In 3 years, 50% of all computers capable of playing AAA games will be Macs

[salamanderjuice]

That's what I've been saying. It's doesn't feel right to include handheld gaming devices in the stats for desktop Linux systems. It's like including iPad numbers in the Mac stats.

The whole point of the Steam survey is to give game developers insight into the hardware and software of players on Steam. So including handheld gaming PCs that run Steam makes perfect sense. It's not a survey about desktop computer use.

And SteamOS is still just a full desktop Linux. You can switch to desktop mode, run full fat Chrome or Firefox, compile C++ code, etc. It's completely different from the iPad that has a whole heap of limitations and entirely different apps.

 

[maflynn]

The whole point of the Steam survey is to give game developers insight into the hardware and software of players on Steam. So including handheld gaming PCs that run Steam makes perfect sense.

The logic can be applied to games being played on crossover. From a developer's perspective they made a sale when someone buys the game and plays it via crossover. There's no need to invest in macos platform when their customers are already playing it on the mac (via crossover).

 

[jlc1978]

The logic can be applied to games being played on crossover. From a developer's perspective they made a sale when someone buys the game and plays it via crossover. There's no need to invest in macos platform when their customers are already playing it on the mac (via crossover).

Excellant point. A developer can sell into the MacOS market with very little expense via Crossover or other tools that allow them to package a game for the MacOS market without a massive rewrite. At worst, they may need to make some changes to work better with Crossover, as long as that does not impact the Windows playability. The ROI isn't there to do a MacOS native version, no matter how powerful the native machine is; no matter how bad a segment of the MacOS wants AAA games.

A robust platform to run Windows games on top of MacOS is the best hope for more games on the Mac; they won't have Mac like interfaces however.

 

[macfacts]

Linux is a solid OS, but the very thing that makes it useful, i.e. being OSS and modifiable, hampers it in the desktop arena. a user is faced with the 'tyranny of choice' when deciding which to use, and even so many distros aren't exactly plug and play.

some distros can be installed or run from a bootable USB stick, that is the definition of plug and play.

 

[dmccloud]

So you view 26.42% of 100% as a small insignificant factor? It’s 0.85% of 3.2%, not 100%. I’m talking about the overall growth since Steam Deck was released in Feb 2022. Linux market share in Nov grew by 0.15%, in Oct 0.37%, in Sep 0.04%, since July 0.31%.

It’s true that SteamOS’s market share has been declining from 45% in May 2024 to 26% in Dec 2025 but it still is a big factor. SteamOS/Deck makes up almost a third of the Linux Steam market share. Soon the numbers for Steam Machine will be added to the survey too.

Steam Linux Market Share | GamingOnLinux

Steam Linux user share statistics over time

www.gamingonlinux.com

1. Using simple math, with Linux at 3.2% of the overall user base, Steam OS comprising 26.42% of Linux users translates into 0.84544% of the overall user base. While that "may" be significant for Linux itself, it is statistically insignificant overall. You also just conceded that the growth of Linux as a platform is far and away outpacing Steam OS. Steam OS has dropped from almost half the Linux user base to just over 1/4 of the base (rather than almost a third) in 18 months. This is because the growth of Linux as a whole is outpacing adoption of Steam OS. The other consideration is that since Windows 10 just went EOL in October, it might take 2-3 months for the shift from Windows to Linux to be truly reflected in the Steam surveys. Most of those ditching Windows will not be installing Steam OS on their gaming rigs.

2. Given that Valve won't even offer estimates as to how much the Steam Machine will cost, it's premature to assume that it will have a significant impact on the market, especially if the rumors of desktop-like pricing are correct. Valve could price out a significant segment of the market if they go that route. Given how insane the PC component market is right now, I would bet that SM will cost between $800-1000, which means it's competing against desktop gaming PCs rather than gaming consoles, and that likely will not result in significant market traction.

Bonus: Two news notes from Daily.dev are very pertinent to this discussion:

• Linux desktop gaming gets a major boost: Valve is seriously investing in Linux gaming, developing Waydroid for Android app compatibility on Steam Deck and funding the FEX emulation project for x86-to-ARM translation. This means more games and apps will run smoothly on Linux, especially on ARM64 devices. Meanwhile, Mesa 25.3 brings significant updates to open-source graphics drivers, enhancing Vulkan and OpenGL performance, fixing rendering issues in games under Proton, and improving ray tracing. Mesa 26.0 is also set to support massive 64,000 x 64,000 pixel textures for AMD RDNA4 GPUs, according to Linux Weekly News and technical release notes, making Linux a more competitive gaming and professional graphics platform.
• Windows 10 end-of-life drives Linux adoption: With Windows 10 reaching end-of-life, organized campaigns are actively promoting Linux as a viable alternative, leading to a measurable increase in Linux desktop market share, now estimated at 3%. Events like the ‘End of 10’ campaign and an upcoming Linux Install Fest in Belgrade are providing resources and workshops to ease the transition for users. This shift, coupled with Intel’s declining chip market position against ARM and AMD, suggests a broader change in the computing landscape, as reported by retrospective analyses and event organizers.
  

 

[jlc1978]

some distros can be installed or run from a bootable USB stick, that is the definition of plug and play.

I did not say all, but many. Even so, there may be stuff needed to be down to make it plug and play; and then there is the issue of file incompatibility. Like I said, there is nothing wrong with Linux and for some it works just fine; but it is not,IMHO, ready for mainstream use.

 

[macfacts]

I did not say all, but many. Even so, there may be stuff needed to be down to make it plug and play; and then there is the issue of file incompatibility. Like I said, there is nothing wrong with Linux and for some it works just fine; but it is not,IMHO, ready for mainstream use.

most people that use windows or Mac OS have no idea how to install windows or Mac OS and can only use them because they came pre-installed

 

[jlc1978]

most people that use windows or Mac OS have no idea how to install windows or Mac OS and can only use them because they came pre-installed

And since they come preinstalled knowing how to install them is not an issue, unlike Linux.

 

[maflynn]

most people that use windows or Mac OS have no idea how to install windows

Only people who build PCs have had to install windows from scratch. I'd say 99% of computer users have never installed an operating system

And since they come preinstalled knowing how to install them is not an issue, unlike Linux.

Nope, they've never had the joy of trying to find a driver for their audio, or get their nvidia driver working. Editing conf files to get the system working is a feature they never enjoyed

This is where Valve absolutely knocked it out of the park, they provided a Linux appliance that needed zero configurations/tweaks/work by the consumer. Its a fully functioning product with the messier linux stuff hidden from them

 

[jlc1978]

Nope, they've never had the joy of trying to find a driver for their audio, or get their nvidia driver working. Editing conf files to get the system working is a feature they never enjoyed

For most user, no they haven't experienced those joys since they simply use it out of the box; especially since all of that is integrated into the machine now. They don't want to find a distro, decide what GUI they want, try to find programs that are compatible (Mostly) with teh files 90% or more of the rest of the world uses. They want a machine that works out of the box, and that means Windows or MacOS.

Linux is a good OS, and fine for the hobbyist, OSS purist, or in niche markets; but it is not ready for prime time and probably never will be. Linux' biggest strength - being OSS, is also it's Achilles Heal, IMHO. Without some overall unifying approach to GUI, compatibility, etc., it offers confusing choices to the mainstream non-technical user. It's not as bad as it was 30 years ago, but beyond specialized markets it's still very much a hobbyist product.

Linux' biggest hope is Europe (cue Star Wars Main Title), where the current political climate vis a vie the US administration makes breaking free of US tech appealing. It will be interesting to see how it goes and how far it goes.

This is where Valve absolutely knocked it out of the park, they provided a Linux appliance that needed zero configurations/tweaks/work by the consumer. Its a fully functioning product with the messier linux stuff hidden from them

I agree. They found a niche with a product that appeals to their existing user base and is a compliment to their existing product. Their main challenge will be how to not lose money on each machine sold. It probably won't be anywhere near powerful enough for the hard core gamer, and the casual gamer already has a console or Switch or PC to play what they want; so how do you sell enough to get economies of scale without pricing at a loss?

Will those mass market consumers want to shell out for yet another gaming device? Will they be able to lock in users to be able to only play games from their service? Considering it's Linux inside, probably not, especially for the more tech savvy buyer, the very demographic they are appealing to.

 

[maflynn]

Linux is a good OS, and fine for the hobbyist

Oh no question, I've used many flavors of Linux over the years, and its also come a long way since when I tried it in the late 90s. I don't see it ever becoming a dominant force on the desktop, simply because MS and Apple have that market locked up, and the simplicity of just turning on your PC or Mac and using it is far easier then what Linux is able to provide.

 

[salamanderjuice]

Oh no question, I've used many flavors of Linux over the years, and its also come a long way since when I tried it in the late 90s. I don't see it ever becoming a dominant force on the desktop, simply because MS and Apple have that market locked up, and the simplicity of just turning on your PC or Mac and using it is far easier then what Linux is able to provide.

Y'all just seem to be dancing around the main problem with Linux is that it isn't commonly pre-installed out of the box. You look at the Steam Deck where it is and it's a better experience than what Microsoft provides. That's the main problem. A sensible KDE or GNOME distro like Fedora or Ubuntu would work fine for most people especially as so much now is just web browser based.

There isn't really a plug and play issue or a file incompatibility issue, the first one is honestly kinda laughable as Linux has better hardware support than macOS and there's many instances of hardware considered dead on Windows that still works fine on modern Linux.

 

[macfacts]

also Microsoft has made it hard/complicated to dual boot windows and Linux by needing encrypted partitions for Windows so people can't even try Linux, so you have to pick all windows or all Linux. most people aren't going to buy a new PC to run Linux

 

[maflynn]

also Microsoft has made it hard/complicated to dual boot windows and Linux

Didn't Apple make it impossible to install anything other then macos on the internal drive? There's only one native Linux for apple silicon but that's limited to the M1and M2. Without support for current chips, this version of linux won't really gain much adoption

 

[diamond.g]

also Microsoft has made it hard/complicated to dual boot windows and Linux by needing encrypted partitions for Windows so people can't even try Linux, so you have to pick all windows or all Linux. most people aren't going to buy a new PC to run Linux

Aside from turning secure boot off, it shouldn't be anymore difficult than it ever has been.

 

[jlc1978]

Y'all just seem to be dancing around the main problem with Linux is that it isn't commonly pre-installed out of the box.

That's Linux' chicken and egg problem. Companies won't sell Linux boxes because most potential customershaven't heard of Linux and will stck with one of teh two major OS choices. Since consumers don't buy Linux, companies don't ofer it; Dell tried bt as far as I can tell pretty much stopped for the average consumer/business user.

You look at the Steam Deck where it is and it's a better experience than what Microsoft provides.

Howvere, better is useless if it is not bought by consumers. It will be interesting t see how it fairs in the market.

That's the main problem. A sensible KDE or GNOME distro like Fedora or Ubuntu would work fine for most people especially as so much now is just web browser based.

Probably, but then you have different interface desigsns, package mgers, etc,; all thing sthat would confuse a regular user that does anything except browse the web out of the box.

Web-based breaks down quickly when you need something that isn't web based and doesn't have a Linux version.

There isn't really a plug and play issue or a file incompatibility issue, the first one is honestly kinda laughable as Linux has better hardware support than macOS

Of course, since MacOS only runs on Macs (except for Hackintoshes, which are bery niche and beyond the avergae user).

and there's many instances of hardware considered dead on Windows that still works fine on modern Linux.

Again, that's fine for a hobbyist that will not be frustrated by having to tinker with it. Linux is great for keeping old hardware out of the landfill; but that's hardly a mainstream use. That's not to say Linux is bad, I've played around with it over the years and am playing around with it to run an arcade machine, just that it is not a real alternative in today's market.

 

[salamanderjuice]

That's Linux' chicken and egg problem. Companies won't sell Linux boxes because most potential customershaven't heard of Linux and will stck with one of teh two major OS choices. Since consumers don't buy Linux, companies don't ofer it; Dell tried bt as far as I can tell pretty much stopped for the average consumer/business user.



Howvere, better is useless if it is not bought by consumers. It will be interesting t see how it fairs in the market.



Probably, but then you have different interface desigsns, package mgers, etc,; all thing sthat would confuse a regular user that does anything except browse the web out of the box.

Web-based breaks down quickly when you need something that isn't web based and doesn't have a Linux version.



Of course, since MacOS only runs on Macs (except for Hackintoshes, which are bery niche and beyond the avergae user).



Again, that's fine for a hobbyist that will not be frustrated by having to tinker with it. Linux is great for keeping old hardware out of the landfill; but that's hardly a mainstream use. That's not to say Linux is bad, I've played around with it over the years and am playing around with it to run an arcade machine, just that it is not a real alternative in today's market.

The Steam Deck is already the most successful handheld PC by a pretty large stretch.

Different interface designs and package managers are irrelevant when the out of the box distro has already made the choice for the user. And it's not 1999 anymore. Every big distro these days has a GUI based app store type thing. Installing a new app is about as hard as a phone. One could argue that macOS has a package manager problem too, it doesn't come with one in box and there's multiple viable options like Homebrew, Nix and MacPorts.

There's plenty of external hardware that doesn't play nice with macOS, for example macOS doesn't support MST so a lot of dual video output USB C hubs just mirror the output. Nor can I plug in my original Xbox controller with an adapter. And for Mac Pros that have internal card slots, well there's plenty that also won't work. Good luck putting a Radeon RX 9070 XT in a 2019 Mac Pro while running macOS for example. All those things work on Linux.

 

[jlc1978]

The Steam Deck is already the most successful handheld PC by a pretty large stretch.

Considering how few of themhave been brought to market, that's not saying that much. It may be a great device but, IMHO, it's actual commercial success is very much in doubt, if you expect it to become a mainstream product.

Different interface designs and package managers are irrelevant when the out of the box distro has already made the choice for the user.

It matters when you have different GUIs on say a work and home machine.

And it's not 1999 anymore. Every big distro these days has a GUI based app store type thing. Installing a new app is about as hard as a phone.

Unless, of course, the app has some dependencies you don't have. My point, though, is Linux offers no advantages over Windows/MacOS for most users, and as a niche product has little to offer them.

One could argue that macOS has a package manager problem too, it doesn't come with one in box and there's multiple viable options like Homebrew, Nix and MacPorts.

App Store

There's plenty of external hardware that doesn't play nice with macOS, for example macOS doesn't support MST so a lot of dual video output USB C hubs just mirror the output. Nor can I plug in my original Xbox controller with an adapter. And for Mac Pros that have internal card slots, well there's plenty that also won't work. Good luck putting a Radeon RX 9070 XT in a 2019 Mac Pro while running macOS for example.

However, the avergae user has no need for such things and isn't running an EOL Mac Pro. That's why I have said Linux is a good OS, but it's a hobbyist and niche uses product, not mainstream.

All those things work on Linux.

Provided you have installed all the right drivers and dependencies.

I've never claimed that MacOS or Windows makes it easy to add new hardware, just that they are the two major players and Linux really can't compete with them, for reasons I have already stated.

The average user doesn't care about OSS, the GPL, etc,; they want a machine that works out of the box, runs the same programs they use at work if needed, etc.