M4 Macs Are Expected to Launch in This Order Starting Later This Year

[Mac_fan75]

Depending on what rumours you want to believe you could be ordering an M4 Ultra Mac Studio just 8 weeks from today.

Yeah I've seen it, would make sense if they introduce a Ultra at WDDC, but which one will it be, M3 or M4U..One without the AI stuff would be weird, so can only be a M4U... For the Studio's or they skip M3 Pro/Max all together or release it with M3 M/P which would be a joke.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I find it hard to believe that Covid is what prevented Apple from releasing annual updates to M-series chips when Covid didn't affect annual updates to A-series chips.

Isn't the more plausible reason for why we haven't gotten annual M-series chip updates is because people are less likely to upgrade their Macs every year vs those who upgrade iPhones every year?

Whether phone or Mac, I don’t believe annual hardware updates are about the SAME people upgrading annually. Yes, there certainly is some of that with iPhone but many are on every-few-year cycles.

Besides, that post was in response to a timetable estimate showing a pace of new M-series chip rollouts, implying not much more than a year without considering supply chain/covid “slowdowns” real or imagined.

If one believes covid did slow down production, adjusting that estimate accordingly would suggest that annual is both possible and also probable… particularly because of many common elements with A-series and those will have annual updates because there’s simply so much revenue tied to them.

Does pace seem to be accelerating since supply chain excuses faded? Yes, M2 to M3 seemed faster and this rumor has M4 coming as soon as this fall. Another rumor with some plausibility has M4 ultra launching first as soon as WWDC, skipping M3 ultra entirely. Is that driven by “cheaper” N3E process so Apple can fatten margin? Or the “unfixable” hardware hole for hackers in M1-M3? Only Apple knows. Maybe the acceleration is because they can… or Apple feels some competition from others… or the mad scramble for Mac AI requires meaningful new hardware cores, RAM, storage, power vs. PPW? TBD.

 

[Mac_fan75]

Whether phone or Mac, I don’t believe annual hardware updates are about the SAME people upgrading annually. Yes, there certainly is some of that with iPhone but many are on every-few-year cycles.

Besides, that post was in response to a timetable estimate showing a pace of new M-series chip rollouts, implying not much more than a year without considering supply chain/covid “slowdowns” real or imagined.

If one believes covid did slow down production, adjusting that estimate accordingly would suggest that annual is both possible and also probable… particularly because of many common elements with A-series and those will have annual updates because there’s simply so much revenue tied to them.

Does pace seem to be accelerating since supply chain excuses faded? Yes, M2 to M3 seemed faster and this rumor has M4 coming as soon as this fall. Another rumor with some plausibility has M4 ultra launching first as soon as WWDC, skipping M3 ultra entirely. Is that driven by “cheaper” N3E process so Apple can fatten margin? Or the “unfixable” hardware hole for hackers in M1-M3? Only Apple knows. Maybe the acceleration is because they can… or Apple feels some competition from others… or the mad scramble for Mac AI requires meaningful new hardware cores, RAM, storage, power vs. PPW? TBD.

The problem with the M2 Ultra was the release of the M3 Max a few months later which made it a no buy in most situations.

 

[aknabi]

Space Gray MacBook Pro or no sale. Actual Pro, I mean, not the 8GB MacBook Air in drag.

Just saw this over the PRWire:
"Apple's Tim Cook just announced that all Apple manufacturing/design/development has stopped and will focus on a Space Gray MacBook Pro... an actual Pro, not the current 8GB MacBook Air in drag due to the fears of shareholders that it's no sale to Jim until they are available"

Though you're right IMO that all Pro's should have 16GB RAM minimum... other than that the base MBP with plan Mx is a fine in the line up... just had to take that easy shot.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The problem with the M2 Ultra was the release of the M3 Max a few months later which made it a no buy almost in most situations.

Yes, which is why flipping the releases may actually make sense. If the next ultra is branded M4, it can both be first and have a full year or longer as King of the “power” (and profitability) hill… vs. sticking to the apparent “as is” in which ultra hits last and then new MAX soon follows with comparable power.

M2 Ultra is newest ultra… but who would buy it now, knowing M4 MAX is prob only a season away? If M3 ultra is launching at- say- WWDC, who buys it believing M4 MAX will arrive as soon as this fall? More simply: Ultras window as compelling king is too tight. Flip it to first of each new series and it is king until next ultra releases (a year+ later). Conceptually, Apple would sell more pricey & profitable ultras to those overly hung up on “latest & greatest” and/or owning “the most powerful…”. Leave things “as is” and ultras have their short window of desirability before the number on top of the chip changes… and MAX arrival throws some water on the fire to own one.

 

[CBlakeston]

Whether phone or Mac, I don’t believe annual hardware updates are about the SAME people upgrading annually. Yes, there certainly is some of that with iPhone but many are on every-few-year cycles.

Besides, that post was in response to a timetable estimate showing a pace of new M-series chip rollouts, implying not much more than a year without considering supply chain/covid “slowdowns” real or imagined.

If one believes covid did slow down production, adjusting that estimate accordingly would suggest that annual is both possible and also probable… particularly because of many common elements with A-series and those will have annual updates because there’s simply so much revenue tied to them.

Does pace seem to be accelerating since supply chain excuses faded? Yes, M2 to M3 seemed faster and this rumor has M4 coming as soon as this fall. Another rumor with some plausibility has M4 ultra launching first as soon as WWDC, skipping M3 ultra entirely. Is that driven by “cheaper” N3E process so Apple can fatten margin? Or the “unfixable” hardware hole for hackers in M1-M3? Only Apple knows. Maybe the acceleration is because they can… or Apple feels some competition from others… or the mad scramble for Mac AI requires meaningful new hardware cores, RAM, storage, power vs. PPW? TBD.

The competition angle might have some merit. With the next surface chips claiming to outperform the M3 in many benchmarks. We’ll see when they launch but Apple having the M4 out around the same time would combat that.

 

[Torty]

The problem with the M2 Ultra was the release of the M3 Max a few months later which made it a no buy almost in most situations.

Do big companies really care? I mean if new jobs are created and need to be equipped I don’t think that companies will wait for the next CPU release. Such waiting is more a private people thing and not really the target group of the ultra cpus.

 

[CBlakeston]

Do big companies really care? I mean if new jobs are created and need to be equipped I don’t think that companies will wait for the next CPU release. Such waiting is more a private people thing and not really the target group of the ultra cpus.

No, they don’t. Companies will buy once a year at most and spend money just to offset tax ect. I have an M1 Max Studio for my business m. There’s nothing the M2 Ultra or M3 Max can’t do that I’m jealous of.

I think as an enthusiast it’s easy to get hung up on that kinda stuff when you don’t see the bigger picture.

 

[Mac_fan75]

No, they don’t. Companies will buy once a year at most and spend money just to offset tax ect. I have an M1 Max Studio for my business m. There’s nothing the M2 Ultra or M3 Max can’t do that I’m jealous of.

I think as an enthusiast it’s easy to get hung up on that kinda stuff when you don’t see the bigger picture.

I don't care about the Ultra, like I said only the Max, and not buying it each year, just wan't them in a Studio shortly when introduced. Really if you like introduce a M3 Max in the Studio in June that is a complete joke, I don't want a thick heavy laptop with a fan, no need to be mobile. Just introduce those chips like AMD or Intel does, though even back then they stalled those newer chips for the Mini afraid it would kill the other sales. But yeah again it is not gonna happen, they will never introduce a M4 Max for the MacBook and MacStudio together, it would probably together sell less like they do now wishful thinking of my side.

 

[ApplesAreSweet&Sour]

I find it hard to believe that Covid is what prevented Apple from releasing annual updates to M-series chips when Covid didn't affect annual updates to A-series chips.

Isn't the more plausible reason for why we haven't gotten annual M-series chip updates is because people are less likely to upgrade their Macs every year vs those who upgrade iPhones every year?

It's not just plausible. It's the only reasonable conclusion:

I know it might not be obvious from what Apple projects outwards -But every single year is focused on the next iPhone. Everything that follows is adjusted and scheduled to fit around iPhone production and release.

Asking Apple to prioritise all iPhones, iPads and Macs equally is like asking the Coca Cola company to produce equal amounts of Fanta, Sprite and Coca Cola cans/bottles, when products like Coke Zero, Diet Coke and Coca Cola Classic by far outsell all other products the company makes.

Macs and iPads are Apple's Fanta and Sprite -Always lower priority as they don't generate anywhere near as much revenue as the best-selling product.

TLDR: Apple will only switch to updating Macs and iPads as frequently as iPhones if all three sold equally well and generated equal revenue. In other words -More frequent and predictable Mac release schedules is not happening.

 

[ric22]

I don't need the CPU power for personal use, and own an M1 Mac for that. If I was wanted a step up, for whatever reason, I'd be annoyed at paying 70% extra and still just getting a $40 tablet chip and the same pitiful RAM. The screen isn't worth 70% extra...

Which bits do you disagree with, @diandi ?

 

[ApplesAreSweet&Sour]

Depending on what rumours you want to believe you could be ordering an M4 Ultra Mac Studio just 8 weeks from today.

Apple leading the upcoming A18/M4 chip generation with anything that isn't an iPhone is unprecedented and extremely unlikely.

If any new Macs launch before iPhone event 2024 then they'll be M3. M4 in any Mac will happen post iPhone 16 (A18) launch.

Furthermore, if Apple put A18/M4 in Macs that drop before iPhones 16 then the latter would lose most of its hype as AI features would already be available on pre-iPhone 16 Macs.

Apple is iPhone first on all fronts. There will be no AI Apple products and no A18/M4 until iPhone 16 launch.

 

[ric22]

Yes, which is why flipping the releases may actually make sense. If the next ultra is branded M4, it can both be first and have a full year or longer as King of the “power” (and profitability) hill… vs. sticking to the apparent “as is” in which ultra hits last and then new MAX soon follows with comparable power.

M2 Ultra is newest ultra… but who would buy it now, knowing M4 MAX is prob only a season away? If M3 ultra is launching at- say- WWDC, who buys it believing M4 MAX will arrive as soon as this fall? More simply: Ultras window as compelling king is too tight. Flip it to first of each new series and it is king until next ultra releases (a year+ later). Conceptually, Apple would sell more pricey & profitable ultras to those overly hung up on “latest & greatest” and/or owning “the most powerful…”. Leave things “as is” and ultras have their short window of desirability before the number on top of the chip changes… and MAX arrival throws some water on the fire to own one.

They can't just name it/brand it the M4 Ultra- the performance must match. Imagine if the M4 Max came out a few months later and nearly equalled it

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The rumor is that this hypothetical (first out the door on M4) Ultra will be an entirely new chip... on N3E and uniquely designed to be the new single chip Ultra- no more linking two MAXes together.

Rumor order somewhat flips:

1. M4 Ultra first, then
2. M4 PRO & MAX months later, then
3. M4.

Why? Rumor says Ultras are the most profitable Macs sold... but they are getting the least time in the (desirability) limelight because soon after, the next M++ launches... implying the M++ MAX is only a few months out... and it generally overcomes many of ULTRAs advantages. Flip the order and ULTRA is King of Mac power for the entire year+ until the next Ultra is launched. If the profitability part of the rumor is true, Apple makes the most money from those sales for the whole year instead of only a few months... when the "as is" approach puts Ultra in that "king" slot... and everyone knows it's the last of the M<current> line.

In this flip rumor, those waiting for the cheapest M4base Macs would be buying at the end of the M4 cycle with rumors of M5 "coming soon" cranking up. Look in any transitional threads with a next generation upcoming and you'll see lots of posts of techno-angst about not wanting to buy "old technology" when "newer" is impending. This very concept somewhat impacts Ultra now because it rolls out last (so far).

Many think they see a set-in-stone pattern in only 3 iterations so far (only 2 iterations of ultra) but that's a pattern only if Apple sticks with it. Flipping the order is simply a choice... like rolling out M3 + M3 PRO + M3MAX all at the same time... and/or sticking a M3 in a MBpro case and calling it a MBpro... or sticking M-series chips in iPads and breaking a long-term pattern of using only A-series.

There's no confident pattern until we're seeing maybe M6 or so... and even then, that pattern can be broken by simple choices to disrupt it. I'd generally guess Mbase, then Pro + Mac, then Ultra persists... except if that maximum profitability bit of that rumor is true, as I'd expect modern Apple Inc to do about anything for a new buck(s).

 

[turbineseaplane]

I wonder how Macs are even selling
They all seem to be on "perma-big-sale" at all the third party resellers

Maybe Apple should make some adjustments to the lineup and the value of the offerings.

Just pumping out "another M chip" isn't going to solve the issues

 

[soyazul]

Apple is the new Microsoft. Zero innovation, faster processor chip every year. People that went crazy for the M3 while having zero need for it, will be buying the M4.

You're a troll... Apple has shaken the whole computing industry in the transition to ARM. To the point that now, 4 years later the whole computer industry is jumping to the ARM wagon.

 

[Logamaniac]

Hopefully m4 launches with tb5 and updated displays!

 

[PhoenixAnhart]

Man, I was hoping so much for an M3 Mac Mini, but I guess it'll have to be an M2 instead of waiting until winter. Sigh.

 

[Random_Matt]

I literally just had a new M3 Pro MacBook Pro delivered today. I doubt the M4 in general will be a massive leap in performance.

 

[Harry Haller]

Reacting to declining sales.

Apple Accelerates M4 Processor Releases In Response To Dropping Sales | Production Expert

Just 5 months ago, Apple released the first 3rd generation Apple silicon equipped computers, and we now learn that it is accelerating the release timetable for the M4 chips to try and turn around falling sales for Mac computers. It also may mean they won’t release M3 versions of some products. We ha

www.production-expert.com

 

[ignatius345]

It is very east to see where Apple could extend their product line:
View attachment 2368363

No idea what a "wishcast" is, but I for one would love an ultra-compact MacBook and a bigger iMac.

I've got the M1 Air and M1 iMac and while they're both performing really well, I'd like a slimmer version of the former and a bigger version of the latter.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Reacting to declining sales.

Apple Accelerates M4 Processor Releases In Response To Dropping Sales | Production Expert

Just 5 months ago, Apple released the first 3rd generation Apple silicon equipped computers, and we now learn that it is accelerating the release timetable for the M4 chips to try and turn around falling sales for Mac computers. It also may mean they won’t release M3 versions of some products. We ha

www.production-expert.com

IMO, a lack of performance isn't holding back sales

The price and value for what you get is the issue

 

[ric22]

The rumor is that this hypothetical (first out the door on M4) Ultra will be an entirely new chip... on N3E and uniquely designed to be the new single chip Ultra- no more linking two MAXes together.

Rumor order somewhat flips:

1. M4 Ultra first, then
2. M4 PRO & MAX months later, then
3. M4.

Why? Rumor says Ultras are the most profitable Macs sold... but they are getting the least time in the (desirability) limelight because soon after, the next M++ launches... implying the M++ MAX is only a few months out... and it generally overcomes many of ULTRAs advantages. Flip the order and ULTRA is King of Mac power for the entire year+ until the next Ultra is launched. If the profitability part of the rumor is true, Apple makes the most money from those sales for the whole year instead of only a few months... when the "as is" approach puts Ultra in that "king" slot... and everyone knows it's the last of the M<current> line.

In this flip rumor, those waiting for the cheapest M4base Macs would be buying at the end of the M4 cycle with rumors of M5 "coming soon" cranking up. Look in any transitional threads with a next generation upcoming and you'll see lots of posts of techno-angst about not wanting to buy "old technology" when "newer" is impending. This very concept somewhat impacts Ultra now because it rolls out last (so far).

Many think they see a set-in-stone pattern in only 3 iterations so far (only 2 iterations of ultra) but that's a pattern only if Apple sticks with it. Flipping the order is simply a choice... like rolling out M3 + M3 PRO + M3MAX all at the same time... and/or sticking a M3 in a MBpro case and calling it a MBpro... or sticking M-series chips in iPads and breaking a long-term pattern of using only A-series.

There's no confident pattern until we're seeing maybe M6 or so... and even then, that pattern can be broken by simple choices to disrupt it. I'd generally guess Mbase, then Pro + Mac, then Ultra persists... except if that maximum profitability bit of that rumor is true, as I'd expect modern Apple Inc to do about anything for a new buck(s).

I do absolutely agree with you this would be the ideal schedule. Ultra is incredibly niche, so isn't super important, but Max and Pro should definitely precede the base chip, in my opinion.

 

[ric22]

IMO, a lack of performance isn't holding back sales

The price and value for what you get is the issue

Totally. I have no incentive to upgrade from M1 for the processor, for personal use. A better screen, more ports, double the RAM and quadrupole the SSD space are things that would mean something to me.

 

[JippaLippa]

Actively starting to save for the M4 Ultra (I currently have an M1 Ultra).
I have about a year; hope I'll be able to make it!