Macworld2009: tv Predictions

[robster1958]

my guess

software: Hulu access 480p minimum

hardware: next gen box gets bluRay and video in. sony ps3 getting too big installed base. slingbox capability easy to implement if apple can bear unsightly IR flasher control and any patent issues.

 

[tuckerja]

I've noticed a lot of predictions or wishes that are already possible with the atv. I already have an external drive running through my atv. I already can plug in a usb dvd player to watch dvd's. I hulu on my atv everyday. I highly doubt apple would add apps like hulu or any other internet media streaming service. They like to sell tv shows and movies through iTunes. Allowing people to watch it for free would remove the need to buy. I could see apple releasing a 2.4 or a take 3, but the main reason for this would be to add shinyness to the atv. This might make hacking much harder so that you have to use iTunes for all your media. There are plenty of things we would like atv to be able to do. The thing is that most of the more useful ones seem to go against apples wishes for such a device. Just my $0.02

 

[CmdrLaForge]

I wish
- optional blu ray drive
- full 1080p60 playback on slideshows and video
- 250 gig Hd
- App Store
- email and browser
- bluetooth keyboard and mouse

Why can I do less on this device then on my iPhone?

 

[czachorski]

I'd expect they'd give unlimited access to rent iTMS TV content for a monthly fee

I love this concept. The problem with ATV is content. A box that moves iTunes content to the TV with TV shows at $2 per episode is just not that compelling. If Apple wants to be a commanding presence in the TV business like they are with music business, they need to be the first one to tap the new VOD market in a way like only Apple can.

They could easily add Tivo-like functionality to the ATV without content from the cable providers by using a VOD model. It would require a subscription model for content from the iTunes store that is priced competitively with cable companies and has an absolute wealth of content. This would be compelling as people could drop their cable subscriptions in favor of the iTunes subscription. Apple would be tapping an existing budgeted revenue stream of most families, instead of creating a new one. With such a VOD model, they could by far surpass the features of Tivos. Imagine grabbing a "season pass" to your favorite TV show, and having every single episode download overnight. Doing the same on Tivo requires months and months as the networks slowly bleed out content week by week. Access to a vast movie library would also blow Tivo away. THe absolute key to the whole things is a huge wealth of content. Apple is probably the only company out there creating a UI as elegant as Tivo's as well.

This is my prediction. That Apple will finally realize that the time is ripe to dominate in this market space, and make changes like this that are necessary to do so.

 

[Mary1970]

I hope we'll get support for:
- App store
- bluetooth keyboard
- Safari
- etc.

 

[kiranmk2]

I love this concept. The problem with ATV is content. A box that moves iTunes content to the TV with TV shows at $2 per episode is just not that compelling. If Apple wants to be a commanding presence in the TV business like they are with music business, they need to be the first one to tap the new VOD market in a way like only Apple can.

They could easily add Tivo-like functionality to the ATV without content from the cable providers by using a VOD model. It would require a subscription model for content from the iTunes store that is priced competitively with cable companies and has an absolute wealth of content. This would be compelling as people could drop their cable subscriptions in favor of the iTunes subscription. Apple would be tapping an existing budgeted revenue stream of most families, instead of creating a new one. With such a VOD model, they could by far surpass the features of Tivos. Imagine grabbing a "season pass" to your favorite TV show, and having every single episode download overnight. Doing the same on Tivo requires months and months as the networks slowly bleed out content week by week. Access to a vast movie library would also blow Tivo away. THe absolute key to the whole things is a huge wealth of content. Apple is probably the only company out there creating a UI as elegant as Tivo's as well.

This is my prediction. That Apple will finally realize that the time is ripe to dominate in this market space, and make changes like this that are necessary to do so.

This would be the ideal solution, but Apple still don't control content. As soon as the cable companies realised people were being drawn away from them, they'd put pressure on the studios to withhold content from Apple (as we are seeing with films vanishing from the iTunes store).

 

[ChrisN]

I think it would be cool if you could play games on it and use an iPhone or iPod Touch as a controller.

ChrisN

 

[bndoarn]

How likely would it be to see remote disc to allow you to play dvds from your pc/mac on the TV? I'm relatively new to the TV so i have no idea if this is even possible.

 

[czachorski]

This would be the ideal solution, but Apple still don't control content. As soon as the cable companies realised people were being drawn away from them, they'd put pressure on the studios to withhold content from Apple (as we are seeing with films vanishing from the iTunes store).

No doubt - very good point. Apple would have to pull off something amazing like they did with the original launch of the iTunes Music Store to create an alignment of interests to get the content needed. I suspect that the TV/Movie business is not quite feeling the pain yet like the record companies were 5 years ago, to sign up for such a deal. Maybe in a few years. It would be great if Apple could pull a rabbit out of their hats and pull it off now, though. So I will still keep it a prediction from me.

 

[Canada Chas]

We all would like ATV to be a lot of things, but I think Apple a specific agenda on what they want it to be. Apple has made a lot of money in the media content industry by selling music on iTunes. I am sure they plan to try to duplicate their success in the Movie / TV market.

I have heard lots of ATV dream lists and here are my thoughts on what is possible and what is not.

Add a DVD/Blu-Ray player to Apple TV: I love the idea, but apple will never have it. It would be like asking apple to add a CD player to the original iPod. Apple wants you to buy and or rent from iTunes. Apple is ahead of the curve on being medialess. The Macbook Air has no drive. They have been promoting the .me service to upload photos and movies on to send to friends and family instead of burning DVD's. I think the lack of Blu-Ray in general from the Mac line up is solid proof that Apple wants to focus on the content.

PVR and/or Cable card slot: Never going to happen. Again, Apple basicly wants to have their iTunes become self serve online media company. What I mean by this is they want to be an alternative to Cable, Satilite or FTA TV broadcast. Instead of having to set your PVR to record 30 Rock @ 9:00pm, you set your ATV to dowload 30 Rock and watch at your convenience. iTunes only real challenge is trying to stream live events like news and sports.

eSata/external storage: Apple has never ( to my knowledge) sold a product that came with eSATA port. The posibility of exteral storage via USB may be a possibility, but I think Apples master plan is to have one Central iTunes computer in a home and your storage is expandable by how much HD space you have or by any NAS storage.

1080p HD sound: This has a very good possibility of happening sooner than later. With the new graphics cards Apple is adding to their line up, ATV should be able to handle 1080p. That being said, 1080p movies and TV shows would be HUGE files and take a long time to download. Sat and cable HD is only broadcast in 1080i. Apple might be in no rush to get to 1080p except to have the braging rights. Having 1080p too soon, might put too much pressure on them to provide 1080p content, which would provide most people with a very slow and frusterating movie experience.

If ATV does get any updates, it will be the following:

App Store: Very successful on the iPhone, would be a great entry point in trying to use ATV as a game console. Legal way for people to mod their ATV

Bluetooth: If people want to add a keyboard to their set up

SSD: This would give the ATV a bit quicker performance and run as hot

Bigger Processor: faster

iPhone intergration: Be able to choose a moive over your iPhone for your ATV to dowload. Movie or TV show is waiting for you on your ATV when you arrive home ready to watch.


Just my 2 cents.

 

[czachorski]

PVR and/or Cable card slot: Never going to happen. Again, Apple basicly wants to have their iTunes become self serve online media company. What I mean by this is they want to be an alternative to Cable, Satilite or FTA TV broadcast. Instead of having to set your PVR to record 30 Rock @ 9:00pm, you set your ATV to dowload 30 Rock and watch at your convenience. iTunes only real challenge is trying to stream live events like news and sports.

I totally agree with this sentiment. For Apple to become an alternative to Cable broadcast for anyone but the rich, they need a different business model. Cable at $100 per month equals 50 episodes of iTunes downloads per month, or about 12 per week. Most families watch a lot more than 12 episodes per week. Heck, I bet the average household is closer to 12 episodes per day! They need a subscription model for content that is priced closer to cable. Right now it is an order of magnitude more expensive and just a boutique item for most people to fill in a missed episode, or for people who only watch a few shows.

 

[electronboy]

More like WebTV?

Since TV basically runs a stripped down version of OS X and can utilize an iPod Touch or iPhone (with the Remote application installed) as a full QWERTY touch screen keyboard, it might eventually let us browse the web with Safari?

 

[Tilpots]

We all would like ATV to be a lot of things, but I think Apple a specific agenda on what they want it to be. Apple has made a lot of money in the media content industry by selling music on iTunes. I am sure they plan to try to duplicate their success in the Movie / TV market.

I have heard lots of ATV dream lists and here are my thoughts on what is possible and what is not.

Add a DVD/Blu-Ray player to Apple TV: I love the idea, but apple will never have it. It would be like asking apple to add a CD player to the original iPod. Apple wants you to buy and or rent from iTunes. Apple is ahead of the curve on being medialess. The Macbook Air has no drive. They have been promoting the .me service to upload photos and movies on to send to friends and family instead of burning DVD's. I think the lack of Blu-Ray in general from the Mac line up is solid proof that Apple wants to focus on the content.

PVR and/or Cable card slot: Never going to happen. Again, Apple basicly wants to have their iTunes become self serve online media company. What I mean by this is they want to be an alternative to Cable, Satilite or FTA TV broadcast. Instead of having to set your PVR to record 30 Rock @ 9:00pm, you set your ATV to dowload 30 Rock and watch at your convenience. iTunes only real challenge is trying to stream live events like news and sports.

eSata/external storage: Apple has never ( to my knowledge) sold a product that came with eSATA port. The posibility of exteral storage via USB may be a possibility, but I think Apples master plan is to have one Central iTunes computer in a home and your storage is expandable by how much HD space you have or by any NAS storage.

1080p HD sound: This has a very good possibility of happening sooner than later. With the new graphics cards Apple is adding to their line up, ATV should be able to handle 1080p. That being said, 1080p movies and TV shows would be HUGE files and take a long time to download. Sat and cable HD is only broadcast in 1080i. Apple might be in no rush to get to 1080p except to have the braging rights. Having 1080p too soon, might put too much pressure on them to provide 1080p content, which would provide most people with a very slow and frusterating movie experience.

If ATV does get any updates, it will be the following:

App Store: Very successful on the iPhone, would be a great entry point in trying to use ATV as a game console. Legal way for people to mod their ATV

Bluetooth: If people want to add a keyboard to their set up

SSD: This would give the ATV a bit quicker performance and run as hot

Bigger Processor: faster

iPhone intergration: Be able to choose a moive over your iPhone for your ATV to dowload. Movie or TV show is waiting for you on your ATV when you arrive home ready to watch.


Just my 2 cents.

Didn't we just hear that from you?

Yeah... that makes 4 cents now, and still not a nickel of useful insight.

 

[dmm219]

No doubt - very good point. Apple would have to pull off something amazing like they did with the original launch of the iTunes Music Store to create an alignment of interests to get the content needed. I suspect that the TV/Movie business is not quite feeling the pain yet like the record companies were 5 years ago, to sign up for such a deal. Maybe in a few years. It would be great if Apple could pull a rabbit out of their hats and pull it off now, though. So I will still keep it a prediction from me.

Its important to understand the limits of Apple's influence here. Anyone who thinks Apple holds any kind of large mythical stick over the Studios (like they had with the labels), is not seeing reality clearly. Apple has very little influence with the studios at this point. As such, they have a very weak negotiating position. So long as ATV does not provide the same or better revenue streams that the cable companies, theatres and rental stores do, Itunes will continue to have sky high prices. I think this wish is just a bit too unrealistic to be realized any time soon.