New "M" chip in MBP every year?

[leman]

It’s quite possible that Apple does clock-rate increases in between new architectures, too. That’s how we used to do things. You take an existing design, fix bugs in it, change a few things that are low hanging fruit but which you didn’t have time to do before tape out, and hammer on critical paths to buy yourself a bit more product at the high end of the Schmoo plot. Heck, for all we know Apple is stockpiling die that test in the highest bins so that they can use them as a spec bump going forward

I also see it as very much possible going forward. M-series are still a bit raw around the edges and the mobile-only heritage is clearly seen in M1. Who is to say that future Apple Silicon versions won't be more adaptable to different computing environments?

 

[russell_314]

Ah, well, they used to do that. I still remember all these "I just bought a MBP but a week later there is a new one, Apple betrayed me!" threads. In fact, these threads pop up no matter whether Apple does a refresh every 6 months or every two years

I think the most important thing here is some sort of predictability. E.g. if people know that Apple generally has a pro hardware release in late fall and a consumer hardware release around mid spring, there are fewer surprises. Consumers hate surprises.

Other than the iPhone what is predictable about Apple and their product releases? When I say predictable I mean not they’re going to release some unknown pro hardware this fall but they’re going to release a replacement for a specific product. A good example in my case is I’m interested in a MacBook Air. Rumors say a new version is coming out soon but Apple isn’t going to say anything. I think there’s a good reason Apple is quiet about product updates. What if some people who bought the 13” MacBook Air this year waited because Apple announced a date for a new Air? That would hurt their sales.

Perhaps this also contributes to bad feelings when Apple releases a product unexpectedly. I mean what if I bought a 13” MacBook Air now for example? If I was like most people and didn’t keep up with rumors I would be pretty irritated when in March a significantly upgraded version came out.

 

[diamond.g]

Other than the iPhone what is predictable about Apple and their product releases? When I say predictable I mean not they’re going to release some unknown pro hardware this fall but they’re going to release a replacement for a specific product. A good example in my case is I’m interested in a MacBook Air. Rumors say a new version is coming out soon but Apple isn’t going to say anything. I think there’s a good reason Apple is quiet about product updates. What if some people who bought the 13” MacBook Air this year waited because Apple announced a date for a new Air? That would hurt their sales.

Perhaps this also contributes to bad feelings when Apple releases a product unexpectedly. I mean what if I bought a 13” MacBook Air now for example? If I was like most people and didn’t keep up with rumors I would be pretty irritated when in March a significantly upgraded version came out.

That was the nice thing about the old Spring/Fall cadence they used to have. You would catch the back to school folk and the just got my tax return folk in the same year. And (most of the time) the upgrades were incremental in the same year, so you didn't feel like you got screwed getting a Spring system over a Fall one.


Though to be honest I think the average Mac user/buyer isn't spec peeping like we do, so it comes down to can the Mac do you what you need it to do now, if so buy now, if not wait.

 

[friedmud]

Really interesting discussion everyone and good points all around.

Buy what you can afford/need when you can afford/need it. i.e., within reason - get the money then buy. Unless you know its right on the edge of a release window (like say, now through March).

There's always something around the corner. Whether apple release every 12 months, every 18 months, every 6 months will have little bearing on how long your newly purchased machine will last.

The smaller release time-frames will simply be less ambitious/progressive steps. But over 5 years, whether there's 2 releases or 5... the same rough progress will be made.

Waiting for the next big thing indicates either

• you really don't need it
• you'll just be waiting indefinitely

The “you really don’t need it” part is pretty much true of anyone with a MBP from the last 5 years ?

What happened to me is I messed up. I bought the 2020 Intel 13” MBP before the M laptops came out. It was a compromise at the time because I was trying not to spend a huge amount of cash (this is a machine for my side hustle of photography that makes very little $). But if I would have waited a few months I could have had an M1 Air or M1 13” MBP.

In reality though: buying a compromise was a bad idea. The laptop is just… not what I want it to be (in terms of speed, graphics card, battery life, screen panel type, and especially screen size). Do I _NEED_ a new one - well, no… this one does everything I want it to… just not at all as well as the new 16” would.

So - I have a machine that “works” and can wait if I should. I probably don’t mind waiting until sometime in 2023… but waiting for 2024 would definitely suck.

I think I’m going to see what they release in March and go off that. If the new M2 has features that I think I would want… then I’ll wait for the M2 Pro/Max….

 

[Fomalhaut]

It would be nice if it was annual, but clearly we would already have M2 laptops if that was so.
Rumours are still saying M2 will come out next fall/winter so expect M2 laptops for next Christmas.

Before then we have more M1 Macs to look forward to.

I ordered a 16” MBP M1 Max last November, still waiting… expected mid March. There is zero chance in my opinion M2 Pro/Max laptops will be released before summer 2023.

Once we have all the M2 Macs available Apple might be able to migrate to an annual refresh of all Macs (consumer in fall, pro in the following summer for WWDC?).

Over 4 months!? What happened to your order? I thought I had a long wait for my BTO M1 Max at 6-7 weeks (ordered mid-December - it was closer to 6 weeks in the end).

I agree that M2 Pro/Max are unlikely before mid-2023. However, Apple may move to a shorter 15-18 month cadence in the future.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Ah, well, they used to do that. I still remember all these "I just bought a MBP but a week later there is a new one, Apple betrayed me!" threads. In fact, these threads pop up no matter whether Apple does a refresh every 6 months or every two years

I think the most important thing here is some sort of predictability. E.g. if people know that Apple generally has a pro hardware release in late fall and a consumer hardware release around mid spring, there are fewer surprises. Consumers hate surprises.

Predictability is good for consumers, but can be a problem for vendors due to the "Osborne effect". This is why Apple is notoriously secretive about potential improvements or giving much advanced warning of launch events, and generally "keeping things mysterious".

 

[throAU]

You don’t update a product every year because you expect customers to buy a new one every year.

I suspect more likely they might stay on a previous node with the m chips for a while to get economy of scale a little more reliably.

Let aX shake out the yield on new process and then do an mX when comfortable with yield rates.

 

[throAU]

Really interesting discussion everyone and good points all around.



The “you really don’t need it” part is pretty much true of anyone with a MBP from the last 5 years ?

What happened to me is I messed up. I bought the 2020 Intel 13” MBP before the M laptops came out. It was a compromise at the time because I was trying not to spend a huge amount of cash (this is a machine for my side hustle of photography that makes very little $). But if I would have waited a few months I could have had an M1 Air or M1 13” MBP.

In reality though: buying a compromise was a bad idea. The laptop is just… not what I want it to be (in terms of speed, graphics card, battery life, screen panel type, and especially screen size). Do I _NEED_ a new one - well, no… this one does everything I want it to… just not at all as well as the new 16” would.

So - I have a machine that “works” and can wait if I should. I probably don’t mind waiting until sometime in 2023… but waiting for 2024 would definitely suck.

I think I’m going to see what they release in March and go off that. If the new M2 has features that I think I would want… then I’ll wait for the M2 Pro/Max….

I did the exact same thing expecting far more teething problems with the m chips.

The last intel air was hot, loud and slow. I’m normally a 13” pro user and expected an improvement from my 2015 13 pro. I jumped on the 14 ASAP.

 

[cmaier]

I suspect more likely they might stay on a previous node with the m chips for a while to get economy of scale a little more reliably.

Let aX shake out the yield on new process and then do an mX when comfortable with yield rates.

Maybe. My point is simply that you don’t need to wait for a new node to make a new chip. I’ve never worked anyplace that followed that approach.

 

[throAU]

Double post…

 

[Fomalhaut]

So - I have a machine that “works” and can wait if I should. I probably don’t mind waiting until sometime in 2023… but waiting for 2024 would definitely suck.

I think I’m going to see what they release in March and go off that. If the new M2 has features that I think I would want… then I’ll wait for the M2 Pro/Max….

This sounds like a sensible plan.

I think buyers are generally more satisfied when they buy a new model near the beginning of its refresh cycle, because you avoid the feeling of missing out if a new model is released shortly afterwards, or of having waited unnecessarily long to "get onboard".

If a new M2 Pro/Max surprised us with a release in late 2022 (i.e. a one-year cycle), then you would still be less than half way into that cycle if you bought an M1 Pro/Max in March, which most people are OK with. This assumes you don't have an immediate need for a new computer and have the choice to either buy or wait.

If there is an M2 release in March/April (which rumours indicate is unlikely...), then this may well be good enough for you, and you would save a lot by not buying an M1 Pro/Max.

If there isn't, then you either wait to see what happens in Oct/Nov 22 in terms of M2 MacBook or M2 Pro/Max releases, or just buy an M1 Pro/Max now.

It's frustrating not to have a clear picture of when the best time to buy is, but I've just been through the same process, and am happy that I recently bought an M1 Max, whatever happens with future releases. I was getting frustrated with my Intel MBP16 and wanted to change anyway, and had to consider that I might be waiting almost 2 years for the next M2 Pro/Max (potentially at the end of 2023), and that just seemed too long to put up with an unsatisfactory computer.

 

[diamond.g]

Maybe. My point is simply that you don’t need to wait for a new node to make a new chip. I’ve never worked anyplace that followed that approach.

Hasn’t it been a while since Apple has done a new chip on the same node previously used?

 

[jdb8167]

Hasn’t it been a while since Apple has done a new chip on the same node previously used?

Both the A14 and A15 are 5 nm. The A13 and A12 were both 7 nm. So it is the norm.

 

[diamond.g]

Both the A14 and A15 are 5 nm. The A13 and A12 were both 7 nm. So it is the norm.

So there is no difference going from N5/N7 to N5P/N7P.

 

[cmaier]

So there is no difference going from N5/N7 to N5P/N7P.

Not really. No more than the normal tweaks that happen from year to year in proprietary fabs (thinning a nitride layer here or adding a cladding layer there). Certainly doesn’t count as a new node in the traditional sense.

 

[diamond.g]

Not really. No more than the normal tweaks that happen from year to year in proprietary fabs (thinning a nitride layer here or adding a cladding layer there). Certainly doesn’t count as a new node in the traditional sense.

Do fabs still offer the “tweakless” nodes (as in everything ’N5’ is actually ’N5P’)?

 

[cmaier]

Do fabs still offer the “tweakless” nodes (as in everything ’N5’ is actually ’N5P’)?

Not sure what TSMC does. Typically fabs will continue running, say, N5 for designs that targeted N5 but won’t start new masks on the older variation. A lot of customers, particularly in automotive and aviation, can’t have any variation at all in their products over time otherwise they have to run through regulatory hoops again.

 

[Fomalhaut]

Not sure what TSMC does. Typically fabs will continue running, say, N5 for designs that targeted N5 but won’t start new masks on the older variation. A lot of customers, particularly in automotive and aviation, can’t have any variation at all in their products over time otherwise they have to run through regulatory hoops again.

Interesting! There was another question about whether Apple would continue to produce M1 SoCs and use these in other devices "because they already had a production line".

What is the usual practice in fab plants when a new design is released (e.g. M2). Are the machines specifically built or configured to produce a single die, or are they relatively easily reconfigured? Do they gradually re-tool M1 production to M2 as demand for the older model decreases?

How long is production capacity for older design kept going? I guessed that a capacity to produce M1 chips would exist as long as Apple products that use them are still supported through repair programs. i.e. if you need a new M1 motherboard to replace a damaged unit, you need to be able to produce the SoC, unless they keep a stockpile of them for repairs?

 

[cmaier]

Interesting! There was another question about whether Apple would continue to produce M1 SoCs and use these in other devices "because they already had a production line".

What is the usual practice in fab plants when a new design is released (e.g. M2). Are the machines specifically built or configured to produce a single die, or are they relatively easily reconfigured? Do they gradually re-tool M1 production to M2 as demand for the older model decreases?

How long is production capacity for older design kept going? I guessed that a capacity to produce M1 chips would exist as long as Apple products that use them are still supported through repair programs. i.e. if you need a new M1 motherboard to replace a damaged unit, you need to be able to produce the SoC, unless they keep a stockpile of them for repairs?

You switch from one design to another simply by replacing the masks that are used in the lithography processes. Apple provides a file in a certain format that essentially provides the locations and sizes of every polygon on each layer of the chip (the chip is made up of stacked layers, starting with the transistor layer, then polysilicon, then various metal layers, with various oxide layers in between). This gets converted into a mask which is used during lithography. Not much else changes between one design and another. In fact, it’s quite common that a fab will be making die for multiple customers simultaneously on one machine, with the reticle (the repeating portion of the wafer that corresponds to the lithography machine’s window) being split between them. (Lithography is sort of like a photograph - you shine radiation or light through the mask, and whatever the mask doesn’t block undergoes chemical reactions on the wafer, eventually forming features). I’m sure Apple doesn’t do share reticle space though - TSMC must devote the entire line to Apple.

Typically you keep making all sorts of designs until there is no commercial interest in that node size anymore, which can take quite awhile. Switching to a new node size typically requires that you replace a lot of equipment, and is usually done in a new facility (or new part of an old facility).

 

[Fomalhaut]

You switch from one design to another simply by replacing the masks that are used in the lithography processes. Apple provides a file in a certain format that essentially provides the locations and sizes of every polygon on each layer of the chip (the chip is made up of stacked layers, starting with the transistor layer, then polysilicon, then various metal layers, with various oxide layers in between). This gets converted into a mask which is used during lithography. Not much else changes between one design and another. In fact, it’s quite common that a fab will be making die for multiple customers simultaneously on one machine, with the reticle (the repeating portion of the wafer that corresponds to the lithography machine’s window) being split between them. (Lithography is sort of like a photograph - you shine radiation or light through the mask, and whatever the mask doesn’t block undergoes chemical reactions on the wafer, eventually forming features). I’m sure Apple doesn’t do share reticle space though - TSMC must devote the entire line to Apple.

Typically you keep making all sorts of designs until there is no commercial interest in that node size anymore, which can take quite awhile. Switching to a new node size typically requires that you replace a lot of equipment, and is usually done in a new facility (or new part of an old facility).

Very informative; thanks!

 

[Sydde]

Since node changes seem to be on an approximately 18 month schedule, having a new generation of MacBook every 18 months doesn’t sound very odd.

It sounds very symmetrical: a new model every Moore.

 

[Jorbanead]

I think the baseline M1, M2, M3, M4 chips will eventually release annually. And then every 18-24 months we will see the Pro/Max varients. Just how Apple skipped A11X, I think some years we won't see a Pro/Max variant.

Essentially, consumer Macs get yearly updates. Pro macs get 18-24 month updates.

 

[throAU]

I think some get too caught up in the idea of what they could buy today vs. what they could buy next year.

top tip: next year will likely always be better.

Compare what you're buying today to what else is available TODAY.

If you don't need to buy today, or today does not offer an appreciable benefit then: don't.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

I think the baseline M1, M2, M3, M4 chips will eventually release annually. And then every 18-24 months we will see the Pro/Max varients. Just how Apple skipped A11X, I think some years we won't see a Pro/Max variant.

Essentially, consumer Macs get yearly updates. Pro macs get 18-24 month updates.

But we are already past the 1 year deadline for consumer updates.

 

[cmaier]

But we are already past the 1 year deadline for consumer updates.

I think it’s hard to tell much from that - stuff taped out a long time ago and hasn’t made it into products yet, presumably because of the weird supply chain/covid situation. I think once the transition’s complete and once things are back to normal in the economy that we’ll see a more regular cadence.