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Because customers know about June and consequently no one is dumb enough to buy an iPhone in May. They stop buying and start waiting.

You would be surprised how few people keep in the know about iphone release dates, i shouldn't think it makes the slightest dent in projected sales.

The 3GS was a minor update. And the next phone is supposed to be a little more updatey. So if a shiny new model is good to go, why wait a full year?

Why wait a year?!? lol
A year is a tiny amount of time to expect a full product revision, and apple is trying to keep on top of it. If they do finish 'early' then i would imagine they would want to spend the rest of the time testing and developing.

Apple expect the 3Gs (and every model) to sell over a certain time period, and would expect a certain amount of profit from it... so bringing in a new product before the premium sales life is over will cost them money, bring advertising costs into an earlier 1/4, and mean they are expect to bring the next iphone out even sooner.
 
You would be surprised how few people keep in the know about iphone release dates, i shouldn't think it makes the slightest dent in projected sales.
So this figure is pure fantasy huh?

487px-IPhone_sales_per_quarter.svg.png


Sales decline dramatically prior to the introduction of a new model. And are boosted massively following the introduction of new product.

Why wait a year?!? lol
A year is a tiny amount of time to expect a full product revision, and apple is trying to keep on top of it. If they do finish 'early' then i would imagine they would want to spend the rest of the time testing and developing.
Did you really laugh out loud? Did ya?

It didn't take Apple a full year of development to come up with the 3GS. It was a minor speedbump. Two technicians and a soldering iron could develop the 3GS over a long weekend and a case of Red-Bull. So the idea that a new device started *after* the 3GS launched would be strange.

If there is a substantive new iPhone in the works. It would have started immediately after the launch of the 3G. There will already be 20 months of work done on it.

So of course, Apple could wait until June to release the device. Which is what everyone expects.

But what is the commercial case for waiting? What is the benefit in doing what everyone expects? An earlier release would stimulate demand, maximise sales, and send a very aggressive message out to competitors.

C.
 
Sales decline dramatically prior to the introduction of a new model. And are boosted massively following the introduction of new product.

They decline over time. People buy when it first comes out or when the biggest advertising promotion is set. Your 'proof' just shows sales declining over the product life...The sales difference in the 1/4 before the 3Gs release was much smaller than the one before, but by your reasoning should be reversed and the 3G sales should have bottomed out.
Also the 3Gs sales haven't stopped growing so why would apple want to introduce a new model now when they could wait and make more.

Did you really laugh out loud? Did ya?

i did. what you wrote was hysterically naive :D
 
Hmm ignoring the other points, I see.

How about this question?
Speaking theoretically, if Apple has new phone hardware, and a new OS ready to fly right now.

What is the commercial benefit of holding it back 'till the summer?

C.
 
Hmm ignoring the other points, I see.

How about this question?
Speaking theoretically, if Apple has new phone hardware, and a new OS ready to fly right now.

What is the commercial benefit of holding it back 'till the summer?

C.

Getting more sales, lower cost on old investment and thereby getting a bigger profit on total product cycle.
 
So of course, Apple could wait until June to release the device. Which is what everyone expects.

But what is the commercial case for waiting? What is the benefit in doing what everyone expects? An earlier release would stimulate demand, maximise sales, and send a very aggressive message out to competitors.

C.

You do seem very naive when it comes to marketing and especially when you consider that Apple have in recent years become one of the most effective companies in creating anticipation and garnering interest in forthcoming products by keeping everyone waiting! You're right that they probably could slip out their products early, avoid the months of forum discussions, magazine articles and general rumours that help build the classic 'Apple' anticipation. I really do not know where you got the idea that an earlier release would stimulate demand from. A later release gives the opportunity to build this excitement/impatience which then spreads from the hardcore users to the general public, until before you know it everyone has heard that the new wonderful iphone will be coming out on x/x/x.
 
Do you think Apple will release the iPhone 4.0 by March 2010? I cannot wait any longer!!!

I highly doubt they release a new iPhone in March. I mean, I would love them to because that's when my 3G upgrade is available but I doubt it. Electronics usually run a one year course before they're due for their next upgrade.
 
You do seem very naive when it comes to marketing and especially when you consider that Apple have in recent years become one of the most effective companies in creating anticipation and garnering interest in forthcoming products by keeping everyone waiting!

Keeping people waiting - as a way of making money! Genius! Perhaps they should lock the doors of the stores as another money spinning venture!

Anticipation is great from a point of view of hyping entirely new products. Apple pre-announce new products for this reason. It only hurts Apples competitors.

But when you are replacing an old product with a newer product the dynamic changes. The new product becomes a competitor to the old product - and that "valuable" anticipation does just one thing. It drives down sales for the current product as consumers universally decide to push back their purchases.

Customers who are waiting, don't generate revenue.

I am not saying that Apple *will* announce a new iPhone in March.
But I am saying that a decline in sales caused by anticipation of a replacement product is not good for business and I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple tinkering with the release schedule to maximise sales.

And the nice thing about these discussions is that reality comes along and resolves the argument for us.
If Apple don't release 'till July, I will be proved wrong!

C.

By the way, naive people believe the world is safe and predictable.
Whereas if you think that companies are aggressive and profit driven, I think that is called "cynical".
 
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