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M2 MacBook Pro
- Thread starter Worlrl
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Judging by their previous releases, they did implement minor internal component changes without the full chassis redesign. I don't really see any issue in upgrading the HDMI port for example, you don't need to redesign the chassis for that. Not to mention that this new chassis is really designed to be "future-proof", the cooling capacity is a total overkill for how little heat these chips produce (well, except M1 Max in the 14" chassis which is a bit bonkers anyway...)
Unfortunately, Macrumor forum rules reward troll posts more than people who put effort into them.Am I, though?
I’ll post a little here, but mostly I will be at another place now.
Sure. At this point it’s really a marketing decision and not an engineering decision. What do they have to do each year to keep the sales rolling and prevent whispers of “apple is losing ground to wintel because of the Arm switch?”
Alder Lake on laptops is expected to recapture the ST & MT crown from Apple in benchmarks (not sure about real applications).
Intel can then tout in marketing that they have the world's "fastest" laptop chip despite using much more power.
I suspect that Apple would want to update the M, M Pro, and the M Max chips on a yearly cadence and the Mac Pro SoC every 2 years so they can quiet down the Intel marketing. There is no reason they can't do it every year.
People argued that the AX series that went into the iPad didn't get a yearly update. But that was lower volume. Now the AX series is the base M series which goes into the iPad Pro, Macbook Air, iMac, and Mac Mini. The number of devices supported is several times more which means Apple has more reasons to update on a yearly basis. If Apple updates the base M series every year, then they're already halfway to the Pro/Max series which will support the Macbook Pros, iMac Pros, and the Mac Mini pro version.
Basically, Apple has a lot of reasons to do yearly updates due to how many devices will benefit.
I would expect the current 13" MacBook Air & MacBook Pro to be discontinued; replaced by 12" & 14" M2 SoC powered MacBook laptops...?
The March 2009 date looks off as it's not in Mactracker but the other dates seem correct.
To continue on lets see when they released from 2015 till now
May 2015
October 2016
June 2017
July 2018
May 2019
November 2019 (16 inch)
October 2021 (16 inch)
I assume pre 2015 the MBPs were all high end as the MB and MBA covered the low end segment.
When did Apple start selling low end MBPs?
It seems the yearly cycle appears to be because of Intel stagnation as you have suggested.
Would Apple do yearly AS Mac refreshes? Early in the year for low end and later in the year for high end?
The pre-2015 dates feel all over the place, whenever Intel had something ready.
At least we know now that the move from M1 to M2 or M2 to M3 would be a substantial change. Not just a really minor update. Like the July 2001 iMac as an example. Very minor change.
I highly doubt the 14" Pro will get the base M2 SoC in the future. The chassis is complete overkill for the base M2 SoC which can be run fanless. People wouldn't want such a bulky machine just for the base M2.
But this leaves a gap between the $999 Macbook Air and the $2000 14" Pro. This is where the Macbook Air 16" rumors come in and make total sense. You can design a thin and light 16" and put it at $1600.
I could envision a line up like this in 2023:
$750 - Macbook SE (using current 13" MBA chassis & screen)
$1100 - 14" Macbook Air
$1600 - 16" Macbook Air
$2000 - 14" Macbook Pro
$2500 - 16" Macbook Pro
This would be an extremely strong lineup and would take market share away from Windows laptops fast in my opinion.
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I never said there would be a M2 14" MacBook Pro, I clearly stated MacBook; meaning both the 13" MacBook Air & Pro models would go away, as would the "Air" suffix...
There could be a more simple Apple laptop lineup:
12" MacBook - Mn SoC
14" MacBook - Mn SoC
14" MacBook Pro - Mn Pro/Max SoC
16" MacBook Pro - Mn Pro/Max SoC
Or maybe Apple decides to "Go Big"...
All of the above, plus:
16" MacBook - Mn SoC
18" MacBook Pro - Mn Pro/Max SoC / Dual Mn Pro/Max MCM
To me, that looks like a very logical line-up, although the low end Macbook might be closer to $850. Perhaps holiday sales will knock $100 off the price. I do hope that Apple can keep up with a yearly update cadence similar to their A-series SoC lineup. It would be odd to try to compete with Intel and AMD but not have some sort of annual incremental update. I'm not saying Macbook owners should upgrade every year, but with yearly updates to the Mac lineup, there will always be a fresh choice when buyers are ready.
I expect yearly refreshes, but with the low end a month or two before Christmas and the high end around WWDC.
From what I’ve heard, the M2 won’t be a super substantial update, while the M3 should be special since it should get a much better node. Although, the M1 and M2 based multi die SoCs may both be really interesting upgrades.
Is there any support to the idea that M2 will be based on A15 cores? I'd expect Macs to keep the same 2 year cadence, not much call to update more frequently than that, base models on year, beefed up Pros the next, then repeat. Adopting every other core design. They released the M1 the same year as the 14, they didn't wait a year. The 15 would already be a year old by the time the next gen comes out.
It would be reasonable to continue the pattern: M1 desktops in the spring, then A16, M2, A17, M2pro/max, M2 desktop, A18, M3, etc.
Well, yes, M2 was rumored to have 10 GPU cores long before A15 was released with 5 GPU cores. Seeing how M series is an upscale A-series, it’s almost a given that M2 is A15-based.
Why a two year cadence? The only reason why Mac updates slowed down in recent years is Intels inability to deliver. The current Apple Silicon release dates don’t tell us much since there are too many confounding factors: supply issues, the fact that some models are waiting for a redesign etc…
Some of the rumored timelines have M2 Airs coming out in the summer or early fall - before the next iPhone. While they could still be A16 cores, that would be unusual. Plus certain aspects of their rumored design could be doubled A15s like the 10 core GPU. Even with that, could still be A16s, but more likely A15s.
Supposedly the MBP with Pro/Max chips were supposed to be out this summer at WWDC and were delayed by unavailability of the new miniLED screens. As others have pointed out, pre-stagnation Macs were updated more frequently than every two years. Right now things may be moving more slowly because Apple is updating the chassis and the screens and we’re still in the middle of a global supply chain crisis slowing everything down. I wouldn’t place any bets on what the actual cadence of updates will be or how they’ll relate to iPhone updates based on what’s happening right now during this transitory period.
If the rumors are to be believed, the M2 and M2 Pro/Max have already been taped out, so A15 cores are expected.
As far as the release cadence goes, my intuition leans toward a yearly update. It might be weird while supply chains get sorted, but yearly seems like a sensible goal.
Sorry my bad. You're right, you didn't write 14" Macbook Pro.
I would be surprised if the 12" came back. Anyone who wants to carry around a 12" Macbook could be served just as easily by an iPad Air or iPad Pro 11". When the 12" Macbook came out, it made sense at that time but iPads have gotten much better with a very well rounded lineup.
I really don't think we'll see an 18" Macbook Pro. Even the 16" is already very bulky for the vast majority of people.
Good point...! Yeah, I would guess a Mn SoC powered iPad Pro would be the sensible way to go; and would bridge the gap between Apple tablets & laptops...
18" MacBook Pro as a throwback to the original 17" PowerBook...? ;^p
Well, A15 cores aren't really much different from A14 other than amount of L2 cache and frequency. A15 was like M1 minus 2 big cores lol. I expect M2 to be close to A16 than A15.
As a developer, more screen space is a godsend and I'd kill for as much screen space as possible. But even for me, the 16" is the absolute limit I'd be willing to carry around. It's bulkier, heavier than the previous 16" already. I can't imagine the size of an 18".
A15 actually has a massive 27% absolute performance gain over the A14 according to Anandtech's review. The 27% includes efficiency gains and raw performance increases.
That's a substantial increase on the CPU side. And then we're getting 2 more GPU cores which means the M2 will have 10 and the M2 Pro/Max will have 20/40 respectively.
I think the M2 is going to shock a lot of people in how much better it will be over the M1.
But that is due to having enhanced process/frequency increase for better power/perf and having double the amount of cache from A14. Firestorm and Avalanche cores themselves actually looked identical. I would think there has to more substantial changes needed on M2 vs M1 than A15 vs A14 to get improvements on CPU side.
