John Gruber's thoughts on Apple Watch

[mtmac]

Department and discount stores handle the battery swaps on the watches they sell, without creating havoc. Apple also replaces batteries on laptops, iPhones iPads and iPods, so how is this so drastically different? This won't take more time than that, plus Apple would love a reason for you to come into the store more often. Its a small case with a front, back, and a rectangular component with a circular appendage that will easily be able to be swapped.

A gold iPhone is completely different. Gold is a long standard material for quality watches, not for phones. A phone is an electronic devise, a watch is a piece of jewelry. Apple understands this difference, and noted it in the release saying they needed all the customization as it is such a personal device. The phone can change sizes based on current technology and market needs, so limiting it to a certain size would prohibit advancement. Watches have a size constraint based on the human form. They will make other forms of the watches, just like they have in most of the other products they produce, in subsequent generations. But this form is valid and timeless, regardless if they produce thinner and round versions. People collect Rolexes, and I suspect the same will be true of aWatch.

People know that any apple product produced will not have the individual personality that watches can achieve built is small quantities. They are claiming that there are millions of different combinations, which is a bit of a stretch. 3 models, each with 2 sizes, each with 2 colors, and many band choices is a good start for hardware. Their "millions" likely also includes the many home screen options that the watches can be viewed on. I think apple was shooting for "lets give them enough customization, but everyone needs to know it's an apple." They will make sure that the function is so compelling, that people will find an option that is suitable enough for them.

Creating an upgradeable devise will also encourage first generation adoption like never before seen in a new apple product.

 

[derbladerunner]

Department and discount stores handle the battery swaps on the watches they sell, without creating havoc. Apple also replaces batteries on laptops, iPhones iPads and iPods, so how is this so drastically different? ...
Creating an upgradeable devise will also encourage first generation adoption like never before seen in a new apple product.

The current number of people replacing batteries on Apple products is very small in my opinion. After 3-4 years, the value of electronics dropped so much that it doesn't make sense financially, most people rather buy a new iDevice.

I'm not sure why Apple left upgrades unanswered at the aWatch keynote if they indeed have that capability in mind.

I would of course welcome it, especially on the high-end (Edition models).

Without upgrades, an aWatch is like a Rolex with an expiration date in 3-4 years. It becomes worthless (unless you scrap the gold) while mechanical watches keep their value.

 

[Rogifan]

John Gruber had Ben Thompson on his podcast and they spent a lot of time talking about Watch. Ben Thompson's opinion has evolved a bit. Initially he was quite critical even going so far as to say the device shouldn't have an SDK. Now he's sort of done a 180 and the Watch is Apple saying they're a computer company and Watch isn't an accessory like the iPod was.

He and Gruber also speculate on whether the Watch might be modular (for at least the more expensive watches). Of course Apple hasn't hinted at that but seeing how the S1 chip was designed and how Apple refers to it as a computer I don't think its out of the realm of possibility that Apple would offer a Watch service program where you could bring in your Watch and pay to have Apple swap out the chip (and maybe the battery too). Apple has made a point to never use the term smartwatch and they really are putting an emphasis on the watch aspect. I have a hard time believing Apple expects people to spend thousands of $$ on an Edition Watch every 2-3 years. I think being modular could be what blows away Android Wear devices. But at the same time I think it could be a tech nerd pipe dream that's too good to be true. I hope not. I think the most underrated and least talked about component with the Watch is the S1 chip. I'm fascinated to know more about it.

 

[KPOM]

I have a hard time believing Apple expects people to spend thousands of $$ on an Edition Watch every 2-3 years. I think being modular could be what blows away Android Wear devices. But at the same time I think it could be a tech nerd pipe dream that's too good to be true. I hope not. I think the most underrated and least talked about component with the Watch is the S1 chip. I'm fascinated to know more about it.

I doubt it will be upgradable (certainly not the $350 models, and not the Watch if it is $1000 or less). They may have some sort of trade-in program for the Edition, but I wouldn't expect great trade-in values. That said, Apple may not be expecting significant updates for the Watch. There has long been a 2-year upgrade cycle for phones. But if you look at the iPad or the Mac, the upgrade cycle is slower. Sure, they release updated models every year, but there's nothing "wrong" with a 2-4 year old Mac or iPad, and many people keep them for several years. I wouldn't expect any significant design changes for several years (they'll use the evolution in technology to improve battery life). So no one will be able to tell a 2015 Edition from a 2018 Edition from the outside. Someone spending $5,000-$10,000 on a Watch isn't interested in the latest and greatest technology (the Sport will appeal to the tech crowd). They are looking for a fashion accessory that happens to be functional.

 

[Piggie]

Please TRY and remember, as tech moves forward over it's product type's lifetime the improvement curve flattens out.

Why we don't bother upgrading many things in our lives as they are almost at the end of their development/progress cycle. Unless some new thing is invented, like the silicon chip, or the wheel! things just max out eventually.

In their early days, it's all systems go, new ideas, new concepts, new ways of solving the problem.

People are talking here as if the Apple watch has been out 10 to 15 years already and it's not time to make the large investment into a quality item that will stand the test of time.

In reality it could be laughable 12 months after it comes out.
Other companies are not going to stop the race, so I don't expect Apple to just give up on the 1st model.

The inside of the watch will be changing on the drawing board even before the 1st customer has bought the 1st one next spring.

Do we think Apple won't be able to improve the outward look/design either?
New screen, new sensors underneath.

It SHOULD be change change change for the 1st, what, 10 years+ of it's life.

If Apple charge enough, more than it's worth for the high end models, they they could indeed factor in the cost of taking your current one, scrapping it, and giving you the latest model.

Remember how WOW the iPhone v1 was when we 1st saw it, and think back to how laughable it would be now compared to an iPhone 6 in size and speed/what it can do.

That's how the new watch will look to us in a few years time.
OMG remember how bad that 1st model was.

 

[odds]

Please TRY and remember, as tech moves forward over it's product type's lifetime the improvement curve flattens out.

Why we don't bother upgrading many things in our lives as they are almost at the end of their development/progress cycle. Unless some new thing is invented, like the silicon chip, or the wheel! things just max out eventually.

In their early days, it's all systems go, new ideas, new concepts, new ways of solving the problem.

People are talking here as if the Apple watch has been out 10 to 15 years already and it's not time to make the large investment into a quality item that will stand the test of time.

In reality it could be laughable 12 months after it comes out.
Other companies are not going to stop the race, so I don't expect Apple to just give up on the 1st model.

The inside of the watch will be changing on the drawing board even before the 1st customer has bought the 1st one next spring.

Do we think Apple won't be able to improve the outward look/design either?
New screen, new sensors underneath.

It SHOULD be change change change for the 1st, what, 10 years+ of it's life.

If Apple charge enough, more than it's worth for the high end models, they they could indeed factor in the cost of taking your current one, scrapping it, and giving you the latest model.

Remember how WOW the iPhone v1 was when we 1st saw it, and think back to how laughable it would be now compared to an iPhone 6 in size and speed/what it can do.

That's how the new watch will look to us in a few years time.
OMG remember how bad that 1st model was.

Well said. I will be buying the v1 though because at $350-500 for the Sport or Watch, why not?

 

[mavis]

He's predicting $999 and $4999 for the stainless steel/sapphire and 18K gold/sapphire models, respectively?

I don't know - $500 for the stainless steel version I could do, but $999 for a watch that will likely be upgraded very soon (Apple Watch 2: half as thick, twice as long battery life, and three times as many sensors!) doesn't make much sense to me.

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

My thoughts:-

I applaud the customisation options that Apple have introduced. Despite what one thinks of the product, they have dedicated an awful lot of time, research and resources into making a wonderful catalogue of straps and interfaces. This is an area that I don't see any other 'tech' company emulating any time soon, and even if they did, it would likely be very tacky. I can just imagine Samsung and an S-Leather strap...

My real concern with Watch is that Apple didn't reimagine what a wearable device could look and feel like. Beneath all the technology, all the features and the outcome, it's still modelled on the appearance of a traditional timepiece.

I have to ask why this is. Traditional mechanical/digital watches are designed in such a way because that is (and has been) the most practical and convenient method of doing so. The Watch surely can't be considered primarily a timepiece; it houses a dynamic set of features that aren't reliant on a traditional watch design..

This is unfortunate, because the company likes to tell the story of how it enriches peoples lives - yet there is an element of self indulgence in the design of this product. Whereas in other Apple products you can opt to pay more additional functionality, in this case you will be paying premium prices for a different look.

This model is of course true with traditional watch companies, but the key differences with Watch are not only the affordability of the lowest-end model (believed to be $350...), but that to use many of the key functions, you still need to own an iPhone.

I don't know, maybe it's just me being an old fuddy-duddy. It just seems like anything but a product for everyone to benefit from.

 

[kerosene]

I think it does have it's place with the core functionality it offers, which is an expansion on the original purpose of having a timepiece on the wrist - quick and easy notification of information you want available at the turn of your wrist.

To me it does make sense to pair it with the iPhone which may be in a pocket or stored away elsewhere. When you receive a notification it's unobtrusive and allows an instant decision on whether or not to follow up, and how. Quick and easy yes/no type communication capabilities on the watch makes sense in this context. For anything more complex you'll have your iPhone within comfortable reach.

 

[spinedoc77]

I wonder how Apple will consolidate their yearly upgrade business with a consumer buying an expensive watch only a few times in their life. Maybe collectors with a lot of money, but I'd think the average consumer maybe saves up and buys nice rolex and then keeps it forever. But what do I know, people are buying $900 iPhone 6 pluses and will probably upgrade them next year to the ip6+s.

I don't think I'd pay that much for an apple watch though. I know my rolex will appreciate in value the longer I own it, but the apple watch will just depreciate the minute you buy it, and exponentially so when a new model comes out in a year. I just don't think smartwatches, like smartphones, were made to be collectors items or be good financial investments.

 

[Rogifan]

I wonder how Apple will consolidate their yearly upgrade business with a consumer buying an expensive watch only a few times in their life. Maybe collectors with a lot of money, but I'd think the average consumer maybe saves up and buys nice rolex and then keeps it forever. But what do I know, people are buying $900 iPhone 6 pluses and will probably upgrade them next year to the ip6+s.

I don't think I'd pay that much for an apple watch though. I know my rolex will appreciate in value the longer I own it, but the apple watch will just depreciate the minute you buy it, and exponentially so when a new model comes out in a year. I just don't think smartwatches, like smartphones, were made to be collectors items or be good financial investments.

What about the possibllity of the 'computer on a chip' being replaceable? The way everything is designed into one compact module makes me think Apple might have been thinking about that. I guess the question is how frequently will able produce a new chip. My guess is it won't be every year like they do with iOS devices.

 

[Piggie]

It is strange that people have come up with this concept which totally goes against the entire way Apple has worked for so many years.

It will be interesting to see if this total reversal of direction some are assuming will come into reality.

Do we really want the restrict development of the watch by tying Apple's hands every year?

Given the new nature of the technology, one may feel that, Mr Ive and Apple will want to clean sheet on the body of the watch each, or almost each year.

I would assume the strap locations would maintain their size and location as you will still need a strap unless Apple makes a radical change.

But to expect the body, screen and back of the watch to remain unaltered.

Also logistically. Having 10 million people sending their watches back to be cleaned, opened up, and upgraded. The cost would be amazing.

Selling your old watch, minus straps perhaps, and buying a new one, perhaps minus straps in the future, would be what Apple does.

It's hard to realistically see the upgrade path working.
You are going to have swarms of people bringing their old watches back.
Data on the watch being removed, do we assess the condition of each watch.

Would a battered watch be worth less than an immaculate watch as the apple store, and you get charged a different amount for the new one.

It's really an utter minefield to attempt to manage.

 

[Rogifan]

It is strange that people have come up with this concept which totally goes against the entire way Apple has worked for so many years.

It will be interesting to see if this total reversal of direction some are assuming will come into reality.

Do we really want the restrict development of the watch by tying Apple's hands every year?

Given the new nature of the technology, one may feel that, Mr Ive and Apple will want to clean sheet on the body of the watch each, or almost each year.

I would assume the strap locations would maintain their size and location as you will still need a strap unless Apple makes a radical change.

But to expect the body, screen and back of the watch to remain unaltered.

Also logistically. Having 10 million people sending their watches back to be cleaned, opened up, and upgraded. The cost would be amazing.

Selling your old watch, minus straps perhaps, and buying a new one, perhaps minus straps in the future, would be what Apple does.

It's hard to realistically see the upgrade path working.
You are going to have swarms of people bringing their old watches back.
Data on the watch being removed, do we assess the condition of each watch.

Would a battered watch be worth less than an immaculate watch as the apple store, and you get charged a different amount for the new one.

It's really an utter minefield to attempt to manage.

Man I'd hate to work on a team with you because your thoughts are always negative, can't do, won't work, etc.

Apple has been working on this project for three years. I'm pretty sure in that time they've figured out a go to market strategy.

 

[Piggie]

Man I'd hate to work on a team with you because your thoughts are always negative, can't do, won't work, etc.

Apple has been working on this project for three years. I'm pretty sure in that time they've figured out a go to market strategy.

If being realistic is classes as negative then so be it.

If we go the upgrade route for a moment.
I presume we are not contemplating that Apple Stores will be flooded with people sitting there waiting whilst they take millions of Watches apart to upgrade them.

If it were done, it would have to be a swap out for speed.
Bring yours in, the model get's checked, you pay the upgrade fee, and take the new one.

So then are we going to check for how the previous unit was looked after?
Is any condition of watch worth the same? dented and cracked screen vs immaculate one.

Then we are into arguments with customers about what level of wear the old one has, and what amount off the new one, they can get based on the condition of the old one then are bringing back.

And there will be millions of customers.

Can you even begin to imagine the issues this would cause?

Honestly I'm only being realistic as to what would happen if this was done in reality with millions of devices.

 

[Julien]

If being realistic is classes as negative then so be it.

If we go the upgrade route for a moment.
I presume we are not contemplating that Apple Stores will be flooded with people sitting there waiting whilst they take millions of Watches apart to upgrade them.....

Have you never been to a genus bar? You schedule an appointment, show up at your time and you have your service work done. Apple has been doing this for years and has it down to an absolute science. If Apple does the S/batt swap on the Watch & Edition's there will be no "flooded...with millions sitting" in Apple stores (overdose of pessimistic [not realistic] exaggeration).

 

[Rogifan]

Have you never been to a genus bar? You schedule an appointment, show up at your time and you have your service work done. Apple has been doing this for years and has it down to an absolute science. If Apple does the S/batt swap on the Watch & Edition's there will be no "flooded...with millions sitting" in Apple stores (overdose of pessimistic [not realistic] exaggeration).

Exactly. Exaggeration is an understatement. This won't be any different than people coming in with Mac or iOS devices. Apple stores will have to be redesigned to support Watch but again, Apple's been working on this for three years so they've has ample time to figure out their go to market strategy.

 

[Piggie]

Ok, I hear what you say.

I presume you are only talking about a gold possible very expensive model watch and not the aluminium and steel models?

If Apple do not allow such a trade up on the more expensive phones or iPads, but offer you the chance to buy a new model, and then you can sell your old one on if you wish to someone else.
Then I don't see why they would feel the need to offer such a service to a cheaper device watch.

So we are only thinking this service would apply to a higher end gold one of say $1500 ish?

 

[Cashmonee]

I highly doubt there will be some sort of modular replacement system. If Apple does anything, I would imagine it would be a simple trade in program. It's already been mentioned that the body would have to stay the same, but what hasn't even been thought of is what about the parts that aren't replaced? You couldn't change the way they interface with the rest of the unit. It seems you would greatly limit your flexibility in designing each successive iteration.

Of course, you never know, but it does seem pretty far fetched. Then again, so does anyone actually paying thousands of dollars for a watch made by a tech company, but clearly there are people here willing to do that, so what do I know?

 

[Piggie]

I highly doubt there will be some sort of modular replacement system. If Apple does anything, I would imagine it would be a simple trade in program. It's already been mentioned that the body would have to stay the same, but what hasn't even been thought of is what about the parts that aren't replaced? You couldn't change the way they interface with the rest of the unit. It seems you would greatly limit your flexibility in designing each successive iteration.

Of course, you never know, but it does seem pretty far fetched. Then again, so does anyone actually paying thousands of dollars for a watch made by a tech company, but clearly there are people here willing to do that, so what do I know?

Indeed.
It is a vastly more realistic scenario in multiple ways to do a trade in/swap system for the high end versions.

Apple don't do it for $400, $600, $800 iPhones and iPads.
They want to sell you a new one so they make more money, so I don't know where the notion has come from that they will suddenly change their long running sales strategy on a watch half the price of their other two big selling items.

As has been mentioned, it may just be for the gold case versions, a swap out, so that's blown the sentimental keepsake concept right out the window.
Then again, perhaps the $1500 for you, for the gold one, means as much or less money wise as the $350 for someone who can only afford the low model.

The theory seems to be that someone on low income will use a MASSIVE amount of savings to buy a very expensive gold cased watch from Apple, and because this person made such a personal commitment to the item Apple are going to look after them as an individual.

If we were talking about a small family run jeweler with personal clients over many years, then yes. But this is Apple we are talking about.
But business, High volume, throw it away and buy a new one.

I'd hate to think Apple won't change the body of the device for the next 10 years and just change the chip inside.

 

[poppy10]

Both the original iPhone and the original iPad were obsoleted within a year. The second gen versions had much more longevity, even though they were themselves superseded - you could still use the iPhone 3G for a few years, and many people are still rocking the iPad 2 (with iOS 8 no less).

Better to wait for the second gen Apple Watch unless you want to be a beta tester.

Plus this just looks ugly, you can't argue with that. Maybe they'll be able to make it a bit less bulky and have a higher quality screen on the second gen one.

 

[capitanbuzo]

Plus this just looks ugly, you can't argue with that. Maybe they'll be able to make it a bit less bulky and have a higher quality screen on the second gen one.

I didn't know you became dictator to make such subjective matters purely objective. It's absurd to make such grandiose comments such as that.

 

[cwedl]

I don't think there is anyway Apple will price the watches over $1000 (apart from the 18k gold one). If apple wants people to upgrade every year or whenever they release a new watch they need to price these accordingly. If I had the money I would spend $5K+ on a nice watch knowing that I would be keeping it for a very long time. Especially as I've heard from second hand sources that work for apple, they have advised for wait for Apple watch V2.

 

[Julien]

....Especially as I've heard from second hand sources that work for apple, they have advised for wait for Apple watch V2.

A janitor in the gym I train at said he was told by a friend who's nephew's wife worked for Apple to buy the 1 gen.

 

[saschke]

(...)Especially as I've heard from second hand sources that work for apple, they have advised for wait for Apple watch V2.

B*llsh*t.

 

[Rogifan]

Both the original iPhone and the original iPad were obsoleted within a year. The second gen versions had much more longevity, even though they were themselves superseded - you could still use the iPhone 3G for a few years, and many people are still rocking the iPad 2 (with iOS 8 no less).

Better to wait for the second gen Apple Watch unless you want to be a beta tester.

Plus this just looks ugly, you can't argue with that. Maybe they'll be able to make it a bit less bulky and have a higher quality screen on the second gen one.

Image

What do you mean by higher quality screen? It's a retina display. Andy Ihnatko who was at the event and saw the watch in person said the screen is "fantastic". Have you seen one in person?

Also as far as saying you can't argue with it looking ugly, well yes you can because ugly is completely subjective.