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menziep

macrumors 6502a
Jan 21, 2006
527
1
codom said:
The top end Apple tower will have the following spec

AMD 125000 processor
600Gb RAM
125Tb Hard Drive
NVidia 17700GT with 1Tb RAM
HD-DVD 2 Extreme with 2TB storage per disc

MacOS XI 11.0 "Spinal Tap"

Price $999

Great Specs
Nice Price (but if econmics go as they are then Thats Expensive)
 

Jon'sLightBulbs

macrumors 6502a
Jan 31, 2005
524
0
Chicago
In the year 3000...

in the year three thousund!

In the year three thousand, a small cult of computer users will drive volvo station wagons with Windows bumper stickers as a symbol of rebellion against the computing norm.
 

rockandrule

macrumors 6502
Aug 3, 2004
448
0
Jacksonville, FL
Yeah, Apple will actually dominate the world and take all of our computers away so we can do no harm......... or just so we can't dish out anymore trade secrets ;)
 

menziep

macrumors 6502a
Jan 21, 2006
527
1
~Shard~ said:
Great, so now when a hard drive fails in the future, people will be losing even more of their data. :rolleyes: It's bad enough to lose 120 GB of data if your HD fails nowadays, but losing 1 PB of data?!?

Has no one in the storage industry ever heard the phrase, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"? :p :D

true But If you can Afforred a PB then u can Affored to Get Aback up drive

And If u need a petabyte HD then u Are most probably Working on Very High End video editing stuff

EDIT:sorry for Spelling
 

jacobj

macrumors 65816
Apr 22, 2003
1,124
87
Jersey
sam10685 said:
what is an electron?

Well, there's an apple and that apple is made up of molecules (really tiny little bits of apple) and those molecules are made up of atoms and the atoms are made up of electrons, protons and neutrons and they're made of quarks and leptons - oops, overshot the mark there.

Electrons are really really tiny bits of things (unless you are a neutrino, in which case they are huge and if you're a theoretical neutralino it's a little big as well) and they carry a negative electrical charge, whereas protons are positive and neutrons are, well, neutral.

So the electrons, protons and neutrons are like flour, water and yeast. Ultimaltely they are the three ingredients to a molecule as are flour water and yeast the 3 ingredients of bread, but depending on the quantities and how you mix them you get different breads: the same is true of molecules....

and now I'm bored..sorry.

Oh, yeah 10-15 years time. Well we might be in a pickle because we will probably reach the limits of current CPU technology by then, meaning that we will either be stagnant, or making huge leaps, and I mean huge. As for storage etc, well TBs will be run of the mill, 512 GBs of RAM seems reasonable, GPUs will do real time cinema effects with ease and we'll be using thought control ;)

PS. I love this quantum stuff. How can you not when physicists give particles names like WIMPS and MACHOS or Up, Down, Bottom and Top, or Charms, Bosons and the little ones that hold things together, yep, they're Gluons.... you've got to at least smile, even if you don't get it and to be honest I get lost at just about here......

PPS I've just read page 2 and I feel quite inadequate. I really should have done that physics degree... anyway, Shard is right, physics is still in its infancy and there are those that speculate that we will never be able to grasp the full breadth of knowledge to be had because our brains just can't reach that level. I for one am backing the physicists: they're crafty and tenacious little sh*ts and they make the universe more fun to be in, because they explain just how wonderful the universe is.
 

altair

macrumors regular
Nov 22, 2002
221
0
Seattle, WA
blackfox said:
man, we (collectively) cannot even agree on educated guesses on Mac models later this year - so looking forward 10-15 years doesn't look promising in terms of reliability.

People tend to think linearly about these things - but over that span of time, advances will come about that we would never have expected -and thus cannot speculate about.

For the hell of it, however - I would imagine that Apple as we know it would no longer exist.

It is probable that our clothing, paint on our walls, carpet (etc) will all have "computers" embedded within them, allowing them to wash themselves, change color according to user mood/programability. The possibilities are so endless and somewhat unforseeable as new needs foster new utilities by these technologies. There will be a ****-load of personally-catered advertising.

In any case, in a world like this - hardware will be defined by it's invisibility, as most people will not need to utilize computer power beyond a certain threshold (then again, maybe not). It will probably come down to software and programming at this point. So Apple, if it exists, will be defined less by shiny boxes and more by UI and software innovation...

That is my completely off-the-cuff speculation.

This is the sort of predictions that made people in the 50's think that by 2000 there would be flying cars and crap. 10 years ago was 1996, and 15, 1991, not that much has changed since then. Couple new processors, LCD screens, nothing insane though.

10-15 years isn't as far away as you might think.
 

MarkCollette

macrumors 68000
Mar 6, 2003
1,559
36
Toronto, Canada
Timepass said:
problem is some of that stuff is impossible to do.
Namely the processor speed and the DVD drive.
The max speed a Processor can ever really go is around 7-8ghz since you are getting to around the max speed of an eletron around then.
As for the DVD they would spin to fast for the DVD to structully handle and they would fly apart.

It's possible to increase optical read and write speeds by using more lasers, working in parallel, instead of just increasing rotation speed.


portent said:
Not true at all. IBM demonstrated silicon-based transistors operating at 350 GHz, and the University of Illinois has demonstrated transistors at over 600 GHz.

These transistors can't be used to build entire processors yet, but there's no theoretical reason that we couldn't have a 300GHz processor one day. It may never be practical, but it should be possible.

It has nothing to do with the "speed of an electron." You don't speed up the electrons; you just move the components closer together. That way, the electrons have less distance to travel, and get there faster. The limit is in how small you can make the components.

Historically, most CPUs have been designed with synchronous logic, which means that all parts of the CPU have to work together in lock-step. The clock sends a pulse, throughout the CPU, that keeps everything in sync. Some CPU operations take a while to happen, and some happen quickly. But, the clock is constrained by the slowest operation. So, if it takes 1 nanosecond for the slowest operation to happen, then the duration between clock ticks must be at least 1 nanosecond, which means that the frequency of the clock is at most 1 gigahertz (1 billionth of a second -> 1 billion hertz).

So, what makes these operations take up so much time?

  • Well, the CPU has to store state, in things like registers and control flags. Think of it like each storage location, for a bit (a 1 or 0), has to fill up with electrons, or empty out its electrons, which takes time.
  • Also, electrons have to propagate across the CPU, from one part to another, along wires. The speed of light is around 300,000,000 meters per second, which is about 3e8 m/s in scientific notation. But, propagation of electrons in a metal is slower than light in a vacuum, so let's just say around 1e8 m/s. Now, a CPU is around 1 cm across, and the time it would take an electron to move from one side of the CPU, say where the clock is, to the other, where some state has to be stored, is about 1e10 cm/s. So, it would take 1/10 of a nanosecond, and thus the CPU could not run faster than 10 GHz.

Ok, so even if a transistor can change between open and closed states at 300 GHz, that doesn't change the propagation limit.

But, it's more complicated than that. First off, the clock itself, being an electrical signal, takes time to propagate. So, if you know every state the CPU can be in, and can calculate how the clock will propogate, then you don't need everything to be done before starting the next pulse, but only need it to be done before the next pulse hits that spot.

A much simpler thing to do is to give different parts of the CPU their own clocks, and make them run as fast as each part can go, and just make them talk when they need to pass info back and forth.

Which is really just a limited special case of asynchronous logic. With asynchronous logic, a part of the CPU doing work just has to signal when it's done, and not rely on a clock at all to keep things working together. Think of it like with the old synchronous logic, we plan before-hand to meet with our friends at 1pm and 3pm and 5pm. But asynchronous logic means when we're ready, we just call whoever needs to know something, with our cell phones.

Ok, so say we use the spiffy transistors that change state faster, and we make things smaller, so the propagation delays are small, then we still have current leaking, because with things so small, we're squeezing less electrons through smaller wires.

These thing might be solved by going optical, but that raises its own set of issues.

Personally, while I do think we'll get CPUs into the tens of gigahertz, I don't think it will go further, which is why most chip manufacturers have given up on that end, and are all going for multiple cores working in parallel.
 

iPhil

macrumors 68040
menziep said:


The petabyte drive is still a dream even @ 4-5 years as Mr. thomas thinks it'll be out in the public by then .. Petabyte drive is the 3rd in line only if count from GB number.. GB is 10 to the 9th power/TB is 10 to the 12th power/PB is 10 to the 15th power. So IF Mr. Thomas is right on PetaByte (PB) drives in 5 yrs then the Terabyte drive era would have be going speed of light on R&D to even try to get PB drives feasible..

This link is the site were i got the size info on HDDs


~Shard~ said:
Great, so now when a hard drive fails in the future, people will be losing even more of their data. It's bad enough to lose 120 GB of data if your HD fails nowadays, but losing 1 PB of data?!?

Has no one in the storage industry ever heard the phrase, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket"?


No!! they've being living under a rock for the past 20 yrs or so :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

Just think of losing YB of data:eek: :eek:
 

~Shard~

macrumors P6
Jun 4, 2003
18,377
48
1123.6536.5321
sushi said:
Very nice interface.

I wonder how dirty hands will affect it?

I'm thinking if they can develop that kind of technology, they can develop a membrane/coating which will not allow fingerprints to affect the screen. ;) That seems like it would be the least of their worries... :cool:
 

sushi

Moderator emeritus
Jul 19, 2002
15,639
3
キャンプスワ&#
~Shard~ said:
I'm thinking if they can develop that kind of technology, they can develop a membrane/coating which will not allow fingerprints to affect the screen. ;) That seems like it would be the least of their worries... :cool:
Maybe.

I conduct well so I always seem to have problems with touch technologies.
 

toothpaste

macrumors 6502
May 8, 2005
293
5
It is not in our nature as human beings to give up. If Moore's Law is finally reached, when we hit a wall and can't come up with another way around it, we will make a new way. Always have always will. So in 15 years many things could propel us further than we think is possible now. It's only a matter of time, before the machine become too smart for our good. :eek: :D
 

andrew050703

macrumors regular
Feb 27, 2006
150
0
Portsmouth, U.K
Timepass said:
umm yeah about that. might like to correct some things for you. For exampe eletrons obiting a hydrogen atom at about 1/5 the speed of light if I rememeber correctly and right now it is to late for me to bother trying to calculated it. Also noghting can go the speed of light and yes that includes eletrons.

Arrgghh! How can people misuse physics to argue little points?

Electrons orbiting? NO!!! Electrons do not orbit! I thought we moved away from the classical particle theory about 80 years ago; we are now in the world of quantum physics - incidently, recent quantum computer experiments show they will work when not running!? (see http://www.newscientist.com)

Nothing can go faster than the speed of light? Of course they can! Not Star Trek or anything Scifi, just do a search for group velocity and phase velocity - turns out you can have one well above the speed of light (can't remember which at this point), it's just that no information can be passed at the speed of light (which i guess amounts to the same thing really).

With regards to the speed of electrons in processors; yes they don't travel at the speed of light due to resistance, but I think that mainstream superconducting computers will come around faster than quantum computers...
 

sushi

Moderator emeritus
Jul 19, 2002
15,639
3
キャンプスワ&#
~Shard~ said:
Don't worry, I hear many women find that very attractive... :D
Yeah, opposites attract! :D

Showed the video to my class tonight. They loved it.

I think they enjoyed the photo portion and the mapping portion the most. Both were easy to use and pretty intuitive.
 

galstaph

macrumors 6502a
Jul 24, 2002
812
2
The Great White North Eh
|Originally Posted by ~Shard~
|Simple - they will look like this.
|
|After all, Apple already has patents on this technology.
_______________________________________________

Nice reminds me of latter iterations of star-trek type controls....
I think that in 10 years computing will be relativley the same only the components will change. Mechanical hard drives will most likely be replaced with a flash derivative or organic storage solution. Processors will be smaller, more efficient and possibly intellegent.
Who is to say, anything could happen, heck we could be hit by a meteor tomorrow and be back thrust back into the dark ages for all we know.

One thing is certian, if we do have computers in 10/15y windows will take 1TB+ for lite install:D and Macs will still be using less space more elegantly.

BTW: Physics (and all knowledge) is all comprised of made up explanations and postulations for something we cannot understand fully, our understanding is an approximation and nothing is an absolute truth or definitive answer - always challenge the "truth" for that leads to greater progression.
 
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