Yes but what was the probability of it ending in the same month that the new iphone was set to come out. That's what I meant.
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Its Fate, Right?
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Yes but what was the probability of it ending in the same month that the new iphone was set to come out. That's what I meant.
lol, my contract ended in may of last year. I first held out for the Droid, got it in December and returned it, got the Eris a month later and returned it. Right now, I don't have a contract so if the iPhone comes out on Verizon this summer, I'll be getting it. If it's not coming on Verizon, then I'm dumping Verizon and heading over to the dark side. I just can't go without the iPhone for another year. Being in NJ helps since AT&T has good service here.
I've not seen this one before, but it was absolutely the perfect post for this thread.
Not really, no.
Actually, its a 1 in 24 shot since the contract is for 2 years but again, just joking around.
Uh.... you were too, right?
really!? because july is 1 of the 24 months in a year?!?
Even on a 2 year contract its still 1 in 12
Whatever
And now you know how religion spreads unchecked.
really!? because july is 1 of the 24 months in a year?!?
Even on a 2 year contract its still 1 in 12
No, its not. Each month is a different chance. Jan 2009 and Jan 2010 are two different months. The iphone is coming out, hopefully, in July 2010. Out of the 24 different months in the two years of my contract, July 2010 is ONE MONTH. Thats a one in 24 chance.
Whatever
I'll continue!
Well, there was a new iPhone last June, and the July before that and even the September before that if I'm not mistaken... So those should count... technically
Also, we don't know that July 2010 will bring a new iPhone. This hasn't been announced, only presumed. So that means there are unknown odds on whether you will finish your contract the same month as a released iPhone. I'm sure we could reasonably calculate the doubt in the release of the iPhone this July. Even just doing the MOST rough assumption I would say there is a 1/3 chance that it's even going to be this July (I know there are more complex ways to calculate doubt, but I'm not THAT bored... Yet...).
Plus, we are not accounting for the fact that you signed a binding contract 2 years ago when the iPhone 3G came out knowing it was a 2 year contract thus making it 100% chance it would be expiring this July. This leaves the only odds as the 1/3.
ah, if only the origional statement that you challenged of it being 1 in 12 had said july 2010.
dukebound85 just said july and you didnt correct him
ah, if only the origional statement that you challenged of it being 1 in 12 had said july 2010.
dukebound85 just said july and you didnt correct him
Some people just need something to argue about, obviously doesn't matter what as long as they can claim the other person was wrong somehow.
I really shouldn't get sucked into it, but even if you assume that, from the outset it was somehow random what month you locked in your contract, you still knew the amount was for two years. As the chance for it to have occurred for any month in 2009 was ZERO, it's still a 1 in 12 chance.
In any case, congratulations on your luck—if it even comes out in July as it did in 2009 anyway—even though none of it had to do with luck...in any way...whatsoever. God I hope your 1/24 argument was sarcasm.
God I hope your 1/24 argument was sarcasm.[/QUOTE]
Actually, the whole post was tongue in cheek. Here's the story and then maybe we can wrap up this thread: I never planned on going to AT&T and was holding out for a Verizon iPhone. Over the last few weeks, pretty much everybody I work with, bailed on Verizon and bought an iPhone (yes, I told them according to this site, new ones are probably coming out soon and if they waited a little longer they might get a better one....). Anyway, they are all happy with the AT&T service in our area and LOVE their phones and the apps. So.... I made the decision to not pay extra to break my Verizon contract, I would wait until it was up and then hopefully the new iPhones would come out around the same time. A few nights ago, I remember seeing that little graph on VZW.com that shows you when your contract is up. It said mine was this July. This web site says new iPhones are probably coming out this July. I thought that was a happy coincidence so I posted my little "fate" comment. I thought it might amuse some people.... little did I know it would spark such a fun (annoying?) back and forth over such a boring subject: odds. (Unless you're a gambler, who really cares about them?) So..... thanks for playing along. Let's move on to more important things.... like is now the time to buy a 17 inch iMac or should I wait until they upgrade them with USB 3s? I haven't seen anything on this site about that.....
Actually, the whole post was tongue in cheek. Here's the story and then maybe we can wrap up this thread: I never planned on going to AT&T and was holding out for a Verizon iPhone. Over the last few weeks, pretty much everybody I work with, bailed on Verizon and bought an iPhone (yes, I told them according to this site, new ones are probably coming out soon and if they waited a little longer they might get a better one....). Anyway, they are all happy with the AT&T service in our area and LOVE their phones and the apps. So.... I made the decision to not pay extra to break my Verizon contract, I would wait until it was up and then hopefully the new iPhones would come out around the same time. A few nights ago, I remember seeing that little graph on VZW.com that shows you when your contract is up. It said mine was this July. This web site says new iPhones are probably coming out this July. I thought that was a happy coincidence so I posted my little "fate" comment. I thought it might amuse some people.... little did I know it would spark such a fun (annoying?) back and forth over such a boring subject: odds. (Unless you're a gambler, who really cares about them?) So..... thanks for playing along. Let's move on to more important things.... like is now the time to buy a 17 inch iMac or should I wait until they upgrade them with USB 3s? I haven't seen anything on this site about that.....
Not really, no.
Actually, its a 1 in 24 shot since the contract is for 2 years but again, just joking around.
Uh.... you were too, right?
How so?
sign up for phone on month of release.
24 month contract
iPhone release schedule: 12 monthly
Therefore every second release your contract expires in time for you to sign up again with new phone.
This is the only statement that is presently correct. Can't be odds applied if we don't even know for sure what month it will be released in and IF it will even be released...
based on threads like this I think we need to bring back the bunny's!
Absolutely wonderful! On a scale from 1 to 10, this thread just bumped up to a 1.8!
The probability doesn't lie on what month your contract ends, it lies on what month the new iphone is released. Your contract was set to end in July the moment you started it. The only variable in the equation is when apple decides to release the iphone.
You were both wrong.
You were both wrong.
My battery life is good for the typical day, but I did end up getting one of these for those days when I was out working late. Hook it up for 10 min and I'm good to go for a few more hours.
And they can decide to release the phone in any month they want. There are 24 months in my contract. The odds of them picking the exact month is 1 in 24.
You are wrong.
And ugly.
No. Here you implied that the variable which would rely on probability was the month your contract ended, when the actual variable is the month the new phone is released. You were wrong. Nice try though.
and on that note...your discounting all the months that take place AFTER July...and what if the phone comes out in June?
the 3GS came out in June...the next one could too...
Nice try, yourself, but there are two variables here and it doesn't matter what I "implied" or who I didn't correct the first time around, my odds still are correct. Just cause some 12 year old just posted that the new iphone date is the variable, doesn't make it true.
That is true, but you are forgetting that I didn't want a new iPhone last summer, so that doesn't count.