Mac sales fall by 40%

[senttoschool]

PC Pain Persists in Q1 2023 Due to Excess Inventory and Poor Demand, According to IDC Tracker

IDC examines consumer markets by devices, applications, networks, and services to provide complete solutions for succeeding in these expanding markets.

www.idc.com

What is most surprising here is that Apple's share growth is worse than other PC makers. It seemed like Apple was going to continue to gain market share in PCs with Apple Silicon effortlessly. But this didn't happen in Q1.

I'm going to speculate why:

• People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less flexible when it comes to dropping prices.
• M2 was late by ~8 months (assuming they want to release a new gen every year).
• M2 Pro/Max, consequentially, was also late by 4 months.
• M2's performance increases did not knock it out of the park. No Ray Tracing support. No drastic increase in ST. Still using a node in 5nm family.
• Ideally, we should be on M3 right now.
• M1, Pro, Max were so good that people will wait for M3 or M4 to upgrade again. I'm in this camp.
• Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers
• Still no 15" Macbook Air, which will very likely become the #1 selling Mac when it's released
• RAM and SSD are expensive upgrades and 8/256 base is finally not enough

The most frustrating thing about following Apple Silicon over the last 2 years is just how passive Apple's strategy is. Hopefully, Apple is learning a lesson here and will be more aggressive going forward. No more delays. No more holding back. Less stingy on RAM and SSD.

 

[gpat]

Good for the customer.
Maybe Apple will pull back on their crazy pricing for memory upgrades, and maybe fanboys will quit defending them because "muh inflation".
Anyway this had to happen sooner or later.

 

[Mikael H]

Apple probably saw two categories of buyers driving excessive sales during late 2021 and early 2022:
1. The people who are stuck with Intel only software, who realized ARM was coming and hurried to get the last speedy Intel machines before they became unavailable.
2. The people who had refused purchasing a Mac laptop again until they fixed the keyboard and port situation.

In both cases the holes in the markets simply got filled and we’re probably back to a regular cycle consisting of a few new adopters, and a bunch of people who, depending on their corporate computer lifecycle, will get new machines in 2-4 years.

 

[leman]

Why is this unexpected? 1Q23 sales were driven by new 14”/16” models and saw extreme growth. 1Q23 there were no new products at all, people waiting for MBP refresh. The Mac revenue of this quarter is still higher than any Intel Mac quarter ever. Don’t read too much into it. Look at performance over time.

 

[maflynn]

Its just crazy how expensive these computers, (both laptops and desktops). I don't mean just apple, though HP/Lenovo are not known for luxury pricing.

The general consumer is putting off purchases that are not needed, and dropping almost 3k for a laptop certainly can fall into that category.

 

[senttoschool]

Why is this unexpected? 1Q23 sales were driven by new 14”/16” models and saw extreme growth. 1Q23 there were no new products at all, people waiting for MBP refresh. The Mac revenue of this quarter is still higher than any Intel Mac quarter ever. Don’t read too much into it. Look at performance over time.

Unless I'm reading the dates totally wrong, the M2 Pro/Max were released in 1Q23. Meanwhile, there were no new Macs in 1Q22.

Also, as far as I know, Apple has not released revenue numbers for Q1 2023 yet so I'm not sure how you can make the conclusion that Mac revenue was still higher than any Intel Mac quarter ever.

 

[leman]

Unless I'm reading the dates totally wrong, the M2 Pro/Max were released in 1Q23. Meanwhile, there were no new Macs in 1Q22.

Also, as far as I know, Apple has not released revenue numbers for Q1 2023 yet so I'm not sure how you can make the conclusion that Mac revenue was still higher than any Intel Mac quarter ever.

Ok, maybe I misunderstood this. Apple's Q1 2023 ended December 31 2022 (yes, I know, confusing). They released the revenue statement in February. The next Q2 2023 (ending march 2023) will be released in May.

So this 40% decline figures, is that about Apple's first quarter or is it about calendar first quarter? Because the funny thing is, when I look at Apples last financial statement, the Mac revenue was down exactly 40%. So we either see 40% drops for two quarters straight, or the IDC Tracker is reporting things per end of 2022.

 

[Retskrad]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

 

[unrigestered]

As far as i know, Apple never promised annual releases for their M series
i think they even mentioned that the M2 Pro's are going to be released no earlier than 1 1/2 after the M1 Pro.
also, the M1s were/are already incredibly performant, do you seriously expect that they can by far surpass it every single year?
other than that: what would you expect annual releases to make better anyway?
they will have less time, so the performance gains will be "even" smaller, plus you might **** something up if you want to rush things

my personal take away from this decline is that many jumped ship and / or upgraded when the incredible M1 (Pros) came out, because of the insane benefits in awesome battery life, low noise floor and great performance they had to offer.
The M2s are, as expected, just incremental updates, mainly for the people who didn't get an M1 and need to upgrade now.
you're alse also not getting a new uber computer just by going from an Intel 12900 to a 13900 either.
they have also become quite substantially more expensive in most parts of the world, making them even less of a no brainer.

all in all, i don't think Apple is losing much of it's customer base, as long as the x86 competition are not able to catch up in the laptop market.
people most likely will simply be waiting for an M3, or maybe even later.
i know that from my part, that i'm not really inclined to upgrade before 2028, maybe even 2030.
but i've always kept my systems for a very long time anyway, even when the jumps in performance gains were much greater every couple of years, compared to now.

 

[rappr]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

Swift Playgrounds on iPad lets you do this.

 

[aries81]

I doubt prices are going to drop.

 

[senttoschool]

Ok, maybe I misunderstood this. Apple's Q1 2023 ended December 31 2022 (yes, I know, confusing). They released the revenue statement in February. The next Q2 2023 (ending march 2023) will be released in May.

So this 40% decline figures, is that about Apple's first quarter or is it about calendar first quarter? Because the funny thing is, when I look at Apples last financial statement, the Mac revenue was down exactly 40%. So we either see 40% drops for two quarters straight, or the IDC Tracker is reporting things per end of 2022.

Companies can have different months in their quarters. However, I'm 99.99% sure that this IDC report standardizes Q1 as Jan to the end of March.

Otherwise, the data would make no sense whatsoever. What would be the point of comparing Apple's Fall 2022 numbers to Dell's Spring 2023 numbers?

 

[gpat]

Let's be real, sales will rise again when we get a proper chip redesign (with the M3), and then Apple will be forced to get into form factors that actually belong in this decade, yeah I'm talking about foldables and convertibles.

 

[Nikojas]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

Indeed. Bought my first laptop in 1997 and had one ever since until my ipad Pro in 2020. At that point I intended to get a new Macbook in 2022 but I didn’t. The ipad is enough for me and I’m sure I’m not alone.

 

[iPadified]

What goes up must come down. I think the SoC is not important for normal people (not MR people) but "help, I am stuck at home with a slow computer" is. M1 and lockdowns was a "happy" coincidence. We likely see a stronger upgrade cycle in a few years when M1 seems too slow for normal work/home use. The pro, max and ultra user may upgrade earlier if Apple keeps the +20% YoY improvements.

 

[Xiao_Xi]

Apple seems to be paying the price for the previous two incredible quarters.

PC Shipments Show Continued Strength in Q1 2021 Despite Component Shortages and Logistics Issues, According to IDC

Global shipments of traditional PCs, including desktops, notebooks, and workstations, grew 55.2% year over year during the first quarter of 2021 (1Q21), according to preliminary results from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. While PCs...

www.techpowerup.com

PC Shipments Begin to Slow Following Two Years of Strong Growth, According to IDC

IDC examines consumer markets by devices, applications, networks, and services to provide complete solutions for succeeding in these expanding markets.

www.idc.com

PC Pain Persists in Q1 2023 Due to Excess Inventory and Poor Demand, According to IDC Tracker

IDC examines consumer markets by devices, applications, networks, and services to provide complete solutions for succeeding in these expanding markets.

www.idc.com

 

[senttoschool]

What goes up must come down. I think the SoC is not important for normal people (not MR people) but "help, I am stuck at home with a slow computer" is. M1 and lockdowns was a "happy" coincidence. We likely see a stronger upgrade cycle in a few years when M1 seems too slow for normal work/home use. The pro, max and ultra user may upgrade earlier if Apple keeps the +20% YoY improvements.

This doesn't explain why Apple fell more than other PC makers. Covid didn't just happen for Mac buyers.

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

Everything is relative.

Just because the sales of a product-line have fallen does not mean there is an issue with the product, there are many external factors.

I think the biggest one is that, in todays climate, the public is starting to become more conscious of their finances. And this is a good thing - many people have tried to live a lifestyle that’s too good for too long, and only now are they realising that not only is it unsustainable but wasteful.

This is especially true for iPhones, where realistically there is no need to buy the latest the model unless you need the convenience of the upgrades. And they are just that, conveniences not necessities.

Also, Apple raised prices in many countries which only compounds this issue. Very hard to justify an iMac right now…

 

[WiiDSmoker]

Their storage and memory is so god damn expensive. There’s no reason why they need to stupid high.

They’re double dipping with the iCloud. Base products coming with barely any memory and storage so that customers are forced into higher tiered iCloud.

It’s absurd.

Remember everyone saying with the M series Apple would be able to drop the price? We are seeing them make more margins than ever with zero going back to the customers.

 

[iPadified]

This doesn't explain why Apple fell more than other PC makers. Covid didn't just happen for Mac buyers.

The M1 did not happen for the PC makers. The M1 was the first and therefore interesting. After this people loose interest in SoC versions.

 

[okkibs]

Apple Silicon isn't too relevant for the business world where you'll find either HP, Dell or Lenovo computers. Those sales are driven by businesses with fixed lifecycles. Units moved isn't the best indicator either, HP Probooks are sold dirt cheap to businesses in masses (way lower than what you can find for retail pricing) but they start falling apart the moment you unbox them and are straight up trash.

The point here being, there is nothing wrong or unexpected with these numbers, that's just what happens when you mix things together that don't go together, like business sales and end user sales.

Products based on MacOS have always been niche products and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Unless Apple innovates so radically that businesses throw out decades of Microsoft dependence, I don't see how this can change.

 

[leman]

Companies can have different months in their quarters. However, I'm 99.99% sure that this IDC report standardizes Q1 as Jan to the end of March.

Otherwise, the data would make no sense whatsoever. What would be the point of comparing Apple's Fall 2022 numbers to Dell's Spring 2023 numbers?

View attachment 2186806

Makes sense, I am just very confused that the reported 40% decline coincides exactly with the decline in Mac revenue published by Apple for the last three months for 2022. That's either some crazy coincidence or some mistake.

 

[sublunar]

Everything is relative.

Just because the sales of a product-line have fallen does not mean there is an issue with the product, there are many external factors.

I think the biggest one is that, in todays climate, the public is starting to become more conscious of their finances. And this is a good thing - many people have tried to live a lifestyle that’s too good for too long, and only now are they realising that not only is it unsustainable but wasteful.

This is especially true for iPhones, where realistically there is no need to buy the latest the model unless you need the convenience of the upgrades. And they are just that, conveniences not necessities.

Also, Apple raised prices in many countries which only compounds this issue. Very hard to justify an iMac right now…

Definitely agree with the economic downturn as a factor. Price rises around the world are due to inflationary and currency exchange which doesn’t help. And you also have energy price crisis too.

People can skip an iPhone upgrade year if they feel the pinch but the Mac upgrade slowdown is also potentially due to the arm super upgrade cycle from 2020 and 2021.

Anyone who hasn’t already upgraded might now consider m2 an incremental upgrade, potentially at a higher price if in Europe. I doubt there’s a significant number of people who believe M3 is a game changing upgrade (due to reading around the expected process shrink etc) even if they thought it was coming in a timeframe suitable for them.

I’d like to think that Apple may be looking to make more of any m3 process shrink to improve energy efficiency rather than go all out for performance increments.

Not really surprising if they have to offer a performance increment too though.

 

[pshufd]

Its just crazy how expensive these computers, (both laptops and desktops). I don't mean just apple, though HP/Lenovo are not known for luxury pricing.

The general consumer is putting off purchases that are not needed, and dropping almost 3k for a laptop certainly can fall into that category.

The people that can justify dropping $3k on a laptop use it for work or to generate revenue and I think that those folks have switched by now. There was massive pent-up demand for the 2021 MacBook Pro from those using systems from 2013 to 2020. So comps are just going to be tough. Apple is going to have to take share from Windows.

 

[Spaceboi Scaphandre]

Everything is relative.

Just because the sales of a product-line have fallen does not mean there is an issue with the product, there are many external factors.

I think the biggest one is that, in todays climate, the public is starting to become more conscious of their finances. And this is a good thing - many people have tried to live a lifestyle that’s too good for too long, and only now are they realising that not only is it unsustainable but wasteful.

The thing this chart shows is the entire industry had a drop in laptop sales. When the Mac was #1 for 8 quarters straight it's gonna get hit the hardest

This is especially true for iPhones, where realistically there is no need to buy the latest the model unless you need the convenience of the upgrades. And they are just that, conveniences not necessities.

Exactly this. There's off times where iPhone sales aren't high since there's not a lot of reasons to get the latest models everytime. The same will happen to the Mac now too since it's actually getting constant refreshes now.

Once M3 shows up that number will go up again since everyone who's on M1 will be more inclined to upgrade once they see a massive leap in performance.

Also, Apple raised prices in many countries which only compounds this issue. Very hard to justify an iMac right now…

I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future the iMac gets discontinued. Even when the M1 iMac dropped sales for it haven't been very high compared to the Mac Mini. It's hard to justify getting an all in one anymore when most people would rather just use their own displays nowadays.