Although Compuwar's sales figures look dismal for Pentax, the downturn in the economy may be a larger factor than the lack of Pentax's DSLR offerings. If Pentax keeps offering a great value,
Please note that I didn't intimate the problems are from a lack of offerings- the thing that worries me is that their margins are shrinking and their market share is shrinking
even while the digital camera market is growing.
Image Stabilazation, and backwards compatibility with lenses, they may survive. This year may be a pivotal year for a lot of companies, but to judge a companies viability in these challenging times on the sales figures may be a little less revealing.
But to judge them on their shrinking share and margins seems quite appropriate.
According to Nikon's sales figures from the last quarter they are down from a year ago to the tune of -813 million Yen:
www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2009/09_2qf_c_e.pdf
Yes, all ships sink when the tide lowers, but Nikon's margins are increasing- and in overall terms, Nikon's business is tied to semiconductors, just like Hoyas- so overall profitability is what's important and in terms of both companies, how the camera division is doing is what's important to this group.
Here is a relevant statement from Nikon's report:
On the other hand, the Imaging Products Business increased sales by expanding the product lines including digital SLR (single-lens reflex) cameras and compact digital cameras, in spite of the effect of the strong yen, due to the continued expansion of the digital camera market.
See, that- their camera business is increasing sales in a growing market segment even though the overall company isn't doing as well as last year.
Here's the rest of Nikon's report on their imaging systems division from the report you cite:
Although there were concerns about the subprime mortgage problem in the United States affecting the Imaging Products markets, the digital SLR (single-lens reflex) camera market continued to expand along with the interchangeable lens market. The compact digital camera market also continued to expand.
Under these circumstances, digital SLR cameras saw a significant increase in sales, with entry-level models D40 and D60, mid-range model D80, and advanced-level model for amateurs D300 all performing well. The product lineup was enhanced with the launch in July of D700, a high performance and highly functional model featuring the Nikon FX-format sensor, nearly identical to the size of 35mm film, the same as the flagship model D3, and the launch in September of D90, a mid-range model equipped with the worlds first built-in D Movie video recording function.
Compact digital cameras enjoyed a healthy increase in sales, particularly the new S series and P series products launched in March 2008, including COOLPIX S600 and COOLPIX P80.
Sales of interchangeable lenses increased significantly, owing to the steady sales of digital SLR camera kits and sales of such high-priced lenses as AF-S DX VR Zoom-NIKKOR ED18-200mm F3.5-5.6G (IF) remaining solid.
Further efforts are being made to enhance sales, marketing, and services in Russian market with large growth potential, commencing the operation of Nikon (Russia) LLC,. a sales subsidiary, in July 2008. In addition, service offerings were expanded for my Picturetown, an image storing and sharing site that integrates everything from storage to transmission of photographs online, thus proposing new ways of enjoying photographs. In addition, further cost reduction was sought through continued efforts to reinforce manufacturing by promoting procurement innovation, ensuring quality, and improving productivity.
As a result, in spite of the effect of the strong yen, Imaging Products Business segment net sales increased by 24.8% from the same period of the previous year to 337,205 million yen, and operating income increased by 8.3% to 41,986 million yen.
Now, if you're investing your money- which would you prefer, net sales up almost 25% or down over 26%? Also note that Nikon's Imaging Products revenues are 10x those of Hoya's Pentax division- so that profitability is a huge upside to an investor- assuming the rest of the company doesn't lose it!
That's why I (and many others) wonder how much fortitude Hoya has for the Pentax camera unit. Semiconductor-based revenues are down, both companies see that effect. LCD masks are up, both companies see that effect. Digital camera sales are up, only one of the two sees that effect.
There is nothing wrong with their equipment, but if they don't continue to fight they may loose the race.
That's a succinct synopsis, however I'd say at this point that continuing to fight may not even be enough.
Here's what's interesting to me in Nikon's report (and subsequently missing in Hoya's- which is why I stated my concerns as I did-)
Nikon's selling more cameras than ever, and making more money with them even as the Yen sucks (by being too strong) in North America and Europe at the same time (a huge issue for Japanese camera manufacturers, since they can't dump manufactured product in the opposite market like they used to.)
We *all* know the Coolpix line pretty-much blows chunks in terms of interesting and innovated products- and that the low end P&S market has the worst margins so spending a lot of money to compete there won't help you.
More interestingly, Nikon's handing out D40 and D60's like they're going out of style. We know all the 3rd parties offer more "bang for the buck" at the low end- but that's not selling cameras- price is. Now, if your margins are going south that's something you really
don't want to hear. It costs more to add more features. Nikon's doling out $700 18-200VR lenses like mince pies at Christmas and you're throwing anti-shake in the body (which eats into your margins) for free.
Importantly, Nikon's also selling more mid-range cameras- and that's where the real money is. The margins are great, the volumes are good- that's a sign of success. Lots of low end cameras are ok (Volume over unit price,) lots of high-end cameras is good (Margins over volume,) lots more mid-end cameras are the best (Volume and Margins!) Nikon appears to be selling well on all fronts, and while Q2 (the Japanese electronics companies almost all shift one quarter off the calendar year) isn't out of the woods, if you weren't doing well then, Q3 (the big holiday season) is going to be a big worry when it's a down season for everyone.
Finally, and this is
most interesting- Nikon is touting
lens sales! Your average DSLR owner buys 1.1-1.2 lenses. Lens sales are not usually a huge growth item. More importantly, a $700US lens usually isn't something you tout in your quarterly report as a hot seller. I'm guessing some optics execs got really good bonuses this year for the 18-200VR.
Looking at this, Nikon appears to be firing on all cylinders- high, mid and low market DSLRs, P&S cameras, and even lenses. Even battling with a much bigger Canon for market share, they're gaining share, raising profit margins and (from my interpretation) surprising themselves that the US economy hasn't yet hit them as negatively as they expected[1.]
Westside guy said:
plus the 80-400 which is just slightly below that class.
Nikon also makes an 80-200, however my
opinion is that the 80-400VR is much more than "just slightly below" that class. It's not on-par with the Canon 100-400, and it's not as sharp at 400mm as the Sigma 50-500mm is at 500mm. I've owned both the 80-400 and 50-500, and the 80-400 is well below the 70-200VR, 80-200 and 200-400VR in terms of image quality. It doesn't totally blow chunks, but it's not in the same league as the other super-telephoto zooms from Nikon nor at least one from Sigma.
[1] Canon is starting to make "bottom drops out in '09" noises, even with the industry pundits predicting 2012 as the year it all goes south. When the 800lb gorilla says he's going to be short of bananas, the 200lb gorilla has to be surprised he's still got all he can eat.