Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.

ApplesAreSweet&Sour

macrumors 68020
Sep 18, 2018
2,288
4,235

Why would Apple accept trade-ins for the M2 MBA and M2 Macbook Pro (13") if it doesn't plan to introduce M3 versions?

Could this be confirmation that we will indeed see M3 at the show? Possibly Mac Pro (for people who want to trade in their M1 Ultra Studio)?

I've long speculated the following:
  • Apple has been manufacturing 3nm M3 chips at TSMC since volume production started last year
  • Apple wants to update Apple Silicon yearly
  • Apple wants to introduce the 15" MBA with a new M3 SoC
  • Due to constraints and unforeseen circumstances, Apple hasn't been able to update Apple Silicon on time but going forward, they will be more aggressive in catching up to their intended schedule.
I felt strongly about my speculations in the past. Then rumors from every source said the 15" MBA will launch with an M2 SoC. However, this report firmly suggests that M3 will be unveiled at WWDC.

Apologies for starting another thread on the same topic (better than 8 vs 16GB ram threads, right?) but I felt like this report was substantial enough to warrant a new thread.

===

Moderator Note:

Also see the discussion in the news thread:

Being that the M2 13" MBP and M2 Air are lowest-end M2 offerings and both having entered the Mac line-up much earlier than the M2 Macs that followed, I would say that the most likely scenario is Apple upgrading more M1 Macs to M2 versions, which could include Mac Studio, iMac(not likely), and Mac Pro(even less likely).

Then in addition, and still more likely than anything M3, is Apple adding the much speculated about 15" Air to the line-up.

My money is still on iPhones getting 3nm chips before Macs as Apple has consistently followed that strategy ever since iPhones dropped -iPhones get the new chip generation first as an A chip, and then Macs or iPads follow getting the same chip generation (not same chip naming scheme as iPhones, but same chip generation).

With this in mind, I don't get why everyone has such high expectations for the specs on a MacBook Air -MBAs have always been on the lower end of specs and just because the battery and display will be bigger than ever that doesn't mean Apple is suddenly turning it into some kind of 14" MBP replacement.

It's still just a MacBook Air. It's not going to get M3 or M2 Pro.
 

ApplesAreSweet&Sour

macrumors 68020
Sep 18, 2018
2,288
4,235
Let's also look at the optics of this.

"Good morning everyone! Please marvel at our state-of-the-art $3,000 headset with M2. Oh, BTW we're introducing M3 today."
Exactly my thoughts.

A 15" M2 priced below $1999 is a perfect fit in-between the $1199 M2 13" Air(+ 13" Pro) and the $1999+ M2 14"-16" Pros.

-Perfectly inline with offering something that offers more than the 13" Air while not offering so much that it would be higher value/$ than the $1999 14" MBP.

A 15" M3 Air priced below $1999 would kill most 14" M2 MBP sales, a product that launched some 5 months ago.

The only way the M3 Air doesn't disrupt the launch of the (M2 based) headset and the entire current line-up of Macs is if the headset is M3 and Apple bumps all MacBooks to M3 post 15" Air launch.

Where are we getting this notion that Apple is in some frantic rush to get M3 out right now?
 
  • Like
Reactions: JPack

quarkysg

macrumors 65816
Oct 12, 2019
1,247
841
- Mac OS X on Intel - this was someone who happened to compile OS X on a working x86 PC in a few hours and someone brought it up to Jobs attention. Its not like this was even strategic mission to switch to Intel. Its when they realized we are not gonna have a 3 GHz G5 and we'll never bring G5 to laptops they kinda made the last minute decision to switch to Intel.
Just so you know that Nextstep was running on x86 CPU before Next was bought by Apple, which ultimate morph into MacOS X.
 

Mr. Dee

macrumors 603
Dec 4, 2003
5,990
12,840
Jamaica
Just so you know that Nextstep was running on x86 CPU before Next was bought by Apple, which ultimate morph into MacOS X.
Yeah, but the actual OS X with user land wasn't available. The story of getting that running on x86 is different from the OpenStep lineage. Basically, Apple wasn't building x86 and PowerPC versions side by side. I remember the same guy who was responsible for testing OS X on the variety of Macs did that in his home in New Jersey. He showed a picture of all the Intel Macs he had in his home at the time. I wish I had saved that picture, it looks like Apple asked him to take it down. Steve Jobs made it dramatic like Apple was building both PowerPC and x86 versions of OS X for years, but that was just a performance. Marklar likely was 2002 or later. But the OpenStep work likely gave them a distinct advantage.
 

quarkysg

macrumors 65816
Oct 12, 2019
1,247
841
Yeah, but the actual OS X with user land wasn't available. The story of getting that running on x86 is different from the OpenStep lineage. Basically, Apple wasn't building x86 and PowerPC versions side by side. I remember the same guy who was responsible for testing OS X on the variety of Macs did that in his home in New Jersey. He showed a picture of all the Intel Macs he had in his home at the time. I wish I had saved that picture, it looks like Apple asked him to take it down. Steve Jobs made it dramatic like Apple was building both PowerPC and x86 versions of OS X for years, but that was just a performance. Marklar likely was 2002 or later. But the OpenStep work likely gave them a distinct advantage.
User land stuff is not as involved as compared to the kernel. Usually it's just a re-compile with some tweaks for user land components once the OS kernel is running.
 

mr_roboto

macrumors 6502a
Sep 30, 2020
856
1,866
Yeah, but the actual OS X with user land wasn't available. The story of getting that running on x86 is different from the OpenStep lineage. Basically, Apple wasn't building x86 and PowerPC versions side by side. I remember the same guy who was responsible for testing OS X on the variety of Macs did that in his home in New Jersey. He showed a picture of all the Intel Macs he had in his home at the time. I wish I had saved that picture, it looks like Apple asked him to take it down. Steve Jobs made it dramatic like Apple was building both PowerPC and x86 versions of OS X for years, but that was just a performance. Marklar likely was 2002 or later. But the OpenStep work likely gave them a distinct advantage.
I think you're trying to force a narrative which doesn't mesh with reality.

NeXTSTEP / OPENSTEP ran on 68K, IA-32, SPARC, PA-RISC, and even PowerPC. Yes, PPC! NeXT designed PPC workstations to replace their original 68K computer line. The PPC hardware and OS were cancelled before release when financial troubles forced NeXT to sell their factory and become a pure software company.

Fast forward to 1997. On the engineering side, the shortest path to getting OPENSTEP running on Power Macintosh was to dust off the old NeXT PPC port, make an Open Firmware bootloader, and write device drivers for Apple's motherboards. Took very little time, I remember some anonymous engineer leaking screenshots of first boot on PowerMac hardware about a month after the acquisition closed. But doing that very simple porting work didn't destroy the x86 port...

On the business side, just ask yourself what you might do in Steve Jobs' shoes. When he returned to Apple, the PowerPC alliance was already on the rocks. IBM and Motorola were no longer eager to spend enough on R&D to keep pace with Intel. Do you respond to this by letting the x86 port of your OS wither and die? Of course not. It's your lifeline, it's negotiation leverage.

It wasn't even all that hidden from the public. Remember that for all PPC releases of MacOS X, Apple released a corresponding version of the open source Darwin OS, which was the UNIX core of MacOS X with none of the GUI upper layers. All Darwin ISO images they ever released supported both x86 and PowerPC. So, it was public knowledge that at least the kernel and UNIX userland were being maintained on x86, the only question was whether they were privately keeping higher layers like Cocoa alive too. And there were often rumors that they were... true rumors.
 
  • Like
Reactions: leman

MayaUser

macrumors 68040
Nov 22, 2021
3,177
7,196
Why do you think they will put an M2 in the VR headset if M3 is available by WWDC for a Macbook Air?
why do you think an N3 is ready for WWDC for the Macbook air?
VR can have the N3 based, since im guessing that device will be released no earlier than fall/winter
But you cannot announce an 15" Mba with a release date 5-6 months away, so best bet is that it will be based on A16
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
why do you think an N3 is ready for WWDC for the Macbook air?
VR can have the N3 based, since im guessing that device will be released no earlier than fall/winter
But you cannot announce an 15" Mba with a release date 5-6 months away, so best bet is that it will be based on A16
You should read the post I'm quoting for context.
 

dmccloud

macrumors 68040
Sep 7, 2009
3,138
1,899
Anchorage, AK
I haven't heard of anybody else guessing the core and GPU count for M3 Pro.

Have you?

That is completely irrelevant to Gurman's track record - which while admittedly better than a lot of so-called experts, is still not what I would call "amazingly accurate." Ming-Chi Kuo seems to get the details right more often than Gurman, but he is also closer to the fabrication side of all things Apple.
 

MayaUser

macrumors 68040
Nov 22, 2021
3,177
7,196
That is completely irrelevant to Gurman's track record - which while admittedly better than a lot of so-called experts, is still not what I would call "amazingly accurate." Ming-Chi Kuo seems to get the details right more often than Gurman, but he is also closer to the fabrication side of all things Apple.
Agree...Gurman inside info has 100% accurate, then Gurman himself has an 70 or so accurate, and Kuo...that even about the headset he said it will be delayed by 2 months until August..
 

uffenman

macrumors member
Jun 6, 2022
52
84
Here are quotes from Gurman's article linked in the Tweet:



I highlighted the two contradicting parts.

Gurman says at least some new laptops will be announced. Some means more than one. But what other laptop is there to announce if there's no M3? All the existing laptops have been updated to M2 already. New colors for the 13" M2 MBA?

In addition, notice the word "probably". Gurman's source doesn't actually know for sure that there's no M3.

Maybe I'm reading too much into it?
What other MacBook is there to announce? A real "Air"....like the new iteration of the MacBook 12"......the entire "Air" series will probably be renamed as "MacBook" and an actual 2 lb "air" will be released.....
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Original poster
Nov 2, 2017
2,626
5,482
yes, i did, the question remains
That users has a point..M3 or let say N3 (Tsmc named architecture) is not ready for the Mba
He has no point. Again, why would Apple put an M2 in the VR device slated to be announced at WWDC if the M3 is already ready for the 15" MBA announcement? Makes no sense.
 

MayaUser

macrumors 68040
Nov 22, 2021
3,177
7,196
He has no point. Again, why would Apple put an M2 in the VR device slated to be announced at WWDC if the M3 is already ready for the 15" MBA announcement? Makes no sense.

i think he is referring to an M2 based SoC...like the watch has SiP.. i mean there is no room at all for an M2 in the VR device
Apple will not put an M3 into the 15" MBA, is not ready
 
Last edited:

jeanlain

macrumors 68020
Mar 14, 2009
2,459
953
make more sense from our side of view doesnt mean it will happen...Macbook air 15" will be based on M2, unfortunately
That doesn't make much sense to me. Why add a new member to the MBA family mid-cycle and not wait for the M3? What's the rush?
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,535
26,160
That doesn't make much sense to me. Why add a new member to the MBA family mid-cycle and not wait for the M3? What's the rush?


For most people outside this forum, they don't care if it comes with M2 or M3 because it doesn't have an annual cadence like iPhone.
 

jeanlain

macrumors 68020
Mar 14, 2009
2,459
953
For most people outside this forum, they don't care if it comes with M2 or M3 because it doesn't have an annual cadence like iPhone.
If Apple releases an M2 MBA in June, what will they do when the M3 is ready later in the year ?
- update the model less than 6 months after its introduction? That makes no sense and will only piss people off.
- wait for 6 months before updating the whole the MBA line? That would be awkward as the M3 will be tailored for ultrabooks.
- update the lower-end model only? This makes even less sense as the larger-screen model would become the slower model.
Apple has never done anything of the sort. If they didn't care about relative product positioning, we would know it.

I'll eat my hat if Apple released an M2 MBA in June. They just have no reason to, and plenty of reasons no to. It's not as if the MBA line was in great danger or anything.
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,535
26,160
If Apple releases an M2 MBA in June, what will they do when the M3 is ready later in the year ?
- update the model less than 6 months after its introduction? That makes no sense and will only piss people off.
- wait for 6 months before updating the whole the MBA line? That would be awkward as the M3 will be tailored for ultrabooks.
- update the lower-end model only? This makes even less sense as the larger-screen model would become the slower model.
Apple has never done anything of the sort. If they didn't care about relative product positioning, we would know it.

I'll eat my hat if Apple released an M2 MBA in June. There just have no reason to, and plenty of reasons no to. It's not as if the MBA line was in great danger or anything.

There is an assumption that M3 is coming later this year. I wouldn't be so certain about that.

Let's say M3 arrives in 6 months and it "pisses" people off. What are all the students who bought a 15-inch MBA during BTS going to do? Swear to never buy a MacBook again and go back to Windows?
 

jeanlain

macrumors 68020
Mar 14, 2009
2,459
953
There is an assumption that M3 is coming later this year. I wouldn't be so certain about that.
If they do release and M2 MBA in June, then I would be quite pessimistic about the M3 being ready this year.

Let's say M3 arrives in 6 months and it "pisses" people off. What are all the students who bought a 15-inch MBA during BTS going to do? Swear to never buy a MacBook again and go back to Windows?
Can you name a single Mac that has got a significant CPU upgrade only 6 months after its introduction?
We're speculating about an issue that doesn't even have to exist and about a strategy that Apple has never followed. Just release the 15" MBA when the darn M3 is ready and not 4-6 months beforehand: no problem to solve.
 

JPack

macrumors G5
Mar 27, 2017
13,535
26,160
Can you name a single Mac that has got a significant CPU upgrade only 6 months after its introduction?
We're speculating about an issue that doesn't even have to exist and about a strategy that Apple has never followed. Just release the 15" MBA when the darn M3 is ready and not 4-6 months beforehand: no problem to solve.

We've never seen such a significant drop in Mac shipment and revenue either. This decline isn't life threatening to Apple, but its executives are paid largely in stock. They don't want to see three consecutive quarters of declining Mac shipments.

This whole M2/M3 debate is basically irrelevant outside of these forums. The average consumer on the streets looking to buy a MacBook will buy what's available. People buying the 15-inch model are coming from Intel-based systems. They're happy with M-whatever. There are hardly any existing M1 users who need M3 because their computer is dog slow.
 
Register on MacRumors! This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.