John Gruber's thoughts on Apple Watch

[cwedl]

A janitor in the gym I train at said he was told by a friend who's nephew's wife worked for Apple to buy the 1 gen.

B*llsh*t.

I agree, even I take it with a pinch of salt! But my opinion is, if Apple wants to update these yearly along with the rest of their iOS devices there's no way they can charge $5000 for this watch!

 

[Piggie]

I agree, even I take it with a pinch of salt! But my opinion is, if Apple wants to update these yearly along with the rest of their iOS devices there's no way they can charge $5000 for this watch!

Agreed, this numbers someone's wild fantasy

 

[Julien]

Agreed, this numbers someone's wild fantasy

As you very well know (or should) that number comes from John Gruber. While it may be wrong or right it has some foundation and is NOT just "someone's wild fantasy".



http://www.forbes.com/sites/ewanspence/2014/09/17/apple-watch-could-cost-ten-thousand-dollars/

http://www.businessinsider.co.id/ho...000-for-the-apple-watch-2014-10/#.VDxArIdNt38

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/john-gruber-gold-apple-watch-could-cost-5000-1465980

http://www.cnet.com/news/could-gold-apple-watch-cost-5000/

http://www.gsmarena.com/apple_watch_edition_price_to_start_at_5000_analyst_believes-news-9677.php

http://www.phonearena.com/news/Apple-Watch-Edition-price-to-start-at-5000_id60775

 

[Piggie]

Oh I'm aware everyone is going OMG Gold.

We'll see.

As I said long ago, Apple will either charge how much the thin gold case is actually worth and be a pioneer of gold and not stupid prices, so many can afford it. Which is Apple's way.

Or it will deliberately way overcharge what it's worth, and be a total rip off, but it will work well as advertising pieces to act as promotional items to carry the brand on.

We'll see.

I've guessed at $1500 for the Gold, due to the amount of gold I'm guessing is in there, and that Apple wants many people to enjoy it's products as a MASS production company, even for it's high end products.

I may be wrong. Time will tell.

If it's $5000+ you can tell me I was wrong

I'd buy the cheapest one that does the same function as it's just a metal case to me. It's what's inside and what it does that matters.
Could be plastic for all I care. A nice plastic

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

I think it will definitely be interesting to see how Apple does price the edition collection. Speculation ranges from $999 to $9,999. Quite a range there...

 

[Piggie]

I think it will definitely be interesting to see how Apple does price the edition collection. Speculation ranges from $999 to $9,999. Quite a range there...

Indeed, we shall see.

Let's remove ANY case and call it a $300 watch.

With a thin Aluminium it becomes $350

Stainless Steel is cheap, but there is a Sapphire back or some other tweak, so we could, wild guess, push that to $450, or even if we did push to $499

Getting from say $499 to $5000 simply be adding in say $500 dollars of gold. Even if we pushed it, and added in $1000 of gold.

How you could ever get that $300 same item to $5000 or even more seems to me not possible for a technology company as it will be pointed out in seconds, that you have a $300 item with say $500 or $1000 of gold added, and rather than $1500 it's $5000 I can't see how that would be explained away.

Why I'd saying $1500 for gold and have said that price for ages. Actually $1000 to $1500

but hey, I may be totally wrong

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

Stainless Steel is cheap, but there is a Sapphire back or some other tweak, so we could, wild guess, push that to $450, or even if we did push to $499


How you could ever get that $300 same item to $5000 or even more seems to me not possible for a technology company as it will be pointed out in seconds, that you have a $300 item with say $500 or $1000 of gold added, and rather than $1500 it's $5000 I can't see how that would be explained away.

Yeah this is the same line of thought I was thinking after the annoucment. The price would probably jump $100-$200 for the next model, and then another $200-$300 on top of that one for the gold. But after reading Gruber's post and thinking more about it, I realized that we are thinking like a tech company, not a fashion/jewelry company. Apple is positioning this as a fashion/jewelry piece that has technology in it not a tech watch that can also be a fashion piece.

Fashion/jewelry have astronomical mark ups. A piece of clothing could cost less than a dollar in material, but then charge $300 for it. A pair of earrings could cost $200 in material but then turn around and charge $3,000 for it. I'm not sure if Apple will take it that extreme, but why make the different collections and such a wide range of luxury bands, if they didn't want to capitilize on it. Expensive things are much more alluring. Heck if I knew people were buying a $9,000 Apple Watch, it might even make me more interested in the $400 model. Makes it seem like a steal! haha

 

[KPOM]

Let's remove ANY case and call it a $300 watch.

With a thin Aluminium it becomes $350

Stainless Steel is cheap, but there is a Sapphire back or some other tweak, so we could, wild guess, push that to $450, or even if we did push to $499

Getting from say $499 to $5000 simply be adding in say $500 dollars of gold. Even if we pushed it, and added in $1000 of gold.

How you could ever get that $300 same item to $5000 or even more seems to me not possible for a technology company as it will be pointed out in seconds, that you have a $300 item with say $500 or $1000 of gold added, and rather than $1500 it's $5000 I can't see how that would be explained away.

The issue is that you are thinking about the Edition as a piece of technology. It could well be marketed as a piece of jewelry that happens to have technology in it. Jewelry has very high margins. Stores like Burberry sell gold-plated stainless steel watches for $3,000-$5,000. The Edition will have a solid 18kt gold case.

 

[rkuo]

Indeed, we shall see.

Let's remove ANY case and call it a $300 watch.

With a thin Aluminium it becomes $350

Stainless Steel is cheap, but there is a Sapphire back or some other tweak, so we could, wild guess, push that to $450, or even if we did push to $499

Getting from say $499 to $5000 simply be adding in say $500 dollars of gold. Even if we pushed it, and added in $1000 of gold.

How you could ever get that $300 same item to $5000 or even more seems to me not possible for a technology company as it will be pointed out in seconds, that you have a $300 item with say $500 or $1000 of gold added, and rather than $1500 it's $5000 I can't see how that would be explained away.

Why I'd saying $1500 for gold and have said that price for ages. Actually $1000 to $1500

but hey, I may be totally wrong

Cost plus X is not the pricing model for any sort of luxury item. You really need to expand your understanding of how these items are priced.

 

[Julien]

Cost plus X is not the pricing model for any sort of luxury item. You really need to expand your understanding of how these items are priced.

That's not true. I know good and well there is $31,900 in leather costs in this product for a $100 profit. After looking I also see it contains some 'thin' inexpensive nickel.

 

[Piggie]

Cost plus X is not the pricing model for any sort of luxury item. You really need to expand your understanding of how these items are priced.

Yes, however it's not to blatant as a bit of electronics.

I am guessing, but I would take a wild stab that Rolex, do not say:

Hi. Here is our fine crafted mechanism, beautifully hand crafted, with a 9 jewel movement, make from the finest materials.

You can have this fine mechanism in an thin aluminium case for $350, in a thin steel case for $450 or a thin gold case for $10,000

Please note every aspect of this item is exactly the same quality, it's just the case material that we have changed, and we'll bring out a new one to replace this with in a years time.

To be honest, I would think top watch makers just look at what Apple are doing and smile at the gadget makers new little toy they are trying to impress the children with.

The biggest problem still I feel is does everyone want to be seen with the same watch?

Individuality is zero.

It's like me saying my iPad is totally unique as I have a different colour case than you and my wallpaper is different.

It's still an iPad that a million other people in the town may also be carrying
Mass produced non individual.

I thought one of the BIG main points of mens watches was the feeling of individuality. Not stepping off your private jet with the same watch the snotty teenager has on. but perhaps in a different colour.

I'm not being negative, just accepting what it is.
Mass produced gadget from Apple.
New market/category.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

I am guessing, but I would take a wild stab that Rolex, do not say:

Hi. Here is our fine crafted mechanism, beautifully hand crafted, with a 9 jewel movement, make from the finest materials.

You can have this fine mechanism in an thin aluminium case for $350, in a thin steel case for $450 or a thin gold case for $10,000

Please note every aspect of this item is exactly the same quality, it's just the case material that we have changed, and we'll bring out a new one to replace this with in a years time.

I honestly can't tell you if Rolex sells the exact same style in different materials, but I don't think it's that far of a stretch to assume it's possible. But a quick rolex search on amazon (granted probably not the most complete survey) shows that rolex watches can range from $4,300-$63,000. I'm pretty sure that price difference isn't on build quality. It's on materials. Sure there are slight differences in style, but is any style really inherently better than any other? Everything's subjective. If you want a super blingy, diamond encrusted watch that immediately shows you have a lot of money, then maybe the Apple watch isn't for you (obviously, I'm not talking about you personally). Also, Apple watch does have individuality with the bands. Some of them will certainly cost hundreds of dollars.

And I hate to break it to you, but yes even Rolex comes out with new watches every year. They don't wait a few years to make their buyers feel better about their purchases.

Addition: Checked out the Submariner Rolex watch (again on amazon). Same exact style, the stainless steal ranges from $7,000-$12,000 and the Gold options are $28,000-$32,000. Only difference is material

 

[Solomani]

He's predicting $999 and $4999 for the stainless steel/sapphire and 18K gold/sapphire models, respectively? Interesting.

I'm actually afraid of the spike in violent crime this will entail. People's hands being cut off just so their watches can be stolen.

 

[Mad Mac Maniac]

I'm actually afraid of the spike in violent crime this will entail. People's hands being cut off just so their watches can be stolen.

I assume you're joking?? First, there are already watches this (and more) expensive. Secondly, cutting off a hand would hardly be necessary to steal a watch...

But you do bring up a good point that Apple watches would certainly be very recognizable and could become more popular than other similarly priced watches? But on the other hand, it'd be pretty tough to identify a $350 Awatch from a $10,000 one at a distance.

 

[Solomani]

I assume you're joking?? First, there are already watches this (and more) expensive. Secondly, cutting off a hand would hardly be necessary to steal a watch...

Not joking. There is precedence for such violent muggings against.…. iPhones/iPads, as far back as 2010. Old news actually. Apparently new news to you?

I can post even more news articles of such violent attempts to pry iPhones from the hands of their owners, but you get the idea below:

iPhone thief slashes teen's finger

Thieves steal iPad, take man's finger with it

 

[Trey M]

That still doesn't mean it's not plated. I'll reserve my judgement until they actually produce it and it comes with an actual certificate to prove that it's 18k gold rather than just plated

Enjoy waiting on your certificate, bro.

 

[DisplacedMic]

thanks for posting! and i love the Andy Warhol quote

 

[Piggie]

I don't for one second think this is going to be Plated.

It's going to be Solid 18k Gold as Apple said.

My point is that people here, hear the word SOLID and think of a chunk of solid gold and instantly associate a massive price tag because it's SOLID.

Tell me this, and I shall give you an example which holds up well.

What if I was to tell you this 6" Easter Egg is made from SOLID chocolate.
what would you think?

Would you instantly think there must be a LOT of chocolate as I said the word Solid, or, as you know what Easter eggs are. They are a thin shell with a hollow inside that I just mean the thin shell is solid chocolate?

So, scale the Easter egg down to the size of an Apple watch, and make the shell from Gold.

See. It's still made from solid gold, and Apple are right, it is from Solid gold.
But solid means nothing.

It could be a 1 micron thick sheet of solid gold, and worth a few dollars.

As always Apple uses words very well.

A screen, a chip, a battery, some sensors, various other items, themselves screwed to I'm guessing an aluminium skeleton internal framework/body, and this all wrapped in a SOLID gold shell.

I simple feel people have heard the word "SOLID" and let their imagination run wild.

It's going to be solid, it's not going to be plated, but it can be as thin as Apple wishes to make it, to hit the price point they wish, and they can still legitimately use the term SOLID.

 

[Julien]

...

I simple feel people have heard the word "SOLID" and let their imagination run wild.

It's going to be solid, it's not going to be plated, but it can be as thin as Apple wishes to make it, to hit the price point they wish, and they can still legitimately use the term SOLID.

Been through this already and in the watch industry a sold gold case means exactly that. The entire watch case is made of gold. The case is 100% of the structural integrity of the watch. The case MUST be of sufficient thickness and rigidity in order to support and protect the watch. It CAN'T be thin like you keep saying over and over and over. If it's thin then it will have a flimsy cheep feel and easy bent (gold is already soft/malleable). Apple doesn't make flimsy cheep products and everyone (including watch experts who aren't easily fooled) who has held the Edition comment on the sold and hefty fell. We also have pics of the case and know it's not just a flimsy thin case.

You are 100% wrong about your thin cheep case theory you keep repeating.

 

[Piggie]

Been through this already and in the watch industry a sold gold case means exactly that. The entire watch case is made of gold. The case is 100% of the structural integrity of the watch. The case MUST be of sufficient thickness and rigidity in order to support and protect the watch. It CAN'T be thin like you keep saying over and over and over. If it's thin then it will have a flimsy cheep feel and easy bent (gold is already soft/malleable). Apple doesn't make flimsy cheep products and everyone (including watch experts who aren't easily fooled) who has held the Edition comment on the sold and hefty fell. We also have pics of the case and know it's not just a flimsy thin case.

You are 100% wrong about your thin cheep case theory you keep repeating.

Image

My point remains valid.

And I never said Cheap. I am just saying cheaper than some wild claims we here on these forums.

I never said flimsy either.

I am simply saying solid gold is a hollow case.

We can argue is we are talking about 1mm, 2mm or 3mm if you wish.

Not having hang on experience I do not know how strong a hollow shell of gold is at various thicknesses when machined into something the size and shape of the Apple watch.

Also, as yet we have no idea if the cases of these items are the supporting structure of them, or all the internals are fixed to, as I suggested an aluminium skeleton and the outer shell is less supportive than it may be on a normal mechanical device.

the width of the larger watch is 36.2mm, if we assumed the photo you have posted shows a true wall thickness and not a wrapped over edge for strength, like on a metal food can.

That wall is, as near as I can tell in photoshop 4.5% of the overall width of the watch.

So, we have a 36.2mm overall width, and the area between your arrows is showing a 4.5% of the device.

Your photo shows a wall thickness of 1.63mm

So, you would agree, this so called SOLID Gold case, is in reality, based upon your own image and arrows, just over 1.6mm thick.

This, to me seems totally resonable, it's a hollow case. Thick enough to be called solid gold, but not so thick as to be too heavy or waste valuable internal space.

Are you happy with this?

Again, I don't think most are thinking SOLID GOLD means 1.6mm thin outer shell, hence the wild, 5000, 10000+ price speculation.

 

[Julien]

My point remains valid....

I am simply saying solid gold is a hollow case.

We can argue is we are talking about 1mm, 2mm or 3mm if you wish.

....as I suggested an aluminium skeleton and the outer shell is less supportive than it may be on a normal mechanical device....
Your photo shows a wall thickness of 1.63mm....

This, to me seems totally resonable, it's a hollow case. Thick enough to be called solid gold, but not so thick as to be too heavy or waste valuable internal space.

Are you happy with this?

Again, I don't think most are thinking SOLID GOLD means 1.6mm thin outer shell, hence the wild, 5000, 10000+ price speculation.

The case is solid and not hollow. At 1.5mm to 2mm it is a solid and thick (not thin) watch case and you are WRONG about "...an aluminium [sic] skeleton and the outer shell [of gold]....". I spent over a decade in the jewelry business (have you ever disassembled a gold case watch before? I have) and I can tell you for a fact this is not the way quality solid case watches are made.

Here are some quotes from Ariel Adams:

...One of the biggest things the smartwatch industry has been criticized for is more or less ignoring the watch industry's lessons about materials and design. Compared to a handsome steel Rolex sports watch, a plastic square-screened smartwatch looks like a cheap toy...All of a sudden, Apple totally upped the ante with smartwatches produced from steel, aluminum, and gold....

...Even the case designs and information on the cases are reminiscent of traditional watches. I know for a fact that Apple engineers and mostly designers have been very carefully investigating the traditional watch industry to learn about timepieces. In a sense, the most secret fan of watches over the last few years has probably been Apple. The result is amazingly clear when looking at the finer details of the Apple Watch....

...The good news is that Apple is not likely to want the same margin for gold as luxury watch brands, but I can't see the gold Apple Watch being less than $5,000 - $10,000...

 

[Piggie]

The case is solid and not hollow. At 1.5mm to 2mm it is a solid and thick (not thin) watch case and you are WRONG about "...an aluminium [sic] skeleton and the outer shell [of gold]....". I spent over a decade in the jewelry business (have you ever disassembled a gold case watch before? I have) and I can tell you for a fact this is not the way quality solid case watches are made.

I'm sorry, I don't understand what you are saying in relation to your picture.

The red area in the photo above, you are saying that THAT red area highlighted in what is going to be the solid gold shell/case call it what you will.

We have established from your image that, the highlighted area is approx 1.6mm in width

You are agreeing with this size it seems, so we are all ok so far.

You then kind of then disregard all of this and say no, there is no inside other metal acting as the skeletal support structure which the components are screwed/fixed onto.

So, if we look back please at your photo, and your red marks, which you are saying in the gold, and I'm saying ok, yes I agree.

What is all the other black area between your red case markings and the components we see?
The black area. Metal? that things are screwed into?

What is this?

You are now seeming to imply, regardless of the photo, or you agreeing that it's lets say 1.5mm to 2mm thick red area, that the other internal black area does not exist.

Or, are you now saying that you feel all of that inside black area is going to be solid 18k gold also, not just the red area you highlighted?

I'm confused at the photo and your words say one thing, but you carry on so state things that the photo clearly contradicts.

Oh, and sorry, and I do not wish to be rude, but 10 years in the jewelry business is not really relevant here. you could of spent 60 years in the best watchmakers in the world. this is NOT A WATCH.
It's a tiny computer pretending to be a watch squashed into a watch looking rounded box on your wrist. I don't really think you can use any past quality watch experience onto this tech device.

 

[Julien]

....What is this?....

Gasket.

 

[mtmac]

I think it's ridiculous for people to say that this watch can't be upgraded, that it will wreak havoc at the apple store. You go to the department store to upgrade a watch battery, don't you? It takes all of 2-3 minutes. Once it is open, replacing a computer will take as long as replacing the battery. They're not going to have a swap program.

And just because they continue to support this watch, doesn't preclude them from designing other watches. Having it upgradeable won't limit their future plans. Just because they started building desktops, did that preclude them from building laptops?

Instead, you don't want to believe all the experts, saying that this will be upgradeable and expensive. Maybe it's because you like the gold one and want it for a grand. In the long run, it will be cheaper to buy a more expensive watch and pay for upgrades, than to pay a grand for every new hardware release.

And everyone agrees that the gold one will at least be $1000, right? That still means you paid twice as much for the case as you did for the guts. Apple has never spent or charged anywhere near this much for a case for any other product before; it only makes sense that it will be upgradeable.

 

[Julien]

I think it's ridiculous for people to say that this watch can't be upgraded....

While I believe it will probably be upgradable, saying it's "ridiculous" to question it is....well ridiculous. We have no evidence or knowledge to support it being either way. Also Apple is famous or infamous for limiting upgradability on their devices. As an example the new Mac mini has soldered RAM and no iDevice has a user replaceable battery or parts. Also what other Smart Watches are upgradable?

While I'm of the opinion it will be upgradable it's ludicrous to assume you can know this for a fact.

If you have some proof please share it with us. Otherwise it just conjecture at this point.