Mac sales fall by 40%

[progx]

Looks like ALL PC manufacturer sales went down hard.

• People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less flexible when it comes to dropping prices.

HP and the other manufacturers are down by a lot too. I think the market is beginning to return to its pre-pandemic levels. People who would've bought cheap laptops or desktops are opting to stay with their mobile devices, namely their smartphones. Most consumers are frugal on technology, so those users could've opted to stay with their older machines and use their smart device as a daily driver. This isn't new, the crash happened to Apple later than the rest of them.

• M2 was late by ~8 months (assuming they want to release a new gen every year).
• M2 Pro/Max, consequentially, was also late by 4 months.
• M2's performance increases did not knock it out of the park. No Ray Tracing support. No drastic increase in ST. Still using a node in 5nm family.
• Ideally, we should be on M3 right now.
• M1, Pro, Max were so good that people will wait for M3 or M4 to upgrade again. I'm in this camp.
• Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers
• Still no 15" Macbook Air, which will very likely become the #1 selling Mac when it's released
• RAM and SSD are expensive upgrades

The most frustrating thing about following Apple Silicon over the last 2 years is just how passive Apple's strategy is. Hopefully, Apple is learning a lesson here and will be more aggressive going forward. No more delays. No more holding back. Less stingy on RAM and SSD.

Again, these are less factors in these combined points. Jobs said during the iPad 2 unveil that the PC was dead, the corpse might have been revived in 2020 and 2021, but it's falling back asleep. Most average consumers will likely keep their PCs beyond the 5-7 mark rather than the old 3-5 year.

PC sales are back to their normal levels before the pandemic. I don't see those 2020/2021 numbers ever coming back for either manufacturer. Apple will see a boost from the M3/M4 period because the last of us Intel users should be ready to jump by then.

 

[progx]

Everything is relative.

Just because the sales of a product-line have fallen does not mean there is an issue with the product, there are many external factors.

I think the biggest one is that, in todays climate, the public is starting to become more conscious of their finances. And this is a good thing - many people have tried to live a lifestyle that’s too good for too long, and only now are they realising that not only is it unsustainable but wasteful.

This is especially true for iPhones, where realistically there is no need to buy the latest the model unless you need the convenience of the upgrades. And they are just that, conveniences not necessities.

Also, Apple raised prices in many countries which only compounds this issue. Very hard to justify an iMac right now…

Not just Macs. All the manufacturers took a huge dip before Apple dropped. Most consumers are opting to consolidate back to their mobile devices, whether it's smartphones or tablets, they are going to coast on whichever PC they have. Even a $200-300 Pentium or Athlon based Windows machine isn't going to entice people at this point.

 

[progx]

The people that can justify dropping $3k on a laptop use it for work or to generate revenue and I think that those folks have switched by now. There was massive pent-up demand for the 2021 MacBook Pro from those using systems from 2013 to 2020. So comps are just going to be tough. Apple is going to have to take share from Windows.

I think there's still a healthy amount of Intel-based Mac users waiting on the M3/M4. Latter generation consumers, prosumers and Pros are probably waiting for those generation of SOCs before jumping if they bought Intel Macs in 2019, 2020 or 2021.

 

[maflynn]

The people that can justify dropping $3k on a laptop use it for work or to generate revenue and I think that those folks have switched by now.

I think many, many people are dropping money. I can see buying my daughter a MBP when the time approaches for her to head off to college. I think the majority of buyers of Macs are consumers - just my guess, I have no numbers to back that up.

I was tempted for the 16" Razer but the cost is closer to 4k and there's no way I'm willing to pay that much money.

 

[azentropy]

I think it is a combination that the M1 Macs were a super cycle and that that the M2 Macs were not much of an upgrade over those.

 

[the future]

Quarterly numbers are interesting, but in the long run irrelevant (and heavily influenced by a number of volatile factors). The inherent Apple Silicon value proposition is just extremely solid, most of all in the laptop space. Fast + thin/light + long battery life, all at the same time, is a combination you just cannot get anywhere else. As long as that is the case, and solid regular, incremental updates are coming, the only way for AS is up.

That being said, Apple will probably never be #1 in the PC space wrt to unit sales, simply because they‘re not willing to hit the low to very-low price points that would be necessary to have a shot at this. From a profit point of view, it‘s absolutely the right strategy, too.

 

[Jarutais]

M1 was groundbreaking when compared to Intel processors, but when you compare M2 to M1, the improvements were so marginal that they are not compelling to M1 users. M2 buyers are people who were still stuck to Intel.

 

[Realityck]

This doesn't explain why Apple fell more than other PC makers. Covid didn't just happen for Mac buyers.

Wondering why we are revisiting the period of interrupted manufacturing that impacted China towards the very end of their lockdown that ended Dec so poorly that in Nov 2022 Apple warned investors how whole city lockdowns would interfere with shipments? For sure January 2023 would be a struggle to recover. BTW let’s not forget the updated M2/pro Mac minis announced same time as M2 pro/max MBPs also January. May 4th when Q1 23 earnings are announced should be informative. Yes we are still waiting for other hardware announcements, it been dry since January.

 

[pshufd]

I think many, many people are dropping money. I can see buying my daughter a MBP when the time approaches for her to head off to college. I think the majority of buyers of Macs are consumers - just my guess, I have no numbers to back that up.

I was tempted for the 16" Razer but the cost is closer to 4k and there's no way I'm willing to pay that much money.

Would you buy her a $2,000 Mac or a $3,000 MacBook Pro though?

I have two sisters and they both have Intel MacBook Airs that are maybe 3-4 years old. They were here last year and I told them about Apple Silicon Macs and they liked the idea, particularly getting MagSafe back as they had it on older Macs. These sisters are both well off and their husbands are tech folks (one is a former Apple engineer and the other is an IT guy for a cloud company); but neither feels a strong need to upgrade their Macs as they handle their current workloads. I think that Apple sells far more MacBook Airs than any other model and the reason is price - but there are lots of other good reasons to buy the MacBook Air. One of the sisters spent about $80K on a home remodel two years ago and an M1 MacBook Air would have been much less costly as an outlet for money.

I do see that college students are buying Macs. I often see the question on r/Mac on kids asking if they should get the MacBook Air through MacBook Pro 14/16. So some students have money to spend. Those that don't ask about used Macs and those that do ask about the higher-end models. My upgrade was from a 2015 MacBook Pro and I imagine that there were a ton of other people in the same position.

The thing is that Apple Silicon has given a lot more compute for the buck. I only need the compute of the base M1 or M2 - but I need the RAM and external monitor support that the M1 Max and M1 Pro provide - so I had to pay more for them.

There has been an overall shift on consumer discretionary expenditures from goods to services in the US and other countries which makes perfect sense as people were couped up for a long time.

 

[snak-atak]

I'm going to speculate why:

• People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less flexible when it comes to dropping prices.
• M2 was late by ~8 months (assuming they want to release a new gen every year).
• M2 Pro/Max, consequentially, was also late by 4 months.
• M2's performance increases did not knock it out of the park. No Ray Tracing support. No drastic increase in ST. Still using a node in 5nm family.
• Ideally, we should be on M3 right now.
• M1, Pro, Max were so good that people will wait for M3 or M4 to upgrade again. I'm in this camp.
• Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers
• Still no 15" Macbook Air, which will very likely become the #1 selling Mac when it's released
• RAM and SSD are expensive upgrades

The most frustrating thing about following Apple Silicon over the last 2 years is just how passive Apple's strategy is. Hopefully, Apple is learning a lesson here and will be more aggressive going forward. No more delays. No more holding back. Less stingy on RAM and SSD.

I think Pro users are anxiously awaiting the M3 to arrive while the average consumers who already bought an M1/M2 are happy with their purchases and have no plans to upgrade anytime soon. Apple essentially worked themselves out of a job with silicon. I do believe that when the M3 and the 15" Air make their debut, there will be a strong resurgence in new purchases... for a time. But they are pretty much at the point where processing speed is no longer a factor in a user's purchasing decision. Apple will have to innovate in other ways to increase sales post M3.

 

[snak-atak]

This doesn't explain why Apple fell more than other PC makers. Covid didn't just happen for Mac buyers.

Most businesses still run on PCs. And many of those businesses lease their equipment with a tech refresh cycle of 3-5 years.

Mac owners, on the other hand, do not upgrade their machines as often and M1 gave a lot of people an incentive to buy at that time. M2 as well to a certain extent. When you take current M1/M2 owners (many who may be anxiously awaiting the M3) out of the equation along with those that do not upgrade regularly, it starts to make sense.

 

[maflynn]

Would you buy her a $2,000 Mac or a $3,000 MacBook Pro though?

2k has been my limit, but I may have too for my daughter once she graduates HS

 

[MacRazySwe]

Let's reserve judgement until we have official numbers. Those are "Preliminary results". We heard the same thing back in Q222 and Q322...

Either way, it's bound to happen at one point. I'd consider Apples products to be luxury goods rather than commodities - which explains why they would've been struck harder in the current economy. On the other hand, their profit margins are probably extremely high, especially as they're now making their own SoCs.

As a shareholder I'm not worried about Mac sales, but rather iPhone sales. I think the lack of innovation from the 12 to 13, 14, and (possibly 15) could be a much bigger issue.

 

[transphasic]

PC Pain Persists in Q1 2023 Due to Excess Inventory and Poor Demand, According to IDC Tracker

IDC examines consumer markets by devices, applications, networks, and services to provide complete solutions for succeeding in these expanding markets.

www.idc.com

View attachment 2186762

What is most surprising here is that Apple's share growth is worse than other PC makers. It seemed like Apple was going to continue to gain market share in PCs with Apple Silicon effortlessly. But this didn't happen in Q1.

I'm going to speculate why:

• People are going back to buying cheaper laptops due to the economy, inflation, and exchange rates. Apple suffers in this environment because they're generally less flexible when it comes to dropping prices.
• M2 was late by ~8 months (assuming they want to release a new gen every year).
• M2 Pro/Max, consequentially, was also late by 4 months.
• M2's performance increases did not knock it out of the park. No Ray Tracing support. No drastic increase in ST. Still using a node in 5nm family.
• Ideally, we should be on M3 right now.
• M1, Pro, Max were so good that people will wait for M3 or M4 to upgrade again. I'm in this camp.
• Still no MacBook SE to capture the value Walmart/Costco Windows laptop buyers
• Still no 15" Macbook Air, which will very likely become the #1 selling Mac when it's released
• RAM and SSD are expensive upgrades

The most frustrating thing about following Apple Silicon over the last 2 years is just how passive Apple's strategy is. Hopefully, Apple is learning a lesson here and will be more aggressive going forward. No more delays. No more holding back. Less stingy on RAM and SSD.

The lack of an Apple ultrabook that weighs 2lbs or less, along with the ridiculously overpriced cost to reach 16GB RAM/512GB HD space, is what is destroying the Apple computer marketspace.

No ultrabook priced at $1200 or less with reasonable specs means the high school/college/traveler and walmart/costco-price-sensitive buyers are totally ignored, which is why I and millions of others have bought and switched to Windows machines.

My Samsung ultrabook is only matched in weight by a 7 year old macbook 12", which is utterly pathetic. Cookie is unbelievably clueless, and Jobs must be rolling in his grave watching a factory-floor operations clerk drive one of the world's great brands into the ground.

 

[Canado]

Here is my personal take. I switched to Apple at ca 2006 where in Germany many laughed at me then I upgraded 2009 from a white plastic MacBook to a MacBook Pro 15”. For that I paid 1500 EUR incl. VAT and could sell some stuff on top I got from Apple as student. I upgraded that machine later with RAM and SSD and could run it until 2022 - that is 13-14 years. Not recommended for everyone because I had to install packages via terminal to overcome missing functions and security features. But still I could use it long time which justifies the price.
Since years I wanted to upgrade but keyboards, bugs and prices are crazy. Not needing a laptop anymore I went with the cheapest Mac mini which is wonderful. 650 EUR with discount. I upgraded it with 2 SSDs (TM and photo/data) for 200 EUR

Why? Because pricing for RAM and SSD is again crazy. So if Apple would have given me 1TB instead of 256GB for 150 (that is more than I paid for Nvme and case). I would update with Apple. But Apple charges us 460 EUR. That is for this Mac mini a price people cannot justify from base. They want all in one and are not tech savvy so my option to get an external SSD is not convenient if windows machines do it for less.

My point: Yes, I understand internal SSD is fast and soldered RAM. But why cannot I get an upgrade later for a reasonable price at least for capacity. Also starting price for me was 1500 today for a 14” is 2400. That is calculated with inflation fair to me but how long will it last?

 

[Ethosik]

As a shareholder I'm not worried about Mac sales, but rather iPhone sales. I think the lack of innovation from the 12 to 13, 14, and (possibly 15) could be a much bigger issue.

See. This is why I want the whole AR/VR thing to go away. Macs were HORRIBLE from 2016-2021 but phones were great. Now macs are amazing again. But iPhones got worse since they are focusing on macs. Now macs seem to be getting less attention due to the massive push to AR/VR. We barely hear anything about macs. Where are the updated desktops outside the mini? How about some news on the Mac Pro, even if it’s news that it’s discontinued. But every week it seems we have 5 topics about AR/VR.

 

[pshufd]

See. This is why I want the whole AR/VR thing to go away. Macs were HORRIBLE from 2016-2021 but phones were great. Now macs are amazing again. But iPhones got worse since they are focusing on macs. Now macs seem to be getting less attention due to the massive push to AR/VR. We barely hear anything about macs. Where are the updated desktops outside the mini? How about some news on the Mac Pro, even if it’s news that it’s discontinued. But every week it seems we have 5 topics about AR/VR.

I am quite happy with my Studio and I could see using it for the next five years. It has far more CPU and GPU capacity than I need - I got it so that I could run 5 external monitors. And I think that Apple has been selling a lot of Studios. The M2 mini is enough for a lot of people too. I don't really see competition for these Macs right now so I think that Apple can coast for a while on their Macs.

 

[paardenkapper]

The inflation and rising costs for business as well as consumers are not a meme. It is a fact.
And with Apple releasing new versions of their RISC processors every year with marginal differences why update that often?

 

[Realityck]

See. This is why I want the whole AR/VR thing to go away. Macs were HORRIBLE from 2016-2021 but phones were great. Now macs are amazing again. But iPhones got worse since they are focusing on macs. Now macs seem to be getting less attention due to the massive push to AR/VR. We barely hear anything about macs. Where are the updated desktops outside the mini? How about some news on the Mac Pro, even if it’s news that it’s discontinued. But every week it seems we have 5 topics about AR/VR.

its perfectly natural with a maturing smart phone marketplace to see some aspects of feature competition to run out of steam at times. The macs didn’t impact iPhones that much. However switching CPU platform to AS SoC is a massive improvement against Apple’s computer line for the foreseeable future. Yes we are all waiting against what’s else’s shows up this year since the updated MBPs and Mac minis announced in January.

 

[IamTimCook]

Definitely was not the M2’s fault. The M2 was what kept Apple strong during the 4th quarter.

 

[ericwn]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

Pot well stirred. Would you like a broader brush?

 

[darkpaw]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

Nah, I disagree. I write code on one monitor on my Mac, and I have a second monitor playing a movie or TV show. Can't do that on an iPad. Also, do you know how difficult it is to write code on an iPad? Copy/paste isn't as easy as on an iPad. Moving the cursor to where you need it is also difficult on an iPad. The screen is smaller. It's just not a great device to write code on. I've tried. I can't do it. How do I create the assets for my apps if I have to use scaled-down apps on the iPad?

IMO, the reasons for the decline are: 1. the 'pandemic bump' is over; 2: their prices are stratospheric these days.

Their cheapest laptop is £999 (8c/7c, 8GB RAM, 256GB SSD).

The new MacBook Pro M2 Pro 14-inch is £2,149 and has 16GB RAM. If you want 32GB it's another £400. That's two and a half grand.

The M2 Max MacBook Pro 14-inch starts at £3,349. Want 96GB of RAM? You need to spend an extra £1,000 (£200 for the CPU upgrade to 38-core GPU, and £800 for the extra 64GB of RAM). It's an extra £400 for 1TB of extra SSD (taking you to 2TB). 4TB is £1,000 (that's £333.33 per extra TB). 8TB is £2,200 (or £314.29 per extra TB). These prices are so high, and well out of the grasp of most people. Yes, I get that Apple caters for the higher end, but they were affordable before, and they simply aren't now.

I read people saying that since Apple are making Apple Silicon they don't have to pay the extra profit margin to Intel, so the chips should be cheaper. This is clearly not the case. Apple have decided that each change in RAM or SSD is an excuse to price them hugely differently.

Also, if I'm going to spend £5,349 on an M2 Max MBP14 with 96GB RAM and 4TB SSD (the model I've been looking at), why do I have to then pay another £249 for three years of AppleCare? The laptop should have that added on for free. Or don't Apple think their expensive tech will last three years? (Yes, I get that they're not in the charity business.)

 

[pshufd]

Pot well stirred. Would you like a broader brush?

Companies are pushing towards mobile too. Comcast just got rid of web access to manage your Xfinity Mobile account. If you want to manage your account online, you have to now use their mobile app. I am a PC person and do not like using phones that much outside of making calls and text messaging. So this was a real nuisance for me. I can still manage my broadband over the web though. I would really get annoyed if they also moved that over to mobile.

 

[leman]

View attachment 2186920 Definitely was not the M2’s fault. The M2 was what kept Apple strong during the 4th quarter.

I find this data hard to believe. Apple financial statement for the last three months of 2022 records a 40% fall in Mac revenue. What kind of sales result in 40% revenue drop but only 2% shipment drops?

 

[Realityck]

People use their smartphones and tablets for their computing needs. Laptops and desktops are obsolete for 90% of people. The Mac is a legacy platform and will stay that way until Apple finally lets people develop apps on the iPad with a keyboard. When that day comes, the Mac will be put to rest.

Yes please tell us all about all the business applications you run on your iPad that allows true multasking that are simply beyond amazing. Thanks for making us smile this Monday.