All iPads Is the iPad dying?

[AJB1971]

Very interesting data, although some charts do not match, but this is probably because they are based on very different type of stastistics...
I would have expected ipads to spike with the great hardware of the latest couple of years. Instead it would seem ipad air and air 2 were the biggest hits, and even the OG pro.... Maybe ipad mini explains part of the difference (mini 2 in 2013, mini 2 with lower price in 2014 and mini 4 in 2015). The cheaper ipads don't seem to have been massive hits.. The 2018 pro helped a bit but not a lot, and the mini 5 doesn't seem to have made miracles... Well with their OS updates Apple is making even the air 2 and the mini 4 still relevant today... So that might explain the stagnation too...
Anyway a breakdown per device, that only Apple has, would have given a much clearer picture...

I think there’s a tendency to concentrate on the Pro models on these forums as they appeal to enthusiasts, but they don’t represent the typical buyer. For example, the Air 3 didn’t get a good reception on here and yet a lot of the reviews said that it was the best iPad for most people (ignoring refurbs, deals, etc.).

In March 2019 they mentioned on an episode of the Vergecast that Apple told them that: ‘the base $329 iPad is by far the best selling iPad’. It’s the 20:52 mark -

Everything you need to know about Apple’s latest product updates

New iPad mini, iPad Air, and AirPods.

www.theverge.com

The Pro models will generate significantly more profit per unit and I would expect higher margins, but the volumes will be much lower.

It’s interesting to look back at how Apple has got to where it is now, concentrating on the mid-size models.

Up to the Air 2 everything was relatively straightforward, but things began to change when the Pro 9.7 was introduced. The Air 2 wasn’t actually replaced by the Pro 9.7, it stayed in production until the release of the 5th Generation iPad in March 2017.

I imagine that Apple hoped a lot of users of older iPads would upgrade to the Pro 9.7 or its successors, but they probably found that many weren’t prepared to pay the ever-increasing premiums. Instead, some may have opted for the cheaper 5th and 6th Generation iPads. Hence the introduction of the Air 3.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Air 4. If Apple does change the design - incorporating a full-screen display - I expect that will be much more successful than the Air 3. The question is how many people are likely to upgrade from a prospective base model iPad and how many are likely to downgrade from a prospective Pro model?

 

[Jedimindtrick]

The entry level Apple iPad is without a doubt the best bang for your buck in basic computing. What an iPad can offer for $329 (often times $279 on sale) is an absolute steal. If I only had $600 to spend on hardware, I’d go iPad + Logitech’s new keyboard trackpad + Apple Pencil. Very tough to find anything close to that package for $600.

 

[rui no onna]

Very interesting data, although some charts do not match, but this is probably because they are based on very different type of stastistics...
I would have expected ipads to spike with the great hardware of the latest couple of years. Instead it would seem ipad air and air 2 were the biggest hits, and even the OG pro.... Maybe ipad mini explains part of the difference (mini 2 in 2013, mini 2 with lower price in 2014 and mini 4 in 2015). The cheaper ipads don't seem to have been massive hits.. The 2018 pro helped a bit but not a lot, and the mini 5 doesn't seem to have made miracles... Well with their OS updates Apple is making even the air 2 and the mini 4 still relevant today... So that might explain the stagnation too...
Anyway a breakdown per device, that only Apple has, would have given a much clearer picture...

I remember looking at the Apple 10-K filings before and their ASP was ~$400, iirc. That suggests they sell a lot more entry level iPads than high end ones.

I know it doesn't seem like the basic iPads boosted sales much but the year over year drops were significant and probably would've been a lot worse if Apple hadn't released a $329 iPad. Of course, profits are lower on these models so even if it stemmed the bleed in terms of unit sales, hardware profits didn't go up by much. Probably helped boost services revenue, though.

 

[Expos of 1969]

The entry level Apple iPad is without a doubt the best bang for your buck in basic computing. What an iPad can offer for $329 (often times $279 on sale) is an absolute steal. If I only had $600 to spend on hardware, I’d go iPad + Logitech’s new keyboard trackpad + Apple Pencil. Very tough to find anything close to that package for $600.

You make a good point. However, I am finding my Samsung Galaxy Tab A (159 Euros on sale) is doing well without an external keyboard or pencil. Depends what your computing needs are of course. Sad to read that those who recently spent almost $400 for the Magic Keyboard are having problems having the trackpad work with their recently purchased $ 1200 iPad Pro.

 

[Digitalguy]

I remember looking at the Apple 10-K filings before and their ASP was ~$400, iirc. That suggests they sell a lot more entry level iPads than high end ones.

I know it doesn't seem like the basic iPads boosted sales much but the year over year drops were significant and probably would've been a lot worse if Apple hadn't released a $329 iPad. Of course, profits are lower on these models so even if it stemmed the bleed in terms of unit sales, hardware profits didn't go up by much. Probably helped boost services revenue, though.

I think Apple makes higher margin on their expensive accessories, like keyboards and pencils. So with the 2018 and 2019 basic ipads they made quite a lot of additional money through accessories... (same as with the pros since 2015....). So while sales are down since 2015, profits might still be quite good... (I don't know if there are any numbers on accessories sales...)

 

[rui no onna]

It’s interesting to look back at how Apple has got to where it is now, concentrating on the mid-size models.

Up to the Air 2 everything was relatively straightforward, but things began to change when the Pro 9.7 was introduced. The Air 2 wasn’t actually replaced by the Pro 9.7, it stayed in production until the release of the 5th Generation iPad in March 2017.

I imagine that Apple hoped a lot of users of older iPads would upgrade to the Pro 9.7 or its successors, but they probably found that many weren’t prepared to pay the ever-increasing premiums. Instead, some may have opted for the cheaper 5th and 6th Generation iPads. Hence the introduction of the Air 3.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the Air 4. If Apple does change the design - incorporating a full-screen display - I expect that will be much more successful than the Air 3. The question is how many people are likely to upgrade from a prospective base model iPad, and how many are likely to downgrade from a prospective Pro model?

The OG Air remained in production as well selling at $399 after the Air 2's release. Keeping the older iPad model as the entry level option has been standard practice for Apple. I can't remember with the iPad 1 but I know for sure they kept the iPad 2 as the $399 option along with the $499 iPad 3 and iPad 4.

I do agree with high end iPads becoming too expensive for most, though. We kept our iPad 3s for a long time only replacing them with 5th gen.

If I can get 1TB on the Air, I'd go with that. Alas, that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. I've always found the beefed up X chipsets too power hungry contributing to more frequent charging ergo faster battery degradation.

 

[Digitalguy]

The OG Air remained in production as well selling at $399 after the Air 2's release. Keeping the older iPad model as the entry level option has been standard practice for Apple. I can't remember with the iPad 1 but I know for sure they kept the iPad 2 as the $399 option along with the $499 iPad 3 and iPad 4.

I do agree with high end iPads becoming too expensive for most, though. We kept our iPad 3s for a long time only replacing them with 5th gen.

If I can get 1TB on the Air, I'd go with that. Alas, that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. I've always found the beefed up X chipsets too power hungry contributing to more frequent charging ergo faster battery degradation.

Good point, the ipad 2 was still on sale when I go the air... they kept it forever... so they just sort of changed the way they do the entry level, but there have been cheaper ipads for many years, though not as cheap as the current budget, at least for the regular size...

 

[AJB1971]

The OG Air remained in production as well selling at $399 after the Air 2's release. Keeping the older iPad model as the entry level option has been standard practice for Apple. I can't remember with the iPad 1 but I know for sure they kept the iPad 2 as the $399 option along with the $499 iPad 3 and iPad 4.

I do agree with high end iPads becoming too expensive for most, though. We kept our iPad 3s for a long time only replacing them with 5th gen.

If I can get 1TB on the Air, I'd go with that. Alas, that's unlikely to happen anytime soon. I've always found the beefed up X chipsets too power hungry contributing to more frequent charging ergo faster battery degradation.

Yes, it was usual for an older version to stick around as the new 'budget' model but the change from the Air 2 to the 5th generation iPad in March 2017 was a departure as it was a step back in some respects. It used the Air's chassis and yet that had been discontinued a year earlier. At the time we didn’t know what Apple’s plans were.

I do recall a version of the iPad Mini being the cheapest model in the range at one point.

The original iPad was discontinued when the iPad 2 launched.

 

[rui no onna]

Good point, the ipad 2 was still on sale when I go the air... they kept it forever... so they just sort of changed the way they do the entry level, but there have been cheaper ipads for many years, though not as cheap as the current budget, at least for the regular size...

Didn't Apple replace the iPad 2 with iPad 3 when they released the Air? Mind, that era was peak for small tablets as well, iirc.

The iPad mini was pretty much the cheap iPad back then. Anecdotal experience, I know a lot of people who would've preferred bigger iPads but bought iPad minis instead because it was the cheapest model (around $250-300, iirc). As I recall, the line up in 2013 was $300 iPad mini, $400 iPad 3, $400 iPad mini 2, $500 iPad Air.

Yes, it was usual for an older version to stick around as the new 'budget' model but the change from the Air 2 to the 5th generation iPad in March 2017 was a departure as it was a step back in some respects. It used the Air's chassis and yet that had been discontinued a year earlier. At the time we didn’t know what Apple’s plans were.

I expect Apple just tried very hard to get down to $330 pricing for volume and that it was another play for the education market.

The Air 2 was still at $400 MSRP when it got replaced by the cheaper basic iPad. Apple likely couldn't lower MSRP on that without reducing profit margins. The non-laminated display is likely one of their single biggest cost saving coming from Air 2. The mini 4 with laminated display continued selling for $399 after the basic iPad's release.

The OOW repair for the basic iPads is cheaper than repair for mini 4 and Air 2.

In any case, I'm glad we have a good-better-best line up so there's something for almost everyone. If I didn't want tons of storage, I'd happily settle for "better".

 

[Falhófnir]

Didn't Apple replace the iPad 2 with iPad 3 when they released the Air? Mind, that era was peak for small tablets as well, iirc.

The iPad mini was pretty much the cheap iPad back then. Anecdotal experience, I know a lot of people who would've preferred bigger iPads but bought iPad minis instead because it was the cheapest model (around $250-300, iirc). As I recall, the line up in 2013 was $300 iPad mini, $400 iPad 3, $400 iPad mini 2, $500 iPad Air.



I expect Apple just tried very hard to get down to $330 pricing for volume and that it was another play for the education market.

The Air 2 was still at $400 MSRP when it got replaced by the cheaper basic iPad. Apple likely couldn't lower MSRP on that without reducing profit margins. The non-laminated display is likely one of their single biggest cost saving coming from Air 2. The mini 4 with laminated display continued selling for $399 after the basic iPad's release.

The OOW repair for the basic iPads is cheaper than repair for mini 4 and Air 2.

In any case, I'm glad we have a good-better-best line up so there's something for almost everyone. If I didn't want tons of storage, I'd happily settle for "better".

They switched the 2 for the 4 as the cheaper model a few months after the Air came out, I believe they also shrank the A5 used in the 2 from 45nm to 32nm at around the time the Air launched, though it made very little practical difference.

 

[AJB1971]

Didn't Apple replace the iPad 2 with iPad 3 when they released the Air? Mind, that era was peak for small tablets as well, iirc.

The iPad mini was pretty much the cheap iPad back then. Anecdotal experience, I know a lot of people who would've preferred bigger iPads but bought iPad minis instead because it was the cheapest model (around $250-300, iirc). As I recall, the line up in 2013 was $300 iPad mini, $400 iPad 3, $400 iPad mini 2, $500 iPad Air.



I expect Apple just tried very hard to get down to $330 pricing for volume and that it was another play for the education market.

The Air 2 was still at $400 MSRP when it got replaced by the cheaper basic iPad. Apple likely couldn't lower MSRP on that without reducing profit margins. The non-laminated display is likely one of their single biggest cost saving coming from Air 2. The mini 4 with laminated display continued selling for $399 after the basic iPad's release.

The OOW repair for the basic iPads is cheaper than repair for mini 4 and Air 2.

In any case, I'm glad we have a good-better-best line up so there's something for almost everyone. If I didn't want tons of storage, I'd happily settle for "better".

There’s a good timeline on Wikipedia although it’s difficult remembering what happened with pricing -

There was some suggestion that the cost of repairs was also a factor for the education market.

I bought a 6th Generation iPad for my mother prior to lockdown and it’s a great device. If I hadn’t have got a good discount on my Pro 11, I’d have felt guilty about spending that much more on it.

 

[muzzy996]

iPadOS 14 is going to be available on the Air 2 which is just crazy to think about, that 6 years after launch of the device users of a particular iPad will still get an update. As has been noted by someone earlier, surely the length of support for these devices factors into why there isn't consistent growth in sales (not suggesting its a major factor). I don't necessarily see it as a bad thing, but my view is from a consumer that values long term value. My next tablet will most likely be an iPad Pro simply because I can trust that the investment will hold value for me for years (I'm talking support, not resale).

 

[spiderman0616]

You make a good point. However, I am finding my Samsung Galaxy Tab A (159 Euros on sale) is doing well without an external keyboard or pencil. Depends what your computing needs are of course. Sad to read that those who recently spent almost $400 for the Magic Keyboard are having problems having the trackpad work with their recently purchased $ 1200 iPad Pro.

Not sure where you're getting these prices from. The most expensive Magic Keyboard is $350 and the 12.9" iPad Pro starts at $999.

Also, I'm not sure why some of you are acting like the iPad Pro is some kind of failure because it doesn't sell in the volume that the iPad/iPad Air models sell. That was a given before the first gen Pro even came out. The Macbook Air also outsells the Macbook Pro. That doesn't make the Macbook Pro a failure or an unpopular device.

How quickly we all forget the original iPad sales trajectory. The iPad is going to have a tough compare for the rest of its time in the Apple product line because it was one of the fastest selling new devices out of the gate that Apple has ever made. It's a mature, steady, stable business for Apple now. Sales were starting to tank a few years ago, that's true. But the iPad Pro, then a little later the major OS updates, were what brought sales back up to a respectable level again. The iPad line in general is never going to get back up to the annual sales level of those first couple of years again, because it's a 10 year old product at this point. (It's still WAY outselling the Mac, by the way.)

Now that just about every current iPad model in the lineup for the most part has feature parity in software, the decision basically comes down to what hardware features you're willing to pay for. The Pros have nicer audio, screens, processors, design, and are compatible with the 2nd gen Pencil. I'm definitely willing to pay a little more for those features. Other users aren't. Apple doesn't really care as long as people keep buying iPads, which they are/will.

EDIT: PS: Yes, I do realize that Apple often highlights that the base model sells the most. This is not a surprise to me at all--it's priced to serve that purpose. But they have also highlighted before that new Pro models also move the needle. The last 2 gens of Pro especially seem to have been hot sellers.

 

[Expos of 1969]

Not sure where you're getting these prices from. The most expensive Magic Keyboard is $350 and the 12.9" iPad Pro starts at $999.

Also, I'm not sure why some of you are acting like the iPad Pro is some kind of failure because it doesn't sell in the volume that the iPad/iPad Air models sell. That was a given before the first gen Pro even came out. The Macbook Air also outsells the Macbook Pro. That doesn't make the Macbook Pro a failure or an unpopular device.

How quickly we all forget the original iPad sales trajectory. The iPad is going to have a tough compare for the rest of its time in the Apple product line because it was one of the fastest selling new devices out of the gate that Apple has ever made. It's a mature, steady, stable business for Apple now. Sales were starting to tank a few years ago, that's true. But the iPad Pro, then a little later the major OS updates, were what brought sales back up to a respectable level again. The iPad line in general is never going to get back up to the annual sales level of those first couple of years again, because it's a 10 year old product at this point. (It's still WAY outselling the Mac, by the way.)

Now that just about every current iPad model in the lineup for the most part has feature parity in software, the decision basically comes down to what hardware features you're willing to pay for. The Pros have nicer audio, screens, processors, design, and are compatible with the 2nd gen Pencil. I'm definitely willing to pay a little more for those features. Other users aren't. Apple doesn't really care as long as people keep buying iPads, which they are/will.

EDIT: PS: Yes, I do realize that Apple often highlights that the base model sells the most. This is not a surprise to me at all--it's priced to serve that purpose. But they have also highlighted before that new Pro models also move the needle. The last 2 gens of Pro especially seem to have been hot sellers.

Most folks pay tax on top of the prices you quote.

 

[Jedimindtrick]

The entry level Apple iPad is without a doubt the best bang for your buck in basic computing. What an iPad can offer for $329 (often times $279 on sale) is an absolutesteal. If I only had $600 to spend on hardware, I’d go iPad + Logitech’s new keyboard trackpad + Apple Pencil. Very tough to find anything close to that package for $600.

You make a good point. However, I am finding my Samsung Galaxy Tab A (159 Euros on sale) is doing well without an external keyboard or pencil. Depends what your computing needs are of course. Sad to read that those who recently spent almost $400 for the Magic Keyboard are having problems having the trackpad work with their recently purchased $ 1200 iPad Pro.

What problems are they having? I’ve had my since it launched and I’ve absolutely loved it. Zero issues. To me, the iPad Pro was severely held back without a something like the magic keyboard.

 

[Expos of 1969]

The entry level Apple iPad is without a doubt the best bang for your buck in basic computing. What an iPad can offer for $329 (often times $279 on sale) is an absolutesteal. If I only had $600 to spend on hardware, I’d go iPad + Logitech’s new keyboard trackpad + Apple Pencil. Very tough to find anything close to that package for $600.

What problems are they having? I’ve had my since it launched and I’ve absolutely loved it. Zero issues. To me, the iPad Pro was severely held back without a something like the magic keyboard.

Folks on here reporting non working trackpads.

 

[AJB1971]

Also, I'm not sure why some of you are acting like the iPad Pro is some kind of failure because it doesn't sell in the volume that the iPad/iPad Air models sell. That was a given before the first gen Pro even came out. The Macbook Air also outsells the Macbook Pro. That doesn't make the Macbook Pro a failure or an unpopular device.

What are you specifically referring to because I haven't got the impression that anybody has acted like the iPad Pro is a failure?

 

[spiderman0616]

Folks on here reporting non working trackpads.

This is not a widespread or widely reported issue, and the MacRumors forums are definitely NOT a good place to get a good feel for whether an Apple accessory is good or not.

 

[Digitalguy]

The entry level Apple iPad is without a doubt the best bang for your buck in basic computing. What an iPad can offer for $329 (often times $279 on sale) is an absolutesteal. If I only had $600 to spend on hardware, I’d go iPad + Logitech’s new keyboard trackpad + Apple Pencil. Very tough to find anything close to that package for $600.

What problems are they having? I’ve had my since it launched and I’ve absolutely loved it. Zero issues. To me, the iPad Pro was severely held back without a something like the magic keyboard.

I think it depends, for some people it can be. For others, especially those who do not need a stylus, something like the Lenovo Chromebook Duet at 299 keyboard included could be a better deal with a desktop browser and android apps for much less (it supports a stylus but Lenovo doesn't sell it yet). Most reviewers say how this is the best value you can get at that price if you need a keyboard... Anyway, we are on Macrumors here, so I guess many people here are not comfortable with non Apple devices....

 

[Jedimindtrick]

I think it depends, for some people it can be. For others, especially those who do not need a stylus, something like the Lenovo Chromebook Duet at 299 keyboard included could be a better deal with a desktop browser and android apps for much less (it supports a stylus but Lenovo doesn't sell it yet). Most reviewers say how this is the best value you can get at that price if you need a keyboard... Anyway, we are on Macrumors here, so I guess many people here are not comfortable with non Apple devices....

IMO Chrome OS feels like a budget operating system, made for (in most cases) budget hardware. I’ve never been a fan of Chrome OS, but to your point, the Chromebook Duet is a heck of a deal and you’re absolutely right, it needs to be considered if you’re in the iPad market.