well when mine got updated it was actually one of the cc charges that told me action was happening. First the Tax Charge then the first installment. I have UPS My Choice and I looked on there and it showed a package in China for AI.
Then a bit later, my support profile showed a Serial Number, then if my memory serves, the status changed to preparing for shipment on the Apple Store under orders. My app was updating me when I turned it on also with a banner showing the status. After that My Choice was the one telling me what was happening with my phone.
Ok. So I have a pending charge for the tax, from yesterday, but no first installment yet...so I will look out for the installment charge, then check my Choice. Thanks!