Hurricane Dorian [Merged]

[Rogifan]

Also important to note that the NHC also placed coastal east-central Florida under a hurricane watch with this advisory.

And then the acting director for FEMA was on TV this morning saying it wasn’t going to hit the coast. So irresponsible. Even the Weather Channel now is emphasizing how uncertain everything is. I’d much rather have people prepared for the worst and it not pan out.

 

[jonblatho]

And then the acting director for FEMA was on TV this morning saying it wasn’t going to hit the coast. So irresponsible. Even the Weather Channel now is emphasizing how uncertain everything is. I’d much rather have people prepared for the worst and it not pan out.

I want to say something but the thread’s no longer in PRSI. Yes, that was very irresponsible for the FEMA acting director to say publicly.

But yeah, that’s usually the message that we want to convey leading up to a hurricane’s approach: The track is given with the highest degree of confidence that we can give, but often that confidence is fairly low. That’s why the cone is there. And Florida is very much in the cone, with currently about a 1/3 chance of seeing a direct landfall — and that’s ignoring the devastation that would still happen if Dorian hugs the coastline.

I’m not a betting man, but those aren’t odds I’d be willing to take either way. I’ve said it before in the thread: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

 

[Rogifan]

I want to say something but the thread’s no longer in PRSI. Yes, that was very irresponsible for the FEMA acting director to say publicly.

But yeah, that’s usually the message that we want to convey leading up to a hurricane’s approach: The track is given with the highest degree of confidence that we can give, but often that confidence is fairly low. That’s why the cone is there. And Florida is very much in the cone, with currently about a 1/3 chance of seeing a direct landfall — and that’s ignoring the devastation that would still happen if Dorian hugs the coastline.

I’m not a betting man, but those aren’t odds I’d be willing to take either way. I’ve said it before in the thread: Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Where I live (Minnesota) the weather people have a hard time predicting if it’s going to be sunny or cloudy. I can’t even begin to imagine what it’s like at the NHC right now. You don’t want to cause mass panic but at the same time want people to be prepared for the worst. It’s a fine line they have to walk.

 

[ucfgrad93]

Wow, this storm is a monster. To all of you in the SE United States, make sure you don’t let your guard down just yet.

 

[Gutwrench]

Where I live (Minnesota) the weather people have a hard time predicting if it’s going to be sunny or cloudy. I can’t even begin to imagine what it’s like at the NHC right now. You don’t want to cause mass panic but at the same time want people to be prepared for the worst. It’s a fine line they have to walk.

The Minnesota weather people are always right. It’s always going to rain, snow, or be sunny somewhere in Minnesota. Beyond the next 12-24 hours is a crap shoot but that’s good enough for me.

 

[Rogifan]

New update. Speed increased from 7 to 8 mph.

Location: 26.5°N 77.0°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

 

[ucfgrad93]

911 mb
185 max sustained winds!!!???

Wow, this is a dangerous, dangerous storm!

 

[jonblatho]

911 mb
185 max sustained winds!!!???

Wow, this is a dangerous, dangerous storm!

Yep, Dorian has made landfall on Elbow Cay in the northwestern Bahamas with sustained winds at 185 mph, which I believe would tie the Atlantic record for highest wind speed at landfall with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane (pending reanalysis during the off-season).

 

[0388631]

Compared to the 2017 storms, is this as bad or worse?

 

[Rogifan]

New Euro run has it closer to Florida coast. It’s possible this shifts the cone a hair with the 5pm update. Sigh.

 

[jerwin]

Compared to the 2017 storms, is this as bad or worse?

2017

2018

2019

However, hurricane seasons are most active during September and October, so it's too early to judge. Moreover, the cultural impact of a hurricane season depends on where the storms land.

 

[jonblatho]

With the 5 PM full advisory, Dorian remains at 185 mph. Some videos circulating around Twitter from the Bahamas show the sheer power of this storm’s wind, storm surge, and rain.

Much of Florida’s Atlantic coast is now under a hurricane warning, and a landfall in Florida remains very possible — onc can argue that it is becoming increasingly likely — with major impacts likely either way.

Again for anyone from Florida’s Atlantic coast to the eastern Carolinas, listen to the National Hurricane Center and your local NWS office — and your local authorities should evacuations be ordered.

 

[max2]

It is moving 5 to 6 mph now!

 

[Gutwrench]

Much of Florida’s Atlantic coast is now under a hurricane warning, and a landfall in Florida remains very possible — arguably increasingly so — with major impacts likely either way.

What do you intend this sentence to mean? Does “arguably increasingly so” mean making landfall in Floria is becoming more or less likely?

 

[max2]

What do you intend this sentence to mean? Does “arguably increasingly so” mean making landfall in Floria is becoming more or less likely?

Higher chance of second landfall.

Why ?

 

[Gutwrench]

Higher chance of second landfall.

Why ?

I wanted to understand it.

 

[jonblatho]

What do you intend this sentence to mean? Does “arguably increasingly so” mean making landfall in Floria is becoming more or less likely?

More likely — I meant it to mean "one can argue that it is increasingly likely."

Edited to clarify.

 

[Gutwrench]

More likely — I meant it to mean "one can argue that it is increasingly likely."

That’s how I read it but wanted to be certain. This thread is pretty much my single source of hurricane info. Thanks jonblath and max2.

 

[Huntn]

Sunday status:

 

[Herdfan]

Greg Postel from The Weather Channel just tweeted wind gusts of over 200 MPH. He says he’s never seen that before. Everyone on the Florida east coast should be prepared. Just a slight change in the track and it’s disaster.
https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1168166270312820736?s=20

My thoughts are with you. Be safe. Fingers crossed this stays out at sea.

I saw a chart on TWC today showing the all-time strongest storms and Dorian is in 2nd place by 5mph behind only Allen and is 10mph stronger than Camille.

Daughter in Savannah probably leaving tomorrow morning after the 11am update unless it shows a hard shift east.

 

[jonblatho]

8 PM EDT intermediate advisory just in — still 185 mph, with a 5-hPa pressure rise to 915 hPa. Seems like Dorian may have found its ceiling at last — as it continues to interact with land, and especially as it begins to interact with the Florida peninsula over the next day, further intensification is unlikely.

Full advisory package coming at 11 PM EDT, including perhaps a modified forecast. The details of Dorian’s interactions with Grand Bahama — the notorious “island wobbles” — may have a significant impact on Dorian’s track, along with observed changes in forward speed, so that’s something to watch.

Dorian’s center has been nicely visible from Miami’s radar for much of the day:

 

[ucfgrad93]

This storm reminds me of Hurricane Mitch in 1998.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

 

[jonblatho]

From radar and satellite it seems pretty clear by now that Dorian is taking longer than forecast by the NHC and many models to begin its northward turn, and it seems to be moving a bit faster than anticipated. Some are holding out hope that it’s just a wobble as Dorian interacts with Grand Bahama, but that seems decreasingly likely with time.

Not good news for Florida.

 

[Rogifan]

11 pm update. Now New Jersey is in the cone. Good grief!

 

[jonblatho]

11 PM advisory in. Dorian has made landfall on Grand Bahama.

Winds now at 180 mph sustained, pressure essentially steady at 914 hPa. NHC forecast track remaining just offshore for now as before, slightly closer and certainly close enough to cause major impacts. Hurricane watch has been extended northward to the Florida–Georgia line.

Will be interesting to see how Dorian’s position evolves overnight and the effects downstream, especially as it’s still not turning northward yet.