Ok Anthony - that's an easy bet. Over WHAT time. You seem to think it's short. I seem to think it's longer.
Tell ya what. Gloating rights for you if it's before 2011. After that - I and others get to gloat. Fair?
History has proven over and over that people can/will opt for less expensive and less features. Look at the auto industry. Look at the MP3 player industry. Apple might have dominant marketshare for mp3s - but that hasn't stopped companies like SanDisk from selling thousands of their "inferior" products.
People like choices. Without them - the choice is to buy or not to buy - not WHICH to buy.
You're good at twisting arguments but it's frankly tiresome. I never said choice wasn't good. I simply pointed out - with ample evidence - of where history shows this is all heading.
As for the timeline, too late it's already happened. The e-ink reader market is years old and still extremely tiny by any mass market consumer electronics standard. It's relative standing in the larger marketplace will only shrink from here. Sorry. Game over.
Pix posted to major sites? Which ones exactly are you referring to? Facebook? Picasa? I'm sorry but people are not relying on smartphones to snap photos when it really matters. Vacations, holidays, graduations, etc. I've never heard the following from someone: "Yeah, I sold my digital camera. I just use my smartphone now."
Pricing for every technology drops over time. I read a stat this morning where flat panel TV's have dropped significantly price-wise in the past year. Are you going to argue that less people are buying those TV's?(FYI: They aren't).
This claim that the iPad "should be good enough" is total speculation as an e-reader. Look, I don't expect it to be a horrible experience, but as I stated before reading e-ink and reading off an iPad for an ebook will be two very different experiences. We won't have an answer as to how the competition will play out (iPad vs. current and future Kindle's/Nook's) until allow it to play out. Again the fact that the iPad "does more" is only relevant if you want or need your device to do more. I'm in the market for an e-reader. I love my MBP. I'll get an iPad only if I decide it is a more enjoyable e-reader versus the the Nook or Kindle once it is time to make a purchase. I will not purchase an iPad simply because "it does more". As for it being price competitive to similar sized e-ink readers, this is currently true, but I also think devices like the Kindle DX will go down in price very soon because they can't compete with the iPad at the same price point. I also think a lot of consumers prefer the smaller sized e-readers like the Nook and Kindle. Feels more like holding a paperback in your hand vs. a hard cover book.
Current e-ink hardware will most likely find it hard to compete with the iPad (if the consumer deems the iPad e-reader experiences as sufficient compared to e-ink). But at the same time I also see future e-ink devices coming about later this year that will definitely be viable competitors to the iPad as simply an e-reader device. To quote a previous post: "Some of us want our reading to occur on a surface that behaves like paper. As a reader that's what I want. I will carry my kindle with my iPad."
You prove my point - " I'm sorry but people are not relying on smartphones to snap photos when it really matters. Vacations, holidays, graduations, etc. " EXACTLY. For the other 99.999% of the time, they use their camera phone - smart of otherwise.
As for saying the iPad will be a good enough e-reader being speculation...ummm, NO. I've read on the iPhone. My only complaint? Size. Problem solved thank you very much.
People don't realize this...so let me spell it out.
People who buy the Kindle do so to READ literature. The iPad is a toy and will NEVER replace a true eReader. It is very clear and evident people who think the iPad can replace a true eReader do not read often.
LOL. Literature? LOL. Toy? LOL. You literally make me laugh.
I read what can only be described as "a ton." About 2000 pages/week of scripts (that's 20 scripts/week for the uninitiated) and no fewer than 2-3 books at a time, usually one fiction, one bio, and one history. Since purchasing my K2 the amount I read has only accelerated.
And I will happily shed the 3/4 unnecessary pounds in my bag.
As for being a toy - that's simply preposterous. I'll be using my iPad as my primary computer. Toy? Hardly.
Ridiculous ridiculous ridiculous. If you're going to say preposterous things like that then you're beyond help.