Microsoft is getting less and less relevant in the consumer market with each year. They still have a strong foothold in the enterprise market, because businesses don't like change and have already dropped a lot of cash on software and support contracts and what have you, but consumers switch at the drop of a hat and Windows is a dying product in the consumer market.
Your argument glosses over why the market is doing what it’s doing. It’s splitting into two segments: One where tablets and smartphones can replace a full-fat laptop/desktop, and one where it can’t. But even then, for folks like me who need a laptop/desktop to do things that tablets currently can’t, we are buying them less frequently, which just makes sales numbers look even worse.
Since the post I was responding to was talking about laptop/desktop users, that first segment is irrelevant for the discussion. So it doesn’t matter if Microsoft is getting more or less relevant to the wider market, just to the market of users who want/need a laptop/desktop machine (i.e. what we currently think of as the x86 market).
But either way, sales isn’t the thing to be paying attention to here, but rather user base. What is the user base doing? What would it take to move them off x86/x64 and onto ARM or some other architecture? And the reality is that Microsoft enjoys a very large share of the active user base. They have 1 billion active users on Windows 10. PCs and consoles have about equal share of the gaming community user base, and on PC, Windows has the lion‘s share of gamers. Content creation has yet to be turned into a web app or brought to Android/iOS tablets in any real capacity beyond being a companion for a desktop app.
If desktops want to go ARM or some other architecture, the tools/platforms people are using have to enable that. That’s the main point I’m getting at. And it‘s clear people care about that if you look at all the gnashing that happens every time Apple changes ISA about compatibility, and will Adobe support the new thing, etc, etc, etc. As long as Microsoft continues their “toe in the water” approach to ARM and other architectures, companies that make the tools people are using their Windows machines for won‘t come along for the ride. Apple doesn’t have the user share in the desktop market to force the issue alone either, nor does the ensemble of Linux distributions. As long as Microsoft continues to enjoy a 70+% user base share of desktops, any revolution will be entrenched in a corner of the desktop market.
Microsoft is smart enough to know this, which is why they tried so desperately to get into the smartphone and tablet markets, as that's where the consumers are heading. They failed to make a drop in the smartphone market even when they did an exclusive deal with Nokia and even later bought out Nokia's whole smartphone division for a few years. They practically couldn't give Windows Phones away. They failed to make a drop in the tablet market because everyone hated Windows 8, and while Windows 10 fixed all the problems of 8 for the desktop, it still makes for a poor tablet experience.
Believe me, I know full well the issues Microsoft has had in this space. I have a lot of experience in the Windows Phone space, and got to watch it all happen real time, and facepalm at the decisions being made, and at the lack of progress. That said, Windows 8 was a poor imitation of Windows Phone, in my view, and people were right to hate on it.
The worst part of it is that Microsoft didn’t need to “get into” the smartphone market, it practically helped invent the thing back around 2003 or so. It just utterly failed to properly invest in it and see where the puck was going, just like Blackberry and Nokia when Google and Apple came in and turned the business smartphone into what we see today.
Try to understand what I said above: THIS IS NOT MY IDEA, NOR AM I PROMOTING IT. I am just passing along information that I have heard. It is probably the reason that it is considered an advanced project, not something pending. Efficiency has very little to do with anything these days, most computers spend over 95% in idle states waiting for user input; in addition, performance that may be so limited today won't be in 10 years. Can you just imagine what CPUs will be like 10 years from now, especially the ML/AI cores? Of course, Intel will still be on their 14nm+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ process, but I am talking about AMD and Apple's SoCs.
The problem is that the idea has no merit, so of course people are going to pile onto it. It’s a sort of “Cold Fusion” idea. It sounds nice, but doesn’t actually have any meat on the bones. It’s not about efficiency, it’s about the fact that compilation hasn’t been well suited to fixed-function hardware. There hasn’t even been much progress in GPGPU-style acceleration of compiling software. Going full ASIC or even FPGA on this is not a small engineering task in the least. Worse, it would mean that you couldn’t adopt new language features without new hardware. That’s throwing away a huge advantage that programming languages currently enjoy.
As cmaier mentions, using LLVM bytecode as an ISA would make more sense. But even then, there’s not much benefit to be had. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Apple considered LLVM bytecode as an ISA at some point, but it’d still be mostly complicating things for the sake of complicating things. I do think there’s been some actual research into this space too, so I wonder if this is just a game of telephone.
I do know folks associated with Apple have poked around using Swift for a Mac kernel (there’s even a GitHub project for the prototype), and honestly, that sort of thing is more promising. Having done some hardware driver level work in Swift in the past, it’s got a lot of promise for this space, unlike say, the rumored Microsoft project to use .NET for the kernel.