Tablet Wars: Will iPad remain the leader?

[samcraig]

Well it really depends on how you define leader.

While the iPhone is technically advanced, etc - the market share it has in the cellular phone industry does NOT make it a leader. Nokia is the leader and even RIM/Blackberry currently has double the market share (http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10245339-37.html )

The iPad may or may not follow the same path. Time, not opinion, will be the ultimate arbiter of the facts.

 

[One Love 1867]

The problem the competition will have will be actually grasping the point of what makes the iPad such a good device.

Just look at the early and concept competition. Their spec and hardware sheets read as little more than a checklist of things that the iPad doesn't have. "Look, we support Flash AND we've got 2 USB ports!".

Just like the iPhone, others will chase but few if any will succeed, purely because they'll caught up in the rat race and become too hung up on trying to concentrate on the basic features that the iPad doesn't have, as appose to trying to better the whole experience and infrastructure (which given Apples existing Mac/iTunes eco system, isn't going to happen anytime soon).

People are already talking about "The iPad Killer", a mythical device believed to be the Joo Joo and the HP Slate (which neither, it turns out, are going to be), or maybe even the currently unannounced Microsoft Courier, the same way people are talking about "The iPhone Killer". The iPhone is coming upto it's 4th year of existence and the rest of the industry (RIM aside. The Blackberry is a different beast for a different market) are still scratching their heads and trying to come up with the iPhone killer.

 

[Crackbone]

I don't see how Apple won't be the leader for the foreseeable future.

1. They have significant advantage, first mover advantage. All of the other tablets are just vapor until they are produced and being sold, that's all they are.

2. Right now, Apple is riding a very rare wave of synergy between their product lines, and their recent financial health proves that this is occurring.

3. Marketing - no one is close to Apple in this regard as we all know.

All of this adds up to Apple being the sales leader for sometime. They understand what these tablets are supposed to be and do. Granted, they could do more, but we've seen that tried before, and guess what, it's not really commercially viable.

Keep it Simple Stupid is what Apple does, and does it better than anyone.

 

[NinjaMonkey]

The hardware is mostly irrelevent. Software and content are what matters and right now Apple has a huge lead.

Nerds care about hardware spec sheets not the typical consumer and nerds are not the mass market.

The iPad will dominate for now.

 

[wombat888]

It seems as though many people here only see Google as a reel competitor. I don't know much about their phones, but if they model their tablet after their phones, like Apple did, isn't there a good chance they would pull out in front of the iPad? As it was mentioned above, their phone beat the iPhone by .1. I know it's an extremely small number ahead of the iPhone, but iPhone lost out because of hardware...not software, ease of use or anything else...hardware. So it seems like they could easily parlay that into a well made tablet which could end up outselling the iPad. Also, with many developers making apps for both Apple and Google, what will influence people to buy an iPad over the Google tablet (especially if the Google tablet costs less)?

Lots of what ifs there ... who knows? 1 - Android has not been reconceptualized to work on a tablet, as far as I know. 2 - Apple is just as capable of making good hardware as other companies, and has a good focus on quality of user experience that other companies have not matched yet. 3 - The phone that beat the iPhone by .1 is more expensive upfront than the iPhone (though with a cheaper data plan, so total cost of ownership is lower over two years) and has not sold very well due to its lack of in-store retail presence.

The main strength an Android tablet would have is that it probably wouldn't be "an" Android tablet, it will probably be several or more, with different features and pricepoints.

 

[blackNBUK]

Well it really depends on how you define leader.

While the iPhone is technically advanced, etc - the market share it has in the cellular phone industry does NOT make it a leader. Nokia is the leader and even RIM/Blackberry currently has double the market share (http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10245339-37.html )

The iPad may or may not follow the same path. Time, not opinion, will be the ultimate arbiter of the facts.

I've always been pretty dubious of this statistic. How do they define what is or is not a smartphone? Basing the definition solely on the operating system used is too broad a measure. Nokia make a huge number of Series 60 phones. However a lot of these have small screens and numeric keypads, and personally I wouldn't place these into same category as the iPhone or Android phones.

 

[LadyHoneyBabe]

Lots of what ifs there ... who knows? 1 - Android has not been reconceptualized to work on a tablet, as far as I know. 2 - Apple is just as capable of making good hardware as other companies, and has a good focus on quality of user experience that other companies have not matched yet. 3 - The phone that beat the iPhone by .1 is more expensive upfront than the iPhone (though with a cheaper data plan, so total cost of ownership is lower over two years) and has not sold very well due to its lack of in-store retail presence.

The main strength an Android tablet would have is that it probably wouldn't be "an" Android tablet, it will probably be several or more, with different features and pricepoints.

Yes, a lot of what ifs, but this is what people have come up to me and said/hypothesized. Everyone wants to see an iPad Killer and people I know want to see either Microsoft's or Google's device as the leader (instead of Apple's iPad).

 

[dojoman]

No, Apple won't be a leader as long as they're locking the device down like they are. I really think i love my iPad, but it is limited.

blah blah blah...again with the bitching...lockdown, no multitasking, no flash... it's getting old. The history is repeating again with ipad as it was with 1st gen iphone. If you want a bloated all it-can-do-everything device go out and buy HP Slate and enjoy that Windows 7.

 

[ciaran00]

Wait, what's it competing against?

 

[samcraig]

I've always been pretty dubious of this statistic. How do they define what is or is not a smartphone? Basing the definition solely on the operating system used is too broad a measure. Nokia make a huge number of Series 60 phones. However a lot of these have small screens and numeric keypads, and personally I wouldn't place these into same category as the iPhone or Android phones.

Be as dubious as you want. Even if you negate 30 percent of their phones, they're still the same maybe a little more than the iPhone.

And if you whittle a category down enough, any phone could be the leader. How about all smartphones with over 256 megs of memory? Or how about all smartphones with touchscreens, or etc.

Statistics CAN be used to "prove" anything. As I said - the question is - how do you define "leader"

 

[LadyHoneyBabe]

Wait, what's it competing against?

See my first post. There's a link to an article talking about Tablet Wars.

Statistics CAN be used to "prove" anything. As I said - the question is - how do you define "leader

In this instance, leader is referring to the iPad being in first place; in popularity, sales, customer satisfaction, etc.

 

[blackNBUK]

Be as dubious as you want. Even if you negate 30 percent of their phones, they're still the same maybe a little more than the iPhone.

And if you whittle a category down enough, any phone could be the leader. How about all smartphones with over 256 megs of memory? Or how about all smartphones with touchscreens, or etc.

Statistics CAN be used to "prove" anything. As I said - the question is - how do you define "leader"

This is obviously a difficult question, especially if we leave aside statistics as being flawed measures. To me it comes down to two subjective questions; What do people imagine when you mention smartphone? and What are companies trying to copy? I'd wager that the answer to both of these questions is either iPhone or Android shaped.

I'd also suggest that in a few months time the answer to the same questions in the tablet space will be iPad shaped.

 

[wombat888]

This is becoming a "definition of the word 'is'" type thread. The iPhone is clearly the thought leader in its space. The iPad, I think, will clearly establish itself as the thought leader in its space, for the time being.

In both cases, I foresee a PC/Mac, Coke/Pepsi type option two years from now in which the Android and Apple options will be more or less on par in technology, innovation, market share. And I'm excited to see that unfold.

 

[samcraig]

This is obviously a difficult question, especially if we leave aside statistics as being flawed measures. To me it comes down to two subjective questions; What do people imagine when you mention smartphone? and What are companies trying to copy? I'd wager that the answer to both of these questions is either iPhone or Android shaped.

I'd also suggest that in a few months time the answer to the same questions in the tablet space will be iPad shaped.

I can agree with that. The reason to clarify/define what we're discussing is the basic building block of language and communication. Without a "consensus" on what words mean, you can't have a discussion that truly makes sense to the parties involved. (Can you tell I minored in Speech Comm?).

 

[Bytor65]

Well it really depends on how you define leader.

While the iPhone is technically advanced, etc - the market share it has in the cellular phone industry does NOT make it a leader. Nokia is the leader and even RIM/Blackberry currently has double the market share (http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-10245339-37.html )

The iPad may or may not follow the same path. Time, not opinion, will be the ultimate arbiter of the facts.

iPhone seems to have mindshare leadership, app leadership and mobile internet leadership, and is a considerable success for Apple. But yes it does not have HW marketshare number lead.

iPad OTOH will likely be a market numbers leader, unlike phones where it entered against deeply entrenched competitors like RIM/Nokia, in tablets there was no strong presence by any manufacturer. Apple looks to be successfully moving the market from Niche to mainstream (or at least much larger niche) and is gaining a first mover advantage.

It will take significant HW/SW integration back by marketing power to mitigate Apples advantage. I can see some strong competitors emerging later, but this year Apple will own this market and going forward it can leverage a growing installed base.

 

[samcraig]

iPhone seems to have mindshare leadership, app leadership and mobile internet leadership, and is a considerable success for Apple. But yes it does not have HW marketshare number lead.

iPad OTOH will likely be a market numbers leader, unlike phones where it entered against deeply entrenched competitors like RIM/Nokia, in tablets there was no strong presence by any manufacturer. Apple looks to be successfully moving the market from Niche to mainstream (or at least much larger niche) and is gaining a first mover advantage.

It will take significant HW/SW integration back by marketing power to mitigate Apples advantage. I can see some strong competitors emerging later, but this year Apple will own this market and going forward it can leverage a growing installed base.

agreed

 

[beachnbum]

Also, and basically a 'what is it competing against' answer:

When I see HP message boards clamoring for their orders to ship.
When I see campouts for the Courier.
When I see Best Buy not able to keep the other iPad killer in stock.

That's when I'll believe the iPad has competition.

Besides, the OP used an article from PCWorld? Dubious reference source. imho.

 

[leetleo]

Apple is the leader right now, but that could absolutely change.

At the moment, the iPad has a clear advantage because it pioneered the success of this product genre and controls the narrative regarding what a tablet should be. Right away, any tablet that doesn't have a crisp and sleek form factor with comparable screen quality and battery life will automatically fail, no matter how it performs or operates. However, the iPad is also a lot more vulnerable in its lack of features than the iPhone was. The original iPhone was able to succeed despite a glaring lack of features because its elegant touch interface and fancy UI were peripheral to the fact that it ultimately served its intended purpose: making phone calls. The bells and whistles were obviously the primary draw, but consumers could easily justify the purchase because it served a distinct functional role in their every day lives. With the iPad, the metric of necessity is much more subjective, and despite what some say, consumers do care about features like usb, flash, videochat, printing, multitasking, file storage, being locked into a carrier etc. No, your average consumer won't enumerate these features in a wish-list for their dream gadget, but they recognize what is missing when they realize its gone. The success of the iPad proves that consumers can obviously live without these things, but the competition from a tablet that can do these things and can do it while giving the consumer more freedom has real potential to usurp the iPad.

Additionally, I think a lot of analysts overestimate the value of iTunes and the App store as it relates to Apple sales. Most consumers don't recognize the iTunes store as the end all platform for acquiring content. Many consumers actually dislike iTunes due to the way it restricts your content (cannot share or even play your content through iTunes on other machines) and the various performance issues that plague iTunes outside of OSX. Combine this with the fact that just about every "killer app" has multiple iterations for all the major platforms, and you end up with a reality where the influence of iTunes in terms of drawing in new customers becomes niche at best, negligible at worst.

In the end though, Apple's superior marketing is what continues to propel them ahead of the competition. Even companies like Google with amazing brand recognition and almost universal appeal (you rarely hear of "google haters"), fail to execute successful marketing strategies to compete with Apple. Until this changes, even superior products will have a hard time competing with the Apple brand.

 

[master-ceo]

No, Apple won't be a leader as long as they're locking the device down like they are. I really think i love my iPad, but it is limited.

I totally agree. As the days go by, I hope to see some progression but dunno.
I don't want to JB my iPad, but if its the light at the end of the tunnel, I'm in.

 

[beachnbum]

since been pullled but

Wired caught a Mexican blogger review of HP Slate.

For tablet enthusiasts who want a device that’s not created by Apple, the HP Slate — a tablet with iPad-like styling but running Windows — seems a promising option.

But a Mexican site that played with an early version of the Slate is not impressed. The OS takes too long to load, which can be “annoying,” says Conecti.ca.

Last month, HP released its first video introducing the HP Slate, a tablet that will run Windows 7. The Slate is likely to have a built-in camera, video-recording capability, USB port and a SD card reader — all features pointedly aimed at the iPad, which lacks all four — and will support Adobe Flash. The HP Slate will also include access to Skype, an iTunes-like music store, integration with Flickr and the Firefox browser.

HP hasn’t confirmed pricing or availability for the product. But a leaked company document suggested the Slate could cost $550 or $600 for the 32 GB and 64 GB models, respectively.

HP hasn’t demoed the Slate yet publicly but it has deliberately leaked a few highly edited videos of the device. Conecti.ca confirms most of the specs that have leaked out for the Slate, but says HP’s tablet is more of a competitor for netbooks than the Apple iPad.

The site, which has posted a gallery of photos for the Slate, has one word for it: “meh.



Read More http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/04/leaked-hp-slate-fails-to-impress/#ixzz0llE0suPT

Apparently the site pulled the review with a statement about 'respecting our partner's wishes....more in depth when the product is released.'

Or something like that.

As for jaibreaking, that would seem to remove the engineered-in 'simplicity factor'. If you're going that far, might as well just get an Android/Chrome product. Whenever they go on sale.

 

[/dev/toaster]

As long as its not a Microsoft tablet that becomes the leader, I don't care. I totally love my iPad, yet I would still want to get an Android tablet as well. Of course, depending on how good it is.

There is room for more then 1 tablet, and that is good.

 

[HiRez]

The iPad may be limited, but there is one equation they got absolutely right:

Battery life vs. (weight + speed + screen quality + heat production)

I don't think any other manufacturer is going to be able to come close to that anytime soon. You can stick a giant battery in a tablet, but no one will want to carry it around. You can make something fast, but the battery life will suck and it will get hot, or have fans and vents. Add to that the high quality of Apple's built-in apps, unmatched touch responsiveness (iPhone clones still can't get this right) the huge App Store, and reasonably-priced hardware (seen any other full-function tablets announced for under $500?), and I think the iPad will be on top for quite some time.

 

[santaliqueur]

Tablets aren't really about hardware. Software will drive them. Nothing will come close to offering what the iPad will in that department regardless if it has better specs on paper.

This is it. Since Apple makes the hardware and software, the iPad will remain the leader. Apart from that, we are looking at hardware with faster specs and an OS that was not designed for mobile use. It's up to Microsoft to conquer the iPad, not the hardware companies.

The hardware is transparent, it doesn't REALLY matter what the hardware is. The iPad is a sleek little machine of course, but if it was twice as thick, I wouldn't care. The software is where the iPad shines, and no amount of processing power will threaten the superior user experience the iPad can deliver.

 

[samcraig]

This is it. Since Apple makes the hardware and software, the iPad will remain the leader. Apart from that, we are looking at hardware with faster specs and an OS that was not designed for mobile use. It's up to Microsoft to conquer the iPad, not the hardware companies.

The hardware is transparent, it doesn't REALLY matter what the hardware is. The iPad is a sleek little machine of course, but if it was twice as thick, I wouldn't care. The software is where the iPad shines, and no amount of processing power will threaten the superior user experience the iPad can deliver.

I agree about software being the major contributor - but not the only. People will want facing cameras and/or a USB port to print/use external storage. Not all people - but enough to make hardware at least somewhat of an issue.

On the software front - if Apple has any intention of continuing the idea that the iPad can be used for productivity - they have some work cut out for them with future revisions of Pages, Numbers and Keynote specifically. Because while they may be OK for a casual user - they are in no way ready for prime-time for an enterprise user.

 

[GamecockMac]

I assume all of you who are floating the idea of an Android tablet being the likeliest "iPad Killer" are aware of Google's current policy concerning their mobile OS?

If a device does not make cellular calls, it does not get access to Android Market. I would think that policy is either going to have to change, or it will severely limit the usefulness of Android tablets.