Mark Gurman has a source in Apple's supply chain. The supply chain is not the most reliable gauge. But it's all he has. So he uses it, combined with his own Apple-sense to determine the most likely outcome. This can be right, this can be wrong. When a product is ramping up for release, there are indicators in the supply chain. But if a product is delayed, like in the case of the new iPads that have been delayed multiple times, the supply chain doesn't help tell that story until things fail to materialize.Given the number of guesses he has got Wrong. Is it safe to assume that he is a con artist?