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M2 MacBook Pro
- Thread starter Worlrl
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Apple have only just released the M1 Pro / M1 Max MacBook Pro's, the 14" and the 16" MBP will not be updated for at least a year, maybe longer.
The M1 13" MBP and the MBA were released a year ago and are not expected to be updated until 2022, well the MBA at least. I suspect that the 13" MBP will be dropped when they update the MBA as it is now the only MacBook with the Touch Bar. I would assume the MBA will be updated Q1/Q2 next year.
Any M2 chips will likely be manufactured on TSMC 5nm+ and be based around the A15 cores and accelerators. A16 also likely can’t wait on 3nm and will be on the half-step 4nm unless Apple is willing to take the financial hit of delaying the iPhone launch. Given that we’re in the middle of a complete Mac product line overhaul and a global supply chain crises, we simply don’t know what Apple’s product cycles will be when things settle down.
It's possible that Apple will skip a generation and use A16 cores and accelerators in M2. Apple designed bigger 'X' derivatives of A10/A12/A14 for iPad Pro and Mac (M1 == A14X), but there was no A11X or A13X.
Though the rumors peg the M2 as coming in early summer next year. So it would be before the iPhone chip. However I suppose this is possible since 4nm is available for high volume production pretty soon and if 3nm isn’t available even for the iPhone anyway … yeah maybe they will release the M2 based on the A16 cores/accelerators. Or in that case would the A16 be based on it? ? I hadn’t considered that as a possibility.
Source? I’ve read that the design of the Rhodes SoC (M2 Pro/Max) was finished in April this year and is currently in trial production on TSMC’s 5nm enhanced node. That would suggest that the Staten SoC (M2) would be even further along.
https://appleinsider.com/articles/2...icon-roadmap-hints-at-new-mac-pro-macbook-air
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/202...oadmap-reveals-plans-for-mac-pro-macbook-air/
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I think that Apple will drop the 13" MBP; the Air will be M2 and the MacBook Pros will be M2-Pro/Max.
Eventually Apple will release an "M2 Pro" and "M2 MAX" SoC for the MacBook Pro line. I would not expect them much before mid-2023, frankly (figuring Apple wanted to launch the M1 Pro/MAX at WWDC this year and calculating a two-year product lifecycle).
Not sure where you're getting those dates from, but I doubt it takes a year and a half for Apple/TSMC to go from trial production to full production. @cmaier any idea how long that usually takes?
It has nothing to do with how quickly TSMC can produce the SoCs and everything to do with when Apple wants TSMC to start producing the SoCs.
I do not believe Apple is going to desire to be on an annual upgrade cycle. They already are not with the base SoC, otherwise we would have seen "M2" launch this month (one year after the release of M1) rather than 1H 2022 as most analysts are predicting.
As such, I do not believe Apple will release "M2X" at WWDC 2022 or Fall 2022, but instead will push it to more mid-2023 to allow the "Mac mini Pro" and "iMac Pro" to arrive in 1H 2022 with M1 Pro and M1 Max and then the Apple Silicon Mac Pro with two and four M1 MAX SoCs at WWDC 2022 (either a launch announcement with shipments by year end or actual orders taking place after the keynote ends).
There will be a N4 when N3 was supposed to be. Should still represent a nice improvement.
While Apple may settle on 12-18-24 month product cycles for some of its chips and products, I wouldn’t expect a regular cadence to necessarily happen right away for the new Macs. For instance, reportedly Apple had to delay the current 14” & 16” MBP and thus the Pro/Max chips because of trouble sourcing the new screens in enough quantities. So some cycles might be longer but then shorter as Apple updates the bodies, screens, and chips.
Ah sorry, I was thinking about M2 Pro chip
Shouldn’t be posting this late at night As to M2 „MacBook Pro“, I expect it to be discontinued next year. There will probably be a redesigned air and that it.
It is more a marketing thing. Some people will but an iPhone every year, or every other year. But for Macs, year on year purchasing would be a lot lower. Every couple of years is a lot more reasonable and the improvements generation on generation would thus be more substantial and more worth getting.
Apple had the golden age of Macs doing two(!!) refreshes per year. They only stopped because the semiconductor industry stagnated (Intels tick tick broke down). Now that they they took the matters back into their hand they can easily return to the more rapid upgrade cycle.
Exactly. I expect them to settle on a yearly cycle of 15% performance improvements, with bigger improvements (form factors, screen changes, port differences, camera changes, etc.) every 2-3 years. The wildcard is that the supply chains are all screwed up right now and it will take them some time to get everything cranking on all cylinders - they haven’t even rolled out version 1 of the entire chip lineup yet.
Were they? I mean, looking at the timeline of the 15" model (just a slice), we had updates:
October 14, 2008
March 3, 2009
June 8, 2009
April 13, 2010
February 24, 2011
October 24, 2011
June 11, 2012
February 13, 2013
October 22, 2013
July 29, 2014
May 19, 2015
And from there it slowed down because that was exactly the time of Intel stagnation...
Their traditional redesign period is around 4 years, so your 2-3 years might be a bit optimistic but it also depends on what tech innovations are there. For example, the next-gen OLED technology with HDR levels is rumored to hit around 2025, which is exactly in line with a 4-year redesign cycle.
Good point. I guess it depends on whether they save up all the changes and do it at once, or do smaller changes along the way. For example, just playing guessing games here, but the M3 Max/Pro MBPs should come out in about 2 years, and might have upgraded HDMI and SD ports. Maybe wifi 6e. Two years later and you get new screen tech (I still don’t get why they’d flip from miniLED to OLED, but that seems to be their plan) and maybe some physical differences.
Or do they go with M1 for two years, then M2 for two years? Maybe with speed bumps in-between?
We really have no information about this brave new world.