The future death of Apple?

[TracerAnalog]

No new insights her, just a twist on the same old ‘Apple is doomed’ trope based on an chewed out narrative that Apple ‘cannot innovate’ anymore now that Steve Jobs is gone. Since when do companies have to launch moonshots every so many years? That's simply unrealistic.

 

[XboxEvolved]

Interesting that the OP has been an Apple fan since the first "McIntosh" while if that were true would have known that the Macintosh was on its deathbed in the mid-90s and yet here we are. The more likely scenario and the one that is already happening is it feels less like a secret magical club and more like a soulless company, which at the same time has made it stronger than its once arch-rival Microsoft, and the ability to also take on dozens of other competitors in several other areas when there was a time it couldn't even properly compete in one.

 

[Ethosik]

"Not innovating anymore" Apple Silicon processors? WHO is innovating anymore in IT? Foldable phones? I find those a gimmick.

 

[AlixSPQR]

Apple will never die.

While we all feel Steve's loss in product innovation, the company has never been stronger and healthier than it is today. Nobody else can do what Apple does.

Well, Nokia's mobile division dominated the mobile phone market greatly until Apple came along with its iPhone, and subsequently Google with its Android.
Then Nokia's mobile division died within seven years.
So we have seen tech giants topple over before. But the OP's predicition isn't based on anything else than that we don't know what the future will bring.

 

[AlixSPQR]

"Not innovating anymore" Apple Silicon processors?

Since they are based on ARM (a proprietary architecture not owned by Apple) they are not innovations, more like evolutions, albeit hugely so.

 

[leman]

Don't share the sentiment from in the article. In the last two years Apple has been innovating like crazy in many key areas. Just few notable achievements:

- they became an undisputed leader in advanced semiconductor design, being the first company to ship commercial high-performance MCM solution (M1 Ultra) for personal computing
- the first company to use low-power high-bandwidth memory in personal PCs
- the first company to ship miniLED displays in bulk
- cleaned up their industrial design team, streamlining and improving the core products
- major innovations in spatial audio processing
- major software innovations such as state-of the art async runtime bundled with the OS and a modern declarative UI framework
- state of the art GPU APIs with feature availability and ergonomic surpassing DirectX 12 and Vulkan

One can of course look at their involvement in crappy TV series and ask what is all that about, but diversification is a valid strategy and it's not like it's harming their technology business. There are obviously challenges ahead, like the governments all over the world implementing anti-gatekeeping initiatives and Intel/AMD/Nvidia picking up the pace on their completive offerings, but nobody said that it's going to be trivially easy. The next years will be very important for Apple and should show whether they can execute their plan or whether they are indeed running out of steam.

 

[leman]

Since they are based on ARM (a proprietary architecture not owned by Apple) they are not innovations, more like evolutions, albeit hugely so.

Only the instruction set is owned by ARM (and there is evidence that it was co-developed together with Apple). The hardware itself is entirely Apple's in-house design. This is a common misconception, but Apple Silicon does not use hardware developed by ARM (with the exception of some low-key coprocessors where they do use older IP from ARM holdings).

 

[Miha_v]

I'm pretty sure 10 years ago many predicted, Apple would not exist today anymore.
And yet, they're stronger then ever.

Don't get me wrong, Cook has stepped in large shoes and the persona of Steve Jobs is unmatched (I don't even watch Apple events anymore). But I think he is doing a really good job. Apple silicon was a great (though risky) decision, abundance of options for Pro users again, laptops are being nicely improved and selling like hot cakes. Smartphone market is now super saturated though, but they are still doing good. And regarding the innovation; Apple car project is deep in the works, so is the upcoming AR/VR device. These things could be absolutely huge in the near future.

for a little bit of comparison:
Anybody following AAA gaming scene might remember, how often new Grand Theft Auto games were being released 20 years ago; every two years a new game. These days, it takes them (Rockstar games) up to 8 years+ to deliver a new GTA game. Why? because they focus so much on quality and they want to prevail in the harsh market. Delivering a nicely polished innovation these days is harder then it was decades ago, too.

Apple is trying to make things great, that's why "Apple car" and similar projects are taking such a long time.

---

Will Apple exist in 20, 50 years? Nobody knows. But even if they won't, it wouldn't take away from the shine.

 

[bwillwall]

People have been predicting the death of Apple for quite some time. I think Apple will continue to be around "forever", but if they will keep their magic is up to those who will run the company. Apple has always been an overpriced company that also hilights true artistic innovation. As long as they keep making real innovative things that great people are dreaming up, I think the magic will live as long as they allow. But if they turn into a soulless megacorp that never tries to do anything unique or cool, or uses shady practices to try to monopolize i.e. Microsoft style, that could be the real death of Apple someday. So far I'm not seeing it in the pipeline. Apple is as rich, as loved, and as inspirational as ever and then some.

 

[Bug-Creator]

and now they’ve lost Jony Ive, who left the company “after years of frustration, seeing the company migrate from a design-centric entity to one that was more utilitarian.”

The idea that one is good and should always trump the other (bad) one is just stupid. You always need a compromise and Ive getting his way all the time was what brought us laptops with limited ports and broken KBDs that would overheat in an instance.

During the last 11 years, Tim Cook only showed us that he’s able to preserve and multiply Steve-era pearls. He never introduced anything truly new,

O.k. but what "truly new" stuff did come under Steve's 2nd reign? Colorful computers existed long before, MP3 player were plentiful and smartphones with touch interface also weren't unheard of. And one could argue that the Newton (from the no-Jobs era) and other PDAs were kinda like premature iPads.

Taking existing tech and transforming into (easy) useable products has been Apple's game ever since the Apple_II and I don't think that has changed that much under Cook.

ClickBait->Trashcan

 

[bwillwall]

The idea that one is good and should always trump the other (bad) one is just stupid. You always need a compromise and Ive getting his way all the time was what brought us laptops with limited ports and broken KBDs that would overheat in an instance.



O.k. but what "truly new" stuff did come under Steve's 2nd reign? Colorful computers existed long before, MP3 player were plentiful and smartphones with touch interface also weren't unheard of. And one could argue that the Newton (from the no-Jobs era) and other PDAs were kinda like premature iPads.

Taking existing tech and transforming into (easy) useable products has been Apple's game ever since the Apple_II and I don't think that has changed that much under Cook.

ClickBait->Trashcan

100% on everything. We all know why Ive was upset. He seems to demand that every product release be thinner than the one before it no matter the compromises, and when Apple finally stopped doing that the products got significantly better and more reliable. Apple isn't about one person's perfect company. I happened to re-watch the iPhone 5S/5C launch earlier, and I was amazed that every product announcement was the Jony Ive show. A super dramatic video where he uses eccentric language to introduce every fragile and beautiful element of design. At a certain point it's like.. we get it.. you're fancy and Apple. I'm glad they've changed direction in the ways they have. Apple is still high quality but they're not trying to make elitist devices like solid gold watches, they're making real computers again. All of that said, I was sad to see Jony stop working with Apple. I think his designs are quite iconic and good, and I do worry that without his involvement we could lose some touch he's had for decades.

 

[BellSystem]

Apple relies on consumers. Consumers are irrational and cling to trends. All it will take to topple Apple is someone figuring out the next phase of mobile before them and creating a killer product or killer product/app combo that consumers will flock to. You are really nieve if you think Apple will never decline. Nobody stays on top forever and it doesn't take much to take down an empire. The only company with enough resources to really damage them is Samsung. But I bet the fall will come from some small time player that creates the next must have item. As Consumers move away from desktop computers over the next 10 years, Apples eco system becomes less important. It's gonna happen... it's just a question of how and when.

 

[AlixSPQR]

Only the instruction set is owned by ARM (and there is evidence that it was co-developed together with Apple). The hardware itself is entirely Apple's in-house design. This is a common misconception, but Apple Silicon does not use hardware developed by ARM (with the exception of some low-key coprocessors where they do use older IP from ARM holdings).

Thank you for supporting my statement (although I guess you and other loyals think otherwise). I did not claim that ARM has developed Apple's hardware, no need to throw in that particular straw man.

 

[leman]

Thank you for supporting my statement (although I guess you and other loyals think otherwise). I did not claim that ARM has developed Apple's hardware, no need to throw in that particular straw man.

Sorry if I misunderstood your statement. I din't know how to interpret it any other way. But I suppose it all depends on what one considers "innovation" and what "evolution". From where I stand, the hardware implementation (CPU proper) and the software compatibility contract (ARM instruction set) are two different things, and since Apple's hardware is unique and ahead of competition (including ARM) by years, they quality as true innovations in my book.

 

[orionquest]

Pretty much. Steve's ideal computer was the compact Macs, for heavens sake - largely sealed boxes with no expansion.

You mean the iPhone, Apple's true vision of a computer. No expansion, AIO, 1 button, or no button now. No hardware to upgrade, unless you buy new.

 

[Feyl]

I'm not sure if Apple will die in 20 years or so, but it's very true that they're milking old ideas. It works with people that didn't experience Apple in it's golden age, but what will happen after years of this cycle of using the same thing over and over again. The newcomers to the brand will recognize it and get tired of this eventually too, especially if competitors are better and better every year.

Recently, I finally went for it and tried a flagship Android phone and I almost loved it. The design and build quality was excellent, the features were great and I loved how customisable it was. Unfourtunately the device was not nearly as smooth as Apple, so I returned it. But I'm tired of using the same old thing for so many years.

I feel that Apple needs to do much better, especially on the software side of things across their whole product categories. They should bring a whole new look and feel to their systems and work out the bugs. I love music, I pay for Apple Music and the Mac app beachballs multiple times each and every day. That's not acceptable for a company that's known for their love of music and revolutionizing the industry with iTunes. If I was Tim Cook I'd be very ashamed that the biggest company in the world can't make a great music app.

 

[entropi]

As Consumers move away from desktop computers over the next 10 years, Apples eco system becomes less important.

I don't think so, lot's of consumers today almost never use desktop computers for sure. The Apple eco system are already - and always will be, like ourselves - in transition to other platforms and tools that fits present and future needs.

 

[AlixSPQR]

Sorry if I misunderstood your statement. I din't know how to interpret it any other way. But I suppose it all depends on what one considers "innovation" and what "evolution". From where I stand, the hardware implementation (CPU proper) and the software compatibility contract (ARM instruction set) are two different things, and since Apple's hardware is unique and ahead of competition (including ARM) by years, they quality as true innovations in my book.

Apple Silicon products simply wouldn't work, none of them would, without ARM's proprietary architecture. How is that innovative? But feel free to disagree.
There are rumours that indicate that Apple are trying to move away from ARM, in order to cut costs. So we shall see.

 

[leman]

Apple Silicon products simply wouldn't work, none of them would, without ARM's proprietary architeture. How is that innovative? But feel free to disagree.

What exactly do you mean by “architecture”? Apple is licensing the rights to implement ARM’s proprietary software contract, that’s about it. I mean, would you say E-cars are not innovative just because they drive on the same roads and are subject to same legal regulations as petrol cars?

In other words: Apple is building chips that implement a normative standard owned by ARM. They do not actually use any ARN-developed technology (and by technology I mean hardware).

There are rumours that indicate that Apple are trying to move away from ARM, in order to cut costs. So we shall see.

Apple has an architectural license, they don’t have to pay ARM any royalties. The article you quote is highly misleading. This is based on a single job post related to a vector coprocessor. There is no evidence whatsoever that Apple is looking to switch from ARM. I mean, they co-founded ARM and were involved in developing ARM64. There is no advantage for them in switching away. Neither economical nor other.

 

[Bug-Creator]

This is based on a single job post related to a vector coprocessor.

Which would suggest that they just want to add/improve their SoC in that regard. Apple has already added lots of stuff that wasn't part of the ARM spec (some of it even got included into it later).

Fully switching everything (from Mac to Watch, from iPhone to ATV) to another ISA would be extremely costly and doing it just for some parts of the eco system would be just plain stupid.

But I'm also sure Apple still has (and maintains to have) people fluent in AMD64 and whatever ISA they think might get relevant some day.

 

[leman]

Which would suggest that they just want to add/improve their SoC in that regard. Apple has already added lots of stuff that wasn't part of the ARM spec (some of it even got included into it later).

Absolutely. Apple uses a bunch of coprocessors in their SOCs anyway, some of which use the ARM standard, some of which use their custom in-house ISA (AMX, GPU, NPU and others), and some using very old IP like Samsung controllers as well as some 15-year old cores from P. A. Semi (https://asahilinux.org/2021/03/progress-report-january-february-2021/)

 

[BigMcGuire]

Those of us who have been around awhile have seen articles like this over the last 10 years. I've even had some really smart people tell me that Apple was dying and wouldn't be able to recover (3-4 years ago).

I can't say I agree with the conclusion in the article that Cook has only been able to push along what Steve Jobs created. I guess I could see how some would think so, ... I guess?

My response: I'm not married to Apple. I give my $ to the company that gives me what I want the most and right now that's Apple. I love my M1 Max MBP and I've never owned a better computer in my life. My iPhone and watch is amazing and does everything I want and more. The moment something comes along that is as well built, with a stable ecosystem I'll consider it. Till then, Apple has my business. Competition is a must for progress so I root Google, Samsung, and all the others and regularly give their products a try so I am informed.

Apple doomed? Everyone is entitled to their opinion but I believe this to be a hard sell today. I bought my first MBA in 2011 and moved my personal computing to Apple in 2015. I've read quite a few books on Steve Jobs and while he was a visionary he wasn't perfect. Most of the people (developers, engineers) who made Apple back in the day no longer work for the company and yet here it is.

 

[aevan]

Since they are based on ARM (a proprietary architecture not owned by Apple) they are not innovations, more like evolutions, albeit hugely so.

I could agree with this assessment, but if that is how we define innovation (inventing something completely new, from scratch) - I would say there won't be a lot of innovation in the world of computers in the future (it will happen on occasion, but rarely) and I would also add that this is fine. We don't need innovation, we need refinement and synergy of technology to make our lives better and allow us to do our best work.

Though, I would say that a lot of ML things that several top tech companies are doing are quite innovative. And I would also say Apple comes up with some very nice new designs, refinements, ideas and innovations when it comes to individual technologies and solutions. It's just that people expect some mythical new device that we've never seen before. And we don't really need that (unless someone has a really great idea, sure, but tech companies shouldn't strive for "new", rather for "great").

The only difference between old and new Apple is that old Apple had a master showman presenter (as good as Craig is, current Apple just can't create that level of "reality distortion field" like Steve did). But in terms of actual design and innovation, I'd say Apple is as good as ever, if not better.

 

[maxoakland]

Meh I didn't read the article, or much of this thread. Apple has been pretty much the same company it always was since almost the beginning. A well marketed computer maker, selling you on "innovation" and using software as a great sales tool.
But Apple today is wildly more success then their previous self.
What will define Apple going forward are the new products they create. The ARM Mac's don't seem like a brand new product just a extension of what exsists. I'm speaking of a brand new product/device/category will be the true test if they still got it without the shadow of Steve Jobs.

That’s basically the entire premise of the article

 

[Ethosik]

What exactly do you mean by “architecture”? Apple is licensing the rights to implement ARM’s proprietary software contract, that’s about it. I mean, would you say E-cars are not innovative just because they drive on the same roads and are subject to same legal regulations as petrol cars?

In other words: Apple is building chips that implement a normative standard owned by ARM. They do not actually use any ARN-developed technology (and by technology I mean hardware).



Apple has an architectural license, they don’t have to pay ARM any royalties. The article you quote is highly misleading. This is based on a single job post related to a vector coprocessor. There is no evidence whatsoever that Apple is looking to switch from ARM. I mean, they co-founded ARM and were involved in developing ARM64. There is no advantage for them in switching away. Neither economical nor other.

Yep I agree. Like I said before, name one truly innovative thing in IT in years. Foldable phones? Seems like an evolution of the Nintendo DS and other dual screen devices. VR? Been around for a while too.

I find Apple Silicon innovative. They only got the instruction set from ARM. But Apple themselves added Neural Engines, E-cores/P-Cores, a lot of video encodes/decoders, interconnect so two M1 Max can be slapped together, essentially get the performance of 32 memory channels and more.