This is exactly how I think it’s going to pan out in all honesty….Yeah fair enough. So the timeline was:
- M1 Macbook Air (Nov 2020)
- M1 Pro / Max 14"/16" Macbook Pros (Oct 2021)
- M1 Ultra Mac Studio (Mar 2022)
- M2 Macbook Air (Jul 2022)
- M2 Pro / Max Macbook Pros (Jan 2023)
I would add that the M1 Ultra Mac Studio was already 1.5yrs after the first M1 Macbook Air announcement... And I think the consensus was that the Macbook Pros and Mac Studios were supposed to come out earlier but for supply chain issues... (Before the M1 Pro MBPs came out, there was conjecture on whether they'd go straight to M2 Pro given it was almost a year...) But you're right, Apple did something similar.
I think most likely timeline from here:
- 15" MBA (w/ M2) and Mac Pro (w/ M2 "Ultra+") released this summer
- M3 Refreshed 13" and 15" MBA released early 2024 (so >6 months later)
- M3 Pro / Max Macbook Pros (Q2/mid-2024)
M3 is likely going to launch late 2023 in the iMac and possibly the 13” MacBook Pro.
If this 15” MBA was having M3 it would almost certainly have an event, the fact that it’s going to launch as a site refresh shows that it is simply going to be the current 13” Air in a bigger form factor and that’s pretty much it…
Apple quite clearly does not feel this product is event worthy… as let’s be honest here… if this had M3 Apple could have quite easily had an event this spring launching:
M3 Chip
Mac Pro
15” Air
HomePod (2nd Gen)
New iPhone Colour option
But the fact that they’re not having an event shows that everything theyre launching is not event worthy… and an M3 15” MacBook Air definitely would be event worthy, an M2 15” Air definitely not.