None of that ranting explains why you think a $300 target is "ambitious" for AAPL by the end of 2010.
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Stock drop = No IPad
- Thread starter PCClone
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None of that ranting explains why you think a $300 target is "ambitious" for AAPL by the end of 2010.
Don't put too much stock in what the analysts say as they didn't have foresight to downgrade the financials before the collapse.
Why didn't they?
Because they didn't take into account the underlying fundamentals of the economy in which the financials were deriving their income from.
You are doing the same with Apple. Apple is trading at roughtly 25 1/2 its earnings. What justifies that? Since it doesn't pay dividends how does anyone actually know what their true earnings are?
To spell it out for you. A good portion of Apples earnings comes from the U.S. consumer. What is going to happen when the U.S. dollar loses 1/2 of its current value and is trading in the 40's?
Realization of inflation in consumer prices. Double digit interest rates to defend the dollar.
At that point your 499.00 iPad is going to cost $900.00 to $1100.00, but more importantly the cost of food and energy is going to go significantly higer as well. Most of the iPads and other products purchased in this country are done so on credit and credit is going to be a lot more expensive to the debter.
People are going to be more concerned about eating food and having heat and lights then purchasing electronic gadgets. At that point all consumer electronics companies who are over exposed to the U.S. consumer will have lower earnings which translate into lower stock prices.
This doesn't even take into account how share holders of any U.S. based company will react once they realize how much their U.S. dollar denominated assets are really worth.
What will be the event that sets the whole thing in motion? A very bad treasurey auction where the buyer of last resort is the Fed with its printing press.
You can't ignore the fundamentals
What does this have to do with the iPad anyways?
What crystal ball? Can't you see that the actions that the U.S. government has taken have put events into to motion that can only result in a currency crisis?
Anyone with a basic understanding of economics can very easily see this.
Could it happen this year? Possibly.
Will it happen within the next 2 1/2 years? Unless the government stops spending $1.60 for every $1.00 that it gets and cuts the size of itself by atleast 65% the answer is absolutely yes.
The analysts that got everything else wrong are still deceminating bad information. They didn't see dot com bust or the real estate bust so how do you expect them to see the currency crisis.
Look at the fundamentals as they only point to 1 thing.
You still can't justify why AAPL is trading at 25 1/2 times its earnings?
You should stick to whatever it is that you are good at and let professionals give investment advice.
What does this have to do with the iPad anyways?
I don't know what it has to do with the iPad, but you are happily posting away on the topic, so why ask that question?
Stick to what I'm good at? Well, considering I've made well into seven figures in my investment in AAPL alone, I think I'm pretty good at investing. And you can't seem to stick with an argument. I should "let professionals give advice"? Would those be the same professionals (analysts) that you've been trashing in this thread, indeed in this very post? Okay.
Could an economic disaster of the type you're getting all Chicken Little over happen this year? Sure it could. And an asteroid that no astronomer saw coming could slam into the Earth. The supervolcano under Yellowstone Park could erupt and destroy most of the Western US and plunge the world into a nuclear winter. Or the global pandemic that some scientists have been predicting for the past decade could finally begin and kill millions as it sweeps the planet. Point being, NO ONE CAN SAY WITH CERTAINTY, so your speculation is ultimately pointless. Thanks, but I think I'll hold on to my Apple stock for the time being, and continue to add to my position on significant pullbacks.
My statements are not speculation, they are based on the fundamentals of our economy which have gotten worse not better.
An economy can not sustain itself based on borrowing and spending. There needs to be production and savings, which we have very little to speak of. Every other country in the history of the world that has had the economic conditions that the United States currently does, had ended in a disaster for their currency.
You still can't justify the 25 1/2 times earnings that AAPL is trading at.
I believe you to be more of a Gambler in the stock market than an investor as you are hoping for appreciation rather than getting dividends for value.
All that I can say about your rantings is that I am glad that you have been lucky so far and that I have never under estimated the luck of the clueless ones in economics.
Spoken like one who is jealous of another's success. I'm sorry you missed the boat on Apple back in the late '90s. If I've indeed been nothing but "lucky" and "clueless" with my investment strategy in AAPL over the past decade, I'll take all of that same luck I can get from this point forward.
And you must be the clueless one here if you believe that my entire portfolio consists of a single holding. Trust me, I'm diversified, and set up quite nicely for an early retirement, thanks to all my "luck". Somehow, I bet you can't say the same with all of your supposed economic book knowledge.
Go long on AAPL. As long as Steve doesn't need another transplant, stock futures are in the $300-400 by 2012.
Oh, haven't you heard the news from the economic experts in this thread? The US dollar will be worthless by then.
Of course, that doesn't matter, as the Mayans have already foretold, the world will end in December 2012.
If we all invested in Apple stock the other day when the stock market crashed we would have had triple the Money back by the end of the day!
We could have all bought iPad 3G 64GBs and gone on holiday somewhere.
Why didn't anyone think of that here!?!?!?
We are all idiots.....
We could have all bought iPad 3G 64GBs and gone on holiday somewhere.
Why didn't anyone think of that here!?!?!?
We are all idiots.....
Technically your statements are speculation. You're using certain economic principles to speculate on a particular outcome. The outcome you describe is not a certainty.
Agreed. It certainly appears that iPad is going to contribute nicely to Apple's revenue. The new iPhone will also include some long-desired features and is likely to sell quite well. This stock has a way to go.
Spoken like one who is jealous of another's success. I'm sorry you missed the boat on Apple back in the late '90s. If I've indeed been nothing but "lucky" and "clueless" with my investment strategy in AAPL over the past decade, I'll take all of that same luck I can get from this point forward.
And you must be the clueless one here if you believe that my entire portfolio consists of a single holding. Trust me, I'm diversified, and set up quite nicely for an early retirement, thanks to all my "luck". Somehow, I bet you can't say the same with all of your supposed economic book knowledge.
What possible reason would I have to be jealous of someone that I don't even know? You are boasting of your investment success but haven't shown anything to back it up. Not that you will or that anyone even cares.
For you to be right and myself to be incorrect one would have to believe that the economic conditions in the United States are better now than they were in 2007. You would also have to believe that the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar will have absolutely no effect on any dollar denominated assest(which include Apple Stock).
If governments could alleviate economic downturns by simply printing money then why would there ever be any recessions.
According to you the best way to financial stability is to quit your job and max out your credit cards and subsequently show the statements to your wife and say "look we are doing great because of all of the borrowed money that I spent".
Your plans of early retirement will not happen if you continue to hold on to your precious U.S. dollar denominated assets.
Do you hear that sound? It is me laughing at you.
Actually not. A good analogy on this would be if your tire is rated a 50lbs max you can still put more air in it and at a certain point it will explode. The point and time that it will explode at vaires depending on temperature and the rate of inflation.
Every country in the history of the world that has done what we are doing to our currency has had a disaster with it.
If the fundamentals of our economy were sound we would be able to allow the market to set short term interest rates instead of keeping them artificially low. We would also have a strong dollar. Remember the dollars low prior to May of 2008 was around 80, it is now trading in the 84 range.
Amoung other things that have happened the Government has trippled the money supply since 2008. The only affect that this will have is a drop in the dollar's purchasing power.
Based on everything that the U.S. government has done the loss of purchasing power of the dollar is a certantiy. What is speculation is the timing of it which no one can know.
WTF are you babbling about now? So because economic conditions in the US are worse now than they were in 2007, that means they can never improve? Wow, I guess you didn't learn much in all those economics courses you seem so proud to have slept through. I'm sorry you missed the boat on the economic growth that preceded the current downturn we are in, but don't project your frustrations onto those of us who managed not only to ride it out, but actually make money in the process. Thank god for all that "luck" us "gamblers" have when we invest, huh?
Proof that you don't have a cogent argument to make here can be found in your absurd "max out your credit cards" tangent. Nowhere did I even mention using credit to live beyond one's means, but you managed to set up a strawman in a desperate attempt to buttress your weak position. Face facts, you lost this debate the second you claimed to have absolute knowledge that the US dollar faces certain collapse. Unless you've got a Delorean parked in your garage that can travel through time when you punch it up to 88mph, you've got no clue what will happen to a system as complex as the global economy in the next few months, to say nothing of the next couple of years. But keep clinging to the foolish notion that you are privy to something the rest of us aren't. Whatever makes you feel superior, I guess.
Do you hear that sound? No, of course you don't...because facepalming is silent.
I am glad that you just made this statement as it proves that you are clueless on this. There was no economic growth that preceded the downturn. Everyting was based on spending borrowed money. When the borrowed money came due the whole thing collapsed.
Economic growth comes from savings and production not from borrowing and consumption. Hopefully you will one day be able to grasp this basic economic concept.
After this I will not bother responding to you in this thread as your quoted statement shows that you are not even qualified to have an opinion on this topic.
I am now officially leaving this thread.
Just in case there was anyone following this thread who was foolish enough to believe that this person actually knew what they were talking about, here are the GDP percentage figures for the United States in the decade preceding 2007 (when this "expert" apparently believes the economy entered a death spiral from which there can be no recovery)
1997: 4.5
1998: 4.4
1999: 4.8
2000: 4.1
2001: 1.1
2002: 1.8
2003: 2.5
2004: 3.6
2005: 3.1
2006: 2.7
2007: 2.1
2008: 0.4
2009: -2.4
See all those numbers without a negative sign in front of them? Those represent the percentage of growth in the US real GDP in that year from the previous year. But according to what someone would have you believe, there wasn't any growth prior to the downturn. Riiiiight.
Economics lesson over...class dismissed.