Wow! We've had a busy night haven't we? Personally, I ordered the family a pizza and went to see a friend's band play. She was pretty good! Known her for twenty years and never got around to seeing her sing. Anyway.... I'll let the silly things go (like you're no Darwin... really?, thought this was just as important) and ask two honest questions:
You're no Darwin. I said that because you were equating yourself with him. You're no Darwin, I'm no Einstein. You're no Stalin, I'm no Hitler.
That's great by the way, I'm glad you had fun. Just because we wrote replies doesn't mean none of us did anything fun either, just so you know. We bought a new car last night. Plus I have an iPhone. I could be anywhere.
Why do some many (you know, like four) of you say that since the ending date was set it stone from the moment I entered into my contract, that the month it ends is not a variable? I've been with Verizon for over a decade. That's before the iphone was even first thought up, right? So, if you are asking what the odds are of a new phone falling on that month, how can you say the month isn't a variable?
The month is variable, right up until you sign that contract. I think I see where you're going with this. We're looking at it two different ways. You're looking at it that you're lucky from the outset—BEFORE you signed a contract—that the month you happened to pick to sign a new contract was the same month a new iPhone would fall in. I don't think that 1 in 24 fits that because it has to fall at the end of your contract not anywhere in the middle but whatever, I don't really car about that. That said, most of us—yes 4, because there's only about 5 of us arguing—are considering this from the point AFTER you signed the contract. At that point the ending month is set and the only variable is whether or not an iPhone is released. Can you agree with that?
Yes, that was the assumption from the start... we are talking about this July's iphone and assuming that it will come out this July which we don't know is 100% true yet but still.... Why do you have to ignore that the contract is finite? There are odds in the lottery but only a finite number of combos of numbers. Odds in horse racing with a finite number of horses. All odds are based on things that are finite, if they weren't, THERE COULDN'T BE ODDS PLACED ON THEM!!!!
You guys just keep stating finite this and variable that without any logic behind it. Odds are simple: if there are 25 cases to choose from, one of which has a million dollars in it, you have a 1in 24 chance of making a million bucks. It doesn't matter that the case you pick is set in stone the moment you pick it or that there are a finite number of cases.
There's definitely logic behind it, but as I noted above, we're thinking about the problem differently. Since I'm looking at this from the point of a set contract length there are really no odds other than the 50/50 of whether or not an iPhone is released on the month your contract ends or any other month.
Also, odds can be placed on things that aren't finite as long as it has a limit (as in a calculus limit).
No one said that it matters what's set in stone, just that you don't know what the thing is that is set in stone. That's how something can have odds, otherwise there's no reason to have them. In this case you know what the contract length is, so there's no odds relating to that. There's only odds relating to when the phone is released. This is why it could NEVER be 1 in 24 in my opinion.
From your point before a contract was set the contract end date is variable but the length isn't so you get 1 in 24. I hope now, that we're done with this.
Usually if two people really, really believe they're correct, the difference is in point of view and not necessarily logic.
