At least LaCie and Promise have said that their products will start shipping in Q2. Computex looks interesting in terms of Thunderbolt.
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Reasons why I think there will be a refresh in June...
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At least LaCie and Promise have said that their products will start shipping in Q2. Computex looks interesting in terms of Thunderbolt.
Not just stupid HDDs but actual useful products like ACDs with built in docking capabilities via one TB cable. Obviously there are two products set to come out that will use it and others that will follow. But it will not produce widespread adoption for a year or more.
You just want to disagree with anything anyone says and find the technical words rather than looking at the actual meaning...you yourself has said it will just be for hard drives and USB 3.0 is better as HDDs cannot approach that speed, but Thunderbolt is going to be way more than those silly products that would be fine with USB 3.0. Think outside the box and read up on the actual capabilities of Thunderbolt! Most importantly is the forwards capabilities with the current controller. Making current MBPs capable of future computing power so they're not stuck. Thunderbolt is the best technology added to Macs since USB was invented. The problem is people are thinking USB and HDDs and not the future capabilities and built in assurance of being future capable.
Where did I disagree with anything? You said there won't be any accessories with TB for a year, which is not correct. You didn't specify it to an ACD with docking station.
Has there been an announcement of ACD with TB? No. Has there been an announcement of a product with TB that is not an external HD? If there has, then I have missed it.
Currently, it does not offer something that USB 3.0 does not. Yes, it has a lot potential, no doubt about that. It is one of the best additions for MBPs for years, no doubt about that either. But only time will tell what the future will bring. Just because something is possible in theory doesn't meant that it will actually exist. Hopefully there will be great products with TB so people can take advantage of it, but until there are, it is just another port to connect your external HD to.
Maybe we are just different. You seem to be optimistic about almost everything while I might be a bit pessimistic. Like I have said before, I will rather be positively surprised than negatively disappointed, so I don't expect too much.
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I've said it before, and I'll say it again... I seriously doubt Apple will move to AMD. No way. Especially with IvyBridge in the offing - even if they agree with you utter and complete hatred and dismissal of SB as a MBA chip, Ivy Bridge is ~12-14 months away, and it's not worth throwing away their entire relationship with Intel over.
Also, where are you getting this 5% statistic from?
As I've also said before, it's all gonna depend on sales. If people are like you and think that an upgrade to SB is only about Intel FUD re: processing power, and the MBA in it's current form sells well throughout the summer, then I can see Apple not updating it till the fall.
What I can't see is Apple resting on it's laurels so much that it leaves it's new "Future of the MacBook" lineup completely stagnant for 18+ Months. That's a bit ludicrous to me when there are things they can do - even if it's not SB, they could at least upgrade to 4GB of RAM standard, and add Thunderbolt?
One thing that bares mentioning, imho, is that there are people who love the 320M and hate the Intel HD 3000 graphics. And even though the HD 300 graphics are nowhere near the 320M performance-wise, I wonder how much that actually matters to people. I, myself use a 9400m machine all the time, with my Mac Mini HTPC and my work 13" MacBook Pro 2.53Ghz.
On my 15" MBP, I use the Arrandale Intel Graphics exclusively when I'm on battery (by using the excellent GFX Status Program). I suffer no ill effect. Youtube, Flash, 720p MP4s, all play fine. I'm not gaming on there, by any means, but even with the Arrandale Integrated Chip, which is 1/2 the power of the SB one, I don't notice any graphics problems/slowdowns.
That (combined with the fact that, as stated, I can't believe Apple would leave the MBA stagnant for 18+ Months after such a splashy overhaul) is why I think Apple has at least a 50/50 chance of upgrading to SB.
Don't forget, Scottsdale, and all you Intel haters, you can still hang on to your 320M machines and preach superiority over the graphics of the SB Machines if/when Apple releases them.
I agree that Apple's not about updating to the latest branding, and I also agree that the vast majority of MBA buyers couldn't give two craps about C2D or SB. But Apple loves splashy marketing. If they can bump the MBA before Back to School, and says it's the fastest computer under 3.0 lbs ever, why wouldn't they?
If we already agree that most MBA people don't care about C2D or SB, then why not fire up the Steve Jobs-Trademark Reality Distortion Field and knock the MBA out of the park for Back to School sales?
I will also agree that the trend is leaning towards yearly at best updates to the products. And Apple's been banking on sales holding out, as well as being beholden to Intel's release schedule regarding chip updates. But in that respect, I'd say that an October release *does* make sense, then. If they miss back to school, why not kill it for the holiday season?
But... if Apple's gonna release a SB MBA in October, why not just get it out ASAP? The chips are there, and everything else is there - why wait till October, when it'll be the same internals as are available today? I would say commitments to suppliers like Nvidia and Intel C2D would play a factor, as well as Engineering time, but otherwise, there's not a lot of reason to wait... unless Intel has a SB update that will make the LV graphics better/faster on the same TDP? Who knows.
Sandy Bridge is a compromise. No Ivy Bridge, no care. That's why I pulled the trigger on the current model last week.
Congratulations. You made an excellent decision for the right reasons.
Fyrefly... Of course it's much more likely Apple will go IvyBridge, but I wouldn't completely rule out AMD. With their next series of CPUs with amazing IGPs built-in they offer a better overall Mac. Apple does care about graphics as that's why they left Intel's IGP in 2008 in favor of Nvidia. AMD offers similar quality solutions that dominate Intel's IGP just as the Nvidia options had.
My "5%" number is a number I said I had guessed the number of tech geeks that actually cared who might be tech buyers of the MBA if Apple destroys it with an Intel IGP. As those geeks want more power in terms of Intel's bragging rights for CPU power, but fail to get what real world users would benefit from. I am so happy Apple doesn't cater to these people.
Finally, you act like you cannot read Apple's track record. They don't just update Macs when hardware is current or available. It seems to follow its other product updates and introductions and finds a gap when it needs to release a product due to sales slipping and the availability of something better. Most of us MBA users since October 2008 model know how this goes and how the wait and timing doesn't seem to follow a when hardware is available logic you're suggesting.
Apple obviously likes AMD's graphics, but just like in October 2008, they can get AMD's graphics, and not have to kick Intel out the door. ('cept when they need an IGP - then it's only Intel). I still don't believe Apple will abandon Intel, especially when as recently as last month, they got special treatment (first OEM to get the fixed SB Mobile Chips for the MBPs).
There's also jo-blo consumers who go to Best Buy and see 100 "Core iX" computers, and then look at the Macs and see "Core2Duo". Then the salesman (I've seen it happen) talks about how Macs are using "old" processors, and since the salesmen are usually more Windows-Centric, they'll try to make a Windows Sale. Apple loses customers like this every day.
I'm not saying there's a pressing need for them to SB-ize the MBA. But saying that only a 5% segment of technophiles cares about these things, is discounting the millions of dollars of Marketing that Intel puts into processors, with the help of Dell, Toshiba, HP, etc...
I've been a MBA user since JAN 08. So I know all about an erratic product update schedule. But gauging from pretty much every Apple product release - when Intel releases new processors, the Apple product line generally adopts them in the next 2-4 months.
Merom T7400/T7600 - Released Aug 06. In MBPs, MBs and iMacs by the November (4 months till the whole line got them).
Santa Rosa T7500/T7700 - Released May 07. In MBPs in June. Same family in iMacs in August. (Again, 4 months later).
Penryn T8300/T9300 - Released January 08. In MBPs in February. In iMacs (in a special version built just for Apple) in April. 4 Months again.
Penryn P7350/P8600 - Released April/Summer 08. In iMacs in April. In MBs/MBPs in October.
Apple always follows Intel's release schedule. The only time they didn't with the MBA was when the LV Arrandale's came out. Then Apple skipped a processor (at least in the lower-end machines, the MBPs and iMacs still got Arrandale) and grabbed the 320M instead - and this was due to them being caught up by the Intel/Nvidia lawsuit.
That suit's over, and the terrible fallout is still with us. But to say that Apple's doesn't "just update Macs when hardware is current" is false. They may not jump right on it like HP/Dell/etc... but they generally grab on within 4 months. Guess when the LV SB Chips will be 4 months old? June.
We'll see then, if Apple is still selling enough MBAs (I have always agreed with you re: sales being the determining factor). If not, and if they've deemed the LV SB chips good enough for a MBA refresh, we *could* see one.
They dont care. This is precisely why Apple took ownership of its retail space - http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/Q4.06/1DDD598A-7CE0-479E-A6F9-912777CAB484.html
"Between 1997 and 2000, the number of retail outlets offering Macs dropped from 20,000 to just 11,000. The majority of these were cuts made by Apple itself.
In 1998, Apple’s Cook announced the company would “cut some channel partners that may not be providing the buying experience [Apple expects]. We're not happy with everybody."
Apple then pulled out of Sears, Best Buy, Circuit City, Computer City and Office Max to focus its retail efforts with CompUSA. Apple later returned to Sears, only to pull out again in 2001. Apple also ended a shaky retail partnership with Circuit City in 2001."
We know what happened with CompUSA, and we know where things went from there. The rest is history.
Today 3rd party retailers exist simply to relieve load from the main retail channel. Their performance is not going to dictate product development, supply chain management, marketing, etc. One of those perks of being a titan of industry, and one of the reasons why they got there.
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Your error in facts is you're using the MBP and applying the chips used in it to the MBA. Look, the MBP buyers care about CPU and bragging rights, so the latest CPU is a priority there while it's not in the MBA lineup. You can think all you want but I have been there hopeful for updates before, and I don't believe it. I don't believe that SB brings a better all around MBA, so I believe Apple ignores it. In addition, Apple has all of its other Macs and iOS products to worry about as well as Lion and iOS 5. The MBA definitely isn't at the top of the list, and we can look at the past to show us that.
I believe anyone who expects a June or anything before October update to the MBA is a dreamer and isn't being realistic. I will happily use my C2D and Nvidia 320m in the most amazing Mac ever, the MBA without SB. It would be a mistake to go SB in the MBA, so the only way it happens is if Jobs has no more say and the people there start screwing up the method that works which is not to update until other product updates are cared for and there are components that provide a better complete MBA. Apple is all about the complete package with the MBA, and SB IGP provides a serious constraint.
I will put money on no MBA update in June 2011.
No update until June 2012 ... for good reasons as Scottsdale noted above.
Until then my Air will serve me well, incredibly well.
Additionally the MBP's need a design update BEFORE Apple is going to start spec'ing the Airs to meet MBP performance, that's where their profit is.
No way the Air is going to get an update in 2011. Plus what will Sandy Bridge and it's related components do for the Air? Allow it to render files 3 times faster? If you think that's important you've missed the boat, go to the MBP forum, that is not what the Air is designed for and it's unlikely it ever will be.
NOTE: Us MBA fans should stop defending the Air. People who don't own one or are all out spec wh*res don't get it and it's unlikely that will change.
Use one for a week, then people should comment. Ignore the ignorant posts .... there's no need for any MBA owner to be in defense mode ... we're getting a superior computer experience, that's what matters
Until then my Air will serve me well, incredibly well.
Additionally the MBP's need a design update BEFORE Apple is going to start spec'ing the Airs to meet MBP performance, that's where their profit is.
No way the Air is going to get an update in 2011. Plus what will Sandy Bridge and it's related components do for the Air? Allow it to render files 3 times faster? If you think that's important you've missed the boat, go to the MBP forum, that is not what the Air is designed for and it's unlikely it ever will be.
NOTE: Us MBA fans should stop defending the Air. People who don't own one or are all out spec wh*res don't get it and it's unlikely that will change.
Use one for a week, then people should comment. Ignore the ignorant posts .... there's no need for any MBA owner to be in defense mode ... we're getting a superior computer experience, that's what matters
Interesting that most, if not all the people who oppose to a Sandy Bridge refresh in the next few months own a current MBA. This makes me wonder how many of them are altruistic evangelists with the goal to keep the world safe from the terrible, terrible Sandy Bridge, and how many are mainly worried about the resale value of their MBA which will certainly drop once we see a new revision.
Seems obvious to me, Apple is pushing Thunderbolt... It's going to be that and Sandy Bridge which will mean a new iteration of the MBA, June? I would think that sounds about right.
The odd feeling I get, is only people who recently bought a MBA - don't want a refresh. I don't get that mindset but it does make me laugh like a mad squid.
The odd feeling I get, is only people who recently bought a MBA - don't want a refresh. I don't get that mindset but it does make me laugh like a mad squid.
Right... Obviously, you are clearly an Intel Engineer, just knocking about in MacRumors...
Congrats on your purchase, but it will grow old - just like everything else.
Amen. Apple have pioneered a new technology with Intel, and they are going to want it in all their computers as soon as possible to drive adoption. They're not going to sit back and wait a whole year for Ivy Bridge to land - that's a whole year of sales without Thunderbolt ports. June may be optimistic, but Apple also like getting notebook refreshes done in time for the Back to School promotion, so summer 2011 is likely.
As for AMD? Yeah, no.
Apple have a very close relationship with Intel - they get CPUs early, they get Thunderbolt well before anybody else and Intel have been their provider of CPUs since the x86 switch. They're not going to piss all over that arrangement over the HD 3000 IGP - Apple have already demonstrated that they'll use it in the MBPs.
The C2D chip is getting long in the tooth, and who knows if Apple can actually obtain the volume they need in to the future if Sandy Bridge replacements are out. After all, the vast majority of C2D CPUs are EOL'd on Intel's site. Equally, will nVIDIA keep churning out the 320M indefinitely?
Apple sell the MBA as a portable work machine, not a gaming machine. If the HD 3000 handles HD video, the OS X desktop and associated core technologies, then they'll use it. The gaming benchmarks are a side note, and really aren't up the priority list.
If you're that obsessed with gaming, the obvious thing to do is buy a 320M model before they're stopped, but stop pretending like you're the mass market and that Apple actually cares about your individual fixation. The current MBA is a good computer, but Apple will inevitably want to release a new one to drive sales and to give the impression of moving forwards.
Logical points. However Apple, especially with their MacBook Air line does not follow any logical form with their products, especially with their MacBook Air line. Those of us who've owned Air's since the beginning can attest to that.
Lion, iOS5, iMacs, Mac Pro, MBP's, iPad updates and then you'll see an update to the MBA's.
Summer 2012 folks, that's the next Air update, mark my words.
There are also the MacBook and Mac Mini lines. If history is any guide, they'll get the same processor as the 13" MacBook Pro and will be quietly updated between now and the summer.
- Lion, summer 2011.
- iMacs, anytime in the next 6 months. CPUs are available. Minor change really.
- MBPs just had an update, they're bang up to date with SB CPUs and Thunderbolt. No refresh until the end of the year, or even start of 2012.
- iPad 2 literally just came out. The iPad 3 has another year before it lands.
- Mac Pros have long, long refresh times and are heavily CPU dependent. They need socket 2011 first, which puts them on for a Q4 2011 launch.
So basically your list just collapsed to Lion and iMacs by the end of summer, with the MBPs and Mac Pro heading towards Q3/Q4 or 2012. Certainly not stopping an MBA update.
Buddy... you need to read a post before you bash it.
That's not what I said at all.At this time the MacBook Air is at the back of the line for updates. That's the just of what I wrote.
Get it now?
LOL. I look forward to every revision and order the moment they're available. Money for my mac addiction is thankfully not a concern
I've been hanging around the MacBook Air forum long enough to say that other members here who are lending their experienced opinions on MBA updates are also looking very forward to and buy updates when they're released.
You're not likely to find conservative spenders in the MBA forum, nice try though but it won't distract MBA owners offering their advice to people considering buying a new Air.
Buddy... you need to read a post before you bash it.
At this time the MacBook Air is at the back of the line for updates. That's the just of what I wrote.
Get it now?
Eh, and I said it wasn't. It can't be, the MBP just had an update, ditto the iPad.
I like your humour. Technological progress is inevitable. I still remember the time when the 486DX2/66 was the Everest of computer processors.
I think that's the earliest possible time for an update (but we're all guessing here). Realistically I think earliest = october, latest = early 2012.