If Apple released a base model with at least 12 GB RAM, I would definitely consider switching from my Windows laptop.
even if the price increase? because if yes, then you can switch nowIf Apple released a base model with at least 12 GB RAM, I would definitely consider switching from my Windows laptop.
Question: Have you wonder why Apple rumored to launch M4 series by the end of the year? This round Apple will launch M4 from top to bottom including Mac Mini within a quarter period, why?
Mark Gurman can't tell you, but I can. The key ingredient missing is LPDDR6.
Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive. Next year, we should have at least 4 more players entering ARM PC market with Cortex-X5, which has faster IPC than M3/M4.
Before I explained why upcoming M4 series will support LPDDR6 standard and raise the maximum amount of RAM up to 512GB. Let me show you the current LPDDR5 RAM configuration so that you guys can prepare for what is coming later this year:
Memory Density 16Gb (2GB) M3 M3 Pro M3 Max M3 Max LPDDR5 Memory Bus 128-bit 192-bit 384-bit 512-bit Memory BW 100 GB/s 150 GB/s 308 GB/s 410 GB/s Memory Chips 2 pcs 3 pcs 3 pcs 4 pcs x2 = 4GB (S: 32-Gb) 8 GB x3 = 6GB (M: 48-Gb) 18 GB x4 = 8GB (S: 64-Gb) 16 GB x6 = 12GB (S: 96-Gb) 24 GB 36 GB 36 GB 48 GB x8 = 16GB (S: 128-Gb) 64 GB x16 = 32GB (256-Gb) 96 GB 128 GB
- Apple has reduced the memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit. You may ask why? Cost cutting? Nah, Apple actually increased the RAM from 16GB to 18GB by ordering 48-Gb memory chips from Micron.
- M3 Max is a different SoC with 128-bit memory bus connecting to each memory chip compared to 64-bit of M3 and M3 Pro. That's why Apple able to support 512-bit memory bus with 4 memory chips only.
Apple's Unique LPDDR6 Solution
View attachment 2368980
Shown above is the die shot of M3 SoC from Apple. M3 is connected to 128-bit LPDDR5-6400 with 102GB/s bandwidth. What could Apple do to support upcoming LPDDR6? If Apple going to support 128-bit LPDDR6, the memory bandwidth will be doubled. Nah, Apple won't be so generous especially M-series is used on tablet as well. Then, it hits me that Apple's weird decision to reduce memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit bus....
Yeah, Apple going to implement something weird yet make sense if you understand the logic behind. For upcoming M4 series, Apple going to introduce 96-bit memory bus of LPDDR6 per channel as shown below:-
Memory Density 32Gb (4GB) M4 M4 Pro M4 Max M4 Max LPDDR6 Memory Bus 96-bit 192-bit 288-bit 384-bit Memory BW 150 GB/s 307 GB/s 461 GB/s 614 GB/s + % + 50% + 100% + 50% + 50% Memory Chips 1 pc 2 pcs 3 pcs 4 pcs x3 = 12GB 12 GB 24 GB 36 GB 48 GB x5 = 20GB 20 GB 40 GB 80 GB x7 = 28GB 28 GB 56 GB x8 = 32GB 96 GB 128 GB x12 = 48GB 192 GB x16 = 64GB 256 GB
First of all, you have to understand Samsung, the biggest memory maker is making 24Gb (3GB) die as standard LPDDR6 die. Therefore, all the LPDDR6 memory chip will contain multiple layers of memory die, the most common one is x4 equal to 12GB.
Updates: Mark Gurman mentioned that M4 series going to support up to 512GB, it seems Apple goes even bigger for LPDDR6. They are going to ask Samsung to manufacture 32Gb (4GB) per die. I have updated the table to show new memory size.
Question: Have you wonder why Apple rumored to launch M4 series by the end of the year? This round Apple will launch M4 from top to bottom including Mac Mini within a quarter period, why?
Mark Gurman can't tell you, but I can. The key ingredient missing is LPDDR6.
Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive. Next year, we should have at least 4 more players entering ARM PC market with Cortex-X5, which has faster IPC than M3/M4.
Before I explained why upcoming M4 series will support LPDDR6 standard and raise the maximum amount of RAM up to 512GB. Let me show you the current LPDDR5 RAM configuration so that you guys can prepare for what is coming later this year:
Memory Density 16Gb (2GB) M3 M3 Pro M3 Max M3 Max LPDDR5 Memory Bus 128-bit 192-bit 384-bit 512-bit Memory BW 100 GB/s 150 GB/s 308 GB/s 410 GB/s Memory Chips 2 pcs 3 pcs 3 pcs 4 pcs x2 = 4GB (S: 32-Gb) 8 GB x3 = 6GB (M: 48-Gb) 18 GB x4 = 8GB (S: 64-Gb) 16 GB x6 = 12GB (S: 96-Gb) 24 GB 36 GB 36 GB 48 GB x8 = 16GB (S: 128-Gb) 64 GB x16 = 32GB (256-Gb) 96 GB 128 GB
- Apple has reduced the memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit. You may ask why? Cost cutting? Nah, Apple actually increased the RAM from 16GB to 18GB by ordering 48-Gb memory chips from Micron.
- Apple could use two 48-Gb to make 12GB standard in M3 but Apple didn't. Why? One reason is Apple is waiting for LPDDR6, another reason is the increment of 12-16-24 LPDDR5 is not linear.
- M3 Max is a different SoC with 128-bit memory bus connecting to each memory chip compared to 64-bit of M3 and M3 Pro. That's why Apple able to support 512-bit memory bus with 4 memory chips only.
Apple's Unique LPDDR6 Solution
View attachment 2368980
Shown above is the die shot of M3 SoC from Apple. M3 is connected to 128-bit LPDDR5-6400 with 102GB/s bandwidth. What could Apple do to support upcoming LPDDR6? If Apple going to support 128-bit LPDDR6, the memory bandwidth will be doubled. Nah, Apple won't be so generous especially M-series is used on tablet as well. Then, it hits me that Apple's weird decision to reduce memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit bus....
Yeah, Apple going to implement something weird yet make sense if you understand the logic behind. For upcoming M4 series, Apple going to introduce 96-bit memory bus of LPDDR6 per channel as shown below:-
Memory Density 32Gb (4GB) M4 M4 Pro M4 Max M4 Max LPDDR6 Memory Bus 96-bit 192-bit 288-bit 384-bit Memory BW 150 GB/s 307 GB/s 461 GB/s 614 GB/s + % + 50% + 100% + 50% + 50% Memory Chips 1 pc 2 pcs 3 pcs 4 pcs x3 = 12GB 12 GB 24 GB 36 GB 48 GB x5 = 20GB 20 GB 40 GB 80 GB x7 = 28GB 28 GB 56 GB x8 = 32GB 96 GB 128 GB x12 = 48GB 192 GB x16 = 64GB 256 GB
First of all, you have to understand Samsung, the biggest memory maker is making 24Gb (3GB) die as standard LPDDR6 die. Therefore, all the LPDDR6 memory chip will contain multiple layers of memory die, the most common one is x4 equal to 12GB. And that's the base memory size which connected to 64-bit memory bus. With 96-bit, Apple have to custom the pin connector on the memory chip to support extra 32-bit memory bus. The advantage is M4 will provide extra 50% memory bandwidth within single memory chip. Even with upcoming 64-bit LPDDR6X-16000 could only provide 128 GB/s bandwidth. Clearly, with 96-bit LPDDR6-12800, it provides Apple plenty of headroom for future generation.
And yes, Apple will keep using LPDDR6-12800 for many generations even after LPDDR6X arrive. Initially, Apple have to pay slightly more to Samsung due to custom design. With each faster LPDDR6 arrive, the current one will keep dropping price. And Apple will reap the benefits. Meanwhile, other OEMs will have to keep paying higher price each newer generation. Apple just keep selling newer generation of M-series with 12GB as standard. And that is game changer for Apple cause Apple no longer have to worry about ever increasing memory prices.
Updates: Mark Gurman mentioned that M4 series going to support up to 512GB, it seems Apple goes even bigger for LPDDR6. They are going to ask Samsung to manufacture 32Gb (4GB) per die. I have updated the table to show new memory size.
My speculation should be correct, if you guys have any questions, feel free to let me know....
Specualated RAM Memory Chips Memory Size Memory Die A17 Pro 1 8 GB 4 (2GB x 4) A18 Pro 1 12 GB 4 (3GB x 4) + % Same + 50% Same M3 2 8 GB 4 (2GB x 4) M4 1 12 GB 3 (4GB x 3) + % - 50% + 50% - 25% M3 Pro 3 18 GB 9 (2GB x 9) M4 Pro 2 24 GB 6 (4GB x 6) + % - 33% + 33% - 33% M3 Max 4 48 GB 24 (2GB x 24) M4 Max 4 48 GB 12 (4GB x 12) + % Same Same - 50%
Android phones have more RAM than iPhones and the sky isn't falling.
That is an interesting idea! Does LPDDR6 offer provision for 96bit busses? Do you have any additional information for this, I would be curious.
One potential difficulty I see is supply. Apple is often behind the cutting edge on RAM simply because they need volumes that dwarf everything else in the industry. Apple's market might be smaller than some other brands, but every single Apple product is essentially a flagship product. This makes it much more difficult for them to produce the chips in the quantities needed. I was talking to an Apple manager close to iPhone production some time ago and he flat out told me that the main reason why Apple uses relatively small RAM capacities on the iPhone is because otherwise they would crash the DRAM market.
Do you think there is a high chance of that happening? Cortex-X4 doesn't reach the IPC of M1. Not that M3 IPC is any higher, of course.
I've never seen a reserved post before. I'm brimming with anticipation of what you will fill this with.Reserved
Sounds like you need more RAM.I glimpsed the whole thing looking for a TL;DR. So good for you or sorry about that, I ain't reading all that.
Thanks for liking Reserved post, lol....😅I've never seen a reserved post before. I'm brimming with anticipation of what you will fill this with.
I very much appreciate this post. For a year I've speculated Apple will be moving to 12 GB RAM defaults with the M4, so its refreshing seeing a detailed breakdown as to why.
To add some more context as to why this is good for users worried about "low RAM":
That doesn't resolve that Apple overcharges for RAM and storage upgrades, but starting at 12 GB isn't too shabby for a MacBook Air.
- Arguably, 8 GB isn't a lot for Macs because macOS + GPU would take 1-3 GB of RAM (so lets average to 2 GB)
- That means applications are left with 6 GB of available memory
- But an update to 12 GB means applications will be left with 10 GB of available memory
- That is a 67% increase in available memory just by getting the M4 over the M3
I'm also going to assume that those who would have paid for a 16 GB upgrade will now get 24 GB as the next upgrade option. That's pretty neat. Correct me if I'm wrong.
I actually believe it. From another post I wrote:
"RAM Defaults in Macs?
What was the default RAM in Macs, how long did it stay, and when did it change? For simplicity, I’ll start from the Steve Jobs era, and I will only focus on the consumer portables.
32MB. This was used in the iBook and iBook Special Edition in July, 1999 until it was discontinued in September, 2000. It lasted 14 months.
64MB. This was used in the Firewire iBooks from September 2000 until the Dual USB iBooks in October 2001. It lasted 13 months.
128MB. This was used in the late 2001 iBooks released in October 2001 through the iBook G4, discontinued in April, 2004. It lasted 32 months
256MB. This was used in the Early 2004 iBook G4 released in April, 2004 through the late 2004 iBook G4 released in October 2004, sold until July, 2005. It lasted 15 months.
512MB. This was used from the Mid 2005 iBook G4 released in July, 2005, until the Mid 2007 MacBook, which was sold until November, 2007. It lasted 28 months.
1GB. This was used in the Late 2007 MacBook released on November, 2007 until the MacBook Late 2008, discontinued in January, 2009. It lasted 25 months.
2GB. This was used in the Late 2008 AL MacBook released on October, 2008, until the MacBook Air 11”, Mid 2011, which was discontinued n June, 2012. This lasted 44 months.
4GB. This was used in the MacBook Air 13”, Mid 2011 released in July, 2011 until the MacBook Air, 13” Early 2015, which was discontinued in June, 2017. This lasted for 71 months.
8GB. This was used as standard on MacBook Air, 2017, released on June, 2017 until now, in November, 2023. 77 months and counting.
Clearly, the amount of time machines stayed at 1GB was half what the time for 2GB, which was almost half of what 4GB. I expect 16GB to become standard in another 40 months or thereabouts, if trends continue. "
So, 16GB as default should happen in about 60 months, or 5 years. But there's no reason why Apple can't increase it by 50%, or 12GB of RAM, and then do another 4GB increase in another 2 1/2 years.
It'll meet the timeline and past trends.
Some of this makes a lot of sense. We will need more ram and more memory bandwidth for on device AI. That's a fact.
Smaller memory busses mean less die spaces used for memory controllers, which eqaul more die space for things that matter like cache, NPU for AI.
Less memory chips required to exceed previous capacity and speed, saving money in BOM
I think LPDDR6 is 'too new' for apple who is fairly conservative. But that's my opinion.
It's also possible the bigger chips Max/Ultra/Extreme whatever adopt HBM on the ultra high end to compete with memory bandwidth of Nvidia GPUs (but that's super speculation territory)
But that doesn’t factor in the LPDDR6 change, which is was all this is based onAlready heard last year, did not happen (12GB min).
No, it depends on what Apple wants. If Apple wants 12GB, then they will ask Samsung to stack 3 pcs together to create 12GB memory chip.I wholeheartedly wish you are right, and we get bigger and faster RAM with the M4s and don’t have to wait until the M5 gen.
By the way, I don’t understand your update of 4GB I per die. Would that mean that we get stuck with 8GB (2x), 16GB (4x), 32GB (x8) per die?
Well since we’re having fun, I think Apple should revert base model Airs and Pros to 4 GB RAM—I swear a bunch of Mac users here and on Reddit would love to argue how 4 GB is sufficient for most people.Nice detailed post!
just for fun I think Apple should continue selling an 8GB RAM base MacBook Air until 2027 just to make 10 years 🤣
That's an interesting point, and it would be applicable if, say, LPDDR6 were already in commercial production at a low level back when Apple needed to decide on the RAM spec for M4. In that case, production engineers would know enough about the process to know how long it would take to ramp up production, and thus be able to essentially guarantee the needed number of chips at a future date, if a contract were signed.Apple is conservative primarily because it protects their profit margins. Apple's RAM and SSD pricing is at least as much about margins as it is technology. If Apple gave the memory providers an accurate demand projection ~3 years ahead of time and a 'rock solid' contractual obligation to buy that much , it would mostly be there. Apple doesn't want to sign up for the liability and doesn't want the margin risk.
I don't know about that. Tim Cook, being the corporate MBA degree holding suit that he is, has a pattern of using old technology if it will cut down on manufacturing costs in order to maximize profits. For example, the latest non-Pro iPhone still has USB 2.0 data speeds:Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive.
In fact, they will say Apple Silicon’s 512GB of RAM is the equivalent of 16TB on windows world. Typical Apple magic And unprecedented RAM efficiency.Can't see this happening, since all the Apple polishers say 8 GB of RAM is plenty enough for most people.
Edit: Spelling error.
We all know they'll find a way to engineer it so they can start the base model at 8GB.If Apple released a base model with at least 12 GB RAM, I would definitely consider switching from my Windows laptop.
Apple sometimes uses old tech, but the notion that Cook is involved in decisions like this is ridiculous.I don't know about that. Tim Cook, being the corporate MBA degree holding suit that he is, has a pattern of using old technology if it will cut down on manufacturing costs in order to maximize profits. For example, the latest non-Pro iPhone still has USB 2.0 data speeds:
Will iPhone 14 be USB 2.0? Probably, since Cook is mediocre.
Apple computers have had USB 3.0 since mid-2012. That is 10 years ago. Despite that, Tim Cook, being the mediocre beancounter MBA suit that he is, has still not done anything to upgrade the connectivity on the latest iPhones. The latest iPhones use the same USB 2.0 connectivity that shipped with...forums.macrumors.com
yea...some people try so hard on their own time and in the end Apple will do what they love to doWhat if they reduce it to 6GB base? LOL. You will take it and love it!
Well, based on the last two iterations, it’s likely that the next entry-level Mac laptop will be the current M3 Air, probably still starting at 8GB, replacing the current M2 Air. The question is what happens to the base M4 MacBook Pro and M4 Air - both “better than entry level” machines which really need more RAM (and SSD) as standard to be taken seriously.yea...some people try so hard on their own time and in the end Apple will do what they love to do
Im feeling this will age very poorly when we will have again base Macbook with 8gb