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iTunes downloads top 50 million
- Thread starter whooleytoo
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wordmunger said:
The 100M goal is for April 28, the first year of iTMS.
That goal *does* include Pepsi numbers, and the current tally does *not*. Looks like we'll need around 33% redemption from Pepsi to hit the 100M mark by the deadline ... which may or may not be plausible (it's the upper range of expectations, I believe).
The thing is, I'm not certain Steve set the 100 million mark is seriousness, or if that was set just to set the stage for the Pepsi giveaway. It'd be great for Steve to announce conclusive numbers from the Pepsi giveaway and at the same time announce the next big deal with Mc Donald's or whoever. As long as Apple keeps the ball rolling, they'll stay on top.
Any numbers on how many songs they have? How does the iTMS selection compare with other stores? I know iTMS has gaps, but do all the stores have the same gaps?
Any numbers on how many songs they have? How does the iTMS selection compare with other stores? I know iTMS has gaps, but do all the stores have the same gaps?
What's encouraging is that the pace is actually picking up.
4/28 - 9/03 (130 days): 10 mil -- 0.5 mil a week
9/03 - 12/12 (100 days): 15 mil -- 1.0 mil a week
12/12 - 3/15 (95 days): 25 mil -- 1.8 mil a week
Now Apple is saying 2.5 mil a week. We could be hitting 3 mil a week soon.
I wonder what's accounting for the increasing numbers. More windows users? More iPods being sold? Third-party crossovers (HP, AOL, Pepsi)? Better advertising?
4/28 - 9/03 (130 days): 10 mil -- 0.5 mil a week
9/03 - 12/12 (100 days): 15 mil -- 1.0 mil a week
12/12 - 3/15 (95 days): 25 mil -- 1.8 mil a week
Now Apple is saying 2.5 mil a week. We could be hitting 3 mil a week soon.
I wonder what's accounting for the increasing numbers. More windows users? More iPods being sold? Third-party crossovers (HP, AOL, Pepsi)? Better advertising?
dongmin said:
I think it's greater mind share, and a growing market. As more and more people are willing to try out downloading music legally, more and more people are recognizing that the iTMS is the way to go. People are seeing that Apple offers a quality product and is choosing them over the .wma opponents. The silhouette people need to be given their due, as they undoubtedly have had a big part in this. They are being parodied now they are so popular.
Snowy_River said:
I say.
iTMS has been online how long? Also an order of magnitude longer than Napster? Maybe not exactly, but not too far off either.
Apple is trying to achieve the impossible:
- Dominating the mp3-player market (at least the market for premium players) AND
- dominating the music download market AND
- pushing AAC as the standard for compressed audio.
If they were good, they could hit one of the three. Two out of three if they are really good. But all three is impossible, there is too much money to be made that other companies would not attack sooner or later.
Apple could either let other companies rebrand the store, licencense the AAC/Fairplay combo or open up to .wma. Doing nothing like this is foolish and will end just the way the closed Mac-Platform ended.
iTunes news leaves me cold...
Don't get me wrong. I love iTunes and my iPod, but I'm really not that interested in Apple's sequential milestones (10,000 songs, 1,000,000 songs, etc, etc). So what? They have a PR department that issues a press release everytime someone at Apple does even the marginal thing nowadays. I would love to hear something more substantial than sales drivel.
I guess it shows they haven't f@*ck$D the mp3 market up yet though...
Please, let's get some new hardware... No one wants G4-anything anymore, and a 21st century Walkman isn't my idea of revolutionary.
It seems like the pipeline has been dry for some time...
Don't get me wrong. I love iTunes and my iPod, but I'm really not that interested in Apple's sequential milestones (10,000 songs, 1,000,000 songs, etc, etc). So what? They have a PR department that issues a press release everytime someone at Apple does even the marginal thing nowadays. I would love to hear something more substantial than sales drivel.
I guess it shows they haven't f@*ck$D the mp3 market up yet though...
Please, let's get some new hardware... No one wants G4-anything anymore, and a 21st century Walkman isn't my idea of revolutionary.
It seems like the pipeline has been dry for some time...
100 mil goal
The 100 million goal INCLUDED Pepsi downloads, while the 50 million # does not. And since Pepsi bottle distribution has lagged behind by about a month, I'd expect that 100 million goal to be a month late as well. (I have no clue whether Pepsi downloads could EVER make up the difference--sounds unlikely to me.)
In any case the goal was far beyond Apple's previous goals--it's not something the "need" to have happen.
The 100 million goal INCLUDED Pepsi downloads, while the 50 million # does not. And since Pepsi bottle distribution has lagged behind by about a month, I'd expect that 100 million goal to be a month late as well. (I have no clue whether Pepsi downloads could EVER make up the difference--sounds unlikely to me.)
In any case the goal was far beyond Apple's previous goals--it's not something the "need" to have happen.
eSnow said:
You know what they say... Aim for the stars and the moon... I think Apple is playing this very smart. Here's why:
By putting songs at a $.99 price point, they have already aggessively outpriced anything the competition can come up with (this is a Dell tactic hard at work). Apple has effectively doomed the music download business right from the beginning.
Then the iPod... Well, everyone still wants one. Apple has their finger on the pulse of hip culture. And they play it very well. All they have to do is refresh the image with a new breakthru every once in awhile, and they continue to be the best.
AAC/Fairplay... A lot of debate here. Should there be one standard? Maybe. If the iPod was more compatible with WMA, would it help it's sales? Most definitely. But the issue isn't one of percieved hurdles, but of actual realized obstacles that hamper your user experience. If someone wants to switch to iTunes from another service, they'll have a hard time moving their music library. BUT, by the same token, the reverse effect is also true. Most people have never had the chance to even discover this because the industry is so nacent (ie. they just don't care).
My point is that what we'll find in the future is a very segmented music industry that sees very little migration between service choices. iTunes/iPod are just locking in their market early.
-John
eSnow said:
apple has businesses other than music sales to offset any losses. napster really doesn't. so if their music business doesn't make money on their own, they are pretty much dead. also, because this is such a rapidly developing market, apple has a huge advantage being the first. i don't know how napster's early numbers compare to apple's early numbers. but i would not bet on napster improving their sales linearly with the time they've been around.
one of the biggest reasons iTMS is as popular as it is because of the tight integration between iPod and iTMS. in iPod, apple had/has the best mp3 player in the market and they added iTMS later. so i think they have the base to achieve the first two objectives you listed. and third is pretty much moot right now. most consumers don't care what format music players use. if they can play the format, it's a non-issue. because iTMS is only accessible from iTunes, every user who purchases from iTMS is guaranteed to be able to play it on their computer. the only problematic consumers are the one with mp3 only portable players.
you are right, apple is basically saying "if you want our music on the go, get our portable player." but when that portable player is (and was) pretty much the best and the most hip one out there, who will complain?
as long as iPod remains the best portable music player out there, iTMS/codec success will follow...
BurntCalc said:
very good point. 99 cents per song basically forced the market in apple's favor: that music downloading service is not very profitable on its own right. (of course, it also happens to be about the amount of money most of us are willing to pay for a song...)
you really have to have complementary hardware sales...
if some service wants to knock iTMS/apple off, they will need to start by trying to knock iPod off...
Talked with our local Pepsi Bottler
Pepsi is predicting around 30-40% of all Pepsi caps being redeemed by April 30th.
This is according to a Super at our local Pepsi bottler.
So Apple really only needs to sell around 65 mil to make the 100 mark if Pepsi's prediction holds true.
Oh yeah if your market had another regional promo running it supersedes the iTunes cap promo.
Pepsi is predicting around 30-40% of all Pepsi caps being redeemed by April 30th.
This is according to a Super at our local Pepsi bottler.
So Apple really only needs to sell around 65 mil to make the 100 mark if Pepsi's prediction holds true.
Oh yeah if your market had another regional promo running it supersedes the iTunes cap promo.
go apple go! napster just isn't going make it. how can anyone make money on such low margins? well maybe walmart, 'cause they obviously know how to squeeze the copper out of every cent, or they wouldn't be as successful as they are. it's all about volume and for once in our m$ dominated world, apple is kickin ass!
AirUncleP said:
I dont think cutting the price is necessary to increase sales, more like increase production to satisfy the current demand. Particularly with the iPod mini which pre sold 100,000 prior to its release, that doesnt account for the rest of the shoppers who turned up to Apple stores wanting to buy it.
eSnow said:
What no one has said is that if apple does either of the first two items on this list they are almost garanteed the third. It won't be instant and there will always be copy-cats, but it will eventually happen. The point was made that Apple has other business outside of the music is excellent but even more is that they have a load of money, and very profitable products. Most of the things that the other companies sell aren't as profitable so the risk is greater to innovate. That is where the future leader will be defined, in the innovation, and becasue Apple is one of the only companies with the means to do so the future looks bright.
Off the subject HP was the world leader in PC sales in Q4, with increasing numbers, while the #2 (Dell) had decreasing numbers. HP is the best innovator in the PC bunch, and don't get mad but they probably innovate more than Apple. Apple is in a good position by choosing to partner with HP purely for their innovation. An example.. a group of HP employees designed a mp3 player that was so different and better it is called the DJammer and would probably be for the DJs or for a potential ipod pro audience. I'll fing a link to he article for the DJammer a post it.
GO Apple
Link:
http://www.hpl.hp.com/personal/Mat_Hans/research/djammer/index.htm
Photorun said:
Quote"Steve Jobs specifically stated, in explaining how Apple would hit the 100 million songs sold mark, "What are we going to do [to sell 100 million songs in a year]? We're going to give away a hundred million songs. You heard me right. We are so proud to be partnering with Pepsi on this... So, a hundred million songs by April 28, 2004 - this is our goal - we're going to Windows [with an iTunes version], partner with AOL, ...and we're going to giveaway 100 million songs with Pepsi... So, we think we've got a really good shot at selling 100 million legal downloads the first year." See it for yourself during Jobs' presentation from the Moscone Center in San Francisco during Apple's "iTunes for Windows Introduction" on October 16, 2003 here."
Clearly, Jobs intends to count the Pepsi redemptions. None of these redemptions is included in today's announcement of over 50 million songs sold. It is not April 28, 2004, yet. Fried is wrong to pretend that Apple has not hit its goal. No one can know until April 28, 2004 and all of the songs sold are counted.
End quote.
as much as i'm interested in seeing apple succeed, i enjoy even more hearing about other music stores fail.
david_r_p said:
I have to agree with you. I'm going to be very disappointed if the great products Steve mentioned were going to be released this year are all music devices. Does Apple know how many people are eagerly awaiting (with their credit cards in hand) the release of a G5 powerbook. At this point, when the powerbook is released, it better have an all new design and an innovative cooling process.
It is always nice to hear when Apple is doing well. I don't think Apple needs to make ITMS .wma compatible. They might want to make the iPod and mini .wma compatible. I am not an audio expert, but if .wma is so inferior to ACC, then let the people decide for themselves.
A couple of other ideas I think Apple should do to help push both iPods and ITMS:
1. Give away 5 free songs with each iPod purchased. Granted the ITMS exists to drive iPod sales, but with the growing volume ITMS could generate enough $$$ to be self sustaining. If Apple is making $0.05 off each sale, a number I think is conservative and possible, then they have made $2.5 million off the ITMS this first year so far. Not bad! And for something like this, most of the $$$ is associated with start up costs. It shouldn't take much to keep it going, updating software from time to time, on this sort of a budget. Plus you grow those numbers where you are actually selling 100 million a year (actual sales) and $5 mil should be enough to run the department if managed correctly.
2. I think they should re-brand ACC as MP4. If I am remembering correctly, when ACC was first announced it was also called MP4. So, if this is correct, then my suggestion works - if I'm wrong then ignore what I am about to say. The market, esp on the PC side, likes increasing numbers. It is also easy to sell or explain. A majority of the downloading market knows what mp3 is, you tell them you have mp4 and most will assume it is a better version of mp3. You could make this argument that ACC (mp4) is better in some ways to mp3. First is legal downloads and the ability to rip (or save down to) mp3. Second, mp3 is seen as a quasi open format - at least not one "owned" by M$. Apple should push on this, since they are now big in to open source, as "we don't 'own' mp4 (ACC) format. We just think it is the best in terms of quality and security for online legal downloads." I think this would get them far and be more identifyable with the masses.
A couple of other ideas I think Apple should do to help push both iPods and ITMS:
1. Give away 5 free songs with each iPod purchased. Granted the ITMS exists to drive iPod sales, but with the growing volume ITMS could generate enough $$$ to be self sustaining. If Apple is making $0.05 off each sale, a number I think is conservative and possible, then they have made $2.5 million off the ITMS this first year so far. Not bad! And for something like this, most of the $$$ is associated with start up costs. It shouldn't take much to keep it going, updating software from time to time, on this sort of a budget. Plus you grow those numbers where you are actually selling 100 million a year (actual sales) and $5 mil should be enough to run the department if managed correctly.
2. I think they should re-brand ACC as MP4. If I am remembering correctly, when ACC was first announced it was also called MP4. So, if this is correct, then my suggestion works - if I'm wrong then ignore what I am about to say. The market, esp on the PC side, likes increasing numbers. It is also easy to sell or explain. A majority of the downloading market knows what mp3 is, you tell them you have mp4 and most will assume it is a better version of mp3. You could make this argument that ACC (mp4) is better in some ways to mp3. First is legal downloads and the ability to rip (or save down to) mp3. Second, mp3 is seen as a quasi open format - at least not one "owned" by M$. Apple should push on this, since they are now big in to open source, as "we don't 'own' mp4 (ACC) format. We just think it is the best in terms of quality and security for online legal downloads." I think this would get them far and be more identifyable with the masses.
AndrewMT said:
I'm sure that Apple is working there damndest to get those babies out the door. Not like Apple doesn't have the capital to spend to get it going. I guess I'd rather have music news at least than NO news. Just look at Apple's stock, they are going places right now, and without the music to drive the company through the G4/G5 transition, they might not make it.
macnews said:
I think that AAC (
) is the audio layer of the MPEG-4 codec in the same manner that mp3's represent the audio layer (Layer 3) of MPEG-1. I don't know if you can legally call it mp4 or not. If you notice the file type is mp4 for regular AAC files and m4a for the Apple Fairplay DRM'ed files.Spin
I'm personally indifferent to the iTunes music store and whether or not Apple is selling enough songs, but I thought it was kind of funny to see how different news outlets are spinning this. As you might expect, the optimists are posting here, and then the BBC is spinning this as some kind of business calamity:
BBC's story
I'm personally indifferent to the iTunes music store and whether or not Apple is selling enough songs, but I thought it was kind of funny to see how different news outlets are spinning this. As you might expect, the optimists are posting here, and then the BBC is spinning this as some kind of business calamity:
BBC's story