New "M" chip in MBP every year?

[friedmud]

What do people think? Will we get a new "M" chip upgrade in the MBP every year now? With Intel we really only got upgrades every 2 years or so - but since Apple basically makes new silicon every year for iPhones/iPads - will they do the same for MBPs now?

I'm asking because I'm currently saving up for a big buy (a maxed out 16" MBP) that I hope will last me at least 5 years (or maybe more). I'm wondering if at this point I shouldn't just wait for the M2-Pro/Max next year...

 

[leman]

This is probably not the answer you want to hear, but the most accurate statement is that we simply don't know. Some sources claimed that M-series will be on a 18-month cycle (which is an odd number), some speculate it will be bi-yearly, Apple did not say anything on the matter.

Personally, I think we will have yearly updates, but it will take some time to get there, maybe another two years. There are still supply constraints and not all pieces of the puzzle are in place.

 

[jdb8167]

This is probably not the answer you want to hear, but the most accurate statement is that we simply don't know. Some sources claimed that M-series will be on a 18-month cycle (which is an odd number), some speculate it will be bi-yearly, Apple did not say anything on the matter.

Personally, I think we will have yearly updates, but it will take some time to get there, maybe another two years. There are still supply constraints and not all pieces of the puzzle are in place.

Since node changes seem to be on an approximately 18 month schedule, having a new generation of MacBook every 18 months doesn’t sound very odd.

I suspect that there are just too many Mac models requiring different SoCs to have updates for all of them every year. I think we will get new Macs in every category more often with Apple silicon but not every model every year.

 

[TechZeke]

Since node changes seem to be on an approximately 18 month schedule, having a new generation of MacBook every 18 months doesn’t sound very odd.

I suspect that there are just too many Mac models requiring different SoCs to have updates for all of them every year. I think we will get new Macs in every category more often with Apple silicon but not every model every year.

Plus, the biggest bottleneck is software at the moment. The base M1 chip is probably already overkill or at least sufficient for 90%+ of Mac users and that is with plenty of apps using Rosetta. Point is, even if the refresh schedule is stretched out to 18 months, it's not going to make any really practical difference from the average user's perspective.

 

[cmaier]

Since node changes seem to be on an approximately 18 month schedule, having a new generation of MacBook every 18 months doesn’t sound very odd.

I suspect that there are just too many Mac models requiring different SoCs to have updates for all of them every year. I think we will get new Macs in every category more often with Apple silicon but not every model every year.

It‘s not unusual to design two generations on the same node, with the second generation designed to scale. You give up a little bit by designing to a common denominator scalable grid, but it‘s been done many times.

 

[darngooddesign]

What do people think? Will we get a new "M" chip upgrade in the MBP every year now? With Intel we really only got upgrades every 2 years or so - but since Apple basically makes new silicon every year for iPhones/iPads - will they do the same for MBPs now?

I'm asking because I'm currently saving up for a big buy (a maxed out 16" MBP) that I hope will last me at least 5 years (or maybe more). I'm wondering if at this point I shouldn't just wait for the M2-Pro/Max next year.

The next laptops will have the M2 not the M2 Pro/Max so they won't be upgraded MBPs with high performance chips. To get an idea of what the possible % improvement is for the M2, just compare the average chip generation improvements the iPads or iPhones.

 

[Internaut]

The numbers they’re selling suggest this is possible, but expect mostly incremental upgrades with something big every two to three years (I think).

 

[Chevysales]

What do people think? Will we get a new "M" chip upgrade in the MBP every year now? With Intel we really only got upgrades every 2 years or so - but since Apple basically makes new silicon every year for iPhones/iPads - will they do the same for MBPs now?

I'm asking because I'm currently saving up for a big buy (a maxed out 16" MBP) that I hope will last me at least 5 years (or maybe more). I'm wondering if at this point I shouldn't just wait for the M2-Pro/Max next year...

Never going to get exact answer during this crap we are currently living through. Both the Covid garbage and it’s chip shortage.

But even if chipsets were not constrained I doubt it would be any sooner than a two year cycle on MacBook Pro. It wasn’t before.

 

[MrGunnyPT]

We don't know but could be a 2 year upgrade instead of 1 and honestly it makes sense if we look back at the CPU/GPU gains in terms of ARM, every 2 years sounds quite an interesting upgrade.

But then again as Chevy said.. There's COVID and Supply Chain issues happening all over the industry

 

[Hexley]

Depending on the Mac's demand it could be shortened to every 12 months or be as long as 24 months.

 

[throAU]

I'm asking because I'm currently saving up for a big buy (a maxed out 16" MBP) that I hope will last me at least 5 years (or maybe more). I'm wondering if at this point I shouldn't just wait for the M2-Pro/Max next year...

Buy what you can afford/need when you can afford/need it. i.e., within reason - get the money then buy. Unless you know its right on the edge of a release window (like say, now through March).

There's always something around the corner. Whether apple release every 12 months, every 18 months, every 6 months will have little bearing on how long your newly purchased machine will last.

The smaller release time-frames will simply be less ambitious/progressive steps. But over 5 years, whether there's 2 releases or 5... the same rough progress will be made.

Waiting for the next big thing indicates either

• you really don't need it
• you'll just be waiting indefinitely

 

[dugbug]

I think they should take full advantage of their Ax cadence and beat intel like a drum by releasing Mx every spring and Mx pro/max every fall.

 

[ader42]

It would be nice if it was annual, but clearly we would already have M2 laptops if that was so.
Rumours are still saying M2 will come out next fall/winter so expect M2 laptops for next Christmas.

Before then we have more M1 Macs to look forward to.

I ordered a 16” MBP M1 Max last November, still waiting… expected mid March. There is zero chance in my opinion M2 Pro/Max laptops will be released before summer 2023.

Once we have all the M2 Macs available Apple might be able to migrate to an annual refresh of all Macs (consumer in fall, pro in the following summer for WWDC?).

 

[Wando64]

Apple is not going to sell new laptops to people just by putting a new processor in it, unless the incremental upgrade it provides is significant (such as from Intel to AS), and they are not going to significantly innovate on the other aspects of the design on a yearly basis either.
I think a two years interval is more achievable.

 

[boss.king]

I think the rumours are suggesting an 18-month cycle for M chips.

 

[leman]

Since node changes seem to be on an approximately 18 month schedule, having a new generation of MacBook every 18 months doesn’t sound very odd.

That is true, but it does result in an odd even schedule. Apple likes their regular events.

I suspect that there are just too many Mac models requiring different SoCs to have updates for all of them every year. I think we will get new Macs in every category more often with Apple silicon but not every model every year.

That is a good point.

It would be nice if it was annual, but clearly we would already have M2 laptops if that was so.
Rumours are still saying M2 will come out next fall/winter so expect M2 laptops for next Christmas.

Rumours are saying M2 Macs next month At any rate, I would not base my expectations on the current releases. There have been many bottlenecks and other issues, and it's not evident at all that these releases happened when Apple wanted them to happen originally. For instance, there is at least some reason to believe that the M1 Pro/Max Macs should have been out at or shortly after the WWDC, but had to be delayed because of display panel shortages. Similarly, the M chips are still in their infancy and will need some time to reach maturity. It will take another year at least until we get a regular pattern.

 

[leman]

Apple is not going to sell new laptops to people just by putting a new processor in it

Why not? They used to do it for years, and those times are generally recognised as the golden age of Mac. The only reason why they stopped doing that is because Intel had trouble with their release schedule.

 

[cmaier]

Apple is not going to sell new laptops to people just by putting a new processor in it, unless the incremental upgrade it provides is significant (such as from Intel to AS), and they are not going to significantly innovate on the other aspects of the design on a yearly basis either.
I think a two years interval is more achievable.

People don’t upgrade their MBP’s every year. They will do annual spec bumps on the processor, and people who are holding out for a few years will benefit. Just like they’ve always tried to do.

The only holdup at the moment is supply chain issues.

Each year for a decade they’ve updated the A-series with new cores. Those new cores are now jointly developed for M- and A-series. So they’ve done all the work anyway. That doesn’t mean EVERY mac will get spec-bumped annually. But every year there will be spec bumps.

 

[russell_314]

I don’t see Apple upgrading the processor every year. Most people expect their laptop to last longer than their phone. I don’t know anyone that replaces their laptop on a yearly basis. I know quite a few people that replace their phones on a yearly basis.

I understand some people will say well just because a new version is released that doesn’t mean people have to buy it. That’s true but if someone spends $3500 for a laptop then in less than a year one comes out that’s 20% faster it’s going to cause some people to have bad feelings. That type of situation is going on in the smartphone market but I don’t think it would work in the laptop market

 

[cmaier]

I don’t see Apple upgrading the processor every year. Most people expect their laptop to last longer than their phone. I don’t know anyone that replaces their laptop on a yearly basis. I know quite a few people that replace their phones on a yearly basis.

I understand some people will say well just because a new version is released that doesn’t mean people have to buy it. That’s true but if someone spends $3500 for a laptop then in less than a year one comes out that’s 20% faster it’s going to cause some people to have bad feelings. That type of situation is going on in the smartphone market but I don’t think it would work in the laptop market

You don’t update a product every year because you expect customers to buy a new one every year.

 

[russell_314]

You don’t update a product every year because you expect customers to buy a new one every year.

While I agree with that statement the problem comes from why Apple is doing it versus with the customers think about it. Apple has often done things for what they claimed was a noble reason but customers had the opposite opinion. I just don’t see them doing this being looked at in a positive light by the majority of their customers. Does that mean Apple won’t do it? Apple has made some decisions that would make this choice trivial in a PR sense, so maybe who knows 🤷‍♂️

 

[leman]

I just don’t see them doing this being looked at in a positive light by the majority of their customers. Does that mean Apple won’t do it? Apple has made some decisions that would make this choice trivial in a PR sense, so maybe who knows 🤷‍♂️

As I mentioned before, Apple used to update the CPU on the Macs two times per year. And it was working rather well for them. Having a slightly newer model available is more likely to trigger a purchase decision from people who are on the fence about upgrading.

It is not about folks buying a new Mac every year. It is about folks who's Mac is three years old and they are waiting for something to upgrade to. I would think that a steady stream of incremental upgrades is better for both Apple and the consumer than a huge upgrade every two years or so.

The big problem of course is the cost of new release. Back when Apple was releasing two updates per year, one was a minor clock bump provided by Intel. No changes to the computers themselves were needed, you just put in a slightly newer CPU SKU. Designing a whole new M-series SoC on other hand sounds like a much more involved and expensive enterprise. It is possible that eventually Apple will streamline their design process enough so that a new M-series every year might be feasible. We will see.

 

[russell_314]

As I mentioned before, Apple used to update the CPU on the Macs two times per year. And it was working rather well for them. Having a slightly newer model available is more likely to trigger a purchase decision from people who are on the fence about upgrading.

It is not about folks buying a new Mac every year. It is about folks who's Mac is three years old and they are waiting for something to upgrade to. I would think that a steady stream of incremental upgrades is better for both Apple and the consumer than a huge upgrade every two years or so.

The big problem of course is the cost of new release. Back when Apple was releasing two updates per year, one was a minor clock bump provided by Intel. No changes to the computers themselves were needed, you just put in a slightly newer CPU SKU. Designing a whole new M-series SoC on other hand sounds like a much more involved and expensive enterprise. It is possible that eventually Apple will streamline their design process enough so that a new M-series every year might be feasible. We will see.

Anything is possible. I could just hear people grumbling about it “Oh no my M1X MacBook Pro is obsolete now that the M2X came out”. I mean we both know that’s not true because the iPhone 13 didn’t make the iPhone 12 obsolete but it’s a common negative perception. Perhaps Tim Cook and his marketing magic will be able to overcome any negative perceptions

 

[leman]

Anything is possible. I could just hear people grumbling about it “Oh no my M1X MacBook Pro is obsolete now that the M2X came out”. I mean we both know that’s not true because the iPhone 13 didn’t make the iPhone 12 obsolete but it’s a common negative perception. Perhaps Tim Cook and his marketing magic will be able to overcome any negative perceptions

Ah, well, they used to do that. I still remember all these "I just bought a MBP but a week later there is a new one, Apple betrayed me!" threads. In fact, these threads pop up no matter whether Apple does a refresh every 6 months or every two years

I think the most important thing here is some sort of predictability. E.g. if people know that Apple generally has a pro hardware release in late fall and a consumer hardware release around mid spring, there are fewer surprises. Consumers hate surprises.

 

[cmaier]

As I mentioned before, Apple used to update the CPU on the Macs two times per year. And it was working rather well for them. Having a slightly newer model available is more likely to trigger a purchase decision from people who are on the fence about upgrading.

It is not about folks buying a new Mac every year. It is about folks who's Mac is three years old and they are waiting for something to upgrade to. I would think that a steady stream of incremental upgrades is better for both Apple and the consumer than a huge upgrade every two years or so.

The big problem of course is the cost of new release. Back when Apple was releasing two updates per year, one was a minor clock bump provided by Intel. No changes to the computers themselves were needed, you just put in a slightly newer CPU SKU. Designing a whole new M-series SoC on other hand sounds like a much more involved and expensive enterprise. It is possible that eventually Apple will streamline their design process enough so that a new M-series every year might be feasible. We will see.

It’s quite possible that Apple does clock-rate increases in between new architectures, too. That’s how we used to do things. You take an existing design, fix bugs in it, change a few things that are low hanging fruit but which you didn’t have time to do before tape out, and hammer on critical paths to buy yourself a bit more product at the high end of the Schmoo plot. Heck, for all we know Apple is stockpiling die that test in the highest bins so that they can use them as a spec bump going forward