So.... 16 inches in March?

[Serban55]

I think these rumors might be misinterpretations. Apple has been shipping custom GPUs for years. M1 comes with an Apple-designed GPU. My bet is that the rumored Lifuka is simply a bigger on-chip GPU, possibly with new features (hardware ray tracing maybe?).

I bet you would love an Gpu with 64 cores into the 16" Mbp...but i guess is too much for that chassis

Latest rumours is all about 14" and 16" boosting silicon in second half 2021

 

[Serban55]

To OP:
the 14" has more chances for March release/event
The 16" after WWDC , latest "news" said that the boost in silicon from 14 and 16" will come in second half

So im guessing, in March we will have the mini-Led ipad pro and the 14" Mbp
SO if you want the 16"...im guessing mid-late 2021
the 14" can be still related as marketing to the M1....it can have the M1X that is on paralel with the A14 generation
The 16" im guessing will come with the second gen M2 that will be on the same generation with the A15 that is Apples 5nm+

 

[Argon_]

To OP:
the 14" has more chances for March release/event
The 16" after WWDC , latest "news" said that the boost in silicon from 14 and 16" will come in second half

So im guessing, in March we will have the mini-Led ipad pro and the 14" Mbp
SO if you want the 16"...im guessing mid-late 2021
the 14" can be still related as marketing to the M1....it can have the M1X that is on paralel with the A14 generation
The 16" im guessing will come with the second gen M2 that will be on the same generation with the A15 that is Apples 5nm+

The 16 is a newer chassis than the 4 port 13. They might release a stopgap M1X 16 until they can update to the 14 and 16 MLED. This would be a good machine to buy on the grounds of reliability.

 

[Argon_]

Yeah I'd just booked a crazy number of projects between late November into mid-December, when I was in Lisbon...

...and my 2011 MacBook Pro died.

I had a backup, entry-level Chromebook, which can only handle several tabs before it reloads the first.

I instantly did three things:

• Rented a 2017 MacBook Pro 15" for several weeks ($300)
• Ordered a MacBook Pro M1 for February
• Ordered a Google PixelBook Go that was waiting when I landed in the UK on December 21st.

Renting the 15" 2017 MBP was a fantastic decision.

As it was, I did multiple all-nighters and sometimes napped for 30 minutes before carrying on.

And the MBP was responsive every minute of the way through.

I will never NOT own two solid laptops again.

I second the suggestion to keep the 13 as a spare once you decide on something better. A spare computer can turn a calamity into a manageable problem. I know this from experience. I'd suggest that anyone who can easily afford to should have one.

 

[UBS28]

The back orders is one of the reasons I don’t expect any new Mx Macs until later in 2021. TSMC’s 5nm production is fully utilized already and Apple is likely to need more 5nm in the late winter to support a new iPad Pro. Adding a new line of M1X SoCs is probably out of the question until TSMC can ramp 5nm production either by increasing yields or more fabs.

Would be funny if Apple has to go back to Samsung and ask them if they can produce some 5nm chips for them.

I guess Samsung will decline that offer since Apple is not exactly a loyal client as Samsung was producing all their chips in the past.

 

[leman]

Would be funny if Apple has to go back to Samsung and ask them if they can produce some 5nm chips for them.

I guess Samsung will decline that offer since Apple is not exactly a loyal client as Samsung was producing all their chips in the past.

What, and miss the opportunity to make $$$ of a lifetime? Don't be silly.

 

[alexjholland]

I second the suggestion to keep the 13 as a spare once you decide on something better. A spare computer can turn a calamity into a manageable problem. I know this from experience. I'd suggest that anyone who can easily afford to should have one.

Keep the order for the MacBook Pro M1 that should arrive in three weeks?

Yeah, that's my plan.

Even if a 14" comes out in March, I could then wait for 16".

In the meantime I've got a 4K monitor and a lot of work to get done.

If I sell it for 50% of what I paid in 18 months time to go for a big, 4-port 16-inch model that's matured nicely, then I'll be quite happy.

 

[Argon_]

Keep the order for the MacBook Pro M1 that should arrive in three weeks?

Yeah, that's my plan.

Even if a 14" comes out in March, I could then wait for 16".

In the meantime I've got a 4K monitor and a lot of work to get done.

If I sell it for 50% of what I paid in 18 months time to go for a big, 4-port 16-inch model that's matured nicely, then I'll be quite happy.

Keep the 13 even after buying a possible 16, instead of turning it over. That way you have a second machine waiting in case of damage or component failure. The second machine could pay for itself by preventing just a single day of downtime.

 

[Argon_]

One other thing. A 25-30W M1X paired with the 16's 100WH battery would last absurdly long. Also the battery would cycle so slowly that it wouldn't fail nearly as quickly.

 

[alexjholland]

Keep the 13 even after buying a possible 16, instead of turning it over. That way you have a second machine waiting in case of damage or component failure. The second machine could pay for itself by preventing just a single day of downtime.

True story. The cost of time can screw with your head a bit when you're running a business.

I queued up to return a Chromecast the other day and realised it would be signicantly cheaper for me to just chuck it in a bin and work for half an hour extra instead... But I didn't, because it 'feels' wasteful.

All that said, I've got a PixelBook Go as my second machine, which is great for writing with.

I'm a sales copywriter, so that's 80% of what I do.

However, if I start producing more video then I could certainly justify a second Mac.

 

[alexjholland]

Although... Maybe a 13" Macbook Pro might be nice for a second machine if my 16" is docked permanently.

 

[Argon_]

Although... Maybe a 13" Macbook Pro might be nice for a second machine if my 16" is docked permanently.

You'd have OS continuity, same programs, etc.

 

[alexjholland]

You'd have OS continuity, same programs, etc.

I run my business on Google Workspace (emails, calendar, contacts, docs, notes) so it works nicely on both.

I've got a complete set of Apple and Google devices

1. MacBook Pro / iPhone 12 Pro / AirPod Pro / Apple Watch 6
2. PixelBook Go / Pixel 4a / Pixel Buds

I like both MacOS and ChromeOS!

Windows can go to hell.

 

[iandk]

Just ordered a base m1 air and I’ll probably keep it as well when upgrading to the 16“ m1

 

[Zazoh]

If I sell it for 50% of what I paid in 18 months time to go for a big, 4-port 16-inch model that's matured nicely, then I'll be quite happy.

I think 18 months is a good plan. Even if they announce, there is the wait time for ordering, then the wait time for higher config. Then, because you are running a business, you don’t want to be on Gen 1 until some show stopper bugs have been worked out.

Also, you said business is good. Do what you have to do to make those commitments. Can’t tell a customer you are waiting for hardware that is still just speculation.

 

[pdoherty]

If you don’t think they are going to get all of their laptops on their own chips (Profit!) as soon as possible…

I have a bridge to sell you

No doubt - they are making bank by using their own chip that’s basically a PC-on-a-chip. And considering it’s killing benchmarks it’s a win-win for them and their customers. They’d have to be crazy to not put this in everything they make as fast as possible.

 

[alexjholland]

I think 18 months is a good plan. Even if they announce, there is the wait time for ordering, then the wait time for higher config. Then, because you are running a business, you don’t want to be on Gen 1 until some show stopper bugs have been worked out.

Also, you said business is good. Do what you have to do to make those commitments. Can’t tell a customer you are waiting for hardware that is still just speculation.

Yeah, there will be a tonne of new feaures I'm sure.

If I get a 16-inch in March then something like mini-LED will follow.

I'll just be grateful I've got two awesome laptops and the exciting new M1 with a 4K display.

18-24 months from now it sounds like there will be some exciting reasons to go bigger!

 

[Jimmy James]

Even if it released in March will it be another 6 week wait for that storage configuration?

 

[Argon_]

I think 18 months is a good plan. Even if they announce, there is the wait time for ordering, then the wait time for higher config. Then, because you are running a business, you don’t want to be on Gen 1 until some show stopper bugs have been worked out.

Also, you said business is good. Do what you have to do to make those commitments. Can’t tell a customer you are waiting for hardware that is still just speculation.

One of the good things about these early machines is the proven peripheral hardware. It takes away some of the worry about component failure that comes with first generation anything.

 

[randy85]

I'm in a similar position where the product I ultimately need is the more powerful 14/16” MBP, to replace my old 2016 MBP.

I think I’ll get a cheap-ish 13” MBA and then go all out on the 16” when that arrives. I’ll then keep both and they can be used for different purposes.

Weirdly enough, the thing that’s pushing me to get something new soon is the keyboard on my current 2016 MBP. It’s just awful. If I could type properly I might hold out but it’s driving me mad.

 

[Falhófnir]

I just think that Intel TDPs simply make sense when you look at firm factors Apple is interested in. M1 did t change anything in this regard - you still get 10-15W effective TDP, same as with previous Intel-based laptops. Only with M1 these TDP figures actually mean something useful. The Mac Mini is a different case, it’s clear that it’s there mostly as an afterthought. It seems to me Apple simply slapped their new ultraportable SoC into the existing chassis abs called it a day. I’d dint think that the M1 mini is representative of the future of the computer, there will probably be some significant changes. Apple is just playing it safe, not changing too many things at once.

Besides, do these TDP values truly “belong” to Intel? For example, Apple has been the sole buyer of Intel’s 28W CPUs for a very long time. This suggests to me that they see 30W as an appropriate power bracket for the “big” 13” - why would they be track now that they can actually use those 30W to great effect? Same for the 16”. And most importantly, it’s no good if an AS 16” ends up slower than an Intel one, especially in the GPU department. Actually, it’s not enough to match it, that have to beat it. That’s why I’d expect a 32-core GPU at least in the new 16”.

So I just wanted to come back on this now both Intel and AMD have introduced H chips that run (nominally) at 35W, it really goes to show that a 45W TDP isn't 'ideal' for a high power laptop form factor, it's just what Intel needed to get satisfactory performance at the time. So I still believe a ~30W "M1X" would be very suitable for both a 14" and 16" machine. Any extra cooling capacity in the 16" could then be used to offer the modular graphics chip as an extra option for those who want even better graphics performance (in the same way they used to offer an iGPU option for $1,999 and dGPU option from $2,499).

 

[leman]

So I still believe a ~30W "M1X" would be very suitable for both a 14" and 16" machine.

Oh, I am certain it would be more than suitable. The problem is market value. Apple doesn't have much competition in the CPU department, at least when multi-core performance is considered — a 30 watt 8+4 M1 variant will rival any desktop CPU Intel or AMD is going to pump out in the next year or two, but the GPU is another matter. With new Ampere mobile GPUs Apple has a challenge to overcome. It just won't do for the brand if the $1999 16" MBP will have slower graphics than a $1000 gaming laptop... I mean, it was nothing strange back in the Intel days, but Apple Silicon must be better or people will start wondering whether the switch was worth it for the high-end. That's why I see 32 GPU cores minimum for the 16", that would allow Apple to challenge the new 3060 RTX mobile.

 

[Falhófnir]

Oh, I am certain it would be more than suitable. The problem is market value. Apple doesn't have much competition in the CPU department, at least when multi-core performance is considered — a 30 watt 8+4 M1 variant will rival any desktop CPU Intel or AMD is going to pump out in the next year or two, but the GPU is another matter. With new Ampere mobile GPUs Apple has a challenge to overcome. It just won't do for the brand if the $1999 16" MBP will have slower graphics than a $1000 gaming laptop... I mean, it was nothing strange back in the Intel days, but Apple Silicon must be better or people will start wondering whether the switch was worth it for the high-end. That's why I see 32 GPU cores minimum for the 16", that would allow Apple to challenge the new 3060 RTX mobile.

Eh, I don't think Apple generally concern themselves too much with comparison to competition. It tends to be all about improving on what's gone before, so as long as a comparably priced 16" model improves on its Intel predecessor, they could still be free to provide a model with a lower entry price to push sales. But yes it's possible all new 16" would use the "M1X" but paired with the modular GPU with existing pricing maintained if they want to keep things simple to start with.

 

[Argon_]

Eh, I don't think Apple generally concern themselves too much with comparison to competition. It tends to be all about improving on what's gone before, so as long as a comparably priced 16" model improves on its Intel predecessor, they could still be free to provide a model with a lower entry price to push sales. But yes it's possible all new 16" would use the "M1X" but paired with the modular GPU with existing pricing maintained if they want to keep things simple to start with.

An iGPU option for the 16 would bring in a lot of buyers who want more screen real estate, without an extra $500.

16 iGPU cores, or a binned down 14 core version would still deliver admirable performance. Combine that with a $2000 starting price. Remember that the Intel CPUs for the 16 are ~$350, and I don't know the dGPU cost. Trim that off and make a lower priced base 16.

 

[UBS28]

One other thing. A 25-30W M1X paired with the 16's 100WH battery would last absurdly long. Also the battery would cycle so slowly that it wouldn't fail nearly as quickly.

Only 30W? The AMD 5500M has a TDP of 85W and Intel around 45W?

So Apple could maybe push for a 75W M1 chip perhaps for the 16” model.

And it would still last absurdly long because it will have 4 (or more) efficiency cores.