Yeah I still trust most what The Weather Channel reports, though a lot of posters over at Weather Underground seem to know their stuff. Unfortunately Drudge links to them so then the riff raff shows up, the types that know nothing but know it’s all a conspiracy and media hype to push global warming or something. LOL.
Even if you look at the Euro, which has a better track record, it shows a similar situation.
While the exact details of the track are still uncertain, it does seem pretty likely at this point that the general idea is…that. It is important to note that Dorian will likely weaken to a tropical storm within a couple of days after landfall (or its closest approach to it), but as you show in the second plot, it will still dump tremendous amounts of rain. Flooding will be a very major concern, especially for coastal areas.Found this on a Weather Underground comments section. Don’t know if it’s legit or not. But nobody is disputing it. God I hope it’s wrong.
EDIT: just saw this posted too. Yikes!
This was Matthew’s track:
It’s possible, but I’d say that if that does manage to happen, it doesn’t present any serious concern of (significant?) restrengthening. Water in that area will be somewhat cooler from Dorian’s precipitation, and it’s unlikely that the storm makes it far away enough from land such that it can be completely free of those effects as well.
There were some ways to fill in the gaps before the satellite era, particularly ship reports and collaboration between different countries’ meteorological institutions, that were used to provide some warning whenever possible. Of course, we’re still far better off now.
I see some are comparing this to Matthew. But Matthew was about a month later where the waters weren’t as warm.
Yep, the 12Z ECMWF ensemble members show some fresh uncertainty in whether Dorian will make a close approach to Florida or stay well out to sea. Conversely, the 12Z GEFS ensemble seemingly has every single member suggesting that Dorian will make landfall on Florida’s Atlantic coast, an approach which is backed up by the deterministic GFS (FV3). As of now, I’d suggest that there’s a better chance that Dorian will make landfall in Florida than that it won’t, but either way, Florida’s Atlantic coast will see significant impacts from both wind and water. Further north, the hazard will shift to be almost solely water.
I never, ever compare one tropical cyclone to another and encourage my peers never to do so as well. No two are alike and attempting to compare them is lazy — if not dangerous — when lives are on the line.
NHC just put out a special update. Now a category 4. 130 mph winds. Pressure 950 mb.
Strangely enough, I was just about to post a dropsonde measurement in the NE eyewall with a 116 kt surface wind measurement, which would make it a Category 4 under the Saffir–Simpson scale, and speculating that they didn’t receive the data in time for the 8 PM advisory.
Dr. Knabb on the Weather Channel, who is usually quite accurate said he doesn’t see anything that stops this storm from becoming a cat 5, maybe even tonight. Damn.Strangely enough, I was just about to post a dropsonde measurement in the NE eyewall with a 116 kt surface wind measurement, which would make it a Category 4 under the Saffir–Simpson scale, and speculating that they didn’t receive the data in time for the 8 PM advisory.
It wasn’t supposed to get this strong until tomorrow night, and there’s still a few days and plenty of warm water ahead of it.
Yep. A ’sonde dropped about 45 minutes ago got a surface wind measurement of 131 kt or 150 mph. If that measurement can be replicated or near-replicated on the northern eyewall — I suspect the NHC could take issue with using this measurement by itself for multiple reasons — this thing’s on the doorstep of being a Category 5 hurricane already.
Oh thanks, I removed it.
140 mph now. I believe that’s only 16 mph from a cat 5. Spare a thought for the Bahamas. The Bahamas are getting slammed no matter what.
Looks like they split the difference between the questionable 131 kt observation and the “status quo” observation of 112 kt for this advisory — averaging them comes almost exactly to 140 mph. That recon flight’s on its way out of the storm as another flies in. It’ll be interesting to see what comes with the next flight.
