John Gruber's thoughts on Apple Watch

[Julien]

... The ones at $350 are similar or superior to the Watch. There is no way that Apple is mass producing $2000 watches, $3000 watches, $4000 watches or $5000 watches.

If they are, then they are stupid and learnt nothing from their other bombs like the TAM

NEWS FLASH: the Sport aWatch starts at $350 for the same fictionality as the $5000 Edition. The Sport will probably be 75% or more of all aWatch sales. The people buying the Edition aren't buying a smart watch, they are buying high FASHON jewelry that happens to be a smart watch.

 

[richdruitt]

NEWS FLASH: the aWatch starts at $350 for the same fictionality as the $5000 Edition. The people buying the Edition aren't buying a smart watch, they are buying high FASHON jewelry that happens to be a smart watch.

Oh well, then, that makes soo much more sense. :roll eyes:

I'd hate to break it to you, but it's not high fashion either. It's as high fashion as a Sony SmartWatch. Just because you paint something gold or dip it in gold or call it gold, doesn't make it high fashion.

 

[Carlanga]

If it's a show piece there would be one or two versions, not 6. I think it will be priced to sell in moderate quantities. Apple is generally about affordable luxury. $650-1000 for the Watch is consistent with Michael Kors, Movado, and Tissot stainless steel watches. The only significant difference with the Edition is the use of gold. The design is essentially the same. While it's possible it will be $5000, I think $2000 may be more likely.

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He says he's being serious. However, note that the Edition is being sold with leather and plastic bands. It isn't being sold with links. The Rolexes he's comparing them to when measuring the scrap value of the gold have a LOT more gold as they have metal bands.

On the other hand, Burberry sells rose gold plated watches for $2,995. Since the Apple Watch Edition is solid 18kt gold, $4995 is in the ballpark. http://us.burberry.com/the-britain-bby1807-34mm-diamond-inner-track-p38858871

yeap, apart from that it's about brand pricing when you price things in the category he is comparing it too. Of course the apple watch is not considered to be in the same high class watch category.

You do know that John Gruber is a highly respected journalist and is believed to have lot's of inside contacts at Apple. He is usually spot on with his predictions. Also he is not one to give into wild unsubstantiated speculation and certainly not drunken nonsense guesses. You can all but bet your rent check that the info is accurate as of today.

His 'predictions' have been always well reserved, so it's easy to get it 'right' most of the time. He is making predictions from another market and his basing for the pricing here is flawed. Not even apple knows how to price them yet and after the just ok reviews from many it shouldn't be in the same category as the things he is comparing it to anyway. BTW, you don't understand emoticons after a sentence and I don't have to bet my rent check on him, because I don't rent His long winded post clearly is a thinking post w. no inside knowledge whatsoever at this point. You can bet your rent on what you want though.

 

[Julien]

Oh well, then, that makes soo much more sense. :roll eyes:

I'd hate to break it to you, but it's not high fashion either. It's as high fashion as a Sony SmartWatch. Just because you paint something gold or dip it in gold or call it gold, doesn't make it high fashion.

Hodinkee is the most respected fashion/jewelry watch blog. Read their review of the aWatch.

 

[MattInOz]

1) "...Keeps your favorite photos on your wrist.... It was even said in the presentation that photos can be stored on the aWatch. You can view photos while you iPhones is left at home.

2) Music can take up a lot of space. I have a 32GB iPhone and after Apps/Data I can only put about 400 ALAC songs on it.

Image

Yes but there is no head phone port on the watch.
So you need bluetooth headphones or speaker so why not have a Bluetooth wearable like the tiny buttonless iPod shuffle with it's own music capacity and controlled via Watch or Phone. They could sell this Airplay Bluetooth module to any one who makes headphones speakers.

 

[richdruitt]

Hodinkee is the most respected fashion/jewelry watch blog. Read their review of the aWatch.

I flicked through. It still doesn't change the fact that this is primarily a piece of consumer electronics. It also doesn't change the fact that unlike its competitors, the specs aren't sounding that great.

We have to compare like with like. It can't be compared to anything in the Rolex camp, as it's not a fine mechanical Swiss watch.
We have to compare it to the more realistic prices of its competitors in the electronic watch market.

 

[Julien]

I flicked through. It still doesn't change the fact that this is primarily a piece of consumer electronics. It also doesn't change the fact that unlike its competitors, the specs aren't sounding that great.

We have to compare like with like. It can't be compared to anything in the Rolex camp, as it's not a fine mechanical Swiss watch.
We have to compare it to the more realistic prices of its competitors in the electronic watch market.

You win. I just talked to Tim and he has decided to withdraw the Watch and Edition models from production.

 

[richdruitt]

You win. I just talked to Tim and he has decided to withdraw the Watch and Edition models from production.

it's not about winning. It's about the bleeding obvious. It's only a fashion piece as a watch. But even that has its limits. You can't price an watch that high. The market wouldn't take it for starters. It would also need to be an earth shatteringly good piece of machinery. From everything I've read of it at the moment, it's lacklustre.

If there are idiots out there who would buy a gold watch from Apple for that obscene amount of money, considering that it has no greater function more than the cheaper alternative, then good luck to them. A fool and their money are soon parted.

 

[Cashmonee]

Hodinkee is the most respected fashion/jewelry watch blog. Read their review of the aWatch.

Except in the review, he continually used phrasing such as "for a $350 watch" and "in this price range." What are his opinions as the price climbs closer $500 at the low end (likely for a 42mm Sport with an upgraded band), and up to Gruber's prediction of $5000 for the high end?

Maybe Apple can pull it off. I have a real hard time seeing it. If I am throwing down over $1000 on a watch, it certainly wouldn't be for a smart watch.

 

[KPOM]

it's not about winning. It's about the bleeding obvious. It's only a fashion piece as a watch. But even that has its limits. You can't price an watch that high. The market wouldn't take it for starters. It would also need to be an earth shatteringly good piece of machinery. From everything I've read of it at the moment, it's lacklustre.

If there are idiots out there who would buy a gold watch from Apple for that obscene amount of money, considering that it has no greater function more than the cheaper alternative, then good luck to them. A fool and their money are soon parted.

There's nothing a Rolex can do that an $8 plastic watch can't do. It's all about style. The Edition is a piece of jewelery that happens to have a smart watch inside of it. The question is whether it is a $2000 piece of jewelery, or $5000. It's competition isn't the Gear 2 or the Moto 360 (the Sport is competing with that). The competition for the standard Watch is Movado, Tissot, and Michael Kors, which sell in the $600-1200 range. The competition for the Edition is as yet unknown. Maybe it's the Burberry watches I linked to that are in the $2,000-$4,000 range. I don't think it is competing with Rolex or even Breitling. There are no diamonds or other adornments, and the basic design is the same as the cheaper Apple Watch Sport.

Apple has paid a HUGE attention to detail such as how the bands operate, the quality of the materials used, and the design. But they don't have the same cachet as a Rolex or a Breitling. Everyone and their uncle has or can afford an iPhone, iPad, or iPod. Mac is more niche, but still not a "luxury" product. Heck, perhaps even Apple doesn't know yet how much it will charge for the Edition.

Remember, the volume will be in the $350-$500 watches in the Sport range. If 75% of the watches sold are Sport, 24% are the "standard" watch, and 1% are the Edition, it can still be a success beyond Apple's wildest imaginations. But since there are 6 Edition designs and not 1 or 2, I think that odds are good that it will be in the $2-3K range.

 

[kerosene]

I'm gonna say it, this whole Apple venture into the luxury market with their gold bling sucks, as it's not about making the best product but about cashing in on their brand appeal.

Deep departure from their core values.

 

[dumastudetto]

His 'predictions' have been always well reserved, so it's easy to get it 'right' most of the time. He is making predictions from another market and his basing for the pricing here is flawed. Not even apple knows how to price them yet and after the just ok reviews from many it shouldn't be in the same category as the things he is comparing it to anyway. BTW, you don't understand emoticons after a sentence and I don't have to bet my rent check on him, because I don't rent His long winded post clearly is a thinking post w. no inside knowledge whatsoever at this point. You can bet your rent on what you want though.

I think there's a chance someone high up at Apple has decided they better start setting some realistic pricing expectations for these more expensive models because all the conversations since the event have been way below what Apple has in mind. The pricing probably isn't set in stone yet and that's why Apple didn't want to announce anything concrete at the media event beyond the starting price. But they probably do want people to be having conversations closer to numbers they have in mind to avoid precisely the situation Gruber writes about in his article (the **** storm).

So maybe somebody fed Gruber some price ranges and then he runs with a long-winded post about why Apple might set pricing within this range. Both Gruber and Apple know hundreds of articles will then be hastily written soon after Gruber hits the publish button, and that's exactly what's happened. Expectations are now set at more realistic levels.

Gruber gets to look like a genius when official pricing is announced, the shock of the final pricing tiers is not so surprising anymore because expectations have now firmly been set, and that's good for both parties.

I'm not saying this is definitely the case in this situation. But what I have outlined here is definitely a strategy Apple has adopted in the past.

 

[rkuo]

it's not about winning. It's about the bleeding obvious. It's only a fashion piece as a watch. But even that has its limits. You can't price an watch that high. The market wouldn't take it for starters. It would also need to be an earth shatteringly good piece of machinery. From everything I've read of it at the moment, it's lacklustre.

If there are idiots out there who would buy a gold watch from Apple for that obscene amount of money, considering that it has no greater function more than the cheaper alternative, then good luck to them. A fool and their money are soon parted.

The entire luxury and fashion market is predicated on charging outsized prices for functionally equivalent items. There's no inherent reason why Apple can't charge more money for their higher end versions ... only branding is standing in the way.

The fact that you keep focusing on function as the determinant of price shows that you have zero understanding of this market. It's real. It exists. Go into any jewelry or watch store and see how much people pay for items with literally zero function.

 

[KPOM]

I'm gonna say it, this whole Apple venture into the luxury market with their gold bling sucks, as it's not about making the best product but about cashing in on their brand appeal.

Deep departure from their core values.

I don't think it's bling. It isn't as if the only version being sold is the Edition. Wearables are different from other products. They are very personal. Watches in general are items of jewelry, and are priced in tiers. Apple isn't making a "smart watch." They are making three lines of watches that happen to have advanced features. First and foremost was designing something that would look good even if it didn't do anything. That's the same with any watch.

 

[leenak]

He's predicting $999 and $4999 for the stainless steel/sapphire and 18K gold/sapphire models, respectively? Interesting.

Hahaha, on further reading, he's describing this forum exactly:

Those are interesting price points for a watch that people will want to upgrade every few years. I mean, sure people pay thousands for watches but do they 'upgrade' those watches every few years? I'm glad that the prediction is that the sport will be the cheapest because I have no use for a regular watch but a sport watch, maybe.

 

[jido]

LOL....ROFLOL!!!!

Are you serious? A watch that has barely enough battery power to last a day is supposed to compete with Tourneau? Seriously? Are you deluded? You expect me to believe that Apple is expecting its crappy electronic watch with crappy battery power will compete with fine mechanical Swiss time pieces?

If you believe that you're seriously deluded. If anyone at Apple believe that, then they are seriously deluded as well.

It seems clear that Apple does believe that.

You can mock them, but at the end of the day, it is only when the Watch goes on sale that we will find out if Apple was right or not.

 

[Julien]

Apple has an internal sales forecast. The Edition is possibly expected to sell in something like a 1 - 10,000 ratio to the Sport.

Irony: The Edition is more likely to meet/exceed Apple's internal sales forecast than the Sport Watch especially if the aWatch is a *failure.

I'm not into fashion and I would not buy an Edition for the same reasons other are arguing. However I understand the fact that high end fashion is a multi-billion dollar business and firmly believe that a $5000 aWatch WILL sell very well in this segment. Others need to stop projecting their pragmatism and except that there are different types of people with different values.

*I believe that the aWatch will be a success.

 

[spriter]

All of these things work against the Apple Watch in the luxury high end watch range which in my opinion sits around the $1,500 - $50,000 range which apparently this $4999 Apple Watch is in.

I think it will be a really successful product at < $400 but I do not think this super high end $4999 one is going to sell well. It's just a ridiculous proposition even for the stupidly wealthy.

I'd agree with this on the most part.

Having worked for extremely wealthy and famous people who think nothing of spending vast amounts of money on something they use to limited potential, I think they may buy rev A out of curiosity but then fade as next gens are made.

With phones, desktops, and tablets, these people know Apple is the premium brand. The stylish status symbol for those devices. But for watches? I doubt Apple will ever be seen as the ultimate status watch. It doesn't have the heritage or price top-of-the-line price tag. And therefore I doubt the aWatch will replace their Patek Philippe or even Rolex.

Added to that is convenience - another love of the rich and famous! Charging daily means, sooner or later, they'll forget.It'll be an 18-karat gold blank screen on a wrist. This will piss them off no end and, ultimately, what will be the biggest factor in the second gen buy decision.

I'm sure they'll sell a ton of low-end watches to you and me (the techies). But, as a mid-range offering, which is what the 'premium' model will be unless it's going for 10-30k, I'm not convinced it'll disrupt the market.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

People laughed when Apple entered the MP3 player market. Look where it is.

People laughed when Apple entered the cell phone market. Look where it is.

People laughed when Apple entered the tablet market. Look where it is.

Now that people are laughing that Apple is entering the high-end wearable market, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

 

[MistrSynistr]

I love how no one has factored in the only way to get the battery to even last is by having the screen blank all day and set to turn on when you raise your wrist for yourself, meaning everyone wearing it as a "fashion accessory" will have a big rectangle black screen showing and nothing else.

Prepare to hear "is your watch working?" and other absurd comments when people see it on you.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

I love how no one has factored in the only way to get the battery to even last is by having the screen blank all day and set to turn on when you raise your wrist for yourself, meaning everyone wearing it as a "fashion accessory" will have a big rectangle black screen showing and nothing else.

Prepare to hear "is your watch working?" and other absurd comments when people see it on you.

Sure, like "How can you type on that thing if it has no (physical) keyboard?" back in 2007.

 

[richdruitt]

People laughed when Apple entered the MP3 player market. Look where it is.

People laughed when Apple entered the cell phone market. Look where it is.

People laughed when Apple entered the tablet market. Look where it is.

Now that people are laughing that Apple is entering the high-end wearable market, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

People aren't laughing at Apple entering the watch market. But I for one find the assertion that the watch is "solid" gold to be utterly ridiculous. It's obvious it's 18k plated gold. It won't be as expensive as everyone thinks it will be. Even when you read between the marketing rubbish on the actual website, it's plain it's plated gold. You can't make solid gold stronger by just wishing it that way.

Gruber has got his pricing wrong, which is fine. It's a prediction. People around here are treating it as fact, when frankly, if Apple don't know yet how much they want to charge for them, then neither does Gruber.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

People aren't laughing at Apple entering the watch market. But I for one find the assertion that the watch is "solid" gold to be utterly ridiculous. It's obvious it's 18k plated gold. It won't be as expensive as everyone thinks it will be. Even when you read between the marketing rubbish on the actual website, it's plain it's plated gold. You can't make solid gold stronger by just wishing it that way.

Gruber has got his pricing wrong, which is fine. It's a prediction. People around here are treating it as fact, when frankly, if Apple don't know yet how much they want to charge for them, then neither does Gruber.

The industry term 18-Karat Gold as it's imprinted on the Edition case means solid 18K gold. Otherwise, it'd say plated. It's not merely a prediction.

 

[richdruitt]

The industry term 18-Karat Gold as it's imprinted on the Edition case means solid 18K gold. Otherwise, it'd say plated. It's not merely a prediction.

You can't make gold stronger than what it is, without reducing the quantity of it. It's impossible. Also, I see no marking to say that it's 18k gold on the case. In fact, all the actual photos of it on the Apple site, have no markings on the case at all. The only marking I see, looks like a serial number

I'm sticking with my prediction that it's plated.

 

[JayLenochiniMac]

You can't make gold stronger than what it is, without reducing the quantity of it. It's impossible. Also, I see no marking to say that it's 18k gold on the case. In fact, all the actual photos of it on the Apple site, have no markings on the case at all. The only marking I see, looks like a serial number

I'm sticking with my prediction that it's plated.

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