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Xiao_Xi

macrumors 68000
Oct 27, 2021
1,628
1,101
I worked this out in another thread, but the single-core improvement in Intel’s top range consumer i7 from 2013 to 2020 was only 37% over 7 years (i7-4771 to i7-10700K), so an average improvement of ~5.2% per year.
Intel has improved much faster these last few years. The i7 has improved from 10th to 12th generation as much as from 4th to 10th generation.

Intel Core i7-12700K - ST 4057
Intel Core i7-10700K - ST 3072
Intel Core i7-4771 - ST 2193
 
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CJF93

macrumors member
Jun 23, 2022
48
50
Amateurs, RANK AMATEURS! I can’t wait to see the look on your faces when I, having waited for M6, will have a system that wipes the M5 off the page!
By the time you wiped the M5 off, I would be waving goodbye in my M7 Ultra MAX + Chip
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
I worked this out in another thread, but the single-core improvement in Intel’s top range consumer i7 from 2013 to 2020 was only 37% over 7 years (i7-4771 to i7-10700K), so an average improvement of ~5.2% per year.

I’m well aware of this because I decided I wouldn’t upgrade from my Late 2013 27” iMac until I could at least double my single-core performance. The fastest Intel iMac ever produced (Mid 2020 27”) only offered a 37% benefit after 7 long years, whereas my 14” MBP (and even the cheapest MBA and Mini) cleanly double its single core score.

If Apple can keep up a steady 10% yearly average improvement they’ll be well ahead of where they were during the Intel years.
Actually, because the performance increases compound, I think if the total improvement over 7 years was 37%, the average annual improvement was 4.6%. It’s geometric, not arithmetic. (1.046^7=1.37)

Also, it’s worth noting that there have been 2 years between M1 and M2, so the annual improvement by Apple is sqrt(1.1)=4.8%. Comparing generations doesn’t make sense, we need to compare over time.

And I don’t subscribe to the “it’s all about short term supply chain issues” theory. Intel has had short term issues over the past 7 years also.

All in all, I think the M1->M2 was a respectable update, and people thinking it was going to be more ground breaking than it was were probably underestimating how well optimized the existing architecture is. Apple didn’t trip, they kept pace, that’s what I expect. Over the long time horizon, I expect the gap between AS and Intel to slowly widen to Apple’s benefit, but not by 20% a year.

Besides, the real story of AS isn’t the cores at all, it’s the overall heterogenous architecture and SoC construction.
 

apparatchik

macrumors 6502a
Mar 6, 2008
883
2,689
Actually, because the performance increases compound, I think if the total improvement over 7 years was 37%, the average annual improvement was 4.6%. It’s geometric, not arithmetic. (1.046^7=1.37)

Also, it’s worth noting that there have been 2 years between M1 and M2, so the annual improvement by Apple is sqrt(1.1)=4.8%. Comparing generations doesn’t make sense, we need to compare over time.

And I don’t subscribe to the “it’s all about short term supply chain issues” theory. Intel has had short term issues over the past 7 years also.

All in all, I think the M1->M2 was a respectable update, and people thinking it was going to be more ground breaking than it was were probably underestimating how well optimized the existing architecture is. Apple didn’t trip, they kept pace, that’s what I expect. Over the long time horizon, I expect the gap between AS and Intel to slowly widen to Apple’s benefit, but not by 20% a year.

Besides, the real story of AS isn’t the cores at all, it’s the overall heterogenous architecture and SoC construction.

Yes, and the perf per watt, in which the gap is already significant. They seem like details but current Intel offerings can either perform competitively or have competitive battery life, not both. As long as those desktop replacement laptops with discreet graphics are turned off the performance halves so they can achieve a somewhat similar battery life.
 
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Tagbert

macrumors 603
Jun 22, 2011
6,256
7,281
Seattle

Also, it’s worth noting that there have been 2 years between M1 and M2, so the annual improvement by Apple is sqrt(1.1)=4.8%. Comparing generations doesn’t make sense, we need to compare over time.
19 months

Will be interesting to see what Apples update cadence becomes when they don’t need to worry about supply chain delays
 
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ahurst

macrumors 6502
Oct 12, 2021
410
815
Actually, because the performance increases compound, I think if the total improvement over 7 years was 37%, the average annual improvement was 4.6%. It’s geometric, not arithmetic. (1.046^7=1.37)

Also, it’s worth noting that there have been 2 years between M1 and M2, so the annual improvement by Apple is sqrt(1.1)=4.8%. Comparing generations doesn’t make sense, we need to compare over time.
I was using Apple's self-reported 18% single-core improvement over 18 months to get the ~10% number, but with the official Ars Technica review out with actual GeekBench 5 scores (what I was comparing the iMacs with) it looks like overall single-core gains on that specific metric are indeed ~10% from M1 to M2.

Intel has improved much faster these last few years. The i7 has improved from 10th to 12th generation as much as from 4th to 10th generation.

Intel Core i7-12700K - ST 4057
Intel Core i7-10700K - ST 3072
Intel Core i7-4771 - ST 2193
Yep, they definitely played some long-overdue catch-up with Alder Lake, but given how much they increased TDP to achieve that I highly doubt that rate of improvement is sustainable. Intel's track record over the past 20 years is to release major architectural improvements with huge performance gains (Core 2 Duo, Core i3/i5/i7) and then make incremental improvements over the better part of the decade until the next architecture shift. Unless they've got some serious tricks up their sleeve, I don't expect the next few generations of Intel CPUs to break from that pattern.
 

Unregistered 4U

macrumors G4
Jul 22, 2002
10,610
8,628
Yep, they definitely played some long-overdue catch-up with Alder Lake, but given how much they increased TDP to achieve that I highly doubt that rate of improvement is sustainable.
I’m convinced that their TDP was directly related to their desire to just put up better total performance numbers than Apple’s solution at all costs. One unforeseen outcome from Apple Silicon could be Intel has TDP spikes at every generation. :)
 
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Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
I’m convinced that their TDP was directly related to their desire to just put up better total performance numbers than Apple’s solution at all costs. One unforeseen outcome from Apple Silicon could be Intel has TDP spikes at every generation. :)
I’m wondering when Apple is going to start to become willing to let their chips get hot. The fact that the Mac Studio Ultra basically just sits there at room temp suggests they have some headroom. I’ve heard indications that the AS parts aren’t designed to just clock up at higher voltages, I suspect they’re optimized for the clock they run at. So if they‘re willing to run hotter, it would probably mean not scaling the exact same design from MBA to MacStudio and beyond.
 

quarkysg

macrumors 65816
Oct 12, 2019
1,247
841
I’m wondering when Apple is going to start to become willing to let their chips get hot. The fact that the Mac Studio Ultra basically just sits there at room temp suggests they have some headroom. I’ve heard indications that the AS parts aren’t designed to just clock up at higher voltages, I suspect they’re optimized for the clock they run at. So if they‘re willing to run hotter, it would probably mean not scaling the exact same design from MBA to MacStudio and beyond.
IMHO, I would think Apple would also want to have software consistency that scales from their entry level all the way to their top of the line Macs. So I would think its quite unlikely that the high end Macs would have vastly better single core performance compared to their entry level Macs. The differentiating factor across the scale would just be more cores.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
IMHO, I would think Apple would also want to have software consistency that scales from their entry level all the way to their top of the line Macs. So I would think its quite unlikely that the high end Macs would have vastly better single core performance compared to their entry level Macs. The differentiating factor across the scale would just be more cores.

I guess I’m not sure what you mean…. Why would there be a problem with their high end models being faster than their entry models? Isn’t it more strange that they’re not?
 

Unregistered 4U

macrumors G4
Jul 22, 2002
10,610
8,628
I’m wondering when Apple is going to start to become willing to let their chips get hot. The fact that the Mac Studio Ultra basically just sits there at room temp suggests they have some headroom. I’ve heard indications that the AS parts aren’t designed to just clock up at higher voltages, I suspect they’re optimized for the clock they run at. So if they‘re willing to run hotter, it would probably mean not scaling the exact same design from MBA to MacStudio and beyond.
Never. Intel/AMD’s have to get hot because they’re in a back and forth running the same code and one has to provide a faster result than the other. Apple’s completely out of that arena now, they only have to be more performant than the last released Mac of a given type. I’d imagine at some point, Intel and AMD processors could reach double digit gigahertz and pulling insane amounts of power. While Apple will chart out steady improvements year over year.

My personal thought has always been that iPhone chips COULD be clocked higher as I’m sure they bin chips like everyone. The big difference is that, since they don’t have to support a wide range of cheap solutions that they make for others, they just toss everything below, say 2 GHz. Some undoubtedly could run higher, but as Apple are writing the software the chips will eventually run (and writing the software that will create the software that others write), they know that 2GHz is not only a good speed for the particular chip, it’s also a speed that most of them will be able to easily hit, yielding more good chips per run. I can’t envision them ever being in a situation where an Intel processor doing something faster is a thing they ever need to be concerned about again.
 

Unregistered 4U

macrumors G4
Jul 22, 2002
10,610
8,628
I guess I’m not sure what you mean…. Why would there be a problem with their high end models being faster than their entry models? Isn’t it more strange that they’re not?
That’s just because of what chip vendors that make general purpose solutions have trained folks to think. When you really think about it, if all the chips are built from the same basic foundations, shouldn’t they all offer similar single threaded performance? The cheapest Apple Silicon offers amazing single threaded performance because it’s a derivative of the top end with fewer corses. The cheapest Intel is intentionally created to not encroach on the single threaded performance of their high end.
 

AZhappyjack

Suspended
Jul 3, 2011
10,183
23,657
Happy Jack, AZ
We have seen the results of testing. M2 appears to basically be m1.1. It is still based on 5nm and the speed increase appears to be directly related to the increase in cores/die size.

If anything this makes me appreciative of my m1 MacBook Air as it is holding strong performance wise this year. I will definitely be waiting for the 3nm m3 as I believe the performance and battery efficiency will be sog if I a toy better.

Why do you all think?
It's Apple's SOC... they can call it whatever they want... since the beginning of the personal computer, processors have made incremental advances, so nothing to get worked up about... I have an M1 Max in my Mac Studio and an M1 in my MBA... both perform extremely well for my use, so I will "limp" along until I need a new computer and then buy what ever Apple makes available, regardless of what they call it.
 

jav6454

macrumors Core
Nov 14, 2007
22,303
6,264
1 Geostationary Tower Plaza
Intel has improved much faster these last few years. The i7 has improved from 10th to 12th generation as much as from 4th to 10th generation.

Intel Core i7-12700K - ST 4057
Intel Core i7-10700K - ST 3072
Intel Core i7-4771 - ST 2193
That's cause they got complacent and when AMD and Apple came strong into the market they reacted; late reaction.
 

Darkseth

macrumors member
Aug 28, 2020
50
89
Die size increased by 20% and performance increased by 20%. Its m1.1. You can argue that it’s based on a15 all you want but you can’t argue performance vs die size.
that's not how it works.
Core Size are 100% identical and performance increased by 20% (18, but whatever). This comes because it's based of A15 and not A14. Architecture optimizations and Clockspeed, also bigger cache?!

The WHOLE SOC-Die increased in size. Because now there's a dedicated Media Engine, bigger Neural Engine, and maybe some IO changes for stuff like 24gb Ram.
All of those things do Nothing for the CPU performance.

Look at the M1 Pro vs. M1 Max. Huge Die Size difference and transistor count. But CPU Performance is absolutely completely identical, because the CPU Cores are identical.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
That’s just because of what chip vendors that make general purpose solutions have trained folks to think. When you really think about it, if all the chips are built from the same basic foundations, shouldn’t they all offer similar single threaded performance? The cheapest Apple Silicon offers amazing single threaded performance because it’s a derivative of the top end with fewer corses. The cheapest Intel is intentionally created to not encroach on the single threaded performance of their high end.

Why would I want my desktop chip with room for much more thermal management to have the same single threaded performance as my phone? I understand how that’s easier for Apple, because they have less designs to manage, but how is it better for me? Perhaps Intel cripples their low end part to protect their high end, but Apple is probably limiting desktop performance by limiting to what can be done in a phone.

I say probably, because I obviously don’t know what the design limitations are, but it stands to reason that if relax some constraints (thermal limits) you open up some design possibilities.

Never. Intel/AMD’s have to get hot because they’re in a back and forth running the same code and one has to provide a faster result than the other. Apple’s completely out of that arena now, they only have to be more performant than the last released Mac of a given type. I’d imagine at some point, Intel and AMD processors could reach double digit gigahertz and pulling insane amounts of power. While Apple will chart out steady improvements year over year.

My personal thought has always been that iPhone chips COULD be clocked higher as I’m sure they bin chips like everyone. The big difference is that, since they don’t have to support a wide range of cheap solutions that they make for others, they just toss everything below, say 2 GHz. Some undoubtedly could run higher, but as Apple are writing the software the chips will eventually run (and writing the software that will create the software that others write), they know that 2GHz is not only a good speed for the particular chip, it’s also a speed that most of them will be able to easily hit, yielding more good chips per run. I can’t envision them ever being in a situation where an Intel processor doing something faster is a thing they ever need to be concerned about again.
Apple still competes with other PC vendors. Obviously some people will make some compromises to run MacOS and keep their familiar workflows, but in the end people have jobs to do and if Intel can do those jobs significantly faster then they will leave Apple— just as people are leaving Intel now to move to the M1 series laptops.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
Good point, so the M series improved 11% per year: 1.11^(19/12) = 1.18

That’s pretty significant compared to the 4.6% Intel figure mentioned above.
Or 6.2% if you take the Geekbench single core results of 10% improvement.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
9,360
12,603
The new M2 chip is a Lemon.

Lets cook some eggs.

Not going to give that video a view, but based on the click-me thumbnail it looks like the M2 is running at 104C. I seem to remember that M1 ran at 100C. Are we supposed to get up in arms that M2 is running 1% hotter?

Remember, physics depends on Kelvin, not Celsius.
 
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MauiPa

macrumors 68040
Apr 18, 2018
3,438
5,084
The $1199 starting price is going to help keep demand in check while Apple ramps up production. This is typical Apple with a new product release, they did it before with the 2018 MacBook Air introduction. The price will eventually come down, but for now it’s meant to recoup the investment in the new form factor.
Of course anytime someone makes an ill advised snarky complaint about price they always seem to neglect that comparable windows machines seem to cost more, why is that? Maybe SSD, CPU, display quality, build quality don’t matter? I mean this is way more money than a cheap Chromebook or a cheap low power windows craptop
 
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