This makes me nervous. People are going to let their guard down and not take it seriously enough. I think it’s way too far out to predict exact tract.
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Hurricane Dorian [Merged]
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This is a little misleading (not intentionally of course).
The center of the cone is just offshore. Everyone in the entire cone area is at risk for a direct landfall. News anchors better make that extremely clear. There’s still a very high chance this makes a direct landfall.
Unfortunately, that winds up happening for a lot of storms no matter what the cause is. For example, even if this makes landfall, some may see that this is a Category 4 storm and say they got through the last Category 4 storm just fine while they were, say, 150 miles from where it made landfall where they won’t be this time.
Communication of hazards associated with landfalling and near-landfalling tropical cyclones is a major issue, and in my opinion the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale contributes a great deal to it. It’s why I generally don’t like to discuss a hurricane’s category rating at length — it’s never wind that kills the most people when a hurricane makes landfall, but that’s all that’s considered under the SSHWS. It’s 2019 and we can do better than rating an entire disturbance hundreds of miles wide based on wind speed at a single point, but folks are stubborn.
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I put a lot of emphasis on the NHC’s forecast track because they normally do an excellent job. They have, so far, done well with this storm, especially with the uncertainty involved. While I’ve yet to make one of my track GIFs for Dorian showing the evolution of the 5-day cone over time, I don’t think the real track has yet veered out of the cone.
In fact, I usually try to avoid focusing too much on the cone because of the common misconception (mentioned earlier in the thread) that it shows the storm’s size.
Edit: The track did veer outside the cone when Dorian skirted Puerto Rico to the east.
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Thanks to our meteorological knowledgeable members for posting here- interesting stuff! I send my best to anyone affected by this potentially disastrous storm.
Stay safe out there everyone!
Stay safe out there everyone!
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It's worth keeping in mind that the continental US has, by area, some of the most extreme and violent weather-related events. Hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, floods, ice-storms, wildfires, heat waves strike the US in a way that is difficult to find anyplace else on earth.
Fortunately, due to a relatively modern housing stock, and effective building regulation, usually the death and injury toll from this violent weather is relatively small. Oh, we also have some of the best meteorologists and weather reporting systems in the world.
I do find it ironic, however, that many of the people most at risk from extreme weather, which is likely to increase due to climate change, seem most reluctant to accept that such change is taking place.
Fortunately, due to a relatively modern housing stock, and effective building regulation, usually the death and injury toll from this violent weather is relatively small. Oh, we also have some of the best meteorologists and weather reporting systems in the world.
I do find it ironic, however, that many of the people most at risk from extreme weather, which is likely to increase due to climate change, seem most reluctant to accept that such change is taking place.
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Storm prediction has shifted eastward. If it pans out Florida might not get a direct hit but it looks like South Carolina will. What’s interesting though is the storm is moving faster than it was last night. Last night was 9-10 mph moving WNW, now it’s 12 mph moving W. We won’t get a new cone until the 11 am update but I wonder if the slightly faster speed could shift this more westward again. I lot of theories I saw were the storm really slowing down would cause a more northern turn where it would miss the Florida cost all together.
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I just hope it keeps heading off the coast and no one is affected. The Weather Channel is out of control! They are a bunch of fear mongers thing to entice viewership. They over exaggerate everything from verbiage to body language. The Weather Channel used to be a respectable source for storm info. Now it's all buffoonery and theatrics. They even went as far to have a demonstration on how to fill sandbags.
Best thing imo is just get the weather data and regional forecast discussions from the NOAA pages. The commercial broadcasters just take the data from there anyway, massage it and hype whatever of it they want to draw eyeballs...
11 AM advisory keeps the track offshore, a bit east of where it was. Florida will likely still see major impacts from storm surge and precipitation even though it now seems decreasingly likely that they will see hurricane-force winds.
Today: Projected path video (second video down), shows it scraping the East coast of Florida, landfall S.Carolina.
https://abc11.com/5504938/
https://abc11.com/5504938/
Moderator Note:
Just a heads up... this thread now consists of a PRSI forum discussion on the hurricane and a Community forum discussion on the hurricane that were merged into this thread in the Community forum, so please keep the politics out of this thread.
If you would like to discuss the politics of the hurricane, please start a thread on that issue in the PRSI forum.
Thanks and I hope everyone has a safe weekend.
Just a heads up... this thread now consists of a PRSI forum discussion on the hurricane and a Community forum discussion on the hurricane that were merged into this thread in the Community forum, so please keep the politics out of this thread.
If you would like to discuss the politics of the hurricane, please start a thread on that issue in the PRSI forum.
Thanks and I hope everyone has a safe weekend.
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Now apparently GFS is shifting westward. Someone on Twitter said this storm is like a metronome on crack.
And now a model showing a possible direct hit to Miami. Ugh.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...e-Great-Florida-Keys-Labor-Day-Hurricane-1935
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Some higher geopotential heights along the East Coast are indicating that the ridge that will eventually steer Dorian up the East Coast is stronger than forecast, which would move Dorian inland sooner.Now apparently GFS is shifting westward. Someone on Twitter said this storm is like a metronome on crack.
And now a model showing a possible direct hit to Miami. Ugh.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...e-Great-Florida-Keys-Labor-Day-Hurricane-1935
As for the ICON output, I would advise against believing one model that disagrees strongly with all of the others unless there’s some fundamental and identifiable reason why all the others are wrong. The chances of a direct hit on Miami are very low at this time.
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Looks like it won’t have any real effect on me (Tampa area). Still can’t believe how lucky we got with Irma 2 years ago though. There’s another disturbance over near Africa that I don’t like, but it might just disappear.
Now apparently GFS is shifting westward. Someone on Twitter said this storm is like a metronome on crack.
And now a model showing a possible direct hit to Miami. Ugh.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...e-Great-Florida-Keys-Labor-Day-Hurricane-1935
What does the scale on the right indicate?
Not liking this. Hopefully it’s an outlier.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Uncertainty-Widens-Southeast-Impacts-Extremely-Dangerous-Dorian
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Uncertainty-Widens-Southeast-Impacts-Extremely-Dangerous-Dorian
Posters over at Weather Underground sounding the alarm that some data indicates it coming closer to the Florida coast. Weather Channel still sticking with it missing the coast. I wonder if the 11 pm NHC update will move the track westward at all.