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EugW

macrumors G5
Jun 18, 2017
14,649
12,571
We should keep in mind that the only evidence for this comes from a third-party chip model number decoder. The chips themselves are custom, made to order and there is no official spec sheet. I am not saying that the decoder is wrong, just that one should carefully weight the evidence.
The decoder is right on Micron’s website.

Maybe the MBP while the MBA gets 12GB too but only 8GB usable.
Perhaps but I’m hopeful nonetheless. In 2023, my prediction was 8 GB for the OLED iPad Pro in 2024 (albeit with M3) and 12 GB for the MacBook Pro +/- Air in ~2025. I’m still hoping that could come true for the Air.
 
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crazy dave

macrumors 65816
Sep 9, 2010
1,437
1,208
The decoder is right on Micron’s website.


Perhaps but I’m hopeful nonetheless. In 2023, my prediction was 8 GB for the OLED iPad Pro in 2024 (albeit with M3) and 12 GB for the MacBook Pro +/- Air in ~2025. I’m still hoping that could come true for the Air.
The decoder is on Micron's website but when you get the Part Number from their decoder (indicating that the FBGA abbreviated part number does exist) there is no link to their own database to the resulting part and, in fact, when you search for it, there is no LPDDR listed in their own database with that part number at all.
Here's the complete LPDDR5 parts catalog according Micron's website: https://www.micron.com/products/memory/dram-components/lpddr5/part-catalog

These XT parts pointed to by the decoder aren't there. It's 3rd party websites like DigiKey that give the GB amount. Now DigiKey is selling those trays of 1020 LPDDR memory modules so one hopes that they have the correct information, but the information they give on their store page is far less than what Micron does on its own database (at least for the LPDDR parts that Micron has on there). Thus the info is probably accurate, but we don't really know. It could represent a custom part with the same FBGA number as a different part, maybe coming from the same batch. Unlikely perhaps, but possible since we don't have a full spec sheet from Micron themselves and I have no insight into how Micron operates.

There is oddly a 4GB LPDDR5 module listed in Micron's database with correct bus and speed specs I believe (https://www.micron.com/products/mem...-catalog/part-detail/mt62f512m64d2ek-026-wt-e) but it's possible it is unsuitable for on-package memory for other reasons (e.g. it's max operating temperature is 85C and I'm not sure how much the package is allowed to heat up in a fan-less design - another possibility is the package height is wrong, you get the idea).

Frankly there is a lot weird with the M4's early release on an iPad. Don't get me wrong: I too would like to see at least 12GB of base RAM for the M4 Macs but while one suspects this arrangement of seemingly 6GB memory modules will carry over as Apple like economies of scale, that could just as easily mean base 8 GB MacBook Airs like the base iPad Pros and base 16 GB MacBook Pros. Depending on what gets released at WWDC we may not know for awhile and maybe Apple will have a completely different tier system for the Macs if they aren't coming out for awhile. There's too many ifs to make any firm predictions.
 
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livmatus

macrumors regular
Feb 1, 2020
129
181
I wonder what is the situation now with display controllers compared to M3?

I'd really like to see native support for 3 displays on base M4. I'd even buy the base MBP with that.
 

Confused-User

macrumors 6502a
Oct 14, 2014
809
925
I'd really like to see native support for 3 displays on base M4.
I'd love to be wrong, but I think that that is *extremely* unlikely. They each take up a lot of area, as implemented by Apple, and there's not much percentage in it.

Really, if Apple needs to capture a significant sale where this matters, they'll just offer good enough pricing on units with M3/M4 Pros in them. There's not a lot of incentive for them to change this. If silicon were free, sure, but it's not.
 

Zhang

macrumors newbie
Oct 20, 2021
13
10
This is also why I am not fully satisfied with reviewers like Geekerwan. Their effort is much appreciated, I would still like to see a bit more methodological rigor and discussion instead of presenting numbers as facts.
You are right, certainly, we can get into a lot of details that are Apple-specific. But the problem is that most of the audience doesn't have enough background in modern CPU design, and if we get into too many details of the architecture, it needs to first discuss the ideas of processor design, and that will take too much time that's not practical to do in a single video. I find it hard to get a balance between technical details and “simple understanding”, I don't have enough time to do a very detailed analysis of the processor so what I can do is give an overview of the architecture(at least the explicit part). I do find something interesting while doing the test for example:

Any problem I had with the testing was that Apple wouldn't let us run the program with Xcode until 2 days after the release day, so I had to sideload the app, run, adjust code & compile, and repeat. Consider I was doing all this remotely so all this adds up.

I hope I have time to write them down, but I have to focus on my studies now.
 

theorist9

macrumors 68040
May 28, 2015
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N3B is inferior to N3E in terms of using it for mass production of SoCs. Apple wanted to get to 3nm on iPhone ASAP and N3B allowed them to do so a year sooner - as well as over six months before any other smartphone.

As for being for "laptops only", laptops make up over 80% of Apple's annual Mac sales. People replace laptops more often than they do desktops and far more new customers will choose a laptop over a desktop. So it is important for the MacBook Air (especially) and MacBook Pro to be updated annually whereas the iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio and Mac Pro (especially) do not. So knowing M3/N3B is a "short term" option, it gets shunted to the laptops and the most-popular desktop (iMac - and even there, iMac skipped M2).
Agree with your first para., but what's the source of the 80% figure in your 2nd para.? And is that supposed to be gross or units?

And what's the source of your assertion that Mac laptops get replaced more often than Mac desktops? It sounds plausible, and you may be right on average, but I'd say there are three different categories:
1) Those that replace when the device is no longer repairable. These will replace laptops more frequently since, on avg., they don't last as long.
2) Those that replace when the device can no longer run a supported OS. Should be about the same for laptops and desktops.
3) Those that replace when the device is obsolete in terms of performance. This could be even more frequent for desktops than for laptops.

As far as who needs more frequent updates, I'd say that there is, on avg., more of a performance focus with desktop purchases than with laptop purchases. Thus those buying a desktop would be just as desirous of getting a model with the latest gen of chip, indeed perhaps moreso, than those buying a laptop. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the value of frequent updates for desktops.
 

EugW

macrumors G5
Jun 18, 2017
14,649
12,571
Agree with your first para., but what's the source of the 80% figure in your 2nd para.? And is that supposed to be gross or units?
The source is Apple itself in 2017 for example, and it's unit sales, although the percentage of laptops may have increased even more since then.


Schiller shares some numbers he says are meaningful to Apple. The Mac user base is nearing 100 million users. As a business, it’s also nearing a $25 billion run rate and is close to being a Fortune 100 company on its own. Apple now ships computers at a ratio of 80 percent notebooks to 20 percent desktop computers, a stat they haven’t updated the public on in some time. MacBook Pro sales have been strong, with 20 percent growth in fiscal Q1 y/y.
 

Chuckeee

macrumors 68040
Aug 18, 2023
3,006
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And what's the source of your assertion that Mac laptops get replaced more often than Mac desktops? It sounds plausible, and you may be right on average, but I'd say there are three different categories:
1) Those that replace when the device is no longer repairable. These will replace laptops more frequently since, on avg., they don't last as long.
2) Those that replace when the device can no longer run a supported OS. Should be about the same for laptops and desktops.
3) Those that replace when the device is obsolete in terms of performance. This could be even more frequent for desktops than for laptops.

As far as who needs more frequent updates, I'd say that there is, on avg., more of a performance focus with desktop purchases than with laptop purchases. Thus those buying a desktop would be just as desirous of getting a model with the latest gen of chip, indeed perhaps moreso, than those buying a laptop. So I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the value of frequent updates for desktops.
Before I retired, I worked for a major aerospace company. They had thousands of computers that they were replaced on a regular schedule. Laptops every 3 to 4 years. Desktops were replaced every 5 to 6 years.

I found it to be wasteful and disruptive that they insisted on replacing perfectly functioning hardware on a regular schedule. It was claimed that they were just following the industry standard.
 
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CWallace

macrumors G5
Aug 17, 2007
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Agree with your first para., but what's the source of the 80% figure in your 2nd para.? And is that supposed to be gross or units?

Back when Apple used to post Mac unit sales and Mac unit revenues, laptops were around 80% of both and companies that track channel unit shipments continue to report similar breakdowns.

And what's the source of your assertion that Mac laptops get replaced more often than Mac desktops? It sounds plausible, and you may be right on average, but I'd say there are three different categories:
1) Those that replace when the device is no longer repairable. These will replace laptops more frequently since, on avg., they don't last as long.
2) Those that replace when the device can no longer run a supported OS. Should be about the same for laptops and desktops.
3) Those that replace when the device is obsolete in terms of performance. This could be even more frequent for desktops than for laptops.

Laptops improve on a faster cadence than desktops due to their higher sales rates (so OEMs want to update them more often) and they benefit more from CPU/GPU updates that allow them to run harder with the same cooling system and use less battery. You also have other advances including lighter weights, display improvements, and such.

An M3 Max MacBook Pro offers significant improvements across the board over an M1 MacBook Pro. An M3 iMac offers (relatively) a bit better performance than an M1 iMac. So if I owned both, I would be far more incentivized to replace the MacBook Pro because the overall value of the updates as a package is far higher than the iMac.*

My M2 Max Mac Studio is more computer than I need, but it was a better value than an M2 Pro Mac mini. I would not be in the market for an M3 Max Mac Studio if it had been offered and will almost certainly skip M4, as well, and perhaps even M5, as I just don't need more CPU or GPU speed.

On the flip side, I would at least consider replacing my M1 Pro MacBook Pro with the M4 model when it launches depending on what it brings, holistically, in terms of upgrades.

* - I used the iMac because it is the only desktop currently on M3, but even if Apple had released an M3 MAX Studio, much the same would apply.
 
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theorist9

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Laptops ... benefit more from CPU/GPU updates that allow them to run harder with the same cooling system and use less battery.
That's no longer the case with Apple Silicon, where the laptops are not as thermally constrained. Indeed, using the values published in Primate's GB6 browser, we find the opposite, where the generational %performance increase for the desktops is equal or better than in the laptops (I can only compare M2 and M1, since there are no M3 desktops, other than the M3 iMac which, in terms of performance, is more like a laptop in a desktop case):

CPU SC:
Fastest M2 laptop/Fastest M1 laptop = 2740/2381 = 1.15
Fastest M2 desktop/Fastest M1 desktop =2802/2408 = 1.16

CPU MC:
Fastest M2 laptop/Fastest M1 laptop = 14534/12260 = 1.19
Fastest M2 desktop/Fastest M1 desktop =21342/17972 = 1.19

GPU Metal:
Fastest M2 laptop/Fastest M1 laptop = 137793/113552 = 1.21
Fastest M2 desktop/Fastest M1 desktop =220553/155719 = 1.41

And remember that those who are serious desktop users have historically found a need to frequently replace the GPU to keep up with continuously increasing performance requirements. That's why Apple acknowledged the trashcan MacPro was a non-optimum design: It didn't allow pro users to keep up with regular advancements in GPUs. Now that the GPU's are non-upgradeable, there's even more of a need for the desktops to maintain a frequent upgrade cadence.

The one argument you've made I agree with is financial--the laptops have more sales, so financially it makes sense that Apple would focus on those. But I don't see any valid functional argument for why laptops need more frequent updating than desktops. Frequent updates significantly benefit both.
 
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dmccloud

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And remember that those who are serious desktop users have historically found a need to frequently replace the GPU to keep up with continuously increasing performance requirements. That's why Apple acknowledged the trashcan MacPro was a non-optimum design: It didn't allow pro users to keep up with regular advancements in GPUs. Now that the GPU's are non-upgradeable, there's even more of a need for the desktops to maintain a frequent upgrade cadence.

You really need to clarify what you mean by "serious desktop users" here. I know a lot of people who have desktop setups with multiple monitors for work who just need a GPU capable of supporting multiple monitors. They don't need to upgrade to the latest and greatest GPU at all. Outside of gaming, the vast majority of software available on any platform will rely on the CPU and system RAM far more than the GPU, which again makes the push to continually upgrade the GPU pointless.

The one argument you've made I agree with is financial--the laptops have more sales, so financially it makes sense that Apple would focus on those. But I don't see any valid functional argument for why laptops need more frequent updating than desktops. Frequent updates significantly benefit both.

The functional arguments come in part from how laptops are used in comparison to desktops. A desktop is set up, plugged into power and largely left in place after that. Laptops are hauled around in cars, on planes, buses, trains, etc. and also have rechargeable batteries, which do lose capacity over time. This increases the wear and tear on the devices as a whole, which means the average lifespan is less than that of desktops. This adds a second factor into the equation, because you not only have a larger installed base of laptops compared to desktops, but those laptops need to be replaced more often.
 

theorist9

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May 28, 2015
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You really need to clarify what you mean by "serious desktop users" here. I know a lot of people who have desktop setups with multiple monitors for work who just need a GPU capable of supporting multiple monitors. They don't need to upgrade to the latest and greatest GPU at all. Outside of gaming, the vast majority of software available on any platform will rely on the CPU and system RAM far more than the GPU, which again makes the push to continually upgrade the GPU pointless.
I strongly disagree with your assertion that "Outside of gaming ... the push to continually upgrade the GPU pointless."

High GPU performance is needed for video production work (which I believe is a large part of the target market for the Studio and MP), scientific visualization and GPU-based scientific computing, and AI and machine learning.

For more on the latter, see:
"The role of graphics processing units (GPUs) has become increasingly crucial for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). "

The functional arguments come in part from how laptops are used in comparison to desktops. A desktop is set up, plugged into power and largely left in place after that. Laptops are hauled around in cars, on planes, buses, trains, etc. and also have rechargeable batteries, which do lose capacity over time. This increases the wear and tear on the devices as a whole, which means the average lifespan is less than that of desktops. This adds a second factor into the equation, because you not only have a larger installed base of laptops compared to desktops, but those laptops need to be replaced more often.
That's not a functional argument, it's financial -- it's just illustrating why more laptops are sold (bigger base, more frequent replacement), and is already subsumed into the 80% figure referenced above.

But I've already stipulated to that. So let's set aside the financial question--no point in arguing about what I've already agreed with!—and focus on the functional, by asking this simple, big-picture question:

Suppose you are either a laptop buyer or a deskop buyer. Which one, on average, will have more of a functional need for the machine they're buying to have the lastest and greatest chip?

Yeah, a lot of desktop buyers don't need it, but neither do a lot of laptop buyers. Indeed, I would argue that, on average, desktop user are more performance-focused (or, more precisely, the percent of desktop buyers that need ultimate performance is higher than the % of laptop buyers). Thus, if anything, it's the desktop buyers who are more in need of the latest chip.

But if you don't buy that, you should at least (I think) be willing to acknowledge that it doesn't make sense to say desktop buyers are less in need of the latest chip than laptop buyers. That's the position I've been arguing against.
 
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Tagbert

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Before I retired, I worked for a major aerospace company. They had thousands of computers that they were replaced on a regular schedule. Laptops every 3 to 4 years. Desktops were replaced every 5 to 6 years.

I found it to be wasteful and disruptive that they insisted on replacing perfectly functioning hardware on a regular schedule. It was claimed that they were just following the industry standard.
The specific replacement period varies but most companies replace their computers more frequently than private individuals do. Companies buy computers as tool and expect to get a certain level of performance out of them. When they are no longer performing at that level, it is worthwhile to replace them. The aim is to keep their employees as productive as possible. To not do so might be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Traditionally newer computers are noticeably faster than older computers and older computers can become slower over time. That may not be as certain any more but its still a factor.

The actual cost of those machines is not a significant cost to those businesses compared to what they need to pay their employees.

Private individuals, who may not be making money with their computers, will usually keep them for longer as the decreased performance does not have a financial impact whereas the replacement cost does. It’s a different equation there.
 
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Confused-User

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The specific replacement period varies but most companies replace their computers more frequently than private individuals do. Companies buy computers as tool and expect to get a certain level of performance out of them. When they are no longer performing at that level, it is worthwhile to replace them. The aim is to keep their employees as productive as possible. To not do so might be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Traditionally newer computers are noticeably faster than older computers and older computers can become slower over time. That may not be as certain any more but its still a factor.
For companies with large fleets of machines (especially desktops), the larger consideration is that they lease them all, and when they come off lease after 5 years (typically, though periods vary) it costs nothing to replace them with new units - the lease amount is the same. Of course there are costs - the labor involved in replacing - but that cost is often quite minimal, as most/all uniqueness of individual workstations lives on file servers (or VM servers!). Balancing those costs is the much lower failure rate of new vs. 3-5 year old hardware.

This creates a giant and thriving market in used hardware on eBay. Any time you see a vendor selling used machines and they have a giant quantity of them, it's almost always hardware coming off lease.
 

theorist9

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May 28, 2015
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For companies with large fleets of machines (especially desktops), the larger consideration is that they lease them all, and when they come off lease after 5 years (typically, though periods vary) it costs nothing to replace them with new units - the lease amount is the same. Of course there are costs - the labor involved in replacing - but that cost is often quite minimal, as most/all uniqueness of individual workstations lives on file servers (or VM servers!). Balancing those costs is the much lower failure rate of new vs. 3-5 year old hardware.

This creates a giant and thriving market in used hardware on eBay. Any time you see a vendor selling used machines and they have a giant quantity of them, it's almost always hardware coming off lease.
I'm sure it's just as you describe at many large companies. But it doesn't work that way at my university (which is quite large).

There you have two main classes of PC buyers: The administrators (HR, accountants, fund managers, etc.) and the researchers (faculty and their research groups).

The administrators purchase them using the budgets for their departments, buying them outright and continuing to use them until they need to be replaced. The researchers acquire their computers with grant money, and also buy them outright. When the faculty no longer need them (or leave the university), they are transferred to the administrators, who can continue to get use out of them.

There may be certain groups at my university that instead lease, but I don't belive it's standard practice.
 

Tagbert

macrumors 603
Jun 22, 2011
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For companies with large fleets of machines (especially desktops), the larger consideration is that they lease them all, and when they come off lease after 5 years (typically, though periods vary) it costs nothing to replace them with new units - the lease amount is the same. Of course there are costs - the labor involved in replacing - but that cost is often quite minimal, as most/all uniqueness of individual workstations lives on file servers (or VM servers!). Balancing those costs is the much lower failure rate of new vs. 3-5 year old hardware.

This creates a giant and thriving market in used hardware on eBay. Any time you see a vendor selling used machines and they have a giant quantity of them, it's almost always hardware coming off lease.
Yes, that is part of the process. I just didn’t want to get too deep into the mechanics and how things are financed in my original answer, but thank you for expanding on that.
 

Tagbert

macrumors 603
Jun 22, 2011
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I'm sure it's just as you describe at many large companies. But it doesn't work that way at my university (which is quite large).

There you have two main classes of PC buyers: The administrators (HR, accountants, fund managers, etc.) and the researchers (faculty and their research groups).

The administrators purchase them using the budgets for their departments, buying them outright and continuing to use them until they need to be replaced. The researchers acquire their computers with grant money, and also buy them outright. When the faculty no longer need them (or leave the university), they are transferred to the administrators, who can continue to get use out of them.

There may be certain groups at my university that instead lease, but I don't belive it's standard practice.
Yes, schools, universities, and government offices have different motivations and policies. They are not as focused on productivity like a business is. In some ways their motivations are more like a private individual.
 

Chuckeee

macrumors 68040
Aug 18, 2023
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The specific replacement period varies but most companies replace their computers more frequently than private individuals do. Companies buy computers as tool and expect to get a certain level of performance out of them. When they are no longer performing at that level, it is worthwhile to replace them. The aim is to keep their employees as productive as possible. To not do so might be penny-wise and pound-foolish. Traditionally newer computers are noticeably faster than older computers and older computers can become slower over time. That may not be as certain any more but its still a factor.
That was as issue years ago but for at least for the last couple of decades, the limit on productivity for a majority of users in the aerospace industry is the speed and skill of the operators not the speed of the hardware or the software. At one time, scheduled replacement was rationalized as a preventative maintenance routine, also no longer a valid rationale with most current hardware. There is some logic in maintaining configuration control but I strongly suspect inertia and the embedded bureaucracy associated with periodic updates are now the driving force for regular scheduled hardware updates in most industries.
 

Tagbert

macrumors 603
Jun 22, 2011
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That was as issue years ago but for at least for the last couple of decades, the limit on productivity for a majority of users in the aerospace industry is the speed and skill of the operators not the speed of the hardware or the software. At one time, scheduled replacement was rationalized as a preventative maintenance routine, also no longer a valid rationale with most current hardware. There is some logic in maintaining configuration control but I strongly suspect inertia and the embedded bureaucracy associated with periodic updates are now the driving force for regular scheduled hardware updates in most industries.
I was certainly glad last year when I was upgraded from a 2019 16” MBP to an M2 14” MBP. It was a huge performance and productivity upgrade.
 

dmccloud

macrumors 68040
Sep 7, 2009
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Anchorage, AK
I'm sure it's just as you describe at many large companies. But it doesn't work that way at my university (which is quite large).

There you have two main classes of PC buyers: The administrators (HR, accountants, fund managers, etc.) and the researchers (faculty and their research groups).

The administrators purchase them using the budgets for their departments, buying them outright and continuing to use them until they need to be replaced. The researchers acquire their computers with grant money, and also buy them outright. When the faculty no longer need them (or leave the university), they are transferred to the administrators, who can continue to get use out of them.

There may be certain groups at my university that instead lease, but I don't belive it's standard practice.

There's a reason the term "companies" was specified rather than "Universities". Completely different goals, operating models, funding mechanisms, profit motives, liabilities, etc. You also conveniently left out the biggest purchases of computers in a higher education setting: the students. They don't care how the university procures computers because they're buying their own machines.

I strongly disagree with your assertion that "Outside of gaming ... the push to continually upgrade the GPU pointless."

High GPU performance is needed for video production work (which I believe is a large part of the target market for the Studio and MP), scientific visualization and GPU-based scientific computing, and AI and machine learning.
Even so, that is still a small percentage of the overall user base for computers, regardless of operating system in use. I'm not sure why you keep trying to push niche and edge cases as the overall trend, but it's not working.

That's not a functional argument, it's financial -- it's just illustrating why more laptops are sold (bigger base, more frequent replacement), and is already subsumed into the 80% figure referenced above.

But I've already stipulated to that. So let's set aside the financial question--no point in arguing about what I've already agreed with!—and focus on the functional, by asking this simple, big-picture question:

Suppose you are either a laptop buyer or a deskop buyer. Which one, on average, will have more of a functional need for the machine they're buying to have the lastest and greatest chip?
Your rhetorical question is based on several flawed premises. First, the only users who would benefit from the "LATEST and greatest" are those who would be pushing the system to its breaking point, which would be a very small percentage of the overall userbase. For most users, it doesn't matter whether they're using a 13th or 14th gen Intel system, a Ryzen 5000 or 7000 AMD system, or an M1 versus M3 Apple system. Second, as long as the machine meets the customer's needs (function), what's under the hood is irrelevant.

Talking about HOW and WHERE the computers are used is the very definition of "functional". Speaking of function, the ability to upgrade desktops when the laptop industry has increasingly moved towards Apple's model is a functional consideration with financial implications. Instead of replacing an entire desktop outright, it is possible to upgrade the RAM, GPU, CPU, etc. This has the functional effect of extending the lifespan of the machine while also providing a financial benefit to the consumer by only upgrading select components instead of replacing an entire machine.

Yeah, a lot of desktop buyers don't need it, but neither do a lot of laptop buyers. Indeed, I would argue that, on average, desktop user are more performance-focused (or, more precisely, the percent of desktop buyers that need ultimate performance is higher than the % of laptop buyers). Thus, if anything, it's the desktop buyers who are more in need of the latest chip.

The majority of both desktops and laptops sold are not performance-oriented models but those which fall more into the value category. This actually works against manufacturers because those systems carry lower margins (and therefore lower profits) than models targeted at the high performance end of the market. Additionally there are certain demographics who will always go with a desktop over a laptop not because they need a higher-end machine with the latest and greatest components, but because they have always used desktops, are comfortable with the usage model, and need/want a larger display for reasons of comfort rather than performance. As long as their machines can go online, send email, run Word, and access Google, the users are happy.
 
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Xiao_Xi

macrumors 68000
Oct 27, 2021
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There is a rumor that Game Porting Toolkit 2 will only help games that use the AVX2 instruction set on M4-based computers. Is there any truth to that?
 
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