Mountain Lion vs. Windows 8

[throAU]

Conversely Apple cannot match Microsoft's compatibility with a large and varied list of hardware. I don't want to sound trollish, but Apple's strength in its ecosystems is great but MS has advantages as well.

And this is gradually being thrown out the Window with Metro. Native Metro apps will not be compatible with Windows 7 and previous, and non-metro apps will look out of place and require the user to switch between two different UI styles.

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Doubtful. One of the primary factors driving choice is cost. As long as Apple stick with the $999 and up (with the mini being the outlier), a large fraction of folks will take the Windows box because it is more affordable.

Apple may take slight more of the $999 and up share but over time that share is going to retract. Apple is growing by taking share away from other over $999 vendors, not by growing the overall market.

So you think the mini is not going to be an option for people who don't like Windows 8?

Mac is already gaining market share, and has been increasing sales at 25% per quarter for a very long time now (years, something like 20 quarters or something?).

There's already a halo effect from the iPhone and iPad; the abomination that is Windows 8 could well be the thing that pushes a lot more people over the edge.

There are PLENTY of Windows XP hold-outs who refused to upgrade to Vista or 7. Windows XP runs out of extended support this year, and new hardware won't support their OS next time they upgrade PCs.

I'm not saying it WILL happen, but there's a half-decent chance.

 

[Krazy Bill]

There are PLENTY of Windows XP hold-outs who refused to upgrade to Vista or 7.

There's also a few of us still on Snow Leopard who refuse to go to Lion and don't like where things are headed based on Mountain Lion.

If somebody would write some decent trackpad drivers for Windows 8 under bootcamp I'd dump OSX in a heartbeat. (Still a genuine fan of Mac build quality).

Windows XP runs out of extended support this year, and new hardware won't support their OS next time they upgrade PCs.

The ink on my SL disk isn't even dry yet but it won't install on a new mac.

 

[deconstruct60]

So you think the mini is not going to be an option for people who don't like Windows 8?

If they are looking for a mobile/laptop solution then, no it won't be an option. Most PC users are looking for mobile/laptop solutions. Just look at the numbers of what people actually buy.

Similarly the folks looking for an xMac (headless iMac ) with a couple of PCI-e slots for higher end graphics are not going to buy the mini either.

There are some that are going to buy the mini. But the point is to look at what most people are buying.

Most people are buying mobile solutions. Mountain Lion's and Windows 8 skew toward making that sort of hardware more effective to use perfectly aligns with where the overall market is heading toward. Windows 8 also has features for the classic "box with slots" hardware but it is not what folks are yelping about.

Mac is already gaining market share, and has been increasing sales at 25% per quarter for a very long time now (years, something like 20 quarters or something?).

Up until relatively recently the overall PC market has been increasing. Apple going up while the whole market is going up typically lead to them treading water with perhaps relatively small (to overall market) gains.

Recently the PC (classified without tablets) market has gone flat. In that context Apple has been largely stealing share from other vendors. That is a zero sum game. At some point, unless the overall market starts growing, they will hit a wall in the next several years.

the abomination that is Windows 8 could well be the thing that pushes a lot more people over the edge.

Except Windows 8 isn't likely to push folks over the edge who are heavily wedded to either vendor diversity (which OS X offers none ), costs (more affordable PCs ) , or Windows infrastructure ( rip out AD , CIF/SMB , IE5 web apps , etc. ).

There are PLENTY of Windows XP hold-outs who refused to upgrade to Vista or 7. Windows XP runs out of extended support this year, and new hardware won't support their OS next time they upgrade PCs.

First, Extended XP runs out in 2014

http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/?c2=1173 (for USA users at least).

which is sufficient time for Windows 8 to get its first Service Pack if not get to a stable point release update status.

Second, it is primarily Luddites (or stalled hardware upgrade cycles ) that aren't moving to Win7 from XP. Many of those folks frightened off of Windows 8 will likely be able to optionally choose Win7. Vista ... yeah no one is going there, but Win7 wasn't that bad. It is at close to 40% of the Windows market right now. It has done a good job of killing off Vista and serving as a destination for XP users willing to get moving. Between Win7 , Win8 , and Mac OS X which OS has the closest application compatibility with XP ?

Third, anyone looking for 10 years of OS support isn't going to find it at Apple. Your assumption is that folks who want to cling to an OS as long as possible (e.g, XP users ) will jump to Apple in large numbers. That assumption has huge holes in it. Huge.

I'm not saying it WILL happen, but there's a half-decent chance.

I would put the chances at slim. Win7 deployments will probably continue to grow. The combination of Win8 and Win7 growth will likely relatively rapidly shrink the XP market share over next 2 years. OS X will snare a larger fraction of the "significantly above average selling price" PCs but that will remain a sub 10% share worldwide.

 

[tkermit]

I found this analysis by Asymco (When will tablets outsell traditional PCs?) pretty interesting, and it offers a perspective as to why Microsoft seems to be operating in panic mode.

 

[deconstruct60]

That's exactly right. They are forcing Metro onto Desktop users because MS have their sights firmly on the tablet market and don't actually expect Metro to appeal to Desktop users enough for them to naturally start using it,

No you are spinning what I said to push your premise. Your premise is flawed. The PC market wants mobile/laptop solutions. That is what people are buying in larger numbers. Orienting the major improvements in the OS toward non-mobile PCs is a grossly flawed idea, because that is not what most people are saying they want.

It isn't just tablets but most laptops that can leverage what Metro does on relatively (to 24-27" monitors) smaller screens.

Second, they aren't forcing anyone to use the apps other then perhaps a try out before resetting the customization settings. They want folks to try them, but are leaving the option to switch to another mode of operation. If they wanted to force people to use the apps over an extended period of time then customization would be alot harder or nonexistent.

but still need them on board so that developers see a need to provide Metro apps. If Metro was only offered on tablets, MS wouldn't be able to boast about the huge market opportunity there is for developers.

Chuckle. laptops/tablets outsold desktops years ago. (and I mean tablets in the broad sense, and not as a euphemism for iPad or iPad clone.). It is only going to be more skewed toward them in the next 2-5 years (which is the prime of Windows 8 lifecycle). There already is a huge market opportunity for apps aimed at those platforms. WinRT (http://blogs.microsoft.co.il/blogs/sasha/archive/2011/09/15/winrt-and-net-in-windows-8.aspx) makes building multiplatform apps much easier. Even easier than porting between iOS and OS X (which Apple is also trying to do with a more merged set of APIs and apps distribution models. ).

The last hot submarket in PCs was the netbooks. Netbooks had a problem in that the relatively high percentages vendors had to pay for Windows and the Intel CPU/chipset left rest of the device in a lower quality state. If Microsoft drops the costs ( savings driven by only ports to fixed, validated hardware configs) and lower ARM SoC costs ( dump Intel's higher priced solutions ) vendor could afford to increase quality in other components ( screen , case , multitouch pad , etc. ) at similar system costs. That hot growth category will probably return. Next generation Intel will have SoC solutions for x86s which will only sustain that growth further with folks who need several x86 apps.

That lower cost mobile/laptop system market far exceeds what the classic desktop-only market is going to do over next 5 years. Frankly, that kind of high volume/growth market is the only thing that can support these "App stores" with relatively low application prices. For smaller developers there is a deep need to find volume to make up for low prices. Targeting primarily large screened, fixed desktops isn't a good approach to hitting a volume market.

 

[tkermit]

The PC market wants mobile/laptop solutions.

True.

It isn't just tablets but most laptops that can leverage what Metro does on relatively (to 24-27" monitors) smaller screens.

I fundamentally disagree that Metro works great on non-touch devices.

Second, they aren't forcing anyone to use the apps

You're being disingenuous if you don't admit to them pushing the included Metro apps on people. Have you seen the Start screen?

laptops/tablets outsold desktops years ago.

Microsoft may see laptops/tablets as the same category. The consumer market, so far, seems to appreciate tailored interfaces for tablets (touch ) and laptops (keyboard & trackpad) each.

The last hot submarket in PCs was the netbooks. […] If […] That hot growth category will probably return.

You've got to be kidding.

 

[deconstruct60]

I found this analysis by Asymco (When will tablets outsell traditional PCs?) pretty interesting,

Pretty interestingly flawed. There is no way the growth rates for iPad and Android are in a power dive and then magically perfectly flatten off into a steady state hypergrowth (~60-90 y/y ) mode.

It is also a bit more then dubious that Amazon cycle higher but it blows off Nook and others who deploy more fully custom versions of Android. So slightly offbase there.

and it offers a perspective as to why Microsoft seems to be operating in panic mode.

It isn't "panic" mode. Merely adapting to the market. Certainly, if Microsoft gives away growth to fuel that steady state hypergrowth to iOS/Android

If the graph were more fully decomposed into Windows/Desktop and Windows/Laptops subgroups it would be evident that this isn't a "new" recent (1Q11) issue. It has been coming for several years. In plenty of time to get incorporated into early Windows 8 planning a couple of years ago.

 

[ericrwalker]

I installed Windows 8 CP on a spare HD I had laying around on my Dell Saturday. I can honestly say I hate the "tablet look" my computer and I miss the start menu.

I'll try to stick with my computer for a while, but as for Windows I think 7 is the best version so far.

All the more reason to go to OSX.

 

[Krazy Bill]

I installed Windows 8 CP on a spare HD I had laying around on my Dell Saturday. I can honestly say I hate the "tablet look" my computer and I miss the start menu.

Well, the OSX Lion/ML fans here would just tell you not to use those new features. Problem solved.

I'll try to stick with my computer for a while, but as for Windows I think 7 is the best version so far.

It's still there. In Windows 8.

 

[tkermit]

Well, the OSX Lion/ML fans here would just tell you not to use those new features.

They'd have a harder time telling you that if OS X actually booted into Launchpad instead of the Desktop, and an even harder one at that, if Launchpad contained shortcuts to iOS apps instead of the ones from OS X.

 

[thundersteele]

Here is a more detailed review of Win 8:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5630/indepth-with-the-windows-8-consumer-preview

My conclusions:
1) MS does a great job of making the OS run on older hardware. Apple failed here with Lion, but ML seems to do better again.

2) Metro will be accepted in the long term. OSX 10.9 will have something similar, hopefully better!

 

[baryon]

I know little about Windows 8, but I use Windows 7 at work a lot and I use Lion at home. And the more I use Windows 7, the more I hate it. I never really hated XP to be honest, and I still like it, but it obviously lacks pretty much everything you want an OS to do today.

But the style Microsoft seems to be going in is just… not a style at all. It's the pure definition of boring, business-like, gimmicky fancy ugliness. Like those transparent windows that have a matt texture with a shine on top. Wait, you mean, they're transparent, yet matte, and yet they shine? How the hell does that make sense? Obviously it renders text illegible so there has to be a while halo around it, which is horrible too.

But Metro? Huge, square boxes with monochrome icons in the middle? Is this the 1980's? And scrolling between them seems so damn laggy and unresponsive too. To me, there is nothing more important than an OS that responds to what you do, immediately, as you do it, with no lag. Apple is great at that (most of the time).

Microsoft is concentrating on merging tablets with PCs, and they are not caring about consistency, design, and usability at all. I don't know what happened to them since XP, but with Vista they just started to go downhill in terms of design and style.

I don't mind the iOS-like apps in Lion and ML, since they have a clean look. They look super modern and minimalistic, just like the rest of the OS. The only thing I hate in Lion is that Apple took features away that they made us get used to and love, such as Spaces, Exposé, and certain gestures. Not a huge deal, but I don't see why they changed certain things.

 

[coolspot18]

Lack of decent spaces/expose, useless features such as launchpad and gestures (I know I don't have to use them but a lot of emphasis is put on them), autosave (can't stand it), and the fact that it was buggy and seemed inconsistent. Mountain Lion seems to introduce a lot of consistency again, but I still don't like it. Hate on me all you want, I don't like it.

OS X has a pile of bugs that need to be fixed, like Bluetooth audio support, Finder copy/move bugs... a lot of serious core issues that have not been addressed for years.