The Gurman WWDC prediction problem

[Newgoblin49]

Gurman has said that the M3 updates are done for now and that we are going to go directly to the M4. This seems a little bit puzzling to me because in the last WWDC and the one before that we had Mac hardware announcements. The only exception over here was the one in 2021 but that year had delays across the board because of Covid.

I really can’t see Gurmans predictions coming true when there were other reports that came out saying that the Mac studio / Pro will have updates in the mid of this year

 

[Chuckeee]

No problem, wait two weeks and Gurman will comes out with a whole new set of predictions.

 

[MayaUser]

He is speaking of the last devices like mac mini, mac studio and mac pro that will go directly to M4 and he is right,its too late to be updated with the M3 family. At WWDC we not always get hardware, so the next will be fall events, so M4 will be a fall thing
The only thing that can be announced with M4, can be a sneak peek of the Mac Pro that will be released late 2024
So again, no more M3 starting with WWDC...the only devices that will still get M3 will be those from 7th May event

 

[multimania]

Last year he said Apple wasn’t planning to upgrade the Mac Studio to M2. So off I went and bought one. 6 weeks later or so and, out came the M2 Studios… We live and learn.

 

[Newgoblin49]

Last year he said Apple wasn’t planning to upgrade the Mac Studio to M2. So off I went and bought one. 6 weeks later or so and, out came the M2 Studios… We live and learn.

Let’s see if history repeats itself this time

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

They can't do an entire WWDC just on software updates, that would of course not be unheard of, but it would really lower publicity, which Apple loves.

I expect M3 Studios and Pros, and a HomePod line overhaul.

 

[MayaUser]

They can't do an entire WWDC just on software updates, that would of course not be unheard of, but it would really lower publicity, which Apple loves.

I expect M3 Studios and Pros, and a HomePod line overhaul.

We will see..but M3 Mac Pros in mid 2024? Out of the question

 

[Newgoblin49]

We will see..but M3 Mac Pros in mid 2024? Out of the question

The question I’m posing isn’t an M3 or M4.

he’s saying that the M3 is done for now and that we will get M4 starting later this year implying no hardware announcements in WWDC, that doesn’t make sense to me since WWDC traditionally had some Mac hardware announcement or the other. This is a year where we have had very few Mac announcements so far , nothing at WWDC makes no sense

 

[MayaUser]

The question I’m posing isn’t an M3 or M4.

he’s saying that the M3 is done for now and that we will get M4 starting later this year implying no hardware announcements in WWDC, that doesn’t make sense to me since WWDC traditionally had some Mac hardware announcement or the other. This is a year where we have had very few Mac announcements so far , nothing at WWDC makes no sense

the only hardware can we get at WWDC is just a sneak peak for the late 2024 Mac Pro
Why Apple make an ipad digital event with just 1 month ahead of WWDC then?!
So expect almost no hardware at WWDC, WWDC is almost about dev and OS, and probably about that vision pro OS that doesnt do well so they need some improvements and push for dev to jump on

 

[casperes1996]

We will see..but M3 Mac Pros in mid 2024? Out of the question

Why do you think so? M3 Ultra in mid-2024 is not at all threatened by M4 base-chips coming in November. Very different categories of chips.
Heck, M2 Ultra was released June 2023 and November 2023 introduced M3, M3 Pro and M3 Max

 

[MayaUser]

Why do you think so? M3 Ultra in mid-2024 is not at all threatened by M4 base-chips coming in November. Very different categories of chips.
Heck, M2 Ultra was released June 2023 and November 2023 introduced M3, M3 Pro and M3 Max

M2 Ultra was based on 2x M2 Max ..this isnt the case anymore
1)M3 ultra cannot be done since the M3 Max doesnt have the physical link(ultrafusion) for double stack
2)For Apple to go with a total different standalone M3 Ultra N3B is far more expensive than make the M4 N3E that is cheaper, better with better yields

 

[Newgoblin49]

the only hardware can we get at WWDC is just a sneak peak for the late 2024 Mac Pro
Why Apple make an ipad digital event with just 1 month ahead of WWDC then?!
So expect almost no hardware at WWDC, WWDC is almost about dev and OS, and probably about that vision pro OS that doesnt do well so they need some improvements and push for dev to jump on

There’s no way Apple is doing some sneak peak for a small upgrade like that , they either release it or they don’t . The only possibility is that they’ll make the rumoured M Extreme chip

 

[MayaUser]

There’s no way Apple is doing some sneak peak for a small upgrade like that , they either release it or they don’t . The only possibility is that they’ll make the rumoured M Extreme chip

How do you know is a small upgrade? Mac Pro can be redeisng since it doesnt need that large space anymore
Standalone highest M4 can be a big deal
Apple did this before many times with Mac Pro

 

[Newgoblin49]

How do you know is a small upgrade? Mac Pro can be redeisng since it doesnt need that large space anymore
Standalone highest M4 can be a big deal
Apple did this before many times with Mac Pro

I don’t understand where this conversation is spiraling off to , all I’m saying is expect a hardware announcement of some sort , be it M3 or M4 regardless

 

[MayaUser]

I don’t understand where this conversation is spiraling off to , all I’m saying is expect a hardware announcement of some sort , be it M3 or M4 regardless

And i was saying there is no way for hardware at WWDC...other than small changes for Mac Pro for developers

 

[MayaUser]

If apple wanted some sort of hardware at wwdc they didnt make the effort to make an ipad event with just few weeks earlier

 

[casperes1996]

M2 Ultra was based on 2x M2 Max ..this isnt the case anymore
1)M3 ultra cannot be done since the M3 Max doesnt have the physical link(ultrafusion) for double stack
2)For Apple to go with a total different standalone M3 Ultra N3B is far more expensive than make the M4 N3E that is cheaper, better with better yields

Both fair points.

I think there's a decent chance you're correct, but I still see the possibility that something could happen.
Like a different type of chip "fusion" that doesn't require the M3 Max die to have the fusion bridge. Or even a set of M3 Ultra and M3 Extreme where the Ultra is completely unique and the Extreme is a fusion of two of them. I do see the N3B issue with that, but volume for these chips would be low anyway and could be priced accordingly but I don't know. I just also find it strange if we get M4 Maxes out while Studio and Pro are still on M2 Ultra, and M4 Maxes could likely outperform the M2 Ultra in almost every metric

 

[casperes1996]

If apple wanted some sort of hardware at wwdc they didnt make the effort to make an ipad event with just few weeks earlier

Unless WWDC was already getting too long with all the software and Mac hardware, so there wasn't enough time at the event to also talk iPad hardware. In fact I see the iPad event as reasoning for why we might see Mac hardware, not the other way around - If there was only software on the programme, then there could be time enough to also talk iPad hardware, but that time is then taken over by Mac announcements.

But who knows. We have more software platforms than ever to go over as well.
macOS 15 (Redwood, please),
iOS 18/iPadOS 18,
visionOS 2,
watchOS 11,
tvOS 18,

All that could easily take up a fair bit of time, especially if the iOS 18 stuff is going to be pumped up as much as rumours suggest.

 

[MayaUser]

Yep, so Apple can go more than 1 hour event just pure on OS's

 

[Newgoblin49]

T

If apple wanted some sort of hardware at wwdc they didnt make the effort to make an ipad event with just few weeks earlier

The iPad event was delayed because of the issues they had with the pannel , that’s all well documented .

You’re talking as if it’s unusual for Apple to have any hardware at WWDC which is not at all true , it’s quite the opposite

 

[MayaUser]

T

The iPad event was delayed because of the issues they had with the pannel , that’s all well documented .

You’re talking as if it’s unusual for Apple to have any hardware at WWDC which is not at all true , it’s quite the opposite

Apple could save a lot of money and delay it again by some weeks and present the ipads at WWDC after ipadOS and no need for digital ipad event
I dont know what hardware you think they can present
im not talking that hardware its unusual, i think you miss-understood me, im talking about this WWDC 2024 and presented all the reasons why. I never speak in general WWDC but this one since the topic is about WWDC 2024

 

[MayaUser]

Since people from here seems they are talking about not knowing about the M3/M4 family here it goes 101
For WWDC only mac studio and mac pro can be upgraded with M4 since the rest are already done but 1% chance
iphones apple watch macbook pro are for fall release there is no doubt about it
ipads gets upgraded in few days
1)So why no M3 at WWDC
M3 was rushed based on low yields N3B, Mac Studio and Mac pro needs something that marketing called M3 Ultra
M3 ultra should be made from M3 Max
M3 Max has no more connection so M3 Ultra like M1/M2 ultra were made is impossible and was a decision Apple made at least 1 year ago
M3 Ultra as an standalone SoC just for Mac Studio and Mac Pro with the cost and so bad yields...its way too expensive not to wait more 5-6 months until fall 2024 until M4( M4 has a lot better yields, its a better node architecture, and it is cheaper)
2)Why no M4 at WWDC
Because like in the past, M4 will be based on the N3E
And first devices based on new architecture will always be the iphones, and the iphones will not be part of WWDC

The only way i see small chances for some hardware presented is:
1) a sneak peek of a brand new Mac Pro with an upcoming M4 Ultra/extreme that will be released to the customers in the fall
2) Mac Mini with m3/m3 pro
Thats all, hope this clarify everything so your hopes are not high

 

[mr_roboto]

M2 Ultra was based on 2x M2 Max ..this isnt the case anymore
1)M3 ultra cannot be done since the M3 Max doesnt have the physical link(ultrafusion) for double stack
2)For Apple to go with a total different standalone M3 Ultra N3B is far more expensive than make the M4 N3E that is cheaper, better with better yields

#1 does not have anything to do with whether Apple plans to release a M3 Ultra at WWDC.

#2 is you speculating from no evidence about what Apple chose to do.

I would like to point out that unlike M1/M2 Pro, M3 Pro is not a cropped version of M3 Max. Why are you completely ignoring the possibility that Apple also chose to tape out a new Ultra-only die in the M3 generation?

 

[DHagan4755]

We've had a few WWDC's sans hardware & it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case this year.

 

[Chuckeee]

WWDC could be just a massive iPad event?