Excellent analysis. I believe this scenario to be the most likely one. I expect to be able to walk into an Apple Store on Tuesday and leave with an MBA.
I believe that just about everyone's ship date will change. Based on what I've seen here and my own order, the ship date is 3 weeks after the order date. This syncs with the promise of 2 to 3 weeks.
While I don't believe anyone's has shipped yet, I do believe it is imminent. All the big sites released their reviews yesterday and based on Apple's previously releases, the product hits store shelves within a few days.
The reason why all the reviews come out the same day is because they are embargoed. Apple sends them the equipment early with their commitment that they won't publish until Apple says they can. Apple wants the reviews to be out just before the product as part of their grand marketing plan.
I'd be surprised if they didn't ship by Sunday (or Tuesday at the latest as that is 2 weeks). I'd also be surprised if every order wasn't shipped the same day despite what your ship date states, because if they'd already sold out, the Apple Store wouldn't still say 2-3 weeks.