Actually, because the performance increases compound, I think if the total improvement over 7 years was 37%, the average annual improvement was 4.6%. It’s geometric, not arithmetic. (1.046^7=1.37)
Also, it’s worth noting that there have been 2 years between M1 and M2, so the annual improvement by Apple is sqrt(1.1)=4.8%. Comparing generations doesn’t make sense, we need to compare over time.
And I don’t subscribe to the “it’s all about short term supply chain issues” theory. Intel has had short term issues over the past 7 years also.
All in all, I think the M1->M2 was a respectable update, and people thinking it was going to be more ground breaking than it was were probably underestimating how well optimized the existing architecture is. Apple didn’t trip, they kept pace, that’s what I expect. Over the long time horizon, I expect the gap between AS and Intel to slowly widen to Apple’s benefit, but not by 20% a year.
Besides, the real story of AS isn’t the cores at all, it’s the overall heterogenous architecture and SoC construction.