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Stock drop = No IPad

TNSF said:
Its not about being an expert, its about common sense. Which is why I just made a 52% return on Palm stock in just 20 days.
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Okay, Mr. Common Sense...why don't you tell everyone how they will know when a stock has "hit the bottom of the valley"? With AAPL right now, does it need to fall to $200? $150? Lower??

Oh, and if you made your big return on Palm recently, it was mostly due to the purchase of the company by HP, something you could not have easily foreseen. But congrats on your gains, regardless.
 
So you were planning to sell 2 or 3 shares? Make sure you don't accidently add 9 extra zeroes on the end of your sell order like the guy who put the decimal point in the wrong place on Thursday.

Which has me wondering why everyone gets to have their moves cancelled and take their turn back like it's some sort of game. If Joe Blow accidently sold 1000 instead of 10 and lost money, the NYSE would say tough, eat it you loser. But the big game boys write a billion instead of a million and it's ooh, we all lose so let's pretend the last 60 minutes never happened okay guys? Manipulation of the market of the highest order.
 
GamecockMac said:
Okay, Mr. Common Sense...why don't you tell everyone how they will know when a stock has "hit the bottom of the valley"? With AAPL right now, does it need to fall to $200? $150? Lower??

Oh, and if you made your big return on Palm recently, it was mostly due to the purchase of the company by HP, something you could not have easily foreseen. But congrats on your gains, regardless.
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The Palm transaction was a total no-brainer for me. I knew with 100% certainty they were going to be acquired. So when the stock hit 3.75 I made my moved based on:

-The huge patent portfolio that Palm has, which in itself is incredibly valuable (only Palm, MSFT and Apple have the necessary patents to support modern day touch computing)
-Modern, innovative webOS operating system that has potential beyond phones
-Relatively capable hardware business
-Total net worth well below market cap

I knew they would get acquired. I do admit that I thought it would take a bit longer and that the price would be higher. Oh well, can't be right all the time :)

With Apple I think there are two things driving down the price:

-Markets overall are sinking due to concerns in Europe
-Potential anti-trust investigation(s)

Now consider those two factors. First, market issues in Europe are blown out of proportion and don't actually have any impact on Apple. Apple has already proven itself to be recession proof so the sell-off is just panicking and people leaving the market out of stupidity.

Second, the potential anti-trust investigations will never have any impact on Apple when considering the facts. Apple doesn't have a monopoly, they don't even have the majority of the mobile market. Again, I think its people panicking out of stupidity.

The core fundamentals of Apples business remain unchanged. They will continue to print money faster than investors can count it. This tells me that the price absolutely will go back up and most likely very significantly.

So when will it hit the bottom of the valley? I dunno, I'm not psychic. But my common sense tells me that after investors consider things over the weekend and calm down that the stock will start to rise again by Tuesday.

But don't quote me on that. I'm just using my common sense and gut feeling.
 
TNSF said:
The core fundamentals of Apples business remain unchanged. They will continue to print money faster than investors can count it. This tells me that the price absolutely will go back up and most likely very significantly.

So when will it hit the bottom of the valley? I dunno, I'm not psychic. But my common sense tells me that after investors consider things over the weekend and calm down that the stock will start to rise again by Tuesday.

But don't quote me on that. I'm just using my common sense and gut feeling.
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Bingo. And it might start to rise even sooner than that, which is why I suggested to someone earlier in the thread that if they were thinking of getting in that they buy now, on this significant pullback, rather than get greedy and try to wait until it drops further. I'll be adding to my shares on Monday, so I'm putting my money where my mouth is in this case, and I still think we'll see $300 by year's end. :cool:
 
This thread is a great example of why they should require an education minimum requirement and/or age test in order to play the stock market :)
 
Apple stock is still up something like 15% in the last 6 months alone, even including the recent hammering. That's a very good investment any way you look at it. And I also think this holiday quarter is going to be insane for AAPL, with international iPad sales, a new iPhone, and OS 4.0, not to mention Mac upgrades. I know I'm not selling now.
 
TNSF said:
The Palm transaction was a total no-brainer for me. I knew with 100% certainty they were going to be acquired. So when the stock hit 3.75 I made my moved based on:

-The huge patent portfolio that Palm has, which in itself is incredibly valuable (only Palm, MSFT and Apple have the necessary patents to support modern day touch computing)
-Modern, innovative webOS operating system that has potential beyond phones
-Relatively capable hardware business
-Total net worth well below market cap

I knew they would get acquired. I do admit that I thought it would take a bit longer and that the price would be higher. Oh well, can't be right all the time :)

With Apple I think there are two things driving down the price:

-Markets overall are sinking due to concerns in Europe
-Potential anti-trust investigation(s)

Now consider those two factors. First, market issues in Europe are blown out of proportion and don't actually have any impact on Apple. Apple has already proven itself to be recession proof so the sell-off is just panicking and people leaving the market out of stupidity.

Second, the potential anti-trust investigations will never have any impact on Apple when considering the facts. Apple doesn't have a monopoly, they don't even have the majority of the mobile market. Again, I think its people panicking out of stupidity.

The core fundamentals of Apples business remain unchanged. They will continue to print money faster than investors can count it. This tells me that the price absolutely will go back up and most likely very significantly.

So when will it hit the bottom of the valley? I dunno, I'm not psychic. But my common sense tells me that after investors consider things over the weekend and calm down that the stock will start to rise again by Tuesday.

But don't quote me on that. I'm just using my common sense and gut feeling.
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50 percent sucks. I bought it at ~2 in Dec 08 and sold it at ~8 in Feb 09.
 
TNSF said:
I made my moved based on:
~
-Total net worth well below market cap
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Am I reading this correctly? One of the reasons you decided to buy it was because its actual true value was far less than the sticker price? And then you sold it to someone else who paid even more than that?
 
OP i would keep AAPL stocks, the drop is people just overreacting to news and people taking profits. apple will come back up.
 
awmazz said:
Am I reading this correctly? One of the reasons you decided to buy it was because its actual true value was far less than the sticker price? And then you sold it to someone else who paid even more than that?
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Sorry my bad, I meant to say that the total net worth was above the market cap.

At 3.75 the market cap of the company was about 600 million USD. The total net worth of the company was about 1 billion USD on paper. To me the spread was great enough to know that the purchase price wouldn't be any lower than 3.75 and most likely much higher.
 
tunerX said:
50 percent sucks. I bought it at ~2 in Dec 08 and sold it at ~8 in Feb 09.
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52% percent in 20 days is an annualized rate of return of 949%. Your transaction yielded an annualized rate of return of ~1200%. So you did better purely looking at these transactions. However, with your money tied up for three months and mine only tied for one, I have two months to make other plays which will push me way above 1200%.
 
just hold the stock and turn off the TV and dont read about it haha.

The overall market stinks recently...it is not just with Apple.

Sure Europe debt concerns can impact Apple sales and that is all bad and all, but at a certain price, it is already reflected in Apple stock.

Apple will have a hard time going up as the market continues to be scared. whatever.

anything under $200/share for AAPL is pretty attractive for the next year or two as the iPad ramps up.

someone mentioned anti-trust concerns. Apple has less than 8% of computer market and less than 10% of phone market. Nothing anti-trust about that.

and someone about Palm mentioned it was a no-brainer that he made 50% or something...Palm was toast...literally..they would have run out of money in a few months. I would feel more lucky than talented about making money off of PALM. Plenty of people lost on PALM with it near $17 only a few months ago. Their patents arn't worth much and their webOS did not sell well with the public. Compared to iPhone OS and Android...webOS is third-class. Good luck to HP. They paid it for so little, they could just erase it and it wouldnt really matter for them.
 
For anyone who listened to my advice last week...you're welcome.

I added to my AAPL position in afterhours on Friday, and was rewarded with a nearly 8% gain today.

$300 here we come! :D
 
GamecockMac said:
For anyone who listened to my advice last week...you're welcome.

I added to my AAPL position in afterhours on Friday, and was rewarded with a nearly 8% gain today.

$300 here we come! :D
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Indeed! The European debt arrangements announced over the weekend caused a 180 in the market.
 
PCClone said:
My plan was to sell my AAPL stock at $300 and buy my iPad. It is dropping like crazy and down to $235. :mad:

WTF???
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I guess it depends what you bought it at. As long as the iPad Mania is going on coulpled with the iPhone 4G Mania that will start soon the company will have earnings and should get a bit of a pop. $300.00 per share is a bit ambitious though.

After the mania dies down and all the stores are able to keep stock it would be a good idea to cash out. Probably some time in the fall. Don't count on the holiday season this year to give AAPL a bump.

BTW: The market events of last week were a blip, the real correction is coming this summer.
 
awmazz said:
So you were planning to sell 2 or 3 shares? Make sure you don't accidently add 9 extra zeroes on the end of your sell order like the guy who put the decimal point in the wrong place on Thursday.

Which has me wondering why everyone gets to have their moves cancelled and take their turn back like it's some sort of game. If Joe Blow accidently sold 1000 instead of 10 and lost money, the NYSE would say tough, eat it you loser. But the big game boys write a billion instead of a million and it's ooh, we all lose so let's pretend the last 60 minutes never happened okay guys? Manipulation of the market of the highest order.
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Yeah...so you'd rather have the entire market collapse because of some principle to protect Joe Blow? Hey, I get it...defend the little guys...just doesn't apply here.
 
Battlestar said:
I guess it depends what you bought it at. As long as the iPad Mania is going on coulpled with the iPhone 4G Mania that will start soon the company will have earnings and should get a bit of a pop. $300.00 per share is a bit ambitious though.
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Oh really? Guess you know something that the vast majority of analysts (who are paid to predict these things) don't know?

http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/ratings/

As of April 21 (last earnings report), no less than 20 analysts have set targets for AAPL at $300 or higher. I think I'll take their educated opinions over yours.
 
GamecockMac said:
Oh really? Guess you know something that the vast majority of analysts (who are paid to predict these things) don't know?

http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/ratings/

As of April 21 (last earnings report), no less than 20 analysts have set targets for AAPL at $300 or higher. I think I'll take their educated opinions over yours.
Click to expand...

Analysts are stupid. They suffer from group think and are always behind the market and never ahead of it. If you carefully follow them you'll often find they don't even know the markets, companies and technologies they are reporting on. They are the teachers of the investment world.

Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

Analysts are only good if you realize that you are smarter than they are. Then, you wait for them to move the stupid masses in a predictable direction which gives you the opportunity to capitalize on their herd-like behaviour.

Analysts are paid to analyze. They are not paid to be accurate.
 
TNSF said:
Analysts are stupid. They suffer from group think and are always behind the market and never ahead of it. If you carefully follow them you'll often find they don't even know the markets, companies and technologies they are reporting on. They are the teachers of the investment world.

Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

Analysts are only good if you realize that you are smarter than they are. Then, you wait for them to move the stupid masses in a predictable direction which gives you the opportunity to capitalize on their herd-like behaviour.

Analysts are paid to analyze. They are not paid to be accurate.
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And if we were talking about 2 or 3 analysts setting these price targets for AAPL, I'd be inclined to agree with you, but twenty? Sorry, I'm not buying that they are all wrong and stupid. Apple will hit $300 by the end of this year. Bank on it.
 
GamecockMac said:
And if we were talking about 2 or 3 analysts setting these price targets for AAPL, I'd be inclined to agree with you, but twenty? Sorry, I'm not buying that they are all wrong and stupid. Apple will hit $300 by the end of this year. Bank on it.
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Oh I agree with you there. Apple will hit $300 barring any unforeseen disasters. Not because 20 analysts said so, but because its obvious based on Apple's product pipeline, trends, etc. Its common sense.
 
GamecockMac said:
Oh really? Guess you know something that the vast majority of analysts (who are paid to predict these things) don't know?

http://aaplinvestors.net/stats/ratings/

As of April 21 (last earnings report), no less than 20 analysts have set targets for AAPL at $300 or higher. I think I'll take their educated opinions over yours.
Click to expand...

We are talking about the same analysts who missed the dot com bust of 2000 and who couldn't see the real estate and financials meltdown of 2008 when it was right infront of them.

If they know so much then why are they wasting their talents on predicting these things? They should all be billionares on their options trading.

These analysts don't have any economic sense whatsoever. When placing valuations on companies they are totally ignoring the environment in which the companies have to operate.

What has changed since 2008? Has the United States increased its productive capacity or savings? Absolutely not, all that we have done is spent more borrowed money to get an artificial boost. And done so by having the Fed Fund rate set artificially low to facilitate it.

The monetary policy of the last administration brought us to the collapse of 2008. The monetary policy of the current administration is the same as that of the previous one multiplied by a factor of 5.

Where do you think our current course is going to bring us? And how will any US company fair when we get there? It isn't that far away either.

And what does this have to do with the iPad?
 
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