Well, after reading this news I'm going to go back to reading a book on my Kindle. I have no desire to get an iPad as an ebook reader, my Kindle works great as one.
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Now it's really over for Amazon's Kindle!!
- Thread starter mozartwon
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The horse and buggy worked great for commuting to work too...
/history'd
I jest! (Sort of).
Master of completely irrelevant comparisons?
I use the Kindle because of the screen, I much prefer e-ink to a regular backlit LCD. Honestly I would not take an iPad (solely talking about e-books here) in trade for my Kindle for reading purposes.
What I said about Bezos is the truth. I revealed this because you askedBut I needn't have - even the rosiest of rosy analyst estimates for Kindle sales - all models, all time, are "a few million." 3? 4? Fine if you want to accept that I'll grant it. I believe Apple will sell more iPads than that in Year 1, while the current gen of e-readers are slowing down.
Best I could find, Amazon sold a total of 3 Million Kindles.
http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/29/3-million-amazon-kindles-sold-apparently/
In 3 years, that's not that great, but NOT bad either. I'm sure Apple wants to sell 30 million in that time.
@Anthonymoody, perhaps you are right. My evidence is anecdotal. I still think you are undermining how popular the Kindle/Nook has become.
Will the iPad blow it away sales wise? It might. But it's also an unfair comparison considering e-reading is only one element to the device. There will be plenty of people who purchase iPad's with no desire to use it as an e-reader. Whether that changes is another thing entirely.
Will the iPad blow it away sales wise? It might. But it's also an unfair comparison considering e-reading is only one element to the device. There will be plenty of people who purchase iPad's with no desire to use it as an e-reader. Whether that changes is another thing entirely.
Not irrelevant at all. I'm sure the gentle rocking of wooden wheels over rutted out dirt roads had its fans as well.
Well, time will tell re: sales but clearly our views differ. I think the iPad *will* blow all e-reader sales combined out of the water.
And your last point weighs in my favor when viewed through the lens of recent (last 5 - 10 years) history. People are *dropping* dedicated devices like flies in favor of integrated, unified devices. The number of product categories getting eaten alive by smart phones is long and growing longer every day:
-pagers
-dumbphones
-PDAs (electronic and paper)
-calculators
-cameras
-nav devices
-MP3 players
Once the functionality gets "good enough" in a given category, the tipping point tends to get passed and people favor the multi-function device. e-ink may be better in certain respects but history has shown that reading on an iPad doesn't have to be as good or better than on a Kindle. It only has to be good enough.
Well, if by explain you mean - define all the words in the sentence I wrote, how they fit together grammatically and logically to support my point, both as a specific example and as a demonstration of a broader and undeniable trend from history, then...no.
This is a no brainer. The iPad has a much larger target customer base than an e-reader. Not really a fair comparison.
And yet it is the comparison that is pertinent to the discussion. Market size is part of the central idea being debated here.
The debate was whether or not the iPad will "kill" the Kindle. I don't think anyone of either side of the debate disagreed with the idea that the iPad will sell more units, but the question is whether or not e-ink devices will suffer because of it. Some of us have stated that we believe e-reader sales to suffer, but still remain successful/viable.
The existence of the iPad isn't going to suddenly put all the devices or companies out of business like some in this thread seem to think.
Well I really don't believe this is entirely correct. First off, the camera market is not being "eaten alive" by smartphones. Nobody is using their cell phone cameras to snap photos when the time calls for something to be captured of any importance. Smartphones have not made a dent in the digital camera world.
And while more people may use their smartphones as nav devices, let's not jump to an extreme here. Portable navigation systems remain extremely popular in cars, along with what I'm lucky to have in my vehicle which is a built-in nav system.
Your point about people tipping towards a multi-purpose device is correct if they aren't sacrificing too much. What you are potentially conceding is that e-ink readers may indeed be better than what the iPad can offer for reading, but people will opt for the iPad because it does more things. Well, what about people in my boat? I have a MBP that offers the full web and a better movie watching experience than the iPad (to go along with full control over what movies/tv I can add to my laptop, etc). So I have no desire to own an iPad aside from the e-reader aspect. There are a lot of people who are in my situation. Why would we opt for an inferior reading device? (If that really is the case. I have yet to determine that until I test an iPad out.)
Definitely good points. I think what we'll see is that the iPad is useful for casual readers. But you'll see e-ink win for the more hardcore crowd that really enjoys their reading.
I think the big issue for Apple is overcoming the publisher issues.
http://industry.bnet.com/technology...odges-apple-ipad-to-keep-authors-in-the-dark/
My big hope is that if Apple does this successfully they put Project Gutenburg books in their own "area" so they don't show up in best sellers lists like on Amazon. Then there's all the authors giving away their free books so sell their other books. The free ones get so many "purchases" that it messes up finding the really good stuff.
I declare the Kindle to be the winner. No wait, the iPad is better. On the other hand you can't copy the backlit screen of the iPad on a copier, but the Kindle e-ink screen copies well. Maybe the Kindle should win. Oh wait, you can get an iPad with 3G and no data limit for $29.99 a month for whispersync and the Kindle app. Then again the Kindle comes with 3G and no data limit for free. I'm SOOOOO confused! Maybe the winner should be the lightest one. Maybe it should be the thinnest one. Maybe it should be the one with the longest battery life. Maybe it should be the system that keeps your ebooks synced among every other device you own. No, color should win. On the other hand, I'm a fan of email. It should be the one you can check your email on. Oh never mind, I have my email bookmarked in the Kindle's experimental browser. Forget that, the browser is painful to use. No wait, at least the Kindle has a "real" keyboard. Naw, it should be the one with the biggest app store. iPad it is! Now all we have to do is see which one can stay on if you want to read War and Peace straight through. Unfair, I realize, as no one reads War and Peace any more. Lets just pick the one that get's it's content sent wirelessly. Oops, they both do. I know we all like music. How about choosing the one that plays MP3 files? No, that won't work. They both do. How about the one that has a speaker built in? Or maybe the one that can read your text to you? Drat! Both devices have speaker and text-to-speech.
Looks like a tie. Sorry to have brought it up.
Looks like a tie. Sorry to have brought it up.
I declare the Kindle to be the winner. No wait, the iPad is better. On the other hand you can't copy the backlit screen of the iPad on a copier, but the Kindle e-ink screen copies well. Maybe the Kindle should win. Oh wait, you can get an iPad with 3G and no data limit for $29.99 a month for whispersync and the Kindle app. Then again the Kindle comes with 3G and no data limit for free. I'm SOOOOO confused! Maybe the winner should be the lightest one. Maybe it should be the thinnest one. Maybe it should be the one with the longest battery life. Maybe it should be the system that keeps your ebooks synced among every other device you own. No, color should win. On the other hand, I'm a fan of email. It should be the one you can check your email on. Oh never mind, I have my email bookmarked in the Kindle's experimental browser. Forget that, the browser is painful to use. No wait, at least the Kindle has a "real" keyboard. Naw, it should be the one with the biggest app store. iPad it is! Now all we have to do is see which one can stay on if you want to read War and Peace straight through. Unfair, I realize, as no one reads War and Peace any more. Lets just pick the one that get's it's content sent wirelessly. Oops, they both do. I know we all like music. How about choosing the one that plays MP3 files? No, that won't work. They both do. How about the one that has a speaker built in? Or maybe the one that can read your text to you? Drat! Both devices have speaker and text-to-speech.
Looks like a tie. Sorry to have brought it up.
FOR THE WIN!
Historically color has always wiped out and obsoleted black and white be it TVs, film, movies, and computers. I don't expect it will be any different with eBook readers. Plus there will be about another compelling 150,000 reasons to want an iPad or its coming competitors over a Kindle, Nook or Sony eReader.
True. But one thing that can't be rivaled is price point. Some people simply either can't afford or don't want to spend the extra money for more if all they want is an eReader. There's really no use in arguing/debating this point.
Sure it can. E-Readers aren't going to be squeezed just by the iPad, but also by cheaper Android tablets. Like the Archos 7 at $179.
http://androidhd.blogspot.com/2010/03/archos-7-home-tablet-for-179.html
But will it look like color paper? NO. Some of us want our reading to occur on a surafce that behaves like paper. As a reader that's what I want. I will carry my kindle with my iPad.
Not exactly a fair point. E-ink's appeal is that it looks pretty much just like reading the pages of a book. Whereas the other things you listed clearly were better consumed in color. Also people are not going to opt for an iPad simply because it does more. Some will, but like I said in my last post my MBP does everything an iPad does only better (e-reader aside). There are going to be consumers who strictly want an e-reader and for now won't pony up $500 for one.
I went and played with a Nook for the first time today. I came away very impressed. Reading an e-book for 10 mins essentially felt like reading from an actual book. But I'm still going to hold off until this fall to see what future Nook/Kindle models will be like. Plus I want to try reading an e-book on the iPad next week in the Apple store to compare.
Maybe. But that screen isn't the same as eInk nor is the size equal to that of the Kindle2.
Time will tell. Some threads want to question why there's such iPad hate. I have to wonder why so many people are so eager to get rid of eInk and other eReaders. All of these different devices can coexist quite peacefully making MORE people happy vs just certain segments
Look at the stats on pix posted to the major sites by device type. Sounds like you're in for a shock
Look at pricing for nav systems. Sales. Stock prices of the major mfrs. Tell you anything?
And no, wrong, sorry. I'm not saying that "people will opt for the iPad because it does more things." I'm saying people will opt for the iPad because the reading experience on it should be good enough (based on what we know about high quality LED backlit LCDs), and it does more, and it's price competitive for e-readers of comparable size.
Current e-ink hardware = game over, sorry. Nothing more than a tiny niche that's going to shrink over time.
Ok Anthony - that's an easy bet. Over WHAT time. You seem to think it's short. I seem to think it's longer.
Tell ya what. Gloating rights for you if it's before 2011. After that - I and others get to gloat. Fair?
History has proven over and over that people can/will opt for less expensive and less features. Look at the auto industry. Look at the MP3 player industry. Apple might have dominant marketshare for mp3s - but that hasn't stopped companies like SanDisk from selling thousands of their "inferior" products.
People like choices. Without them - the choice is to buy or not to buy - not WHICH to buy.
Look at the stats on pix posted to the major sites by device type. Sounds like you're in for a shock
Look at pricing for nav systems. Sales. Stock prices of the major mfrs. Tell you anything?
And no, wrong, sorry. I'm not saying that "people will opt for the iPad because it does more things." I'm saying people will opt for the iPad because the reading experience on it should be good enough (based on what we know about high quality LED backlit LCDs), and it does more, and it's price competitive for e-readers of comparable size.
Current e-ink hardware = game over, sorry. Nothing more than a tiny niche that's going to shrink over time.
Pix posted to major sites? Which ones exactly are you referring to? Facebook? Picasa? I'm sorry but people are not relying on smartphones to snap photos when it really matters. Vacations, holidays, graduations, etc. I've never heard the following from someone: "Yeah, I sold my digital camera. I just use my smartphone now."
Pricing for every technology drops over time. I read a stat this morning where flat panel TV's have dropped significantly price-wise in the past year. Are you going to argue that less people are buying those TV's?(FYI: They aren't).
This claim that the iPad "should be good enough" is total speculation as an e-reader. Look, I don't expect it to be a horrible experience, but as I stated before reading e-ink and reading off an iPad for an ebook will be two very different experiences. We won't have an answer as to how the competition will play out (iPad vs. current and future Kindle's/Nook's) until allow it to play out. Again the fact that the iPad "does more" is only relevant if you want or need your device to do more. I'm in the market for an e-reader. I love my MBP. I'll get an iPad only if I decide it is a more enjoyable e-reader versus the the Nook or Kindle once it is time to make a purchase. I will not purchase an iPad simply because "it does more". As for it being price competitive to similar sized e-ink readers, this is currently true, but I also think devices like the Kindle DX will go down in price very soon because they can't compete with the iPad at the same price point. I also think a lot of consumers prefer the smaller sized e-readers like the Nook and Kindle. Feels more like holding a paperback in your hand vs. a hard cover book.
Current e-ink hardware will most likely find it hard to compete with the iPad (if the consumer deems the iPad e-reader experiences as sufficient compared to e-ink). But at the same time I also see future e-ink devices coming about later this year that will definitely be viable competitors to the iPad as simply an e-reader device. To quote a previous post: "Some of us want our reading to occur on a surface that behaves like paper. As a reader that's what I want. I will carry my kindle with my iPad."
People don't realize this...so let me spell it out.
People who buy the Kindle do so to READ literature. The iPad is a toy and will NEVER replace a true eReader. It is very clear and evident people who think the iPad can replace a true eReader do not read often.
People who buy the Kindle do so to READ literature. The iPad is a toy and will NEVER replace a true eReader. It is very clear and evident people who think the iPad can replace a true eReader do not read often.