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The Gurman WWDC prediction problem
- Thread starter Newgoblin49
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here we all speculating..everybody knows that
but 1+ how expensive it to do an standalone M3 ultra just for 2 devices that sells to a niche users has everything to do with Apple. Money is nr1 for apple and the last decade prove that. So M3 ultra will not be a part of WWDC, M3 ULTRA is skipped for mac studio and mac pro like M2 (an less expensive SoC) was skipped from imac for example
M2 Pro is less expensive and a lot of people buys it
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If I was a betting man though...
It seems pretty clear that the May event will have something to do with devices that use the Apple Pencil 🤷🏼♂️
Yes. I mean in the end I wasn't too unhappy. I mean I could have done with the extra power (I always can) but the M1 Max has been solid as a rock and silent (I've heard M2s aren't always) so...
It'll be interesting to see for sure this time around.
On the other hand, the shareholders are very much hoping Apple spends as much time as possible on “AI”.
And it is absolutely true that Apple has a full six different operating systems to talk about now.
Plus they scheduled a hardware event for the month before WWDC.
So I think it actually is quite likely that Apple announces all the new hardware they’ve got in May, before turning their focus entirely to software at WWDC.
Assuming iOS 18 gets 30 minutes, and the other operating systems (iPadOS 18, macOS 15, tvOS 18, watchOS 11, visionOS 2.0 + any audioOS/AirPods improvements) get 15 to 20 minutes each, that’s a two hour presentation right there.
It is absolutely possible that Apple introduces new Mac desktops at WWDC.
Unlikely but possible.
It's the WWDC - the purpose of the event was never intended to be hardware, so what we'll see is the usual previews of the next macOS/iOS/WatchOS/iPadOS/HomePodOS/AppleTVOS/EverythingJunkOS and some software news for the AVP, a bunch of creep in services and integrations, and some other things that are for developers to get excited about but the rest of us to be yawning over. Not to mention the big wide world of AI, which it appears people can blather-on about for hours. And that's not even dipping a toe into how much Apple have spent a lot of time reinventing themselves as a business concerned with selling services.
I think they could manage a whole WWDC without new hardware.
It was Steve many years ago who clearly wanted to throw a bit of new hardware in to keep us interested, but whatever hardware we might get will likely be pretty minor. I'd have guessed the new Mac Pro, but if that's pushed back, probably M3-bumped stuff instead. Or pre-release details of the M4 models, but I'd doubt that.
I know, an Apple bicycle. It'll go anywhere you want as long as you charge it via iCloud, and steer it via FaceTime. But oh, those HomePod Mobiles dangling from the handlebars will sound fantastic as long as you've subscribed to Apple Music's mobile tier.
I think they could manage a whole WWDC without new hardware.
It was Steve many years ago who clearly wanted to throw a bit of new hardware in to keep us interested, but whatever hardware we might get will likely be pretty minor. I'd have guessed the new Mac Pro, but if that's pushed back, probably M3-bumped stuff instead. Or pre-release details of the M4 models, but I'd doubt that.
I know, an Apple bicycle. It'll go anywhere you want as long as you charge it via iCloud, and steer it via FaceTime. But oh, those HomePod Mobiles dangling from the handlebars will sound fantastic as long as you've subscribed to Apple Music's mobile tier.
WWDC is a software event. Sometimes it has some hardware to go along with it, sometimes it doesn't. This year looks like it won't. Why announce iPads Pro a month before WWDC if WWDC had room for a hardware announcement?
What is this even supposed to mean?
WWDC has never specifically been about software or hardware.
It’s usually mostly about software, sometimes with some hardware announcements, and sometimes with none.
That has been the case since the 80s.
Under Steve, some years there would be hardware other years there wouldn’t. The same remains true under Cook.
Bingo. Apple's software is what needs the attention right now. Another iteration of M-series hardware is not news. Apple actually making a meaningful leap in what you can do with the existing hardware is what everyone is waiting for.
You're very much mistaken. Shareholders are looking exclusively at what Apple has next in the software space, specifically AI. No one is hard up for another iterative M-series chip update.
Apologies, clumsy language.
The first WWDC was 1983 - and primarily focused on Apple Basic. The conference was specifically intended for software developers to learn and experiment with Apple products and software.
It wasn't until after Jobs had returned to Apple and got the company back on financially stable foundations that hardware product announcements became part of it. 2002 I think. Wikipedia carries a breakdown of what each event has contained at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_Developers_Conference but the root purpose of WWDC is software, and its format (other than the keynote itself) is heavily biased to that purpose.
Apple have to be selling almost no Mac Studios or Mac Pros now as they are still on M2.
I’ve been waiting what seems like ages to buy an M3 based Mac Studio and an M3 based Mac Mini.
As for AI, aren’t the rumors saying the M4 Macs will be the AI focused Macs? (bigger Neural Engine?)
I can see a Mac Studio getting M3 Max and optionally a new M3 Ultra that doesn’t use an interconnect/ultrafusion.
I can see a Mac Pro getting M3 Ultra and optionally an M3 Extreme that does use an interconnect/ultrafusion (2x M3 Ultras).
I’d rather we get those sooner than have to wait longer for M4 based options.
I’ve been waiting what seems like ages to buy an M3 based Mac Studio and an M3 based Mac Mini.
As for AI, aren’t the rumors saying the M4 Macs will be the AI focused Macs? (bigger Neural Engine?)
I can see a Mac Studio getting M3 Max and optionally a new M3 Ultra that doesn’t use an interconnect/ultrafusion.
I can see a Mac Pro getting M3 Ultra and optionally an M3 Extreme that does use an interconnect/ultrafusion (2x M3 Ultras).
I’d rather we get those sooner than have to wait longer for M4 based options.
Mark Gurman is a clairvoyant, a fortune teller with an infinite crystal ball. And if you doubt him, then you just haven't understood his brilliant words.
Seriously, he's a chatterbox who comes up with something new every week and is therefore statistically correct from time to time.
You can tell how little knowledge the full-time journalist(!) Mark Gurman has by his "small Mac Pro" prediction. To this day, neither he nor his fans realise that the Mac Studio is the small Mac Pro that was rumoured years ago.
So even putting rumour and fact together like 1 and 1 is not something Gurman should be expected to do.
Apart from that, it remains that his fans only look at the correct predictions and ignore the majority of nonsense.
But he's always good for clicks. After all, you can generate headlines from his coffee grounds reading. What more could a media portal want?
Seriously, he's a chatterbox who comes up with something new every week and is therefore statistically correct from time to time.
You can tell how little knowledge the full-time journalist(!) Mark Gurman has by his "small Mac Pro" prediction. To this day, neither he nor his fans realise that the Mac Studio is the small Mac Pro that was rumoured years ago.
So even putting rumour and fact together like 1 and 1 is not something Gurman should be expected to do.
Apart from that, it remains that his fans only look at the correct predictions and ignore the majority of nonsense.
But he's always good for clicks. After all, you can generate headlines from his coffee grounds reading. What more could a media portal want?
I think we agree that WWDC is *mostly* about software yes, but there have been plenty of years where hardware is at the forefront. And years were software took a complete backseat.
But back to the original point, Apple debuted hardware at the equivalent of their developers conferences throughout the 80s, that was not new to Steve’s return.
I was in the same boat recently where in I held off a bit before buying the Mac mini M2 Pro but what happened was that mark said that the M3 Pro Mac Mini is a “sure thing” so I decided to wait.
now so much time has passed and Mark now says that M3 won’t happen so I feel a bit cheated since I have waited so long it doesn’t make sense to buy the older product which is likely in it’s
last stage , outdated and is being sold at full price
What I hadn't realised is that the original Mac itself was announced at the 84 event - or it's equivalent at that point - but I think we can let the annual synopsis on the wikipedia page fill in the annual details from there for anyone who wants to know them. It's a bit arcane in the context of the thread at any rate.
Hard disagree .
iPad launch event has nothing to do with WWDC , the event was scheduled for March but it was constantly delayed because of production issues .
WWDC is a 2 hour long event and with iPads the event would have easily stretched to 3 hours
in the last 4 events , 3 of them had some Mac hardware announcement , the only one that didn’t have one was 2021 and that was squarely because of covid
That is just spinster speculation. It could have been planned for roughly this time of year all along. It is helpful for decreasing the amount of WWDC discussion so that they can focus more on iOS/IPadOS operating system changes with no associated iPhone/iPad hardware announcements, and we can see them more focused on the other OS, in particular MacOS which can reap the largest advantages of additional AI specific additions. AI can be energy and RAM intensive. Then you have the continued pitching/development with AVP and VisionOS.
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