. This thing keeps getting uglier.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dorian-Potentially-Historic-Labor-Day-Hurricane-Florida

 

[maflynn]

Stay safe. Also imagine how people in the early 1700s - 1900s dealt with this. Crazy to think about.

I think the satellite technology was more rudimentary in the 1700s

Seriously, the people only had the falling barometer and personal observation to dicern if a major storm was coming. I don't think they had too much warning a hurricane was about to hit so there was a lack of preparation. Heck even in the 1960s and 70s we didn't have much warning of hurricanes. It wasn't until late 70s and 80s where satellites and better modeling started improving trajectories and hurricane paths.

 

[0989382]

https://www.wired.com/story/nuking-hurricanes-polar-ice-caps-climate-change/

;-)

 

[D.T.]

Ugh. We're in wait-and-see mode, we're up in the NE corner, so most models are showing a miss - but this is from the same sources that tell me it's cloudy and raining and we're sitting in sunshine, blue skies, on the beach ...

If it veers, we'll just evac, have another house now, so we'll squat there (near a river, but extremely high, non-flood zone, vs. being 2 blocks from the ocean). If we get peripheral weather, we're set to hunker down, lots of supplies, generator, emergency gear.

If the nuke gets tried, I have an open line to Rodan to solve the Godzilla issue.

 

[0388631]

I can usually tell when there's an impending storm system heading our way. Due to, I'm guessing, the fact it's sunny and dry most of the year. We've been having chilly high humidity nights and mornings the last few weeks, @maflynn. Which is a sign that fall is approaching. I inspected a few leaves off of trees on our street and they're beginning to change color in minute surface areas. Given our very mild summer, and I say that because we had to use the central air sparingly, that our winter will be brutally cold by our standards. The last summer I recall being like this was nearly a decade ago, and the winter following saw night highs of the high 30s, very low 40s. Thanksgiving was a chilly 48* by afternoon close to 6 PM, I'd say.

I remember having to run to the store to grab a few sleeves of garlic for a sauce before the stores closed, and recall freezing as it was chilly and windy.

Ugh. We're in wait-and-see mode, we're up in the NE corner, so most models are showing a miss - but this is from the same sources that tell me it's cloudy and raining and we're sitting in sunshine, blue skies, on the beach ...

If it veers, we'll just evac, have another house now, so we'll squat there (near a river, but extremely high, non-flood zone, vs. being 2 blocks from the ocean). If we get peripheral weather, we're set to hunker down, lots of supplies, generator, emergency gear.

If the nuke gets tried, I have an open line to Rodan to solve the Godzilla issue.

Congratulations. I had no idea you guys closed on a second house.

 

[MacNut]

I think the satellite technology was more rudimentary in the 1700s

Seriously, the people only had the falling barometer and personal observation to dicern if a major storm was coming. I don't think they had too much warning a hurricane was about to hit so there was a lack of preparation. Heck even in the 1960s and 70s we didn't have much warning of hurricanes. It wasn't until late 70s and 80s where satellites and better modeling started improving trajectories and hurricane paths.

Hurricanes were not named until the 1950's. The big one that comes to mind for the northeast was the "Long Island Express", or the 1938 hurricane. They had no idea it was coming until it was on top of them. The storm was gone in 6 hours but destroyed just about everything.

Latest update has this storm stalling out somewhere along the southeast coast of Florida.

 

[maflynn]

They had no idea it was coming until it was on top of them

That's my point, prior to satellites, people had almost no warning and the only indication something large was about to happen was a falling barometer

 

[MacNut]

That's my point, prior to satellites, people had almost no warning and the only indication something large was about to happen was a falling barometer

Even then they assumed it was probably just gas and nothing to worry about.

 

[Rogifan]

This thing is getting bigger and more defined. I’ll bet it’s upgraded to a cat 3 with the next advisory.

 

[Herdfan]

I was watching the weather channel and it sounded ominous. It’s getting stronger and slowing down. Florida got lucky with Irma because the storm got beat up over Cuba. This storm isn’t really hitting any land until it gets to Florida. Maybe parts of the Bahamas but that’s it. And the water is extremely warm (80-90F). As bad as Michael was it hit a part of Florida that isn’t heavily populated. Wherever Dorian hits it’s going to be devastating. And unbelievably there are people cheering it on because they’re hoping it hits Mar-a-Lago. Sick.

Not only warm, but warm deep to 80+. Upwelling colder water won't be a weakening factor.

 

[LordVic]

This thing is getting bigger and more defined. I’ll bet it’s upgraded to a cat 3 with the next advisory.

Weather report on the radio this morning was saying they now believeit'll be Cat4 when making landfall.

 

[BaldiMac]

It's expected to reach category 4 now.

 

[Rogifan]

And this Twitter account, which is not prone to hyperbole, says the storm is about to explode.

crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy)
8/30/19, 9:36 AM
This is a very ominous sign. That feathering means whatever inhibiting factors were along the southern end of the cyclone are now gone at the upper level. This is about to explode, unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1167445924987187203?s=21

And check this out: very scary stuff.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_02_band_02_sector_04&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

 

[LordVic]

And this Twitter account, which is not prone to hyperbole, says the storm is about to explode.

crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy)
8/30/19, 9:36 AM
This is a very ominous sign. That feathering means whatever inhibiting factors were along the southern end of the cyclone are now gone at the upper level. This is about to explode, unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1167445924987187203?s=21

That thing is sucking up so much new warmth and moisture.


Florida peeps. Stay safe.

 

[Rogifan]

That thing is sucking up so much new warmth and moisture.


Florida peeps. Stay safe.

Yes and spare a thought for the Bahamas. Looks like Freeport could take a direct hit. Also the storm looks like it will hit the most populated areas of Florida.

 

[jonblatho]

Yep, Dorian has become starkly better organized (don’t open on a slow/metered connection) over the course of this morning, having formed an eye and become far more symmetrical. From that animation you can also start to see the picture coming together for Dorian’s traversal northward along the East Coast toward the Carolinas, which is now better reflected in the NHC forecast:

 

[Rogifan]

Yep, Dorian has become starkly better organized (don’t open on a slow/metered connection) over the course of this morning, having formed an eye and become far more symmetrical. From that animation you can also start to see the picture coming together for Dorian’s traversal northward along the East Coast toward the Carolinas, which is now better reflected in the NHC forecast:

View attachment 855365

Found this on a Weather Underground comments section. Don’t know if it’s legit or not. But nobody is disputing it. God I hope it’s wrong.

EDIT: just saw this posted too. Yikes!

 

[Herdfan]

That looks scary, but I don't trust the GFS as much as some other models.