Mac sales fall by 40%

[Unregistered 4U]

Quarterly numbers are interesting, but in the long run irrelevant (and heavily influenced by a number of volatile factors). The inherent Apple Silicon value proposition is just extremely solid, most of all in the laptop space. Fast + thin/light + long battery life, all at the same time, is a combination you just cannot get anywhere else. As long as that is the case, and solid regular, incremental updates are coming, the only way for AS is up.

That being said, Apple will probably never be #1 in the PC space wrt to unit sales, simply because they‘re not willing to hit the low to very-low prive points that would be necessary to have a shot at this. From a profit point of view, it‘s absolutely the right strategy, too.

That’s even MORE true now since, as far as the Mac is concerned, Apple’s focused on folks that want/need macOS only. Apple’s fortunes are tied to how well they perform across the entire spectrum of goods and services they provide and the Mac hasn’t been a significant part of that equation for awhile.

Regarding unit sales, Apple has been in the top 5 and, in many years, have beat the unit sales of the entire line of laptops made by every other individual manufacturer… with the iPad.

 

[IamTimCook]

I find this data hard to believe. Apple financial statement for the last three months of 2022 records a 40% fall in Mac revenue. What kind of sales result in 40% revenue drop but only 2% shipment drops?

Not sure why you're saying that Apple was down, as their actual financial report has a record 4th quarter at the end of 2022.

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022.

www.apple.com

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/FY22_Q4_Consolidated_Financial_Statements.pdf

"CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA OCTOBER 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022. The Company posted a September quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.29, up 4 percent year over year. Annual revenue was $394.3 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and annual earnings per diluted share were $6.11, up 9 percent year over year.

 

[Unregistered 4U]

I find this data hard to believe. Apple financial statement for the last three months of 2022 records a 40% fall in Mac revenue. What kind of sales result in 40% revenue drop but only 2% shipment drops?

These aren’t Apple’s numbers, so good to question them. Since they’ve lost the ability to infer Apple sales indirectly via Intel chip deliveries, the leading analysts have not been in agreement on Apple’s unit sales, sometimes by a WIDE margin.

 

[TechnoMonk]

Not sure why you're saying that Apple was down, as their actual financial report has a record 4th quarter at the end of 2022.

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022.

www.apple.com

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/FY22_Q4_Consolidated_Financial_Statements.pdf

"CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA OCTOBER 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022. The Company posted a September quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.29, up 4 percent year over year. Annual revenue was $394.3 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and annual earnings per diluted share were $6.11, up 9 percent year over year."

Apple 4th Qtr ended Oct 2022, which is Q3 in IDC report. And IDC 2022 4th Quarter is Apple Q1 2023.
IDC reported Oct-dec 2022 apple shipments down 2%, Apple reported 40% drop in the revenue same period. It doesn’t add up.

 

[ApplesAreSweet&Sour]

Their storage and memory is so god damn expensive. There’s no reason why they need to stupid high.

They’re double dipping with the iCloud. Base products coming with barely any memory and storage so that customers are forced into higher tiered iCloud.

It’s absurd.

Remember everyone saying with the M series Apple would be able to drop the price? We are seeing them make more margins than ever with zero going back to the customers.

I actually thought most M1 machines were pretty good value.

Well, with the exception that most of them were new Macs in old designs.

What made them even better value is that you could go out and get one from any retailer at a much lower price than from Apple, even on sale quite often.

With M2, the base configurations are a no-go so you have to order directly from Apple.

All in all, it’s just a major price hike for very little added performance.

The value proposition is just not as obvious as M1 was.

 

[MysticCow]

I'm going to speculate why:

• People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less flexible when it comes to dropping prices.
• M2 was late by ~8 months (assuming they want to release a new gen every year).
• M2 Pro/Max, consequentially, was also late by 4 months.
• M2's performance increases did not knock it out of the park. No Ray Tracing support. No drastic increase in ST. Still using a node in 5nm family.
• Ideally, we should be on M3 right now.
• M1, Pro, Max were so good that people will wait for M3 or M4 to upgrade again. I'm in this camp.
• Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers
• Still no 15" Macbook Air, which will very likely become the #1 selling Mac when it's released
• RAM and SSD are expensive upgrades

Just in order:

1. Yep. Cheap or nothing. The economy has been nuked hardcore by the money elves who seriously thought nothing bad would happen by giving every single person $4000.

2-6. NOPE! I think the Monday Morning Quarterbacks will say this is directly due to no more Intel and no more compatibility with Intel (i.e. dual boot, etc).

7. See 2-6's response. People WANT the cheapest possible solution to their needs. Why am I spending $900+ USD for a Mac now when I can get something that can do yeoman's work for way more than half the price?

8. It likely would be the best-selling Mac of its time. With a 40% drop in sales, Apple should be looking at the Mac division and say, "We need something like the Bondi Blue iMac G3 and we need it now." Apple simply needs saved from itself again and Steve Jobs is dead.

9. They are expensive upgrades and you can't upgrade past the point of sale. So you're having to invest in an ADDITIONAL $400+ USD to make sure the device isn't deprecated the moment you have it in your hands. This makes the entry point for an M1 Air (these are still being sold) to at least $1399 USD. For an M2 mini, the price spikes to $999 US. And again, most consumers are satisfied with a machine that can do yeoman's work.

 

[leman]

Not sure why you're saying that Apple was down, as their actual financial report has a record 4th quarter at the end of 2022.

View attachment 2186950

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022.

www.apple.com

https://www.apple.com/newsroom/pdfs/FY22_Q4_Consolidated_Financial_Statements.pdf

"CUPERTINO, CALIFORNIA OCTOBER 27, 2022 Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022. The Company posted a September quarter record revenue of $90.1 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and quarterly earnings per diluted share of $1.29, up 4 percent year over year. Annual revenue was $394.3 billion, up 8 percent year over year, and annual earnings per diluted share were $6.11, up 9 percent year over year.

@TechnoMonk already replied to this, but I will repeat it, since I think it's important. Apples fiscal quarters are shifted by three months relative to calendar quarters. Apple's Q4 ends in September and Apple's Q1 ends in December of the previous year.

So what we have is IDC estimating Apple sales to drop 2% percent in a quarter where Apple reports 40% loss of revenue, and then IDC estimates Apple sales to drop 40% in the next quarter. This just doesn't add up to me.

 

[Danfango]

I think people just don't have buying computers as a priority. And if they do they go for cheaper ones.

Food and energy prices are rising which eats into luxury budgets. Corporates are downsizing and not buying hardware. Not a good environment to make money on luxury items.

 

[IamTimCook]

Apple 4th Qtr ended Oct 2022, which is Q3 in IDC report. And IDC 2022 4th Quarter is Apple Q1 2023.
IDC reported Oct-dec 2022 apple shipments down 2%, Apple reported 40% drop in the revenue same period. It doesn’t add up.

I'm not disagreeing that they were down during the first quarter of 2023. I was noting that this isn't an M2 issues as the M2 showed to help set a fourth quarter record for 2022.

And by apples graph, Macs are only down 30% for the 1st quarter of 2023... but everything is also down minus services and iPads.

Apple reports first quarter results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2023 first quarter ended December 31, 2022.

www.apple.com

 

[Ethosik]

I am quite happy with my Studio and I could see using it for the next five years. It has far more CPU and GPU capacity than I need - I got it so that I could run 5 external monitors. And I think that Apple has been selling a lot of Studios. The M2 mini is enough for a lot of people too. I don't really see competition for these Macs right now so I think that Apple can coast for a while on their Macs.

Studio has such an annoying whine fan it’s driving me crazy. I’m not a fan of the studio.

 

[pshufd]

Studio has such an annoying whine fan it’s driving me crazy. I’m not a fan of the studio.

Some of them had that problem. I'd guess that the majority don't. There is a very long thread about it in the Studio forum and I held off buying one for about five months. I have an M1 mini but it just didn't have enough RAM nor display support and I took the plunge on the Studio. I would have returned if it it had the whine issue. Mine is silent from 1.5-2 feet away.

 

[Bug-Creator]

Apple was least affected during the supply chain issue, hence the Mac market is saturated while most PC makers are still working through left over demand from 2020-22.

All overlayed with a massive drop in overall consumer confidence.

 

[pshufd]

Apple was least affected during the supply chain issue, hence the Mac market is saturated while most PC makers are still working through left over demand from 2020-22.

All overlayed with a massive drop in overall consumer confidence.

Apple was still affected quite a bit. I've heard of a lot of QC issues with MacBook Pros from last summer and fall and am glad that Apple has diversified away from China for some of their products.

I'm not exactly sure where consumer confidence is but people are sure buying sporting goods.

 

[v0lume4]

I recently jumped to Windows by choice because I wanted the OS as well as greater compatibility with the programs I want to run. Additionally, x86 was very important to me for BootCamp purposes and now that is gone from Macs completely.

Having said that, I will admit that I flirted with the idea of the M2 MacBook Air in my head. Then when I started speccing one out, I saw the upgrade prices and closed the tab. Apple’s not getting a dime from me at those prices. I upgraded my new laptop with a 1TB drive for $115.

In regard to the absurd pricing, I wonder how many other consumers are similar to me. The pricing is a little out of hand.

 

[IamTimCook]

@TechnoMonk already replied to this, but I will repeat it, since I think it's important. Apples fiscal quarters are shifted by three months relative to calendar quarters. Apple's Q4 ends in September and Apple's Q1 ends in December of the previous year.

So what we have is IDC estimating Apple sales to drop 2% percent in a quarter where Apple reports 40% loss of revenue, and then IDC estimates Apple sales to drop 40% in the next quarter. This just doesn't add up to me.

Yes the fourth quarter ends at the end of September. Just like in Apples financial statement shows and which has them setting a record fourth quarter and being positive for Macs.

Read the report.

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022.

www.apple.com

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers

The issue with that market segment is the potential to cannibalise sales, which is more of a threat to Apple than other manufacturers.

With the ways that performance and efficiency have dramatically improved in recent years, professionals are in many cases already using entry-level hardware to accommodate some of the tasks that once needed a 'Pro' device. Even a MacBook Air can handle basic 4K video editing and audio production from a DAW, so it stands to reason that differentiating more affordable products from others has become more difficult. Case in point: iPad and iPad Pro.

If Apple released an 'SE' laptop as you put it, which is essentially just a very cheap laptop, they would have to make many compromises in order to maintain the value of the MacBook Air, and still present a clear proposition or story to the buyer. How does a company like Apple market a barebones device that resembles a Mac only by it's OS?

The customer segment in question really has three needs; internet connectivity, syncing with their cloud service, and a physical keyboard. Simply put, they want what used to be a netbook.

In this regard the market has barely moved on since the 'cheap' Wintel ultra-portable days, it's just more efficient hardware and different OSs. They don't want macOS or well-designed hardware, they want Chromebooks (for better or worse). The school that I used to work for purchased over 400 Dell Chromebooks with tiny sub-12" screens. Granted, ChromeOS is poor, but the hardware withstood a lot of battering 5 days a week.

Apple's solution here is the iPad + keyboard, and honestly I think it's a decent compromise if you really need macOS and can get the keyboard cheap enough.

As pointed out, the entire industry has had a downturn and that's probably a good thing. Computers in any form are expensive devices that have almost become disposable at the bottom end of the market, and that's quite sad as it's bad not only for the environment but for the way people value products. Like iPhones, people shouldn't need to feel as though they 'have' to have the latest updates; rather, they could do with learning to make good choices and making compromises.

 

[leman]

Yes the fourth quarter ends at the end of September. Just like in Apples financial statement shows and which has them setting a record fourth quarter and being positive for Macs.

Read the report.

Apple Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Apple today announced financial results for its fiscal 2022 fourth quarter ended September 24, 2022.

www.apple.com

I was originally commenting on your post #45. The fourth (calendar) quarter mentioned in that report is what Apple calls Q1 of 2023. Where Apple recorded a substantial 40% drop in Mac revenue over the same quarter of previous year. What I am saying that I find it strange that IDC only reports 2% loss for the same quarter. This makes me suspicious of the quality of their data.

 

[Ethosik]

Some of them had that problem. I'd guess that the majority don't. There is a very long thread about it in the Studio forum and I held off buying one for about five months. I have an M1 mini but it just didn't have enough RAM nor display support and I took the plunge on the Studio. I would have returned if it it had the whine issue. Mine is silent from 1.5-2 feet away.

I did return mine. 5 times. I eventually just gave up because I didn’t buy a Mac to return it every week. I bought it to do my job. People are still reporting new models still have this issue. So there was no guarantee that if I kept doing it I could get a “good” one.

 

[ThisBougieLife]

There's less reason than ever to upgrade regularly with Apple Silicon. Sales are going to be lower in a quarter without a redesign or a new product category or a significant internal upgrade.

 

[Asbow]

Nah, I disagree. I write code on one monitor on my Mac, and I have a second monitor playing a movie or TV show. Can't do that on an iPad. Also, do you know how difficult it is to write code on an iPad? Copy/paste isn't as easy as on an iPad. Moving the cursor to where you need it is also difficult on an iPad. The screen is smaller. It's just not a great device to write code on. I've tried. I can't do it. How do I create the assets for my apps if I have to use scaled-down apps on the iPad?

IMO, the reasons for the decline are: 1. the 'pandemic bump' is over; 2: their prices are stratospheric these days.

Their cheapest laptop is £999 (8c/7c, 8GB RAM, 256GB SSD).

The new MacBook Pro M2 Pro 14-inch is £2,149 and has 16GB RAM. If you want 32GB it's another £400. That's two and a half grand.

The M2 Max MacBook Pro 14-inch starts at £3,349. Want 96GB of RAM? You need to spend an extra £1,000 (£200 for the CPU upgrade to 38-core GPU, and £800 for the extra 64GB of RAM). It's an extra £400 for 1TB of extra SSD (taking you to 2TB). 4TB is £1,000 (that's £333.33 per extra TB). 8TB is £2,200 (or £314.29 per extra TB). These prices are so high, and well out of the grasp of most people. Yes, I get that Apple caters for the higher end, but they were affordable before, and they simply aren't now.

I read people saying that since Apple are making Apple Silicon they don't have to pay the extra profit margin to Intel, so the chips should be cheaper. This is clearly not the case. Apple have decided that each change in RAM or SSD is an excuse to price them hugely differently.

Also, if I'm going to spend £5,349 on an M2 Max MBP14 with 96GB RAM and 4TB SSD (the model I've been looking at), why do I have to then pay another £249 for three years of AppleCare? The laptop should have that added on for free. Or don't Apple think their expensive tech will last three years? (Yes, I get that they're not in the charity business.)

Whole point of the mini was an affordable mac. Just a shame the one you want is the same price as a Studio.

 

[dotnet]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people.

I tend to agree, yet this thread dredges up 1001 niche excuses why this cannot possibly be the case.

 

[IamTimCook]

I was originally commenting on your post #45. The fourth (calendar) quarter mentioned in that report is what Apple calls Q1 of 2023. Where Apple recorded a substantial 40% drop in Mac revenue over the same quarter of previous year. What I am saying that I find it strange that IDC only reports 2% loss for the same quarter. This makes me suspicious of the quality of their data.

I see what you're saying. IDC's report is reporting a generic 4th quarter date i.e. Dec 31st 22. and not aligning with Apple's actual fiscal quarters. Maybe? IDC didn't actually specify whose quarter they were judging. But that makes since as it includes other manufactures.

But the results could be at -2% in the IDC report because Apple's actual forth quarter of 2022 was up on Macs by 30% but down 30% in their 1st quarter of 2023. So the estimate seems pretty close if IDC is splitting those quarters.

 

[Lounge vibes 05]

With a 40% drop in sales, Apple should be looking at the Mac division and say, "We need something like the Bondi Blue iMac G3 and we need it now." Apple simply needs saved from itself again and Steve Jobs is dead.

really? The $3 trillion company needs saving?
Also Apple already has a baseline computer made for the majority of consumers, it’s called the iPad. It starts at $250 at most retailers.
And for 90% of people who just want a basic computer for little money, it works just fine.
now I know the iPad has its dedicated out of touch hater fan group who say the iPad could *never* replace a computer, but in reality that’s just not the case.
Most people use their computers just to browse the web, check their email, pay bills and watch YouTube, an iPad is perfect for that.
And if someone absolutely needs a Mac, the new Mac mini starts at 600 bucks, and you can get the M1 Aire for 800 bucks.
But visiting these forums, you’d think everyone needs 96 GB of RAM and 8 TB of storage when really the baseline is fine for most.

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

I wouldn't be surprised if in the near future the iMac gets discontinued.

I'm not so sure. Granted, removing the 27" option has left a gap for those office/small business users who wanted a good value and clean graphic design computer (though it can be argued Mac mini/Studio plus a display plugs this gap), but the 24" size is actually quite a nice middle ground between the 21" and 27".

It's being sold in a mobile-centric world and that no doubt goes against it, but if anything the new design opens up new opportunities. Apple's marketing for this product explores a lot of scenarios where, previously, the iMac may have been a bit more alien, but the common theme is that the playfulness and simplicity of the new design makes the iMac more attractive as an appliance than the stark black/aluminium prior.

Even when the M1 iMac dropped sales for it haven't been very high compared to the Mac Mini.

What is the source for those sales numbers?

It's hard to justify getting an all in one anymore when most people would rather just use their own displays nowadays.

This depends on the market segment in question. Professionals? Absolutely. But the iMac's screen really is a beautiful one when you see it in person, and combined with the camera, mic, speakers and fantastic performance, it would make the ideal office computer in a Mac environment.

 

[Gudi]

If I recall correctly, Apple enjoys a healthy larger than >90% market share on notebooks with a price tag of over $1000+. Which means there is simply no room for growth. People who buy cheap $500 Wintel laptops with two generations old i5 will not suddenly switch to MacBook Pros only because the M2 Max is so great. We need to compare Apples with Apples. Generally speaking inflation times are never good for expensive products and also Personal Computers are no longer a growth market.