1) CAD$129 is the number I picked because that's what Microsoft charged for a home edition Windows upgrade. Win95, 98, XP Home, etc were all that price. 7 Home might have been a little higher, maybe 139, but they had a 50% off launch promo.
I suspect Apple's price for a Panther or Tiger upgrade was similar?
I haven't exactly done a detailed business case on this, but it seemed like a reasonable starting point.
2) The people I am talking about
have money. They could go and buy a new MacBook Air tomorrow. They might also be buying iPhones regularly so they are definitely an active Apple customer front.
But please explain to me, again, how you explain to someone who uses their laptop at most an hour or two per week or month that they
should spend $1800 on a MacBook Air that they will use a few hours per month? When they do most of their computing on a smartphone or a work laptop?
It's the same thing with the old ladies with their impeccably-maintained mid-1990s car. They could afford a new car. Why would they spend $30K on a new car if their old one does what they need it to do for the 500km/year that they drive?
See, you and I are both old techies. We still use our Macs or Windows machines regularly, do a reasonable amount of our computing on a laptop/desktop (I presume you typed your posts on a Mac, not a smartphone/tablet?), etc. We're used to computers being good for X years and having to buy new ones afterwards. If anything, over the past decade and a half, X has stretched into X+2 or X+3 years, so unless Apple or Microsoft really screw us with an unexpectedly short lifecycle (which is why I'm upset about my then-4-year-old-desktop being told it's not good enough for Windows 11 especially when Intel didn't really have any measurably better processors than mine at the time of the announcement), that's fine.
As much as I've used my mid-2014 MacBook Pro as an example, Apple gave me a good price trading it in, I had a good six-year-and-one-battery-replacement run with it (which is the longest I've had any 'primary' laptop for...), off it went, I got an M1 Max MacBook Pro at launch for the highest amount I've ever spent on a computer (when in reality, a 24GB M2 15" MBA would have been a better fit for my wallet, but obviously that didn't exist in fall 2021), and life goes on. I've talked about my Sandy Bridge Windows laptops - fundamentally, the mid-2014 MacBook Pro was acquired when the warranty was ending on a Dell laptop that had had two motherboard replacements and four power adapters, so the fact that that laptop is still around and kicking two years after the MBP was traded in is a nice bonus, but if it didn't power on tomorrow, I wouldn't be heartbroken - I'd scavenge a few parts and drive it to WB's e-waste pile and life would go on.
But as I've gotten older and as smartphones have gotten more prevalent and because I went to school and work mostly in a non-IT field, what I've realized is that there are many people who used to spend hours in front of their laptops when they were in school a decade or two ago who now do most of their 'computing' on smartphones or work laptops. And occasionally, they might have something to do that requires a full-fledged computer, e.g. if you are preparing a job application, you probably don't want to do it on a smartphone, and you probably shouldn't use your existing employer's computer. But no one is going to spend $1800 every 5-7 years on a MacBook Air that they might use to write three job applications in those 5 years.
Or at least, I don't know how to convince them to. Doesn't matter that they have the money - there are just a lot more appealing things to them than a $1800 computer that they will barely use and that may once again be "too old" next time they need to seriously use it.
The issue is this: in the connected age, it is reckless to run a computer on the Internet that does not get OS vendor security patches. OS vendors are, as you've said, not particularly interested in providing long-term support, especially when both major OS vendors now only get their money when you buy new hardware. And there are many, many people with limited computing needs who are unwilling to spend the kind of money they would have happily spent when they were in school on a laptop they would use infrequently, especially when that computer performs just fine for the limited things they do with it
except for the OS security patches. You can do your job application just fine on a mid-2012 MBP with the original version of macOS... until you need a working web browser to access your Gmail account, look at the employer's web site, fill out an application, etc. It's that damn web that's the problem - you need a current-enough web browser and you need security patches, otherwise you shouldn't be web browsing. You could do the job application just fine on a G4 if it wasn't for that damn web.
It's also the fact that these machines are healthy. It's easy to convince someone that they need to replace a broken computer/car/appliance/etc. But telling them that a computer that is healthy, that does everything they need it to do, etc needs to be replaced because of security patches... is a tough sell regardless of whether they have the money. I wonder how easy it would have been to convince my retired mom to move on from her late-2013 15" retina MacBook Pro, but fate intervened, the SSD died, the official Apple repair price made no sense, so she quite happily got a 2020 Intel 13". But I think getting her away from the Intel to an Apple Silicon MBP when macOS drops Intel will be more of a challenge - as amazing as the AS Macs are, they don't do anything more that she needs. I'm trying to convince my parents that they should plan to replace their iPhone XRs this fall, and it's also a tough sell - for what they do, the XRs (with monthly AppleCare) are good enough and they don't see why they should spend $2200 on new phones.
(Please don't tell me that Apple doesn't view my parents as customers - since the launch of the iPhone, they have bought 7 iPhones, 2 MacBook Pros and not the base model ones either, a Mac mini with keyboard/mouse, one set of AirPods, and one or two el-cheapo iPads. Most/all with AppleCare. That doesn't make them Apple's best customer, sure, and they will never rush to the Apple Store on launch day to buy something that they don't really urgently need, but I think they are still a customer, and they certainly feel like they give Apple "lots" of money. Interestingly Apple has launched two products perfect for my parents in the last year... let's hope they are still around when my parents are in the market)
That's what bothers me about this - I think I could convince someone with a mid-2012 MacBook Pro to spend a few dollars every few years to have it stay current and usable, but they just won't spend $1800 on a new machine given how infrequently they use the old one. And if something changes and they suddenly need a laptop frequently,
then they will buy one (which is one of the factors that drove covid-era laptop purchases)... but otherwise, if push comes to shove, these people will get rid of their mid-2012 13" MacBooks and replace them with... nothing. In a way, they already have - the fact that those machines are getting infrequent use means that they've been replaced.
But... is it healthy in the long term if people like us, current students, etc are the only ones still owning/using traditional Mac/Windows computers for personal use? It already feels like the desktop machine (whether iMac, Windows, or anything else) that used to be ubiquitous 20 years ago has become a niche nerd/work item, and I think there's a good chance laptops will follow.