Re: cheaper SoC: isn’t this the case for the 13MBA and MBP as well? Yet there was no price decrease. So I don’t think we will see a price decrease.
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Speculation: M1X/Mac Book Pro/Mac Mini Pro… Prices?
- Thread starter jumpcutking
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Speculating that the spec I would be eyeballing would be give or take in the $3,500 range.
If they do show them and it isn't that much of a day to day upgrade over my current i9 8Core then I can easily wait until M2.
But we'll see tomorrow.
If they do show them and it isn't that much of a day to day upgrade over my current i9 8Core then I can easily wait until M2.
But we'll see tomorrow.
Will we see a SALE PAGE after DUB DUB or will it launch a few weeks from now? I hope tomorrow, Im ready to pull the trigger!
NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Thats gonna f up some thangs for me!! I was hoping to be at that price with 2tb ssd and apple care!!!
NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Thats gonna f up some thangs for me!! I was hoping to be at that price with 2tb ssd and apple care!!!
I expect MBPs would take at least 2 weeks after WWDC to go on sale, and quite possibly longer. It wouldn't greatly surprise me if the launch date was up to 2 months after announcement given the short gap since the M1 launch, although the only precedents for delays this long are the Mac Pros (with 5-6 month delay between announcement and launch)
why just 2T and not 4T? with the 16" you can go up to 8T, i bet you want 8T
The intel MBP 16 with 1tb and apple care or MBP 16in 1 tb and 32ram are ( want this more) $3988 and thats where Im hoping to be tomorrow. Intel MBP 16 w 2tb 32gb ram and apple care $4434.... The damn Tax is killer.
I won't use a lot of space on machine as I can edit video/photos off of a external drives. Plus Im not tryin to pay 800 for 4tb ssd
nope the 15" $1999 model had no dGPU(no AMD GPU) but then Apple also had the $2399 with an AMD gpu 15" model before the touch bar.
The 2016 15" MacBooks got rid off the iGPU only model, so the price started at $2399.
They dropped the iGPU model and only retained the dGPU model... previous 15" with dGPU cost $2499. So actually the TouchBar decreased the price by $100
True but Apple Silicon SoCs should be considerably cheaper to produce using Intel 6core/8core mobile chips plus a dedicated AMD GPU.They dropped the iGPU model and only retained the dGPU model... previous 15" with dGPU cost $2499. So actually the TouchBar decreased the price by $100
https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20200707-10377.html
Keep in mind that $200 - $300 is only for i3. Apple obviously uses i9 with 6+ cores for MBP 16" so I'm guessing those cost $300+ each. Maybe also add $100 for a dedicated AMD GPU. The base cost for CPU + GPU would be ~$400.
My lazy guess for a 10core CPU + 16core GPU Apple Silicon SoC is maybe $120 since it's nearly twice the size of the M1. A 5nm TSMC wafer costs $17k. If we assume that the MBP 16" SoC dimensions are 20mm x 18mm, plugging in the numbers will yield 150 dies/wafer which would make a SoC cost $113, rounded up to $120.
If these numbers are even close, Apple would save $380 on the base Macbook Pro 16" by switching to their own Silicon over Intel + AMD.
Drop the touch bar and maybe save another $50.
Thus, Apple could save ~$430 just by switching to their own AS and dropping the touchbar.
Digging around the internet, it seems like mini LED displays cost $100 to produce. Let's say that normal LCDs cost Apple $50. That's just $50 more expensive to use mini LED.
Bottom line is, Apple has an opportunity to decrease the base price of the MBP 16" if they want to. My guess is that Apple will keep the price at $2400 for the base MBP 16" and increase margin by ~$380. Even at $2400, the new MBP 16" would still have the fastest CPU, coolest and quietest chassis, and the best build quality in its class. Its GPU would be outclassed though because $2400 Windows laptops usually come with an RTX 3070 or better.
Another factor is inflation, supply shortage, and a huge increase in demand caused by the pandemic which makes it more likely for Apple to keep the base price at $2400.
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Don't forget the M1X 16" will also have great battery life than all Windows laptops.
That might very well be so, but the M1 Macs are still priced exactly the same as the Intel Macs they replace. One can probably try to justify it with the iMac (they new display is gorgeous and probably more expensive then the old panel), but not with the rest.
Also, if Apple drops the prices they are competing agains themselves. The current M1 13" with 16GB RAM and 512GB SSD (a reasonable entry-point for the prosumer Macs) is $1699. The 13" Intel MBP is $1799. The 16" Intel MBP is $2399... not much room to dry prices here.
One thing they could do of course is remove the M1 13" and replace it with the 14" (starting at $1499 for 16GB/256GB SSD for example). The 16" with 16GB/512GB could then start at $1999 or something like that. But frankly, it's Apple we are talking about, they love their price levels.
Oh well, we will hopefully know in few hours.
Ugh, I'm not sure how accurate this estimate is. For manufacturing the chip, sure. But what about the custom memory Apple uses (standard LPDDR4X for 8GB is already around $25 on the wholesale market, and Apple uses completely customary made chips)? What about the R&D that goes into the CPU? What about the package assembly, which is far from trivial? I mean, the overall cost is certainly going to be lower than buying the premium CPU+GPU combo that Apple buys (especially since their GPUs are custom-made), but I am not sure it's going to be that much cheaper.
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Admittedly optimistic prediction: 14”/16” MBP starting at $1699/$1999
I think Apple would be really wise to drop the starting price of the 16” to somewhere between $1999-$2199
I think Apple would be really wise to drop the starting price of the 16” to somewhere between $1999-$2199
I'm in agreement with you that Apple is likely to maintain its prices or +-$100.
I think Trendforce's estimates are accurate. I added a yield estimate for TSMC's 5nm wafer in my above post. $113/SoC for something that is nearly twice as big as the M1. If we assume that the M1 is 12mm x 10mm, a single TSMC 5nm wafer yields 489 dies which would make the cost $34/SoC. M1 is likely to cost less than $100 for sure.
I didn't factor in RAM costs but I assume Apple just glues normal LPDDR4X into their SoCs so I don't expect the RAM cost to make a difference.
Of course, we can't add in the fixed costs needed to design and test Mac SoCs. Those numbers are impossible to guess. But the cost should be helped by the fact that core designs are shared between the iPhone, iPad, and Mac.
Regardless, the gross margins for Macs themselves are considerably better by moving to AS and removing the touchbar.
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Even if the custom RAM costs doubled the $8 market price, it still wouldn't make a material difference in margins. If we assume that the M1 is 12mm x 10mm, a single TSMC 5nm wafer ($17k) yields 489 dies which would make the cost $34/SoC.
$34 for SoC + $16 for RAM = $50 total.
Intel i3s start at $200 - $300.
My guess is that i9s that Apple uses start at $300+.
Yeah I have the same fear, Apple don't sell themselves short and these machines will be pretty much unique in the market. Having said that there's a longstanding conspiracy that if there is going to be a price increase Apple themselves will seed the rumour in the days/ weeks before announcement so everyone can get used to the idea first. It held up with the recent iPad Pro XDR, a few days before the $100 price bump rumour appeared and quickly took hold... As we've not yet had that for these MacBooks, I guess that could mean a) no price increase, or b) no announcement today...
Well, my thinking is that was just swapping out a $290 (or whatever Apple pays for it) Intel chip for an Apple Silicon one that's probably in the $1-200 ballpark when R&D is factored in... with the 16" there's the $450 CPU, a $300 GPU, and probably a few other bits being condensed onto a chip which might cost a bit more, but even if it's $400 that's still a dramatic saving.
The 2015 $2,499 had 512GB storage though, so you’d expect the 2016 to drop by $200 as they halved the storage…They dropped the iGPU model and only retained the dGPU model... previous 15" with dGPU cost $2499. So actually the TouchBar decreased the price by $100
I'm not convinced that Apple's 8GB RAM costs them $50-70.
I'm just looking around the internet for LPDDR4X prices. Found this. 32GB of LPDDR4X costs only $13.40 which sounds about right. Apple probably gets it for even cheaper. There is no way in hell that I believe 8GB of LPDDR4X RAM costs Apple more than the SoC itself, even if the RAM is slightly customized and packaged with the SoC.